Shortest win price
Wind Rush (10)
3.30
Bordertown hosts the Harper's Freight at 5:50 pm AEDT over 1550 metres on a soft track with overcast skies. Wind Rush heads the win market, with Bayou Music and Tyusix tracking next. These three sit shortest in a field where the form spreads across several capable types. The track is rated soft six, which can prove a leveller for runners suited to deeper going.
Wind Rush rates a real chance fresh. The gelding won at Morphettville over 1600 metres in a small field at good ground, leading and responding strongly when asked. Todd Pannell's recent strike rate sits 30 per cent better than career average, a positive tick for the jockey. That win came with a three-length margin, and the form suggests readiness here. Tyusix has caught the eye. The runner has early speed—an edge on this circuit—and the last ten form reads 4 5 2 1 2 3 4 5, showing consistency of late. Not beaten far two starts back over 2000 metres in a benchmark 80, and the drop to 1550 metres suits. The comment flags a passive ride over the longer test and running on evenly; sharper tactics may yield improvement here. Shalhavmusik won at Murray Bridge over 1400 metres at benchmark 58 and again at Gawler over 1516 metres at benchmark 56, both at good ground. The jockey and trainer are outperforming market expectations by 44 per cent. That early form comes off recent wins, and the runner gets in light at 54 kilogrammes.
Exclude and Rhinestone Rory lead the early picture from barriers 11 and 7 respectively. Super Lad sits onpace from barrier 6, while the midfield of Oxford Blue, Savsonic and Shalhavmusik will jostle for position. Bayou Music runs from barrier 1 as a backmarker but posted the fastest finishing sectionals last start at Morphettville, a note worth watching if the race develops in front. The track is new to Bayou Music, which tempers enthusiasm, but the speed advantage from that closing split deserves respect in a race where the margin between the top chances is tight.
Shortest win price
Wind Rush (10)
3.30
Most career wins
Savsonic
7-6-5 from 40 starts
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Midfield
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Oxford Blue · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 24% better than Career Avg.
Super Lad · Negative
Trainer SR
Chris Bieg striking at just 5%
Savsonic · Negative
Trainer SR
Stephen Theodore striking at just 7%
Tyusix · Positive
Early Splits
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Career
34: 7-5-3
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
6: 1-2-1
Second-up
5: 2-0-1
Third-up
5: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
3: 1-0-0
Track Flemington
3: 1-0-0
Track Ararat
1: 1-0-0
Track Swan Hill
2: 0-1-1
Distance 1600m
5: 0-1-0
Distance 1700m
2: 2-0-0
Distance 1800m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
13: 2-1-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
14: 2-3-2
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 24% in Last 100 Rides
Trainer SR
Negative
Henry Dwyer striking at just 7%
Jockey Booking
Positive
Jacob Opperman 26% above market expected in L100 Rides
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 34%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Weight Rise
Negative
Carrying 4kg more than LS
AAP
Not disgraced at Bendigo. Shapes as a rough place prospect.
ILB
Jumped at $16.00 and didn't maintain the pace when 5th last run at Bendigo and up against a less challenging field. Has to carry more weight this time.
RP
A proven winner with a career wins-runs record of 7-34; solid run when fifth (Bendigo) two weeks ago; assuming he steps up from most recent effort then looks a contender.
RSIS
Was 15/1 and gave ground late when 5th last start at Bendigo and competing in a less challenging grade. Has more weight to carry.
Career
21: 3-3-5
Rating · IRD
99
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
5: 0-0-3
Second-up
4: 2-1-0
Third-up
3: 0-2-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-1
Track Sandown
2: 0-0-2
Track Jamestown
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2000m
3: 0-0-1
Distance 2150m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 2200m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
13: 1-3-4
Going Soft
7: 2-0-1
Going Unknown
1: 0-0-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 24% better than Career Avg.
Trainer SR
Negative
Stephen Theodore striking at just 7%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 39%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 46% Profit on Turnover
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Drawn Poorly
Negative
Unfavourable barrier draw
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
AAP
Fresh. Not disgraced at Jamestown. In the placings only prior run here. Could get into the placings.
ILB
Started $3.60 and average effort when 6th last run at Jamestown. Must respect.
RP
Fair effort when beaten 2½l over 1m1f at Jamestown (handicap) six weeks ago; this line-up contains some strong opposition so looks risky.
RSIS
Started 13/5 and appeared lacklustre when 6th last run at Jamestown. Has some claims.
Career
26: 6-3-3
Rating · IRD
82
Speed map
Leader
First-up
5: 1-0-2
Second-up
4: 0-0-1
Third-up
4: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
4: 1-1-0
Track Penola
1: 1-0-0
Track Port Lincoln
1: 0-0-1
Track Balaklava
3: 2-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
5: 1-1-1
Distance 1400m
7: 2-0-0
Going Soft
8: 2-0-0
Going Good
18: 4-3-3
Trainer SR
Negative
Chris Bieg striking at just 5%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 35%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Gap In Runs
Negative
Not raced for 33 days
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature
AAP
4 weeks since last run. Failed to threaten at Halidon when drifting in the betting. Pace influence. Best viewed as a rough place hope.
