Shortest win price
Storming Home (13)
3.00
Welcome to Eagle Farm for race five on the card, the Ladbrokes Place Extra Hcp (C2) over 1400m on a Soft 5 track under overcast skies. The jump is locked in for 2:17 pm AEDT. Looking at the win market order, Breakout sits right at the top of the betting, closely followed by Storming Home, Monotone, and Keep It Real rounding out the early fancies.
The numbers jump off the page when we look deeper into the form for these leading contenders. Keep It Real comes in for J W Healy with Michael Rodd steering from barrier four, boasting a solid career record of twelve starts for two wins and four placings, and arrives here fresh off a gritty win over 1200m at this venue where the runner mowed them down late on a tight rein. Storming Home steps out for trainer Jack Bruce from barrier three with Ben E Thompson in the saddle, having previously cleared maiden ranks at Eagle Farm before putting in some good work late over this course second-up, which has this runner rating highly.
Digging further into the pack, Monotone draws barrier two for Taylor Marshall and Jack Bruce, bringing a rating of 94 off a strong effort responding well from the back half to get the prize over this track and distance. Breakout is drawn out in barrier seven for Annabel and Rob Archibald with Martin Harley aboard, coming off a determined first-up victory at Beaumont with a liking for the sting out of the ground. With speed maps showing Swing State taking up the early lead and runners like Pearls In June and Keep It Real pushing off pace, this 1400m class two sets up as a fascinating contest where several runners rate a real chance.
Shortest win price
Storming Home (13)
3.00
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offmidfield
Midfield
Offpace
Leader
Keep It Real · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are out performing market expectations by 81%
Swing State · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 29% better than Career Avg.
Monotone · Positive
Profitable Trainer
Stable runners going at 24% POT in L100 Runners
Pearls In June · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are out performing market expectations by 99%
Rating · IRD
76
Speed map
Leader
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 19%
AAP
Let-up (50-days). Ex G Waterhouse & A Bott in NSW. On pace but soon under pressure and he knocked up badly at Warwick Farm. Can make a positive start for new trainer.
ILB
Back from a freshen up. Started $4.80 and gave away some ground when 10th last run at Warwick Farm. Has early speed and positions nicely. Marginal chance.
RSIS
Freshened up. Odds of 4/1 and was well beaten when 10th last run at Warwick Farm. Racing for a new trainer. Has plenty of early pace.
Career
12: 2-4-2
Rating · IRD
85
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
3: 0-3-0
Second-up
2: 1-0-0
Third-up
2: 1-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Sandown
2: 0-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
1: 1-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
3: 0-3-0
Distance 1140m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
8: 1-3-1
Going Soft
4: 1-1-1
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 81%
Hot Trainer
Positive
James Healy in good form, out performing market 35%
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
On a tight rein and mowed them down late in (Bm68) this venue. Sterner test here but can't rule out.
ILB
Finished well when winning last start at the track. Michael Rodd and James Healy have achieved a lot of success as a team. In good condition this campaign. Has some claims.
RSIS
Finished with purpose when winning last start at the track. Jockey Michael Rodd is in form for this stable. Running with confidence of late. Watch the betting.
Career
9: 2-1-3
Rating · IRD
76
Speed map
Leader
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Gold Coast
1: 0-1-0
Track Hawkesbury
1: 0-0-1
Track Ipswich
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1650m
1: 0-0-1
Going Soft
3: 1-1-1
Going Good
6: 1-0-2
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 29% better than Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Positive
Andrew Mallyon 28% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Key Jockey
Positive
Andrew Mallyon winning at 20% POT in last 100 rides
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Up In Dist
Positive
Racing at a more suitable distance
Track Stats
Positive
Excels at this track
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
AAP
First-up (17-weeks). Trialed up super at Gold Coast Poly 29 Oct. Faces a solid line-up.
ILB
Fresh from a spell. Displayed good finishing speed when 3rd beaten by almost 5 1/2L last time at Grafton and up against a less competitive field. Rises in weight. Not hopeless.
RSIS
Resumes after a break. Managed to place 3rd last start at Grafton and up against a less challenging field. Likely to be well placed early.
Rating · IRD
94
Speed map
Offmidfield
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 24% POT in L100 Runners
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 2
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Responded well from back half to get the prize this track over this distance. Can again play a role.
ILB
Flew home to win last start at this venue and will try to take advantage of the barrier. Has very good finishing speed. Racing consistently this campaign. Forward showing expected.
RSIS
Bold effort when winning last time at this venue and has a positive stall. Tracking very well in recent runs. Likes the cut in the ground with 1 win. Gets a chance against these.
Career
12: 2-3-1
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
4: 0-2-0
Second-up
3: 1-1-0
Third-up
2: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-1
Track Flemington
2: 0-0-1
Track Pakenham
2: 1-1-0
Track Canterbury
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1212m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1250m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
8: 1-2-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-1
Going Soft
3: 1-1-0
AAP
Ran on okay without troubling at Doomben. One for exotics.
ILB
At $7.50 weakened to finish 7th last start at Doomben.
RSIS
Was 13/2 and didn't attack the line when 7th last run at Doomben.
Career
12: 2-0-3
Rating · IRD
73
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
4: 1-0-2
Second-up
2: 1-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
3: 0-0-0
Track Doomben
6: 1-0-3
Track Gold Coast
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
3: 1-0-1
Distance 1350m
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
7: 1-0-2
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
4: 1-0-1
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 24% better than Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Positive
Daniel Moor 26% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 63%
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Got back and wasn't totally disgraced in rain affected going this track off long spell. Strips in better shape. Could get into the placings.
