Ballarat (VIC) horses tips & previews

15 Nov, 3:57 am AEDT

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Ballarat (VIC), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Wed 11 Nov, 11:00 am AEDT

Meetings · Wed, 11 NovBallarat (VIC)Change

Race 5 — Brandt - Emerging Stars Series Heat 7 Mdn Plate 1200m · jumps Wed 11 Nov, 6:00 pm AEDT

Race preview

Ballarat hosts a competitive 1200m Maiden Plate on a Good 4 track with fine weather overhead for this Emerging Stars Series Heat. The win market points to De Niro holding sway at the head of betting, closely followed by Gamadale Paddy, Blackbelt, and Lavancher as the early elect. The numbers say this race features a mix of sharp debutants and exposed maidens looking to break through.

De Niro jumps off the page representing the Ben, Will and JD Hayes stable, with Damian Lane taking the steer from barrier 2. Out of a Group 3-winning mare, this debutant arrives with a 96 rating after showing plenty at the jump-outs. Gamadale Paddy rates a real chance for Taige Weir off the back of a gallant third at Swan Hill over this 1200m trip, bringing solid form lines and a rating of 99 into the mix.

Keep an eye on Blackbelt for the Hawkes stable, who is well drawn down low in barrier 1 after two useful Rosehill barrier trials. Lavancher also maps on pace for Julius Sandhu after flashing early improvement with a strong third at Mornington over 1200m. The speed map suggests an honest tempo with leaders like Enniscrone and Fort Of Dreams pushing forward, setting things up nicely for a backmarker or on-pace runner to strike late.

Race notes

3-5yo,3Y-5Y MDN SW,MDN-SW,Maiden
GOOD4
Fine
10 runners

Shortest win price

De Niro (7)

2.00

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Firststart

6Blackbelt
7De Niro

Backmarker

1Brilliant Bull Ant

Midfield

5Soundwave
13My Infinity

Offpace

8Gamadale Paddy

Onpace

3Fort Of Dreams
9Lavancher
4Hard Hitter

Leader

12Enniscrone

Brilliant Bull Ant · Negative
Trainer Recent
Camp struggling with S/R just 4%
Fort Of Dreams · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -30% POT in their L100 Races
Hard Hitter · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 25% better than Career Avg.
Soundwave · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 17% in Last 100 Rides

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace

1Brilliant Bull AntJ: Teodore Nugent·T: Olivia Osborne759.5kg2 2 9 6 419: 0-5-0$23.00$3.70

Career

19: 0-5-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer40%
Jockey/Trainer Combo40%
Early Speed20%
Rating60%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Seymour
1: 0-0-0
Track Kerang
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat Synthetic
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
5: 0-3-0
Distance 1300m
5: 0-2-0
Distance 1400m
3: 0-0-0
Going Good
8: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
4: 0-0-0
Going Soft
6: 0-3-0

Last starts

4Wangaratta1300m3 Nov 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · SOFT53.4L
6Wangaratta1300m26 Oct 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD44.05L
9Seymour1600m11 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT510.01L
2Bendigo1300m4 Oct 2026 · 4UP MDN-SW · SOFT62L
2Ballarat1200m18 Sept 2026 · 3UP C · GOOD40.5L
2Bendigo1300m6 Sept 2026 · 4yo+ · SOFT50.2L
6Wagga1400m27 Aug 2026 · MDN · HEAVY107.1L
6Wodonga1400m17 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · HEAVY812L

Insights

Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 4%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -20% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 38%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 8%
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Improver
Positive
Poised to improve on recent form here
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Battled home okay in soft going at Wangaratta. Game second only other time over this track and distance. Deep into his campaign, only for the minors here.

ILB

On a quick turnaround. Started $3.80 and outpaced some runners late when 4th last start at Wangaratta. Yet to break through after 19 runs. Needs significant improvement.

Consistency hasn't been his strong suit and yet to get off the mark and losing run stands at 19; not disgraced in fourth over 6½f at Wangaratta (maiden) last Tuesday; this looks a fair heat so others appeal more.

RSIS

On a short back up. Started 11/4 and improved late to finish 4th last start at Wangaratta. Yet to break maiden status after 19 starts. Likely to get back.

