Shortest win price
The Flying Popov (5)
2.45
Ballarat hosts a Benchmark 62 over 1600 metres on a GOOD3 track in fine conditions at 7:00 pm AEDT. The Flying Popov sits shortest in the market, with Mister Martini and Aubaine next in line. The Flying Popov brings a profitable trainer in C J Waller — the stable is striking at 21 per cent over their last hundred runners — and the form suggests a real chance stepping up in distance. Last start at Pakenham over 1400 metres ended a modest fifth, and Cranbourne before that showed work to do over 1200m. The rater at 89 thinks there's plenty here in this company. Mister Martini looked sharp when just missing at Ballarat nine days ago, going down by the barest margin over 1400 metres, and the Hawkes outfit is genuinely red-hot, outperforming market expectations by 32 per cent. Luke Currie's partnership with the yard is punching hard too — up 90 per cent on projected returns. That last start at Morphettville over this trip tells a flat story though, but the Ballarat run before it jumps off the page.
Aubaine shapes as interesting despite a rider change to Linda Meech. The form is genuinely hard to knock: second at Kyneton last start by just a neck over 1479 metres, and the comment reads well — looked every chance but had a real fight and just missed. Rating of 83 backs that up. Barrier one gives gate speed, and the sectionals suggest a hard early run, which suits the racing pattern here. Celestial Splendor has just returned from four weeks out and landed a commanding win at Kilmore over this exact distance — 1607 metres — in impressive midfield fashion. That was at BM56 level, and the class step up is real, but a best-ever sectional finish last start and recent 16 per cent boost in strike rate with Dean Yendall hints at confidence. The Flying Popov also maps well for this track, outperforming expectations by 8 per cent, and the third-up record reads 2: 1-0-0, so hitting that sweet spot matters.
Three leaders — Tempt The Gods, Blindato, and Aubaine — will fight for the front early. The numbers say Tempt The Gods and Blindato both go hard early, but Tempt The Gods carries a jockey underperforming market expectations by 43 per cent, which is a real concern at this price. Blindato's recent form is tight, just four runs recorded, though Neil Farley books in at 31 per cent above market expected. The Flying Popov sits offmidfield with a strong stayer's profile and the numbers to support. Mister Martini's recent heat in this yard and that near-miss at the track make him an underrated alternative. Celestial Splendor's Kilmore win and strong finisher tag offer a different angle. Aubaine, despite the rider change, brings genuine closing form and a gate that could let her find room in the run.
Shortest win price
The Flying Popov (5)
2.45
Most career wins
Tempt The Gods
3-1-4 from 15 starts
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offmidfield
Midfield
Leader
Rogan · Negative
Trainer SR
Clifford I Brown striking at just 5%
Tempt The Gods · Negative
Rider Poor SR
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 43% in L100 rides
Our Smokeshow · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
The Flying Popov · Positive
Profitable Trainer
Stable runners going at 21% POT in L100 Runners
Career
16: 2-0-1
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
5: 0-0-0
Second-up
3: 1-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Track Kilmore
1: 1-0-0
Track Mornington
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2000m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
12: 2-0-1
Going Soft
4: 0-0-0
Trainer SR
Negative
Clifford I Brown striking at just 5%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 38%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 48% Profit on Turnover
Awkward Draw
Negative
Would have liked a better draw
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Ridden back, battled home without threatening at Cranbourne off spell. Will be fitter and more effective second-up. Could get into the placings.
ILB
Struggled when 7th last run at Cranbourne. Giving another chance here. Possesses very good closing speed. The large claim from Chelsea Thompson should help. Great chance.
RP
Not disgraced when seventh (Cranbourne) last month; if replicating best previous efforts ought to be in the mix.
RSIS
Lacked competitiveness when 7th last run at Cranbourne. Happy to overlook that run. Expected to be flashing home. Large claim helps. Great chance.
Career
15: 3-1-4
Rating · IRD
87
Speed map
Leader
First-up
4: 0-0-1
Second-up
3: 1-0-1
Third-up
3: 2-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Bordertown
1: 1-0-0
Track Sandown
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
3: 1-1-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
2: 1-0-1
Going Good
5: 0-1-3
Going Heavy
3: 2-0-0
Going Soft
7: 1-0-1
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 43% in L100 rides
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Fought bravely to the wire in the 3yo+ (Bm62) at Kyneton. Leads, handy. Been competitive this level. Not out of this.
