Ballarat (VIC) horses tips & previews

15 Nov, 3:47 am AEDT

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Ballarat (VIC), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Wed 11 Nov, 11:00 am AEDT

Meetings · Wed, 11 NovBallarat (VIC)Change

Race 2 — Evergreen Turf Hcp (C1) 1000m · jumps Wed 11 Nov, 4:15 pm AEDT

Race preview

Ballarat kicks off the card at 4:15 pm AEDT with a tight Class 1 sprint over 1000 metres on Good 4 going. The win market is ordered by Farmelia, Dynamite Dancer, Lucifer's Girl and Regina Dei Re at the shorter odds. Farmelia leads the betting after winning at this distance first-up last campaign and rates highest in the IRD rankings at 100. Dynamite Dancer is next, though the jockey–trainer combo has lost 35 per cent POT in their last 100 races. Lucifer's Girl follows, returning to the track after a career-debut win at Penola where she defeated the field by nearly eight lengths.

Villa Capitalista won last start and boasts the fastest overall finishing sectionals that day — a genuine strength for a 1000-metre sprint. Declan Bates has the mount and the form reads 5-5-3-1 over the last ten, suggesting consistency into a decent field. Lucifer's Girl's maiden victory was eye-catching and she gets a 2kg concession on debut for the P A Preusker and Shayleigh Ingelse combination. Ingelse is firing at 81 per cent ROI above career average over the last 100, and the jockey–trainer pairing is outperforming market expectations by 114 per cent. Regina Dei Re won second-up last campaign and Brad Rawiller is 17 per cent better than career average in the saddle. The Ballarat record shows she's won there before, and the map suits her offpace position at this circuit.

Farmelia was sent out favourite after returning from a 21-week break and looks built for this. Early speed is an asset on this track, drawn in barrier 1 with Damian Lane aboard. The form swings on whether fitness and first-up timing favour Farmelia's metro pedigree, or whether either Lucifer's Girl's raw debut form or Villa Capitalista's recent finishing power have more to offer. Rates a real chance wide open.

Race notes

3UP CLASS 1 HCP,3yo+,CL1,Class 1
GOOD4
Fine
8 runners

Shortest win price

Farmelia (6)

2.75

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Backmarker

8Dame I Am

Offmidfield

9Ville De Lumiere

Midfield

1Villa Capitalista

Offpace

3Regina Dei Re
6Farmelia

Onpace

2Dynamite Dancer
7Lucifer's Girl

Leader

4Makarim

Villa Capitalista · Positive
Fast Finisher
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Dynamite Dancer · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 16% in Last 100 Rides
Regina Dei Re · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 17% in Last 100 Rides
Makarim · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 25% in Last 100 Rides

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace

1Villa CapitalistaJ: Declan Bates·T: Tom Dabernig459.5kg5 5 3 14: 1-0-1$12.00$2.60

Career

4: 1-0-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-1
Track Casterton
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1100m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-1
Going Soft
2: 1-0-0

Last starts

1Ararat1100m3 Mar 2026 · MDN-SW · SOFT7-1
3Ballarat1000m14 Feb 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD40.5L
5Donald1200m13 Sept 2025 · 3yo+ · GOOD33.8L
5Casterton1000m31 Aug 2025 · MDN-SW · SOFT75.8L

Insights

Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Winkers Off
Positive
Winkers coming off this start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Resuming (36-weeks). Just collared in Maiden company at Ballarat first-up last campaign. Declan Bates on again. Worth a look fresh in this line-up.

ILB

Back after break of 36 weeks. Rocketed home when winning last start at Ararat and demonstrating upward trajectory in recent races. Will be a difficult assignment.

Gained a first success at the fourth time of asking at Ararat over 5½f (maiden) when successful by 1l in March; Tom Dabernig's runners are going great guns at the moment; not discounted.

RSIS

First run back from a 36 week break. Flew home to win last start at Ararat and demonstrating upward trajectory in recent races.

