Pakenham (VIC) horses tips & previews

15 Nov, 2:47 am AEDT

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Pakenham (VIC), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Fri 13 Nov, 11:00 am AEDT

Meetings · Fri, 13 NovPakenham (VIC)Change

Race 8 — Ladbrokes New Betslip (Bm66) 1400m · jumps Fri 13 Nov, 9:45 pm AEDT

Race preview

Pakenham hosts the Ladbrokes New Betslip at 9:45 pm AEDT over 1400 metres in SOFT5 going with showers about. Little Richo is shortest in the win market, with Sumo Sandy next and Light Moves third. The form tells you this is a genuine three-way affair at the top. Little Richo brings back-to-back wins, most recently dominating at Pakenham Synthetic by six lengths before that. Sumo Sandy showed real grit at Cranbourne over 1200 metres three runs back, finishing third after a lengthy absence, and the form comment rates him a strong case in this company at the step up in distance. Light Moves holds a rating of 93 and won over this trip at Pakenham; he comes in fresher off a sound small-field performance at Mornington and strips in better shape.

Little Richo and jockey Damien Thornton with trainer J D Sadler combine at plus-104 per cent above market expectation. The horse chases a hat-trick and has won two of three at Pakenham. Barrier 10 is not ideal, but his onpace speed map should find room early. Sumo Sandy and his crew have struggled recently—the stable's strike rate sits at just 6 per cent—yet the horse's form prior to that dip was quality, and the extra 200 metres suits his leader role. Blue Bandit ran on hard last start over this track and trip, finishing fourth in SOFT5 going, and rates a real chance in the exotics.

Warchime sits well down the market but Dylan Dunn is running hot, outperforming career average by 41 per cent across his last 100 rides and sitting 49 per cent above expected value. The onpace brigade—Little Richo, Blue Bandit, Warchime, Hey Bella, Light Moves, and Jewel Bay—will likely control the early splits. Zourain won last start and his jockey-trainer combo outperforms by 245 per cent; from barrier 11 he will need a bit of luck, but he rates a real chance at odds.

Race notes

3yo+,BM66,BM66 HCP,Benchmark 66
SOFT5
Showers
11 runners

Shortest win price

Little Richo (6)

3.50

Most career wins

Zourain and Warchime

6 each

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Backmarker

2Ruakaka Raider

Midfield

5Katsumi Orochi

Offpace

1Zourain
8Let It Beel

Onpace

6Little Richo
10Hey Bella
11Light Moves
7Blue Bandit
9Warchime
14Jewel Bay

Leader

4Sumo Sandy

Zourain · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are out performing market expectations by 245%
Ruakaka Raider · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are out performing market expectations by 42%
Sumo Sandy · Negative
Trainer Recent
Camp struggling with S/R just 6%
Katsumi Orochi · Negative
Rider
Negative rider change today

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace

1ZourainJ: Dylan Dean·T: R D Griffiths1164.5kg4 5 1 9 128: 6-1-3$13.00$3.40

Career

28: 6-1-3

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed80%
Rating60%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
5: 0-1-0
Second-up
4: 1-0-1
Third-up
4: 0-0-2
Fourth-up
4: 3-0-0
Track Moonee Valley
1: 1-0-0
Track Flemington
4: 1-0-0
Track Geelong
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
7: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1440m
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
3: 1-0-0
Going Soft
12: 4-0-1
Going Good
13: 1-1-2

Last starts

1Pakenham1400m30 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT5-1
9Geelong1400m21 Oct 2026 · 3UP BM66 HCP · GOOD48.55L
1Bendigo1400m4 Oct 2026 · 3UP BM62 HCP · SOFT60L
5Seymour1200m10 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT54.33L
4Seymour1200m27 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · HEAVY80.9L
5Caulfield Heath1500m8 Aug 2026 · 3UP BM70 HCP · SOFT63.9L
13Flemington1410m1 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD37.7L
1Seymour1300m19 July 2026 · 2yo+ · HEAVY9-0.8

Insights

Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 245%
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Track Stats
Positive
Excels at this track
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Racing in great heart. Strong win from just off the leaders this course over this trip. Claiming apprentice engaged again. Fit from racing, can make his presence felt again with even breaks.

