Shortest win price
Mad About Magnus (6)
2.30
Pakenham hosts the Msc Signs Benchmark 62 over 1000m at 8:45 pm AEDT on a SOFT5 track with showers about. Mad About Magnus is shortest in the win market, with Bel Lupa and Hello Romeo next. Mr Tickles and Bifrost follow. The race shapes as a genuine sprint battle across a soft surface where early position will matter.
Mad About Magnus brings serious credentials. Back for a second campaign after 19 weeks, the four-year-old has won two of four starts to date and was a recent jump-out winner. Damian Lane takes the ride from barrier 1, and the formDetail points to a dominant win at Sale over this exact trip on debut last campaign, when the track was HEAVY8. The rating of 100 and map position suited at this venue jumps off the page. Mr Tickles is striving for a hat-trick. The combination of Hayley Spitse and Mitchell Leek is outperforming market expectations by 102 per cent, a hot pairing. Two straight wins — a solid effort at Bairnsdale at 61kg on 12 October, then a strong finishing run from just off the leaders at Sale over today's trip — frame this runner as a real chance. Hello Romeo and jockey Nadia Daniels also form a red-hot combo, up 141 per cent. After melting under pressure at Sale off a long spell, the comment suggests fitter second-up will help, and a 2kg concession sweetens the case from barrier 4.
The speedGroups reveal four runners intent on leading: Mad About Magnus, Mr Tickles, Hello Romeo, and Abovethefrostline. That early logjam could create genuine tempo, and early sectional data points to a slow pace emerging, which may open the door for runners out the back. Bel Lupa, despite a poor strike rate in camp, sits 26 per cent win POT in this very partnership and rates among the dangers. The ratings suggest a bunched field; three runners are rated between 99 and 100, so plenty is there to separate them at journey's end.
Shortest win price
Mad About Magnus (6)
2.30
Most career wins
Mr Tickles
8-12-5 from 48 starts
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Midfield
Offpace
Leader
Mr Tickles · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are out performing market expectations by 102%
Hello Romeo · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 46% in Last 100 Rides
Favour The Bold · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are out performing market expectations by 50%
Bifrost · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 16% in Last 100 Rides
Career
48: 8-12-5
Rating · IRD
88
Speed map
Leader
First-up
5: 1-2-1
Second-up
4: 2-1-0
Third-up
4: 1-0-1
Fourth-up
4: 0-2-0
Track Sandown
2: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Track Mornington
5: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
8: 1-2-1
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
32: 6-9-3
Going Good
17: 2-2-2
Going Heavy
10: 2-2-2
Going Soft
14: 3-5-1
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 102%
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Consecutive Wins
Positive
Has strung together a few races in a row
Awkward Draw
Negative
May find this draw awkward
Wet To Dry
Negative
Coming from a wet to dry (Heavy 8 to Good 4) track may prove difficult
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Striving for hat-trick. Solid 61kg winner at Bairnsdale 12 Oct. Strong win from just off the leaders at Sale over today's trip. Again holds plenty of aces.
ILB
Flew home to win last time at Sale. Unbeaten last 2 starts. Should come to hand quickly. The large claim from Hayley Spitse should help. Can't leave out of your calculations.
RP
Aiming to complete a hat-trick; has won previously at this course; belied odds of 20-1 when winning by 1l at Sale 19 days ago; his victims included Laura's Gold, Hello Romeo and Inside Man; despite that Sale success, may be vulnerable.
RSIS
Reeled them in when winning last run at Sale. Maintaining a perfect record the last 2 attempts. Should race on the pace. Large claim helps. Could feature here.
Career
16: 3-2-1
Rating · IRD
99
Speed map
Leader
First-up
4: 1-1-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 1-0-0
Track Caulfield
1: 0-0-0
Track Ellerslie
1: 0-0-0
Track Sandown
3: 1-0-0
Distance 955m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
12: 3-1-1
Distance 1100m
2: 0-1-0
Going Good
5: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
9: 3-2-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 46% in Last 100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 141%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 6% POT in L100 Runners
Key Jockey
Positive
Nadia Daniels winning at 44% POT in last 100 rides
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Led them up but melted under pressure at Sale off long spell. Will be fitter second-up and receives a 2kg concession. Leads, handy. Can challenge.
ILB
Started at $6.50 and came in 6th last start at Sale. Is capable of a resurgence. Jockey Nadia Daniels is in top form for this stable. Should put in a decent effort.
