Shortest win price
Beneath The Rock (2)
1.80
Canterbury hosts a Benchmark 72 for three-year-olds and mares at 9:30 pm AEDT over 1250 metres on a Good 4 track under overcast skies. Beneath The Rock leads the win market from Kujenga, Hellabella, and Hush Hush. The shorter-priced runners all bring form to the table, with the race shaping as a genuine contest between a handful of lightly-raced types.
Beneath The Rock jumps from barrier one and rates a real chance. Drawn to get an economic trail, this K A Lees-trained runner won at Newcastle over 1200 metres last time and backed that up with a solid effort at Warwick Farm second-up, where the form guide notes it had enough in the tank for the minors in this class. A record of two wins from four starts supports the confidence, and the rating of 92 (IRD) sits well ahead of most in the field. Kujenga, in barrier five with James Mc Donald, has shown some promising signs in the lead-up — a solid chase at Warwick Farm when second-up warrants attention, the form says. Rated 93, Kujenga is suited to the track, outperforming market expectations by a significant margin. Hellabella brings speed from barrier seven and won decisively at Hawkesbury on Good 4 going at 60.5kg just days ago, though the Warwick Farm run came when it was outpaced when it mattered. Hush Hush is resuming after 18 weeks and drawn to effect in barrier three — a top yard return suggests this is no soft assignment, but the record of two wins from nine with a first-up win at Kembla Grange last prep offers encouragement.
The leaders Beneath The Rock and Hellabella will battle for early position, with Kujenga expected to settle just off them in the offmidfield. Hush Hush and Midnight Luna should occupy the midfield, while Premium and Crimson Wings will chase from the tail. The speedmap suggests the race will be contested up front, so tracking the leader into the lane could prove decisive. Crimson Wings deserves a mention further down the order — the Freedman-trained runner is paired with Anna Roper in a hot jockey-trainer combination outperforming market expectations by 58 per cent, a useful pointer despite the wider prices.
Shortest win price
Beneath The Rock (2)
1.80
Most career wins
Midnight Luna
4-3-1 from 15 starts
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Midfield
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Beneath The Rock · Negative
Trainer Career
Trainer Career S/R is 9%
Kujenga · Negative
Jockey Booking
James Mc Donald current POT is 8% below Career Avg.
Hellabella · Positive
Fast Early
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Hush Hush · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 26% in Last 100 Rides
Career
14: 3-6-0
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
3: 0-1-0
Second-up
2: 0-1-0
Third-up
2: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 2-0-0
Track Ipswich
1: 0-0-0
Track Kembla Grange
1: 1-0-0
Track Rosehill
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
4: 2-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1300m
3: 0-3-0
Going Good
6: 2-3-0
Going Soft
8: 1-3-0
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
AAP
In touch and fought on dauntlessly at Warwick Farm. Won only other time at Canterbury and poised to deliver another big performance with inside gate and handy claim.
ILB
Charged home to win last start at Warwick Farm and gets a favourable gate. Showing improvement in recent outings.
RP
Landed a narrow success in a handicap last month (Warwick Farm); her victims included Kujenga, Hellabella and Premium; has winning form at this track; cannot be ignored.
RSIS
Romped home to win last run at Warwick Farm and will try to take advantage of the draw. Getting better in recent performances.
Career
4: 2-0-2
Rating · IRD
92
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
2: 1-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Scone
1: 0-0-1
Track Newcastle
1: 1-0-0
Track Warwick Farm
2: 1-0-1
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1300m
2: 1-0-1
Going Good
3: 1-0-2
Going Soft
1: 1-0-0
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 9%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 41%
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 45%
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
Racing Strongly
Positive
Racing in great shape
AAP
Won two from four. On speed, had enough in the tank for the minors 3yo+ (Bm72) at Warwick Farm second-up. Drawn to get an economic trail and highly rated.
ILB
Good result placing 3rd beaten by 1 1/2L last start at Warwick Farm and promising career start. Has run into the money at every start this preparation. Great chance.