ILB

Dashed home to win last start around here. Jockey Dylan Dean and trainer Robbie Griffiths enjoy a strong success rate. The large claim from Dylan Dean should help. Sound chance.

C&D winner including when successful by 1l 14 days ago; yet to taste defeat over this C&D, winning on all two attempts; definitely of interest.

RSIS

Flew home to win last start at this track. Jockey Dylan Dean consistently rides well for this stable. Large claim helps.

2Ruakaka RaiderJ: Daniel Stackhouse·T: Ms C Alderson162kg8 13 3 4 823: 4-2-2$21.00$3.90

Career

23: 4-2-2

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating80%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
4: 0-1-0
Second-up
3: 1-0-0
Third-up
3: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-1-1
Track Geelong
2: 2-0-0
Track Sale
2: 1-1-0
Track Caulfield
6: 1-0-1
Distance 1423m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1600m
6: 1-0-1
Distance 1700m
2: 1-0-0
Going Good
8: 2-1-0
Going Soft
15: 2-1-2

Last starts

8Mornington2400m26 Sept 2026 · H WHITE · SOFT55.06L
4Sandown2400m2 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT56.8L
3Caulfield2000m15 Aug 2026 · BM78 · SOFT60.9L
13Sandown1600m22 July 2026 · BM74 · SOFT67.8L
8Caulfield1700m11 July 2026 · BM84 · SOFT75L
8Flemington1420m20 June 2026 · BM84 · SOFT78.8L
12Flemington1600m6 Nov 2025 · BM 80 HCP · GOOD35.5L
1Geelong1500m23 Oct 2025 · Benchmark 78 · SOFT7-0.5

Insights

Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 42%
Hot Trainer
Positive
Cindy Alderson in good form, out performing market 33%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 23% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 11%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Dist Drop
Negative
Distance decrease from last start
Fresh
Positive
Freshened up. Had a break of 42-60 days

Comments

AAP

Let-up (48-days). Well back and never a factor at Mornington over longer assignment. Could get into the placings.

ILB

Back from a let up. Just average when 8th last start at Mornington but up against a less competitive field. Will be motoring home late. Drawn the rails. Capable type.

Out of the frame when eighth in a Listed handicap at Mornington 48 days ago; holds major claims as shown he can be competitive fairly recently and lower class is a plus.

RSIS

Let up. Not up to scratch when 8th last start at Mornington but matched against a less competitive field. Has good finishing pace. Must be considered here.

3OroveroScratched12––––

Career

11: 2-3-2

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating100%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
5: 1-0-2
Track Cranbourne
2: 1-1-0
Track Sandown
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1600m
5: 1-1-1
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
9: 2-3-2

Last starts

3Pakenham1600m6 Mar 2026 · 3UP BM70 HCP · GOOD41.9L
2Caulfield Heath1600m18 Feb 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD40.1L
3Pakenham1400m23 Jan 2026 · BM66 · GOOD32.8L
6Flemington1600m5 July 2025 · 3Y QUALITY · SOFT68.1L
1Cranbourne1600m22 June 2025 · BM64 HCP · GOOD4-1
7Sandown1600m24 May 2025 · 3Y HCP · SOFT54.3L
2Cranbourne1300m9 May 2025 · 2UP CL1 HCP · GOOD42L
1Pakenham1200m17 Apr 2025 · Maiden · GOOD4-0.75

Insights

Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Drawn Poorly
Negative
Unfavourable barrier draw
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Racing Strongly
Positive
Racing in great shape

Comments

AAP

Resuming (36-weeks). In the minors first-up last campaign. Raced in stiffer company last prep. Looks suitably placed in this line-up.

ILB

Resuming after a break of 36 weeks. Good run when placing 3rd beaten by 2L last start here but bit of extra work to do with more weight.

Has been consistent of late; has won at this course; couldn't quite get the job done when 14-5 third here over 1m (handicap) in March; has had some time off.

RSIS

Back after a break of 36 weeks. Flashed home late into 3rd beaten by 2L last run at this track but will have to carry more weight.