2Fear The ImpactScratched6––––

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offmidfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed80%
Rating60%
Closing Speed80%

Insights

Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start

Comments

AAP

First-up (22-weeks). Just missed in Maiden company at Pakenham first-up last campaign. Not out of it fresh in this company.

ILB

First up. Amongst the placegetters when 3rd last time at Sale on a heavy rated track and getting better in recent performances.

Not beaten too far when third over 7f at Sale (maiden) in June; seems to have stepped up on previous form the last twice; returns from a break here.

RSIS

First run back. Good effort to run 3rd beaten by 4 1/4L last start at Sale and form has been improving over recent runs.

3Fort Of DreamsJ: Zac Spain·T: M Price & M Kent Jnr859.5kg10 8 3 5 28: 0-1-3$9.00$2.35

Career

8: 0-1-3

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo40%
Early Speed100%
Rating100%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Seymour
1: 0-0-1
Track Stony Creek
1: 0-0-1
Track Moe
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
1: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-1
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

2Cranbourne1200m16 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD31L
5Ballarat Synthetic1400m9 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · SYNTHETIC4.9L
3Sale1400m26 July 2026 · 2yo+ · SOFT62.5L
8Geelong1243m10 July 2026 · 2UP MDN-SW · HEAVY87.2L
10Sale1400m1 Feb 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD44.7L
3Seymour1300m15 Jan 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD31L
3Stony Creek1100m30 Dec 2025 · 3Y MDN-SW · GOOD44.8L
5Moe1000m14 Dec 2025 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD43.9L

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -30% POT in their L100 Races
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 10%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Improver
Positive
Poised to improve on recent form here

Comments

AAP

Close to landing one. Courageous effort in the 3yo+ Mdn Plate at Cranbourne over this distance. Rates highly in this affair.

ILB

Hit the line well when 2nd beaten by 1L last run at Cranbourne. Has the early speed to burn across from the wide draw. One of the punters top hopes at a very generous price.

Good effort when 1l second at Cranbourne last month; has displayed improved form on last two starts but still winless and defeats stacking up (eight on the bounce).

RSIS

Caught the eye when 2nd beaten by 1L last run at Cranbourne. Should be rolling forward early from the wide stall. Competitive type.

4Hard HitterJ: Neil Farley·T: Andrew Noblet459.5kg5 4 7 7 35: 0-0-1$51.00$5.00

Career

5: 0-0-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
Early Speed20%
Rating60%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-1
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Track Terang
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
4: 0-0-1
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

3Horsham1100m18 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD35.75L
7Ballarat1200m14 Feb 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD44.9L
7Camperdown1400m17 Jan 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD34.2L
4Terang1200m2 Jan 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · GOOD32.3L
5Dunkeld1000m15 Nov 2025 · 3Y MDN-SW · SOFT66.1L

Insights

Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 25% better than Career Avg.
Key Jockey
Positive
Neil Farley winning at 17% POT in last 100 rides
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Found line with purpose behind dominant winner at Horsham off long break. Encouraging latest but this looks tougher.

ILB

Flashed home late into 3rd last start at Horsham. Appears tested.

Stepped up on his last two starts; well beaten third over 5½f at Horsham (maiden) three weeks ago.

RSIS

Finished with intent when 3rd last time at Horsham.

5SoundwaveJ: Brad Rawiller·T: E & D Browne959.5kg3 2 4 2 37: 0-3-2$13.00$2.90

Career

7: 0-3-2

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating100%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
2: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Hamilton
1: 0-1-0
Track Ruakaka
1: 0-1-0
Track Cambridge Synthetic
2: 0-0-1
Distance 970m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-1-0
Going Soft
1: 0-1-0
Going Synthetic
5: 0-1-2

Last starts

3Pakenham Synthetic1400m20 July 2026 · 2yo+ · SYNTHETIC2.6L
2Pakenham Synthetic1400m29 June 2026 · MDN-SW · SYNTHETIC1.3L
4Pakenham Synthetic1200m15 June 2026 · 2UP MDN-SW · SYNTHETIC2.3L
2Hamilton1200m26 May 2026 · 2UP MDN SW · HEAVY103.5L
3Cambridge Synthetic1300m20 Aug 2025 · MDN · SYNTHETIC3.5L
2Ruakaka1100m2 Aug 2025 · 3YO SW+P · SOFT50.8L
6Cambridge Synthetic970m23 July 2025 · MAAT · SYNTHETIC2.2L

Insights

Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 17% in Last 100 Rides
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Drawn Poorly
Negative
Unfavourable barrier draw
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

First-up (16-weeks). In the minors at Hamilton first-up last campaign. Only for exotics.