2Dynamite DancerJ: Dean Yendall·T: M J Williams358.5kg1 2 4 7 36: 1-1-2$2.90$1.22

Career

6: 1-1-2

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating80%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
2: 0-1-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Track Warrnambool
3: 0-0-2
Track Horsham
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1100m
3: 1-0-1
Distance 1200m
1: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
3: 0-0-1
Going Soft
2: 1-0-1
Going Synthetic
1: 0-1-0

Last starts

3Warrnambool1100m20 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · HEAVY103.5L
7Warrnambool1100m23 July 2026 · 2yo+ · HEAVY1016.1L
4Geelong1243m10 July 2026 · 3Y BM64 · HEAVY84.3L
2Ballarat Synthetic1200m24 June 2026 · 3Y BM64 · SYNTHETIC0.4L
1Horsham1100m21 Dec 2025 · 3Y MDN-SW · SOFT7-2.5
3Warrnambool1000m11 Nov 2025 · 3yo+ · SOFT73.5L
4Horsham800m20 May 2025 · Barrier Trial4L

Insights

Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 16% in Last 100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -35% POT in their L100 Races
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Improver
Positive
Poised to improve on recent form here
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Let-up (83-days). Placed at Warrnambool first-up last campaign. Can challenge again fresh in this line-up.

ILB

First up today. Came on strongly when 3rd beaten by 3 1/2L last time at Warrnambool. Expecting to settle positively. Commands respect.

Fair form when 3½l third over 5½f at Warrnambool (handicap) in August.

RSIS

Resuming after a break. Did well to run into 3rd beaten by 3 1/2L last start at Warrnambool. Has plenty of early pace. Should give this a shake.

3Regina Dei ReJ: Brad Rawiller·T: V L Malady258kg5 1 4 3 16: 1-1-2$7.50$2.00

Career

6: 1-1-2

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed20%
Rating40%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
3: 0-0-2
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Wangaratta
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
2: 0-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
5: 1-1-2
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
4: 1-1-2
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

1Pakenham1000m2 Apr 2026 · 3UP F&M MDN-SW · GOOD4-3.3
3Yarra Valley1000m15 Mar 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD41.7L
4Ballarat1000m14 Oct 2025 · 4UPMDN-SW · SOFT51.6L
1Tatura850m1 Oct 2025 · Barrier Trial-2.5
5Wangaratta1100m15 June 2025 · 2UP MDN-SW · HEAVY109L
2Werribee1000m31 May 2025 · MDN-SW · GOOD41.3L
3Ballarat1000m11 May 2025 · 2yo+ · GOOD42L

Insights

Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 17% in Last 100 Rides
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 8%
Margin LS
Positive
Won by a big margin last start
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 2
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

First-up (31-weeks). In the minors at Yarra Glen first-up last campaign. 6th & 4th at recent jump-outs. Has some claims fresh in this line-up.

ILB

Resumes from a break of 31 weeks. Spaced the field to win by 3 1/4L last run at Pakenham and will try to take advantage of the gate. Very minor chance.

Appears to be on the upgrade judged on two most recent runs; a good winner in a maiden at Pakenham, opening her account at the sixth time of asking in April; despite that Pakenham success, hard enough to fancy.

RSIS

Resuming after a 31 week break. Was a comprehensive winner by 3 1/4L last time at Pakenham and has a good draw. Getting better in recent performances.

4MakarimJ: Neil Farley·T: Charlotte Parker857.5kg8 1 9 3 78: 1-0-2$16.00$3.10

Career

8: 1-0-2

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed20%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-1
Track Warrnambool
2: 0-0-0
Track Hamilton
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
3: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1100m
4: 1-0-0
Going Heavy
3: 1-0-1
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
4: 0-0-1

Last starts

7Horsham1100m18 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD34.07L
3Ballarat1000m9 Oct 2026 · 3UP BM56 HCP · GOOD41.1L
9Hamilton1100m14 Sept 2026 · 3UP BM56 HCP · SOFT67.4L
1Horsham1100m19 May 2026 · MDN-SW · HEAVY8-1
8Warrnambool1200m5 May 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · HEAVY86.7L
3Terang1200m12 Apr 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · HEAVY101.5L
4Avoca1100m29 Mar 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD32.5L
7Warrnambool1200m11 Jan 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · GOOD310.4L

Insights

Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 25% in Last 100 Rides
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 8%
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 51%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 29%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 10%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Punctured badly after leading in the 1100m 3yo+ (Bm62) at Horsham. Has early speed. One for exotics.