RP
Gave good account to finish third (Warwick Farm) last month; winner of two of her four career runs; leading claims.
RSIS
Solid run on the pace before weakening to finish 3rd beaten by 1 1/2L last time at Warwick Farm and showing consistent performance in races. Drawn by the rails. Very capable of taking this out.
Career
16: 1-2-2
Rating · IRD
94
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
4: 1-0-0
Second-up
3: 0-1-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-1
Track Scone
2: 0-0-0
Track Warwick Farm
1: 0-0-0
Track Wyong
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
4: 0-0-1
Distance 1100m
5: 0-1-0
Going Soft
6: 1-1-0
Going Good
10: 0-1-2
Jockey Booking
Negative
James Mc Donald current POT is 8% below Career Avg.
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 56%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
AAP
Gave solid chase in a good effort at Warwick Farm when second-up. Warrants attention.
ILB
Jumped at $17.00 and moved through the field into 4th last start at Warwick Farm. More confidence with jockey James Mcdonald guiding the horse. Has every chance.
RP
Wasn't beaten that far when fourth (beaten just under 2l) at Warwick Farm over 5½f (handicap) last month; has a record of 1-16; James McDonald booking heightens interest; not been able to get her head in front lately so others make more appeal.
RSIS
Odds of 16/1 and made ground when closing off to finish 4th last run at Warwick Farm. Jockey James Mcdonald is an asset. Will be in the finish.
Career
10: 2-3-1
Rating · IRD
73
Speed map
Leader
First-up
4: 0-2-1
Second-up
3: 2-1-0
Third-up
3: 0-0-0
Track Wyong
1: 0-1-0
Track Randwick
1: 0-0-1
Track Gosford
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1100m
6: 1-3-0
Distance 1200m
3: 1-0-0
Going Good
4: 1-0-0
Going Soft
6: 1-3-1
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
AAP
Solid 60.5kg winner at Hawkesbury 8 Oct. Just off leading division but outpaced when it mattered at Warwick Farm. Awkwardly drawn but has enough speed and worth thought.
ILB
Jumped at $17.00 and was well beaten when 7th last run at Warwick Farm. Has good tactical speed and will be nicely positioned. Best to watch and see.
RP
Fair effort when just under 3l seventh to Manukau at Warwick Farm over 5½f (handicap) two weeks ago.
RSIS
Was 16/1 and couldn't maintain the pace when 7th last run at Warwick Farm. Has plenty of early pace.
Career
9: 2-2-1
Rating · IRD
81
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
2: 1-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Gosford
1: 0-1-0
Track Doomben
1: 0-0-1
Track Kembla Grange
4: 2-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1300m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1500m
3: 1-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-1-0
Going Soft
5: 2-0-1
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 26% in Last 100 Rides
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 9%
Jockey Booking
Positive
Mollie Fitzgerald 48% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 47%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 29%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 44% Profit on Turnover
Hot Jockey
Positive
Mollie Fitzgerald in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 48%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 56%
AAP
Resuming (18-weeks). Easy winner Kembla Grange first-up last prep while brought back with a Rosehill trial. This is no soft return in top yard and drawn to effect.
ILB
First up from a break of 18 weeks and picked up nicely to win first up last preparation at Kembla Grange. Possesses good finishing speed. Dropping in grade. Definite contender.
RP
Not beaten that far over 1m at Sunshine Coast (Group 3) in July; layoff to overcome; should be thereabouts if finding her best form and down in grade.
RSIS
Resuming and strong effort to the line to win resuming last preparation at Kembla Grange. Expected to be flashing home. Back in an easier grade. Down in trip. Strong claims in this.
Career
15: 4-3-1
Rating · IRD
82
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
3: 1-0-0
Second-up
2: 1-1-0
Third-up
2: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-1-0
Track Canberra
3: 0-0-1
Track Canterbury
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
5: 1-1-0
Distance 1460m
3: 2-1-0
Distance 1600m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
11: 3-2-1
Going Soft
4: 1-1-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 19% better than Career Avg.