RP
Not disgraced in sixth (Sale) 19 days ago; fully effective over this distance with all three wins over this trip and grade looks suitable; can be in the mix if finding his best form.
RSIS
Was 11/2 and finished 6th last start at Sale. Overlooking the last run. Will be positive in the run early. Major chance.
Career
8: 2-0-0
Rating · IRD
88
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
4: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Canterbury
2: 2-0-0
Track Randwick
3: 0-0-0
Track Eagle Farm
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1250m
2: 2-0-0
Going Good
3: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
3: 1-0-0
Going Soft
2: 1-0-0
Wet To Dry
Negative
Coming from a wet to dry (Heavy 8 to Good 4) track may prove difficult
AAP
Finished out the back at Sale for new stable at wide odds. Not fancied.
ILB
Didn't find the line when 12th last time at Sale on a heavy track. Large claim helps.
RP
Finished last of 12 at Sale three weeks ago on debut for this trainer; has to be considered if in the same mood as when achieving most recent success.
RSIS
Couldn't stay in touch when 12th last run at Sale on a heavy surface. Stephanie Hateley takes a large claim.
Career
10: 3-2-0
Rating · IRD
86
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
3: 1-2-0
Second-up
2: 1-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Muswellbrook
2: 0-0-0
Track Rosehill
1: 0-0-0
Track Scone
5: 2-2-0
Distance 1280m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
3: 2-0-0
Distance 1450m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
7: 3-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-2-0
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 50%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 11%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 2
Dist Drop
Negative
Distance decrease from last start
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
First-up (25-weeks). Ex R P Northam in NSW. Placed at Scone first-up last campaign. Big challenge off the long break.
ILB
First up and nice effort when placing 2nd first up last preparation at Scone. Jockey Jett Stanley and trainer Charlotte Littlefield work well together. Lining up against easier rivals. Can show up in this at odds.
RP
Finished towards the rear of 16 at Scone six months ago upped to 1m; has managed three wins from ten career runs; first start for current trainer; returns from a layoff; facing a testing assignment and looks opposable.
RSIS
Resuming and claimed a spot in the placings when 2nd beaten by 3 1/2L resuming last preparation at Scone. Jett Stanley and Charlotte Littlefield are usually competitive together.
Career
54: 6-8-6
Rating · IRD
93
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
10: 2-2-0
Second-up
9: 1-2-1
Third-up
7: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
6: 1-0-0
Track Cranbourne
4: 0-2-1
Track Stawell
1: 1-0-0
Track Pakenham Synthetic
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1000m
29: 2-8-3
Distance 1100m
7: 1-0-2
Distance 1107m
1: 1-0-0
Going Soft
17: 2-4-3
Going Synthetic
2: 1-0-0
Going Good
32: 3-4-3
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 16% in Last 100 Rides
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Awkward Draw
Negative
Would have liked a better draw
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Form At Track
Negative
Yet to win here
Racing Solidly
Positive
In peak form
AAP
Long losing streak but recent efforts sound. No match but kept working home to finish among the placings this venue over this trip. Super fit from racing, can play a role with even luck.
ILB
Made some ground late when 3rd last time around here. Good chance at a nice price.
RP
Finished in front of several of these when a respectable third last month; a previous winner here; been struggling to get his head in front recently so makes little appeal.
RSIS
Finished strongly when 3rd beaten by nearly 2 1/2L last run around here. Expecting a solid performance.
Career
4: 2-0-1
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Leader
First-up
1: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Sale
3: 2-0-1
Track Caulfield
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1008m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1006m
1: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
1: 1-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 1-0-1
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 6% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 11%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Back for second campaign (19-weeks). Won 2 of 4 starts in first campaign. In the minors at Sale on debut last campaign. Recent jump-out winner. Must be considered.
ILB
First up and faded in the late stages of the race when 3rd first up last preparation at Sale. Should be going forward early. Going down in grade. Strong chance to be considered.
RP
Finished towards the rear of 14 at Caulfield in June; winner of two of her four career starts; returns from a break here; leading claims despite defeat last time as she was successful two runs ago.
RSIS
Resuming and maintained a solid pace but eventually weakened to finish 3rd resuming last preparation at Sale. Will be pushing for a forward position early. Goes down in grade. Will go close today.
Career
15: 3-2-0
Rating · IRD
79
Speed map
Leader
First-up
6: 1-2-0
Second-up
4: 1-0-0
Third-up
3: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Moonee Valley
1: 1-0-0
Track Yarra Valley
1: 1-0-0
Track Sandown
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
13: 2-2-0
Distance 1009m
1: 1-0-0
Going Heavy
2: 1-0-0
Going Soft
7: 0-1-0
Going Good
6: 2-1-0
Jockey Booking
Negative
Luke Nolen current POT is 46% below Career Avg.