4Sumo SandyJ: Jett Stanley·T: T Busuttin & N Young760kg1 2 4 12 310: 2-3-2$4.20$1.65

Career

10: 2-3-2

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo40%
Early Speed80%
Rating60%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
3: 1-1-1
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Sandown
1: 0-1-0
Track Kerang
1: 1-0-0
Track Pakenham
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1400m
2: 1-1-0
Distance 1600m
6: 1-2-0
Going Good
10: 2-3-2

Last starts

3Cranbourne1200m23 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD33L
12Pakenham1600m6 Mar 2026 · 3UP BM70 HCP · GOOD423L
4Cranbourne1600m27 Feb 2026 · 3UP BM66 HCP · GOOD41.9L
2Cranbourne1600m6 Feb 2026 · 0 - 66 · GOOD30.5L
1Pakenham1600m16 Jan 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD4-1.3
1Kerang1400m27 Dec 2025 · 3yo+ · GOOD3-5.8
3Cranbourne2080m23 May 2025 · 3yo+ · GOOD34.3L
5Cranbourne1600m2 May 2025 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD35.4L

Insights

Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 6%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -21% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 50%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 7%
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Form At Track
Positive
1 time winner here at Pakenham
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Restrained from wide gate, let down late into the minors at Cranbourne after lengthy absence. Will be fitter second-up and rise in trip a plus. Makes a strong case in this company.

ILB

Did well to run into 3rd last run at Cranbourne. Displays good tactical speed. Capable of winning this.

Solid effort when beaten 3l to finish third at Cranbourne over 6f (handicap) last month; a previous winner here; stable has been going through a quiet spell.

RSIS

Finished strongly when 3rd beaten by 3L last run at Cranbourne. Has shown early pace in races to date. Good chance of taking this out.

5Katsumi OrochiJ: Lachlan Neindorf·T: A & S Freedman959.5kg11 3 2 5 97: 1-1-2$15.00$3.80

Career

7: 1-1-2

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed80%
Rating100%
Closing Speed20%

Record

First-up
3: 1-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-1-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 1-0-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-1
Track Caulfield
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1347m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
4: 0-1-2
Going Soft
3: 1-0-0

Last starts

9Caulfield Heath1500m16 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD45.4L
5Geelong1347m28 Aug 2026 · 3UP BM62 HCP · SOFT74.9L
2Sandown1600m10 Dec 2025 · 3yo+ · GOOD41.3L
3Cranbourne1400m22 Nov 2025 · 3Y HCP · GOOD33L
11Flemington1400m4 Nov 2025 · 3yo · SOFT56.7L
1Pakenham1200m17 Oct 2025 · 3UP MDN-SW · SOFT5-0.8
3Caulfield1100m8 Feb 2025 · Set Weights · GOOD42.46L

Insights

Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -33% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 21%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Fresh
Positive
Freshened up. Had a break of 42-60 days
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Let-up (58-days). Led, gave up the ghost quickly in 3yo+ (Bm70) at Caulfield Heath when second-up. 3rd in a recent Mornington jump-out. Sharper now, has some claims.

ILB

Let up. Started at $8.00 and gave away some ground when 9th last run at Caulfield Heath. Has the talent to rebound quickly and competing in a less challenging grade. Can take this out.

Last of nine over 7½f at Caulfield (handicap) two months ago; a course winner; this line-up contains some strong opposition so easy to oppose.

RSIS

Back from a freshen up. Started at 7/1 and couldn't stay in touch when 9th last time at Caulfield Heath. May see an upturn in form. Forward showing expected.