ILB
Ran well when 3rd last run at Kyneton. Has early speed and positions nicely. In fine form this preparation. Respect the betting.
RP
Possesses winning form at this track; admirably consistent; split Aubaine and Our Smokeshow when third last month over 7½f (handicap) at Kyneton; strong claims if building on last performance.
RSIS
Nice run when 3rd last run at Kyneton. Has shown early pace in races to date. Exhibiting good form lately. Has some claims.
Career
23: 2-7-2
Rating · IRD
73
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
4: 0-2-0
Second-up
3: 1-0-2
Third-up
3: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Trentham
1: 0-0-0
Track Eagle Farm
3: 0-0-1
Track Pukekohe
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
7: 0-4-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-1-0
Going Soft
9: 1-2-2
Going Good
12: 1-4-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 8%
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Third run now in new stable/region. Long losing streak. Battled home okay at Kyneton. Leaning towards others here.
ILB
At $41.00 average effort when 7th last time at Kyneton. Hard to entertain.
RP
Quite a while since he tasted success; not disgraced when seventh at Kyneton over 7½f (handicap) last month; this looks a fair heat so others make more appeal.
RSIS
Started 40/1 and tailed off when 7th last start at Kyneton.
Career
21: 3-2-4
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
4: 1-0-0
Second-up
3: 0-0-0
Third-up
3: 0-1-2
Fourth-up
3: 0-1-0
Track Seymour
2: 0-0-1
Track Kyneton
2: 0-0-2
Track Ballarat Synthetic
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1425m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1454m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1600m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
17: 1-2-4
Going Soft
3: 1-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 1-0-0
Trainer SR
Negative
Nigel Blackiston striking at just 7%
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 27%
Wide Draw
Negative
Likely to get caught wide
Improver
Positive
Poised to improve on recent form here
AAP
Freshened. Showed a fine turn of foot from the back this venue. Again one for multiples.
ILB
Rattled home nicely into 3rd beaten by 1L last start at this venue. In strong racing shape since returning from a spell.
RP
Creditable effort to finish third here over 7f (handicap, split Mister Martini and Our Smokeshow) last month; has winning track form.
RSIS
Improved to place when 3rd beaten by 1L last run around here. In a purple patch of form since returning from a break.
Career
9: 1-1-0
Rating · IRD
87
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Geelong
3: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
3: 0-1-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1429m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
7: 1-1-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 21% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 8%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Ran on okay without troubling at Pakenham. Should appreciate stepping up in distance. Right in the mix.
ILB
Started $3.10 and improved late to finish 5th last run at Pakenham. Not at all out of this race.
RP
Ran a bit below expectations (sent off 85-40) when fifth over 7f at Pakenham (handicap) last month; a few throw outs since his success in a maiden at Seymour in February; this line-up contains some strong opposition so easy to oppose.
RSIS
Was 11/5 and picked up some ground to run 5th last time at Pakenham. Respect the betting.
Career
4: 1-1-0
Rating · IRD
95
Speed map
Leader
First-up
1: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Morphettville
1: 0-0-0
Track Donald
1: 1-0-0
Track Murray Bridge
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1550m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1620m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1800m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 1-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-1-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 25% better than Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Positive
Neil Farley 31% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -59% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 8% POT in L100 Runners
Key Jockey
Positive
Neil Farley winning at 17% POT in last 100 rides
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 8%
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
AAP
Second campaign (18-weeks). One for exotics fresh in this affair.
ILB
First up from a break of 18 weeks and made no mistakes when winning by 3 1/2L first up last preparation at Donald. Has a nice turn of foot. Definite claims for punters.
RP
Out of the frame when seventh at Murray Bridge Gh over 1m1f (handicap) in July; few miles on the clock with this his fifth race; has had some time off; is not ruled out if replicating the best of his form.
RSIS
Resuming and was dominant when winning by a margin of 3 1/2L resuming last preparation at Donald. Has a great burst of pace late. Strong claims.