Key Rider
Positive
Damon Budler 45% above market expected in L100 Rides
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 45%
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
First-up (24-weeks). Won twice on country tracks last prep but this looks a tough return.
ILB
Fresh after a break. Jumped at $13.00 and didn't attack the line when 6th last run at this venue and dropping back to a shorter trip. Reasonable chance.
RP
A proven winner with a career wins-runs record of 4-16; held in sixth over 1m1½f here (handicap) in May; returns from a layoff here; not hard to turn elsewhere.
RSIS
First run back after a break. Was 12/1 and gave away some ground when 6th last time at this track and dropping in distance. Should be in the finish.
Career
9: 2-2-0
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
3: 0-2-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Gosford
1: 1-0-0
Track Illawarra Grange
2: 0-1-0
Track Hawkesbury
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1100m
3: 0-1-0
Distance 1150m
2: 0-1-0
Going Good
5: 1-1-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 1-1-0
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 33%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 56%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note
AAP
Got back, never a serious danger but not disgraced at Warwick Farm. Leaning towards others here.
ILB
Jumped at $81.00 and below par when 9th last time at Warwick Farm. Interesting to see the blinkers go on for the first time. Considerable improvement needed.
RP
Didn't run too badly when out of the frame at Warwick Farm (beaten just over 3l) over 5½f (handicap) last month; hard enough to fancy as needs headgear to provoke some improvement.
RSIS
Was 80/1 and below par when 9th last run at Warwick Farm. Interesting gear change of blinkers on first time.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Offpace
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -25% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 32%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 8%
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
In Form
Positive
Racing in top form recently
AAP
Resuming (18-weeks). In top order last prep and given two trials. Acid test now but respect stable.
ILB
Fresh after a break. Ran on hard when winning last start at Taree but challenged by more formidable competitors.
RSIS
Resuming after a break. Was eating up the ground late when winning last run at Taree but competing in a more challenging grade.
Career
5: 1-0-0
Rating · IRD
92
Speed map
Leader
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 1-0-0
Track Hawkesbury
1: 0-0-0
Track Rosehill
1: 0-0-0
Track Canterbury
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1100m
4: 0-0-0
Distance 1250m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
3: 1-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 30% better than Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Positive
Tommy Berry 32% above market expected in L100 Rides
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 6% POT in L100 Runners
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Track Stats
Positive
Excels at this track
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Battled home into 4th in the small field at Hawkesbury after speccing from $6.50 into $4.80. Sticky draw to negotiate. Place only.
ILB
Jumped at $4.80 and weakened under pressure when 4th last start at Hawkesbury and up against tougher rivals. Should jump out and bowl along.
RP
Brings winning C&D form to the table; out of the frame (beaten just under 4l in fourth) over 5½f at Hawkesbury (handicap) 17 days ago; possible squeak with so many of these having something to prove and had excuses last time (crowded).
RSIS
Started 4/1 and faded to finish 4th last run at Hawkesbury and facing a stronger class. Should muster plenty of early pace.
Career
9: 2-1-1
Rating · IRD
78
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
3: 1-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-1-0
Third-up
2: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Wyong
1: 0-0-0
Track Randwick
1: 0-0-0
Track Gosford
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1350m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
4: 1-1-1
Going Soft
5: 1-0-0
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 8%
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 58%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 37%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 56%
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Resuming (17-weeks). Tuned up with a couple of trials and has won first-up but turned in some below par runs last preparation. Betting.
ILB
First up after a break. Started at $6.00 and weakened to finish 7th last start at Newcastle and facing a stronger grade. Has not placed in multiple barrier trials. Watch the betting.
RP
Finished seventh, beaten 8l, over 7f at Newcastle (handicap) in July; largely disappointing since successful in a handicap at Muswellbrook in January; returns from a layoff; others are preferred.
RSIS
Fresh today after a break. Started 5/1 and couldn't stay in touch when 7th last start at Newcastle and racing in stronger company. Unplaced in multiple trials. Not at all out of this race.