ILB
Started at $4.40 and hit the line well when 5th last start at the track. Marginal prospect.
RSIS
Started 10/3 and was making up some late ground when 5th last run at the track.
Career
9: 2-0-3
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
3: 1-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-2
Third-up
2: 1-0-0
Track Doomben
4: 0-0-1
Track Gold Coast
2: 1-0-0
Track Eagle Farm
3: 1-0-2
Distance 1110m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
5: 1-0-3
Distance 1350m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
6: 2-0-2
Going Soft
3: 0-0-1
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 99%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Gap In Runs
Negative
Not raced for 33 days
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
In Form
Positive
Racing in top form recently
AAP
4 weeks since last run. Consistent type with good figures. Really gutsy performance on the speed at Gold Coast over this trip. Tackling stronger now but can't discount.
ILB
Finished with purpose when winning last start at Gold Coast but up against stronger opponents. Has not missed the placings this preparation in 3 attempts. Definite claims.
RSIS
Charged home to win last run at Gold Coast but taking on stronger opponents. Has not missed the placings lately in 3 attempts. Great chance.
Career
8: 2-1-1
Rating · IRD
88
Speed map
Leader
First-up
2: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Doomben
1: 0-0-0
Track Gold Coast
1: 1-0-0
Track Ipswich
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1350m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
4: 2-1-0
Going Good
6: 2-1-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 19%
AAP
In touch but couldn't find anything when pressured at Sunshine Coast over this trip. Others carry more punch.
ILB
Was $6.50 and lost ground in the run home when 6th last start at Sunshine Coast but solid performer at this distance in the past. Watch betting.
RSIS
Started 11/2 and lost ground in the run home when 6th last start at Sunshine Coast on a heavy track but will be well suited at the distance. Has some claims.
Rating · IRD
91
Speed map
Midfield
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 86%
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Determined effort to secure victory at Beaumont first up. Likes the sting out. One for exotics.
ILB
Picked up late to win last time at Newcastle. Jockey Martin Harley and trainer Annabel Archibald & Rob Archibald form a formidable team. Good prospects.
RSIS
Charged home to win last start at Newcastle. Martin Harley and Annabel Archibald & Rob Archibald demand respect when they team up. Capable type.
Career
13: 2-3-2
Rating · IRD
73
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
3: 0-1-0
Second-up
2: 0-2-0
Third-up
2: 1-0-1
Fourth-up
2: 1-0-0
Track Doomben
2: 0-0-0
Track Ipswich
1: 1-0-0
Track Sunshine Coast
7: 1-2-2
Distance 1400m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
4: 0-3-0
Distance 1100m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
7: 1-2-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
5: 1-1-1
Improved L/S
Positive
Improved again last start
AAP
On speed, had enough in the tank for the minors 3yo+ Plate (C3) at Sunshine Coast over this distance. Has early speed. Shapes as a rough place prospect.
ILB
Was in the race for a long way when 3rd last run at Sunshine Coast. Has the early speed to burn across from the wide draw. Watch the betting.
RSIS
Put together a strong on-pace performance when 3rd last run at Sunshine Coast. Should be rolling forward early from the wide stall.
Career
10: 1-3-4
Rating · IRD
85
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
2: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
2: 1-0-1
Track Doomben
5: 0-2-1
Track Gold Coast
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1350m
2: 0-1-1
Distance 1400m
2: 1-0-1
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
7: 1-2-2
Going Soft
3: 0-1-2
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 8%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 29%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 30% Profit on Turnover
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Form At Track
Positive
1 time winner here at Eagle Farm
AAP
Thereabouts of late. Solid rally into the placings in rain affected going this venue. Only win to date was this distance. Can play a role.
ILB
Did well to run into 3rd last time at the track and can save some energy from the draw. Performing impressively this campaign. Likely to get back. Betting is the best guide.
RSIS
Improved to place when 3rd last start at the track and drawn the rails. Performing impressively since resuming from a break. Might have to make up considerable ground. Could be in the mix.
Rating · IRD
88
Speed map
Offmidfield
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 13% POT in L100 Runners
Awkward Draw
Negative
Would have liked a better draw
Long Break
Negative
Resumes from a 410 day break (> 300 days)
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Resuming after a (58-weeks) spell. First run across the ditch for new stable. Ex Bill Thurlow and Sam O'Malley in New Zealand. Brought to race fitness with 5 trials.
ILB
First up from a break of 58 weeks. Displayed a good turn of foot when winning last time at Waverley and was a debutant last start. Racing in stronger company. Not at all out of this race.
RSIS
Fresh from a break of 58 weeks. Strong effort to the line to win last time at Waverley and having second career run. First appearance for a new trainer. Could feature here.
Rating · IRD
88
Speed map
Offpace
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 22% in Last 100 Rides
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 24% POT in L100 Runners
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Steps out for third run new stable/region. Cleared maiden ranks at Eagle Farm 14 Oct. Put in some good work late this course second-up. Rates highly.
ILB
Jumped at $3.60 and improved late to finish 4th last start at this track. Can't leave out of your calculations.
RSIS
Started 13/5 and showed some merit late when 4th last run at this venue. Watch for a sign in the market.