6Little RichoJ: Damien Thornton·T: J D Sadler1059.5kg4 3 5 1 15: 2-0-1$3.50$1.50

Career

5: 2-0-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed80%
Rating40%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Pakenham
3: 1-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
3: 1-0-1
Track Pakenham Synthetic
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1400m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-1
Going Soft
2: 1-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 1-0-0

Last starts

1Pakenham1600m30 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT5-0.75
1Pakenham Synthetic1400m5 Oct 2026 · 4yo+ · SYNTHETIC-6
5Mornington1000m4 Sept 2026 · 4UP MDN-SW · SOFT54.6L
3Pakenham1200m12 Mar 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD42.3L
4Pakenham1000m26 Feb 2026 · 3Y MDN SW · GOOD42.1L

Insights

Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 104%
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Consecutive Wins
Positive
Has strung together a few races in a row
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
In Form
Positive
Racing in top form recently

Comments

AAP

Chasing hat-trick. Bolted in at Pakenham Synthetic two back. Sheer display of grit and determination this course. Can back it up.

ILB

Ran on hard when winning last run here. Maintaining a perfect record the last 2 starts. Has the speed to overcome the wide barrier. Prefer a race with softer competition.

Bids for hat-trick and has kicked on in his last couple of races; scored by a slim margin in a handicap last month; runs for only the second time in a handicap; needs to be respected.

RSIS

Ran home strongly to win last time at this venue. Maintaining a perfect record the last 2 runs. Has the early pace to burn across from the wide draw.

7Blue BanditJ: Jye Mcneil·T: Andrea Leek659kg7 2 13 9 417: 3-2-2$7.50$2.50

Career

17: 3-2-2

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Track Mornington
1: 0-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
6: 2-0-1
Distance 1200m
3: 1-0-1
Distance 1247m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
6: 1-1-1
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
8: 2-1-1
Going Soft
7: 1-1-1

Last starts

4Pakenham1400m30 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT51.55L
9Ballarat1200m9 Oct 2026 · 3UP BM66 HCP · GOOD45L
13Bendigo1500m12 Aug 2026 · 3UP BM66 HCP · HEAVY950.3L
2Sandown1400m2 Aug 2026 · BM66 · SOFT70.8L
7Cranbourne1400m16 July 2026 · 2yo+ · HEAVY96.1L
2Sale1429m9 July 2026 · 2yo+ · HEAVY91.5L
9Sale1411m28 June 2026 · BM62 · HEAVY84.9L
12Caulfield Heath1500m17 June 2026 · BM66 · SOFT64.5L

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Midfield and worked home solidly this course over this trip. A few runs under his belt this campaign, one for exotics.

ILB

At $11.00 outpaced some runners late when 4th last run at this track. Good to see Jye Mcneil is jumping on. Has some claims.

Winning form over C&D; form has been a bit up and down of late; fair effort when behind the reopposing Zourain last month; easy enough to take on as a few rivals look in good form.

RSIS

Started 10/1 and ran past a few when 4th last run at this track. Jye Mcneil is a key engagement. Betting is the best guide.

8Let It BeelJ: Luke Nolen·T: P G Moody & Katherine Coleman259kg9 1 2 3 514: 2-3-4$8.50$2.70

Career

14: 2-3-4

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo40%
Early Speed80%
Rating60%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
4: 1-1-2
Second-up
3: 1-1-0
Third-up
3: 0-1-1
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-1
Track Sandown
4: 0-0-1
Track Pakenham Synthetic
1: 0-0-1
Track Mornington
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1415m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1590m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1600m
4: 0-1-0
Going Good
8: 1-3-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-1
Going Soft
3: 1-0-2

Last starts

5Sale1200m25 Oct 2026 · 3UP BM70 HCP · HEAVY106.3L
3Pakenham Synthetic1400m2 Oct 2026 · 3UP BM66 HCP · SYNTHETIC3.3L
2Sale1415m13 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD40.3L
1Sale1200m21 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT6-0.3
9Mornington1600m18 Apr 2026 · 3Y-SWP · GOOD44.8L
5Sandown1600m6 Apr 2026 · 3Y BM66 · GOOD45.5L
1Cranbourne1400m20 Mar 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD3-1.3
3Sandown1300m25 Feb 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · SOFT51.2L

Insights

Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 46% lower than Career Avg.
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 6%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -28% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 49%
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 55% in L100 rides
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 2
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Wet To Dry
Negative
Coming from a wet to dry (Heavy 8 to Good 4) track may prove difficult

Comments

AAP

Went home tamely when up to its hocks in mud at Sale at $10. One for multiples.