ILB

Started $14.00 and was well beaten when 7th last time at Horsham. Likely to be well placed early. Looks highly doubtful.

Fair effort when beaten 4l, finishing seventh of 11 over 5½f at Horsham (handicap) three weeks ago; a few rivals look in good form so passed over.

RSIS

Odds of 13/1 and tailed off to finish 7th last time at Horsham. Will be pushing for a forward position early.

5SkjaldmoScratched9––––

Career

6: 1-0-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating50%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
3: 1-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
4: 1-0-0
Track Morphettville
1: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
5: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
5: 1-0-1
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

1Ballarat1000m9 Oct 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD4-1
3Cranbourne1200m31 Oct 2025 · 3Y MDN-SW · GOOD43L
4Ballarat1000m6 Oct 2025 · 3Y FILLIES MDN-SW · SOFT60.8L
10Ballarat1000m19 Sept 2025 · 3Y MDN-SW · GOOD43.2L
1Caulfield800m2 Sept 2025 · Barrier Trial-2
8Morphettville1000m5 Apr 2025 · Set Weights · GOOD43.33L

Insights

Honest
Positive
Finishing in the money lately

Comments

AAP

Freshened after returning. Really gutsy performance on the speed this venue after lengthy absence. Can lead or take a sit. Makes strong appeal.

ILB

Led and controlled the pace when winning by a margin of 1L last run at this venue and showing improvement in recent outings.

Successful by 1l in a maiden when getting off the mark at the fifth time of asking last month; has not had much racing and has arguably shown improved form the last twice; she can make a bold bid.

RSIS

Led from start to finish to win by 1L last run around here and showing improvement in recent outings.

6FarmeliaJ: Damian Lane·T: Mitchell Freedman157kg1 102: 1-0-0$2.75$1.20

Career

2: 1-0-0

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
Early Speed100%
Rating100%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
1: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Caulfield Heath
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 1-0-0

Last starts

10Caulfield Heath1200m17 June 2026 · 2Y HCP · SOFT64.7L
1Caulfield Heath1000m27 May 2026 · MDN-SW · SOFT7-0.4

Insights

Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Returns for second campaign (21-weeks). Raced in metro company last prep. 2nd & 1st at latest jump-outs. Expect can make an immediate impact.

ILB

First up after 21 weeks and finished with purpose when winning first up last preparation at Caulfield Heath. Facing a weaker group of contenders. Drawn the rails. Very capable of taking this out.

Not disgraced in tenth over 6f at Caulfield (handicap) five months ago; not had much racing - third outing here; just second start in this company; a leading contender if finding her best form and had excuses last time (crowded).

RSIS

Resuming and flew home to win resuming last preparation at Caulfield Heath. Taking on a lower class of opponents. Drawn well. Good chance today.

7Lucifer's GirlJ: Shayleigh Ingelse·T: P A Preusker656.5kg11: 1-0-0$5.00$1.50

Career

1: 1-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed20%
Rating80%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Penola
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1075m
1: 1-0-0
Going Soft
1: 1-0-0

Last starts

1Penola1075m16 Oct 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · SOFT5-7.89

Insights

Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 81% in Last 100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 114%
Trainer Form
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectations 80%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 64% POT in L100 Runners
Key Jockey
Positive
Shayleigh Ingelse winning at 83% POT in last 100 rides
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 15%
Margin LS
Positive
Won by a big margin last start
Raceday Experience
Positive
Wiser for debut run

Comments

AAP

The medium of heavy support and duly saluted at Penola on career debut. Shayleigh Ingelse on again and receives a 2kg concession. Hard to knock winning form.

ILB

Made no mistakes when winning by just short of 8L last run at Penola and having second career run. Should muster plenty of early speed. Should give this a shake.

Cosy debut winner (Penola, 5½f) at 6-5 four weeks ago; should go well.