Career
8: 1-3-0
Rating · IRD
82
Speed map
Leader
First-up
2: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat Synthetic
1: 1-0-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1600m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 0-1-0
Going Synthetic
3: 1-2-0
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 1
Better for last start
Positive
Improved with last few runs
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Form hard to knock. Looked likely but had a real fight on his hands and just missed at Kyneton. Good gate speed, soft draw. Makes a strong case in this company.
ILB
Just missed last run at Kyneton and gets the perfect barrier. Should come to hand quickly. Exhibiting good form this campaign. Could feature here.
RP
Missed out by a head over 7½f at Kyneton (handicap) three weeks ago with two of these rivals behind; track has proven suitable before.
RSIS
Close to claiming the win last time at Kyneton and gets the perfect draw. Displays good tactical pace. In good order recently. Could feature here.
Career
8: 1-1-1
Rating · IRD
85
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
3: 0-0-1
Second-up
2: 1-1-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-1-0
Track Morphettville
1: 0-0-0
Track Canterbury
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1250m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
2: 1-1-0
Going Good
7: 1-1-1
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 90%
Trainer Form
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectations 32%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 19% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 8%
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Just missed at Ballarat 9 Oct. Went home tamely at Morphettville over this trip at $6.50. Big show.
ILB
Odds of $6.50 and ran 8th last run at Morphettville. Should be swooping on the field late. Not without a chance.
RP
Not disgraced when eighth of 12 (Morphettville) two weeks ago; a lot on his plate here and unlikely to do better than a supporting role.
RSIS
At 11/2 finished 8th last time at Morphettville. Possesses very good closing pace. Watch betting.
Career
5: 1-1-1
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Kilmore
2: 0-1-1
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-0
Track Werribee
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1856m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
3: 0-1-0
Going Soft
2: 1-0-1
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Awkward Draw
Negative
May find this draw awkward
Back in Dist
Negative
Dropping back to a less suitable distance range
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Fronting up for second campaign (28-weeks). Wasn't all that far away in his first prep. Awkwardly drawn for return. Capable of making an impact fresh in this line-up.
ILB
Fresh from a 28 week spell. Started at $12.00 and came in 6th last run at Werribee and back in trip. Might have to make up considerable ground. Overlook from a betting angle.
RP
Out of the frame (beaten just over 3l in sixth) at Werribee in April upped to 1m3f; returns from a break today; others more likely.
RSIS
First run back after a break of 28 weeks. At 11/1 came in 6th last start at Werribee and back to a shorter trip. Likely to get back.
Career
8: 2-0-0
Rating · IRD
82
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Kilmore
1: 1-0-0
Track Warrnambool
1: 1-0-0
Track Sandown
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1607m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
5: 2-0-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 16% better than Career Avg.
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are under performing market expectations by -26%
Margin LS
Positive
Won by a big margin last start
Awkward Draw
Negative
Would have liked a better draw
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
4 weeks since last run. Imposing win from midfield in the 3yo+ (Bm56) at Kilmore. Can make her presence felt again.
ILB
Won by a big margin of 3L last run at Kilmore but matched against tougher rivals. Getting better in recent performances. Can't leave out of your calculations.
RP
Came out on top by 3l last month (Kilmore) upped to this trip; easy to see her making an impression.
RSIS
Pulled away to win by 3L last run at Kilmore but competing in a higher grade. Getting better in recent performances. Can't leave out of your calculations.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Midfield
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Weight Rise
Negative
Carrying 4kg more than LS
AAP
Tailed off a long last at Bendigo over this trip. Look for a better showing.
ILB
Was $5.00 and folded up in the straight when 12th last start at Bendigo and going up in weight.
RSIS
Started 4/1 and gave away some ground when 12th last start at Bendigo and will have to carry more weight.
Career
13: 2-0-1
Rating · IRD
78
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Kilmore
2: 1-0-0
Track Mornington
1: 0-0-0
Track Wangaratta
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1411m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 1-0-1
Going Good
8: 1-0-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature
AAP
Failed to threaten (wide draw) at Wangaratta at longer odds. Prefer away from heavy. Not fancied.
ILB
Ordinary performance when 11th last time at Wangaratta but can find a nice position from the draw. Facing formidable opponents. Dropping weight.
RP
Towards the rear of 14 (Wangaratta) last month.
RSIS
Moderate showing when 11th last time at Wangaratta but can find a nice position from the draw. Racing in stronger company. Carrying less weight this time.