ILB

Jumped at $10.00 and edged past some when finishing 5th last run at Sale on a heavy surface and can find a nice position from the draw. Should go very close.

Was held in fifth over 6f at Sale (handicap) last month; unlikely to achieve more than just a supporting role as has a lot on his plate here.

RSIS

Started at 9/1 and made up ground when 5th last run at Sale on a heavy rated track and gets a favourable stall. Producing consistent results recently. One of the punters top hopes at a very generous price.

9WarchimeJ: Dylan Dunn·T: Brett Scott359kg6 4 6 5 1141: 6-3-2$101.00$13.00

Career

41: 6-3-2

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed20%
Rating20%
Closing Speed20%

Record

First-up
6: 1-1-0
Second-up
5: 0-1-0
Third-up
5: 2-0-0
Fourth-up
5: 0-0-1
Track Bendigo
1: 0-0-1
Track Ararat
1: 1-0-0
Track Moonee Valley
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
6: 1-1-0
Distance 1590m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2021m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
27: 5-2-1
Going Heavy
4: 1-0-1
Going Soft
9: 0-0-0

Last starts

11Caulfield2000m9 May 2026 · 3UP BM78 HCP · SOFT724.9L
5Werribee2238m24 Apr 2026 · 3UP BM62 HCP · GOOD43.1L
6Ballarat2000m3 Apr 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD33.3L
4Cranbourne2025m13 Mar 2026 · 3UP BM70 HCP · GOOD41L
6Cranbourne2025m20 Feb 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD35.2L
4Cranbourne2060m30 Jan 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD32L
1Seymour2021m15 Jan 2026 · 3UP BM62 HCP · GOOD3-1.5
11Sandown1600m10 Dec 2025 · 3yo+ · GOOD49.4L

Insights

Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 41% in Last 100 Rides
Key Rider
Positive
Dylan Dunn 49% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 99%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Dist Drop
Negative
Distance decrease from last start
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

First-up (26-weeks). Will have much longer trips in mind. Pitted against better company last prep. Expect will need this.

ILB

First up from a spell of 26 weeks. Jumped at $61.00 and didn't threaten when 11th last start at Caulfield but back in an easier grade. Back in trip. Needs a lot of luck in this race.

Generally modest form since handicap success at Seymour in January; finished tailed off over 1m2f at Caulfield (handicap) six months ago; has had some time off; this is competitive and is passed over.

RSIS

Fresh from a break of 26 weeks. Started 60/1 and weakened to finish 11th last run at Caulfield but facing weaker opposition. Down in trip. Up in weight.

10Hey BellaJ: Brad Rawiller·T: Luke Oliver558.5kg2 1 1 4 423: 5-3-4$10.00$3.00

Career

23: 5-3-4

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
5: 1-1-1
Second-up
4: 0-0-2
Third-up
4: 1-1-1
Fourth-up
4: 1-1-0
Track Kyneton
1: 0-1-0
Track Wangaratta
1: 0-0-0
Track Sandown
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
4: 0-1-1
Distance 1514m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1600m
8: 3-0-1
Going Good
11: 1-3-2
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
11: 4-0-2

Last starts

4Pakenham1600m29 May 2026 · 2UP BM70 HCP · HEAVY81.3L
4Pakenham1600m22 May 2026 · 2UP BM62 HCP · SOFT61.4L
1Pakenham1600m1 May 2026 · 0-66 · GOOD4-1.5
1Pakenham1600m9 Apr 2026 · 0 - 66 · SOFT5-1.8
2Geelong1750m22 Mar 2026 · BM56 · GOOD40.3L
1Stony Creek1600m8 Mar 2026 · 0 - 56 · SOFT6-1
3Yarra Valley1514m21 Feb 2026 · 0 - 56 · GOOD43.3L
2Kyneton1454m31 Jan 2026 · 0 - 56 · GOOD31.3L

Insights

Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 16% in Last 100 Rides
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 4%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -35% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 51%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 60% Profit on Turnover
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 7%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance

Comments

AAP

Resuming (24-weeks). In the minors first-up last campaign. Capable fresh but will have longer trips in mind.