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -33% POT in their L100 Races
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 55% in L100 rides
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Awkward Draw
Negative
Would have liked a better draw
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature
AAP
Led, compounded this venue second-up at $20. Will be fitter but third-up form isn't great. Has an adverse draw. Looking elsewhere.
ILB
At $20.00 didn't threaten when 11th last time at this venue. Won't be far away during the run. Facing a difficult task.
RP
11th of 12 with blinkers tried 14 days ago; more than capable if on song so a possible player.
RSIS
At 19/1 weakened to finish 11th last start at the track. Should be going forward early.
Career
21: 3-0-4
Rating · IRD
78
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
4: 1-0-1
Second-up
3: 1-0-0
Third-up
3: 1-0-1
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-1
Track Bairnsdale
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
3: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
6: 0-0-1
Distance 1203m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1214m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
13: 2-0-2
Going Soft
5: 1-0-0
Going Synthetic
3: 0-0-2
Trainer SR
Negative
John Moloney striking at just 6%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 24%
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
First-up (18-weeks). Has win fresh in the past. Unplaced at most recent jump-out. Keep safe on return.
ILB
First up. Was amongst the placegetters when 3rd beaten by 1 1/2L last time at Pakenham Synthetic. Will need to elevate.
RP
Produced a good effort to finish third over 6f here (handicap) four months ago; back from an absence here.
RSIS
Resuming after a break. Nice effort to run into 3rd last run at Pakenham Synthetic.
Career
4: 1-0-0
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
3: 1-0-0
Track Pakenham Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
3: 1-0-0
Distance 1000m
3: 1-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 1-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Trainer SR
Negative
Brian McGrath striking at just 8%
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 102%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 26%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature
AAP
Raced in back half and never likely this course after lengthy absence. Can't enthuse.
ILB
Just average when 10th last time at this track.
RP
Lightly raced (running for just the fifth time); has won over C&D; finished tenth of 12 last month; running in a handicap for just the second time; she can be taken on.
RSIS
Fairly underwhelming when 10th last run at this venue.
Career
10: 1-2-0
Rating · IRD
99
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
3: 1-1-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
2: 1-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1206m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1000m
5: 1-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
6: 1-1-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-1-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-0
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 7%
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are winning 26% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 29%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Track Stats
Positive
Excels at this track
AAP
Latest attempt this journey when ran on okay without troubling this venue. Usually gets back. Among the dangers.
ILB
At $4.40 ran on into 4th last run at this track. Can go through the gears. Great chance.
RP
Can boast winning form over this C&D; a few throw outs since her success in a maiden at Pakenham in March; respectable effort (beaten 2½l) last month; meeting some horses in good form and looks risky.
RSIS
Started at 10/3 and improved when 4th last start around here. Might take a while to wind up but should be hitting top gear in the straight. Has claims.
Career
23: 2-2-1
Rating · IRD
77
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
3: 0-1-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
3: 0-1-0
Track Casterton
3: 2-0-0
Track Cranbourne
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1013m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1014m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
3: 0-0-0
Going Good
6: 0-2-0
Going Heavy
7: 2-0-0
Going Soft
10: 0-0-1
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Win Drought
Negative
Not won for a while
AAP
Long time since last saluted. Okay at latest when settled back. Others with greater appeal.
ILB
Odds of $15.00 and finished 6th last time at Echuca and facing stiffer opposition. Unlikely to go close.
RP
Finished sixth but only beaten 3l (Echuca) last week; shown all winning form at Casterton (two successes); meeting some horses in good form and one to tread carefully with.
RSIS
Started 14/1 and came in 6th last time at Echuca and competing in a higher grade.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Onpace
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 62% in Last 100 Rides
Jockey Booking
Positive
Luke Cartwright 52% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Stable In Form
Positive
Stable going well. Out performing market by 60%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Gap In Runs
Negative
Not raced for 32 days
AAP
Freshened. Went home tamely in rain affected going at Bairnsdale second-up at $9. Decent alley. Among the dangers.
ILB
Odds of $9.00 and was well beaten when 9th last run at Bairnsdale and matched against a stronger field.
RSIS
Started 8/1 and didn't threaten when 9th last run at Bairnsdale and racing against tougher rivals.