ILB
Started $17.00 and didn't threaten when 10th last run at Halidon but competing in a less challenging grade. Few more classier types in this race.
RP
Finished tenth of 12 over 1m1f at Halidon (handicap) 33 days ago; career record shows his ability to win (wins-runs record of 6-26); strong claims.
RSIS
Odds of 16/1 and didn't attack the line when 10th last run at Halidon but dropping in grade.
Career
40: 7-6-5
Rating · IRD
82
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
5: 2-0-0
Second-up
3: 0-0-1
Third-up
3: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-0
Track Murray Bridge
3: 1-0-0
Track Tauranga
1: 0-0-0
Track Te Rapa
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1430m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1541m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1966m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
23: 5-3-3
Going Heavy
3: 0-0-1
Going Soft
14: 2-3-1
Trainer SR
Negative
Stephen Theodore striking at just 7%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 39%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 46% Profit on Turnover
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Gap In Runs
Negative
Not raced for 28 days
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature
AAP
Kept fresh. Went home tamely at Penola off extended spell at $20. Strips in better shape. Has some claims.
ILB
Started $20.00 and weakened to finish 10th last start at Penola. Prefer to watch.
RP
Finished last of ten over 7f at Penola (handicap) last month; useful at this level; has wins in her back catalogue so can't be ruled out.
RSIS
Started 19/1 and couldn't maintain the pace when 10th last start at Penola.
Career
28: 4-5-4
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
4: 1-0-0
Second-up
3: 0-2-0
Third-up
3: 1-1-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-2-0
Track Manangatang
1: 0-0-0
Track Balaklava
2: 1-0-0
Track Bordertown
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1561m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1569m
1: 0-1-0
Going Soft
9: 2-0-2
Going Good
17: 2-4-2
Going Heavy
2: 0-1-0
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Dist Drop
Negative
Distance decrease from last start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Weight Increase
Negative
Rises 8kg now
AAP
Consistent of late. Not beaten far here two back over 2000m. Under a passive ride over longer test and ran on evenly (Bm80) at Morphettville. Commands attention here.
ILB
Odds of $6.50 and inched into 5th last start at Morphettville and stepping down to a lower level. Back to a shorter distance. Up in weight. Worth a lot of thought in this race.
RP
Useful in this grade; not beaten too far when fifth of 12 over 1m2f at Morphettville (handicap) three weeks ago; capable if in the mood so could be thereabouts.
RSIS
At 11/2 advanced late into 5th last time at Morphettville and will appreciate the drop in grade. Has good finishing pace. Will be facing a significant drop in distance. Serious contender.
Career
28: 2-7-7
Rating · IRD
93
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
7: 1-3-1
Second-up
6: 1-1-0
Third-up
5: 0-1-1
Fourth-up
4: 0-0-3
Track Belmont
5: 1-1-1
Track Pinjarra
4: 0-2-1
Track Ascot
6: 0-0-2
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
9: 2-3-0
Distance 1500m
3: 0-1-1
Going Good
17: 2-3-4
Going Soft
11: 0-4-3
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Form Revival
Positive
Turning form around with last couple
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Long winless run. In the minor spoils but still well held at Morphettville. Needs to lift again here.
ILB
Tidy run when 3rd last start at Morphettville and demonstrating upward trajectory in recent races. Can win.
RP
Wins infrequently; finished third but wasn't beaten too far (just under 5l, Morphettville) last Tuesday when behind Wind Rush upped to this distance; not hard to turn elsewhere.
RSIS
Competitive effort when 3rd last start at Morphettville and on an upward trajectory in recent races. Strong prospects in this race.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Offmidfield
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 72% in Last 100 Rides
Jockey Booking
Positive
Shayleigh Ingelse 105% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 824%
Hot Jockey
Positive
Shayleigh Ingelse in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 105%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Third outing for new trainer/ this region. Sent back from wide gate and let rip late at Naracoorte second-up. Again one for multiples.
ILB
Zipped home into 2nd last start at Naracoorte.
RSIS
Claimed a spot in the top three when 2nd beaten by 2L last start at Naracoorte.
Career
13: 1-4-1
Rating · IRD
99
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
3: 0-1-0
Second-up
2: 0-1-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-1-0
Track Flemington
2: 0-1-0
Track Murray Bridge
1: 0-1-0
Track Caulfield
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1800m
3: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1400m
3: 0-1-1
Going Good
8: 0-2-0
Going Soft
5: 1-2-1
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 11%
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -50% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 22%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 23%
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 1
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Secured second in a staggered finish at Morphettville. First time around Bordertown. Harder to warm to here.
ILB
Picked up late ground when 2nd last run at Morphettville and has drawn to do little work. Should be swooping on the field late. Can win this.
RP
Generally struggled with a record of 1-13; behind Wind Rush when just under 4l second at Morphettville ten days ago.
RSIS
Finished with intent when 2nd beaten by 3 3/4L last run at Morphettville and will appreciate a good draw. Displays very good closing pace. Good potential.