ILB

Resuming after a spell. Rattled home nicely into 3rd beaten by just over 2 1/2L last run at Pakenham Synthetic. Will be there at the business end.

Has raised his game the last twice; was on the premises (third, beaten 2½l) over 7f at Pakenham (maiden) four months ago; makes limited appeal as regularly been coming up a bit short lately.

RSIS

Fresh after a break. Caught the eye when 3rd last run at Pakenham Synthetic. Gets a solid chance here.

6BlackbeltJ: Jordan Childs·T: M, W & J Hawkes158kg2 7$8.50$2.35

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed50%
Rating80%
Closing Speed50%

Last starts

7Rosehill900m30 June 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(7)4.1L
2Rosehill900m19 June 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)0.2L

Insights

Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 19% POT in L100 Runners
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
First Starter
Positive
Not raced previously

Comments

AAP

Trials (2:0-1-0). Out of an unraced full sister to the stakes winner Sword Fighter. Prepared with two Rosehill trials. Benefit of decent alley. Should be highly competitive.

ILB

3yo debutant sired by Wootton Bassett for Michael, Wayne And John Hawkes and drawn the rails. Watch the market.

Sire capable of producing high class offspring; yard has a good record with newcomers; strong claims with signs of encouragement in profile.

RSIS

3yo first starter by Wootton Bassett for Michael, Wayne And John Hawkes and can save some energy from the draw. Watch for a sign in the market.

7De NiroJ: Damian Lane·T: Ben, Will & Jd Hayes258kg4$2.00$1.12

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
Early Speed50%
Rating80%
Closing Speed50%

Last starts

4Caulfield Heath800m14 May 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)4.3L

Insights

Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 26% POT in L100 Runners
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 2
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
On Debut
Positive
First race start

Comments

AAP

Trials (1:0-0-0). Out of a Group 3-winning mare. 4th & 2nd at latest jump-outs. Damian Lane rides. Shouldn't be overlooked on debut.

ILB

Career debut 3yo by I Am Invincible for trainer Will Ben & Jd Hayes and will try to take advantage of the alley. Watch early betting.

There's hope from the pedigree that he has some ability; yard excels with debutants here; gelded already; he's an attractive contender as some good aspects to his profile.

RSIS

Will Ben & Jd Hayes 3yo by I Am Invincible having first race appearance and has a good draw. Market as guide.

8Gamadale PaddyJ: Cian Macredmond·T: Taige Weir358kg9 2 33: 0-1-1$4.00$1.38

Career

3: 0-1-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed20%
Rating100%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
2: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Warrnambool
1: 0-0-0
Track Swan Hill
1: 0-0-1
Track Mildura
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
3: 0-1-1
Going Good
2: 0-1-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

3Swan Hill1200m27 Oct 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD41.35L
2Mildura1200m6 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD41.25L
9Warrnambool1200m6 May 2026 · 2Y HCP · HEAVY109.8L

Insights

Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 43% in L100 rides
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Gallant display at Swan Hill when second-up. Drawn for softer run. Key contender.

ILB

Was amongst the placegetters when 3rd last time at Swan Hill and good career start. Has run into the money 2 from 2 attempts this preparation. Strong prospects in this race.

Beaten into third when 11-4 (Swan Hill) 15 days ago; without a win in three attempts although has finished second; the trainer is going well.

RSIS

Ran on strongly when 3rd last time at Swan Hill and showing consistent performance in races. Has run into the money 2 from 2 attempts of late. Expect a forward showing.

9LavancherJ: Beau Mertens·T: Julius Sandhu658kg7 32: 0-0-1$11.00$2.65

Career

2: 0-0-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
Early Speed20%
Rating80%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Mornington
1: 0-0-1
Track Seymour
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-1
Going Good
1: 0-0-1
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

3Mornington1200m1 Nov 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD40.61L
7Seymour1200m11 Oct 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · SOFT57.2L

Insights

Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 6%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 23%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start

Comments

AAP

Early form encouraging. Finished in hot pursuit at Mornington at his second race start. Among the dangers again.