RSIS

Spaced the field to win by a margin of close to 8L last run at Penola and having second race start. Will be positive in the run early. Strong chance to be considered.

8Dame I AmJ: Alana Kelly·T: Shay Keating755kg11 9 1 3 614: 1-1-3$101.00$8.00

Career

14: 1-1-3

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed20%
Rating20%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
3: 0-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
2: 0-1-0
Track Donald
1: 1-0-0
Track Bendigo
1: 0-0-1
Track Camperdown
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
6: 1-0-2
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
6: 0-1-1
Going Good
10: 1-0-3
Going Soft
3: 0-1-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

6Ballarat Synthetic1000m24 June 2026 · BM66 · SYNTHETIC7.3L
3Bendigo1000m29 May 2026 · 2UP F&M BM56 HCP · GOOD42.5L
1Donald1000m2 May 2026 · 2yo+ · GOOD3-0.1
9Ballarat1200m20 Mar 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD311.8L
11Ballarat1200m10 Mar 2026 · 4yo+ · GOOD33.9L
3Ballarat1200m14 Feb 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD43.3L
8Camperdown1000m17 Jan 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD36.7L
3Burrumbeet1000m1 Jan 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD42.5L

Insights

Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 18% better than Career Avg.
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are winning 29% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 20% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 8%
Well beaten LS
Negative
Not competitive last run
Form At Track
Negative
Yet to win here
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

First-up (20-weeks). Placed at Burrumbeet first-up last campaign. Usually gets back. May need this.

ILB

First up after 20 weeks and good effort to run 3rd beaten by 2 1/2L first up last preparation at Burrumbeet. Will be giving the leaders a big start. Tough race, will need luck.

Finished sixth, beaten 7l, five months ago; this looks a fair heat so others more likely.

RSIS

Resuming and hit the line well when 3rd resuming last preparation at Burrumbeet. Prefers to settle towards the rear. Stepping down to a lower level.

9Ville De LumiereJ: Cian Macredmond·T: Ms M Cunningham555kg2 2 5 4 1216: 1-5-2$34.00$4.00

Career

16: 1-5-2

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offmidfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
Early Speed20%
Rating40%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
4: 0-3-1
Second-up
3: 0-1-0
Third-up
2: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
2: 0-0-0
Track Kilmore
1: 0-0-1
Track Morphettville
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
3: 1-0-0
Distance 1050m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
4: 0-2-1
Going Good
10: 0-3-1
Going Soft
2: 0-1-0
Going Synthetic
4: 1-1-1

Last starts

12Ballarat1200m24 May 2026 · 2UP BM62 HCP · GOOD46.9L
4Ballarat1100m30 Apr 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD31.1L
5Swan Hill1300m12 Apr 2026 · BM56 · GOOD33.5L
2Terang1206m17 Mar 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT60.1L
2Horsham1100m24 Feb 2026 · BM56 · GOOD31.3L
2Tatura1450m8 Sept 2025 · 3UP BM56 HCP · GOOD42.3L
3Ballarat Synthetic1200m19 Aug 2025 · BM58 HCP · SYNTHETIC1.81L
8Ballarat Synthetic1000m1 July 2025 · 2yo+ · SYNTHETIC6.7L

Insights

Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 28% lower than Career Avg.
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 43% in L100 rides
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Resuming (24-weeks). Ex T & C McEvoy. Trained here now. Placed first-up last campaign. One for multiples fresh in this line-up.

ILB

First up after 24 weeks and ran home into 2nd beaten by 1 1/4L first up last preparation at Horsham. Coming to a new trainer. A demanding task.

Finished towards the rear of 14 here over 6f (handicap) six months ago; a winner over C&D; first start for new stable; a lot on her plate here and hard enough to fancy.

RSIS

Resuming and rattled home nicely into 2nd beaten by 1 1/4L resuming last preparation at Horsham. First start for a new trainer. Expected to settle towards the tail.

Odds correct as at Wed 11 Nov, 4:20 pm AEDT. Odds can change.

Past meetings

Mon 2 Nov, 11:00 am AEDT · 8 races
Fri 23 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 9 races
Fri 9 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 10 races
Wed 30 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 8 races
Fri 18 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 9 races