Career
3: 1-0-1
Rating · IRD
74
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
2: 0-0-1
Track Wingatui
2: 1-0-1
Track Naracoorte
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1300m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1430m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
2: 1-0-1
Jockey Booking
Negative
Christine Puls current POT is 63% below Career Avg.
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Trainer Form
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectations 80%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 64% POT in L100 Runners
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 74% in L100 rides
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Second run now in Australia Ex-NZ. Punctured badly after leading in the 1430m (Bm66) at Naracoorte for new trainer. Draw is problematic. Hard to warm to.
ILB
Started at $8.00 and folded up in the straight when 7th last run at Naracoorte. The wide draw shouldn't be a problem with plenty of early speed. Rough chance.
RP
Just his fourth outing so still early days; fair effort when beaten 4l, finishing seventh of nine at Naracoorte over 7f (handicap) on first run for current trainer two weeks ago; this only his second start in handicap company; others appeal more.
RSIS
Started at 7/1 and faded away to finish 7th last run at Naracoorte. Should be rolling forward early from the wide stall.
Career
24: 2-5-4
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
5: 0-2-0
Second-up
4: 0-0-2
Third-up
3: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Ellerslie
7: 0-1-1
Track Pukekohe
1: 0-1-0
Track Morphettville
9: 1-0-2
Distance 1400m
7: 0-3-1
Distance 1500m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1568m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
7: 1-2-1
Going Heavy
3: 0-0-2
Going Soft
14: 1-3-1
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 30% better than Career Avg.
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are under performing market expectations by -20%
Hot Jockey
Positive
Todd Pannell in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 28%
Margin LS
Positive
Won by a big margin last start
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 2
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Led, responded strongly to score in small field at Morphettville. Leads, handy. Poised to deliver another big performance.
ILB
Set the tempo to win by 3 3/4L last time at Morphettville and will try to take advantage of the gate. Definitely worth considering.
RP
Emphatic winner (Morphettville) upped to this distance last Tuesday when beating Bayou Music (runner-up) and Skytalker (third), ending losing run; others appeal more despite that win last time.
RSIS
Dictated terms in front to win by a margin of 3 3/4L last time at Morphettville and can find a nice position from the draw. Capable of winning this.
Career
42: 2-8-6
Rating · IRD
74
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
3: 0-1-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-1-0
Track Edenhope
1: 0-1-0
Track Mildura
2: 0-0-2
Track Wycheproof
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1607m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 2100m
3: 0-0-1
Distance 1430m
2: 1-0-0
Going Good
18: 1-3-4
Going Heavy
5: 1-0-0
Going Soft
19: 0-5-2
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 12%
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 89%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 22%
Fresh
Positive
Freshened up. Had a break of 42-60 days
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Let-up (54-days). Issued decent challenge (Bm56) at Mt Gambier. Has speed. Could again get into the placings.
ILB
Freshened for this. Finished 3rd last run at Mount Gambier and will appreciate the drop in weight. Should jump out and bowl along. Will struggle against these.
RP
Beaten narrowly at Mt Gambier over 7f (handicap) two months ago; a winner over C&D.
RSIS
Freshened up. Ran well when 3rd last run at Mount Gambier and will benefit with the weight drop. Will be positive in the run early.
Career
26: 4-2-3
Rating · IRD
81
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
4: 0-0-1
Second-up
3: 1-0-1
Third-up
3: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-0
Track Murray Bridge
10: 2-0-0
Track Gawler
5: 1-1-1
Track Balaklava
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1250m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
19: 4-2-3
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
6: 0-0-0
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 44%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 19% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 7%
Consecutive Wins
Positive
Has strung together a few races in a row
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Racing Solidly
Positive
In peak form
AAP
Racing in great heart. Finished too well winning (Bm58) at Murray Bridge Gh. Gets in light. Can again play a role.
ILB
Reeled them in to win last time at Murray Bridge. Keeping a perfect win record the last 2 runs. Prefer in a much weaker race.
RP
On a hat-trick after last win; won by 1l over 7f at Murray Bridge Gh (handicap) last month; others more likely despite that win last time.
RSIS
Rounded them up to win last run at Murray Bridge. On a winning streak the last 2 runs.
Career
12: 1-1-2
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
3: 0-1-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-1
Third-up
2: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Warrnambool
2: 0-1-0
Track Casterton
1: 0-0-0
Track Donald
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1620m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
3: 0-1-1
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
7: 1-1-1
Going Heavy
4: 0-0-1
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 8%
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 76%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 22%
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Let down strongly from midfield to score at Naracoorte for new stable. Tackling stronger now but arrives in form.
ILB
Finished hard to win last time at Naracoorte. Needs to improve.
RP
Narrow scorer in a maiden when off the mark on debut outing for new trainer (Naracoorte) two weeks ago; has shown some recent improvement.
RSIS
Picked up nicely to win last start at Naracoorte.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Offmidfield
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
AAP
Got back and ran home steadily at Morphettville over longer assignment. Unproven this trip. Others more persuasive.
ILB
Improved when 4th last run at Morphettville and up against weaker rivals. Will be dropping in distance.
RSIS
Chased well when 4th last time at Morphettville and competing in a lower grade. Coming back in trip.