ILB

Put in a competitive run when placing 3rd last start at Mornington. Should muster plenty of early speed. Solid chance.

Good effort when close up at Mornington ten days ago; just his third outing so still early days; can be on the premises.

RSIS

Came on strongly to finish 3rd when beaten by 1/2L last run at Mornington. Should jump out and bowl along. Strong prospects.

10PiperineScratched12––––

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo40%
Early Speed20%
Rating50%
Closing Speed80%

Insights

Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 21% better than Career Avg.
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 7%
Key Rider
Positive
Blake Shinn 22% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -29% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 28%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Back for second campaign (36-weeks). Wasn't all that far from the action on debut at Sale as a betting firmer. 5th & 1st at recent jump-outs. Sound claims fresh in this company.

ILB

Racing fresh today after a break of 36 weeks. Displayed good finishing speed when 2nd beaten by 1 1/4L last time at Sale and having second career run.

RSIS

First run back after a break of 36 weeks. Picked up late ground when 2nd last time at Sale and was a debutant last start.

11CelestariaScratched10––––

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed20%
Rating50%
Closing Speed100%

Insights

Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 6%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 25%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start

Comments

AAP

Okay at latest when settled back. Sharper now, not out of it.

ILB

Was $5.50 and finished 7th last start at Warrnambool.

RSIS

Started 9/2 and finished 7th last start at Warrnambool.

12EnniscroneJ: Alana Kelly·T: D J Cannon559.5kg7 12 3 5 915: 0-1-1$126.00$11.00

Career

15: 0-1-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed20%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
2: 0-0-0
Track Stawell
2: 0-0-0
Track Mount Gambier
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1000m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1207m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
11: 0-1-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-0

Last starts

9Warrnambool1200m29 Oct 2026 · 3-5Y MDN SW · GOOD45.43L
5Hamilton1100m10 Oct 2026 · 4yo+ · SOFT53.2L
3Warrnambool1000m21 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD40.26L
12Stawell1600m18 May 2026 · 2UP MDN-SW · HEAVY923.1L
7Geelong1543m1 May 2026 · 2UP MDN-SW · GOOD412L
7Stawell1307m17 Apr 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD44.3L
5Kyneton1208m28 Mar 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · SOFT54.4L
2Mount Gambier1211m13 Mar 2026 · 2UP MDN-SW · GOOD41.1L

Insights

Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 18% in Last 100 Rides
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 2%
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 43%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 60%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 60% Profit on Turnover
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out

Comments

AAP

Sent forward but flat-footed when things got serious at Warrnambool over this trip. Has early speed. Others with greater appeal.

ILB

At $71.00 didn't attack the line when 9th last start at Warrnambool. Expecting to settle positively. A 15 start maiden. Prefer in something weaker.

Ninth of 12 (Warrnambool) last month.

RSIS

Started 70/1 and struggled with the pace when 9th last time at Warrnambool. Has plenty of early pace. Still a maiden after 15 runs.

13My InfinityJ: Toby Atkinson·T: Ms M Cunningham1057.5kg71: 0-0-0$71.00$6.50

Career

1: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed20%
Rating20%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

7Ballarat1000m23 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD44.16L

Insights

Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Wide Draw
Negative
Likely to get caught wide
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Had no answers when the pressure went on this venue debut as an outsider 23 Oct. Locally trained but awkwardly drawn and up in weight. Prefer others.

ILB

At $41.00 not in contention when 7th last time at this venue but was a debutant last start. Making up the numbers.

Not disgraced (beaten just over 4l) on her debut running here over 5f at 40-1 three weeks ago; entitled to have come on for that run.

RSIS

Started at 40/1 and looked flat when 7th last start here but having second career run.

Odds correct as at Wed 11 Nov, 6:10 pm AEDT. Odds can change.

Past meetings

Mon 2 Nov, 11:00 am AEDT · 8 races
Fri 23 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 9 races
Fri 9 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 10 races
Wed 30 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 8 races
Fri 18 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 9 races