ILB

First up from a break of 24 weeks and finished well when 2nd first up last preparation at Kyneton. Has plenty of early speed. Watch for a sign in the market.

Finished fourth in May albeit only beaten 1½l over 1m (handicap); consistent performer; has won here previously; returns from a layoff; others appeal more with this looking like a hot contest.

RSIS

Resuming and improved to place when 2nd resuming last preparation at Kyneton. Should be going forward early. 4 wins from 11 starts have been on soft going. Watch for a sign in the market.

11Light MovesJ: Thomas Stockdale·T: M Price & M Kent Jnr858kg5 1 2 5 25: 1-2-0$7.50$2.50

Career

5: 1-2-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo40%
Early Speed100%
Rating80%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
2: 0-1-0
Track Mornington
1: 0-1-0
Track Pakenham
3: 1-1-0
Track CurrentTrack
3: 1-1-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1400m
2: 1-1-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 1-2-0

Last starts

2Mornington1200m22 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD30.35L
5Caulfield Heath1500m18 Mar 2026 · 3Y BM66 · GOOD45.5L
2Pakenham1400m6 Mar 2026 · 3Y BM64 · GOOD43L
1Pakenham1400m19 Feb 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD4-0.5
5Pakenham1200m29 Jan 2026 · 3-5Y MDN-SW · GOOD46.3L

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -31% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 21%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Sound performance in small field at Mornington off long break. Strips in better shape. Winner this trip. Can make his presence felt.

ILB

Just shy of the win last start at Mornington and putting a tidy record together so far. Should jump out and bowl along. Very tidy performer.

C&D has proven suitable before; went close when runner-up over 6f at Mornington (handicap) last month; should not be ruled out.

RSIS

Was agonizingly close last time at Mornington and good career start. Likely to be well placed early. Very tidy performer.

12Lots Of TimeScratched9––––

Career

9: 2-0-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed20%
Rating40%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
3: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-0
Track Bendigo
2: 0-0-0
Track Bairnsdale
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1419m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
3: 1-0-1
Going Heavy
3: 1-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-0

Last starts

6Pakenham1200m30 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT52.95L
9Sale1746m9 July 2026 · 2yo+ · HEAVY911.2L
4Cranbourne1600m21 June 2026 · BM62 · SOFT73.2L
1Sale1400m10 June 2026 · Benchmark 66 · HEAVY8-0.1
3Sale1419m17 May 2026 · 0-62 · GOOD43.2L
12Mornington1500m28 Sept 2025 · 0 - 62 · GOOD47.7L
1Bairnsdale1600m7 Sept 2025 · 3yo+ · GOOD3-0.2
5Bendigo1300m14 Aug 2025 · F&M MDN-SW · SOFT62.2L

Insights

Trainer SR
Negative
Enver Jusufovic striking at just 7%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 43%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 7%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Okay at latest when settled back. Better conditioned. Goes into wider exotics.

ILB

Came in 6th last start around here.

Posted respectable effort when beaten 3l over 6f here (handicap) last month; others more persuasive with several rivals in good nick.

RSIS

Finished 6th last run at this venue.

13Russian FrontScratched14––––

Career

38: 4-9-2

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating80%
Closing Speed60%

Record

First-up
6: 1-1-0
Second-up
5: 0-3-0
Third-up
4: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
2: 0-1-0
Track Cranbourne
2: 0-1-1
Track Moonee Valley
3: 0-1-0
Track Sandown
4: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
15: 0-4-1
Distance 1147m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1215m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
23: 3-6-1
Going Heavy
3: 0-1-0
Going Soft
11: 0-2-1

Last starts

2Pakenham1400m30 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT51L
5Kyneton1479m20 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD31.85L
1Pakenham Synthetic1400m5 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · SYNTHETIC-3.5
4Moe1200m24 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD42.1L
4Geelong1300m11 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD41.6L
5Sale1200m21 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT62.9L
5Moe1200m13 Aug 2026 · 3UP BM56 HCP · HEAVY107.5L
4Sandown1200m2 Aug 2026 · BM66 · SOFT73.8L

Insights

Better for last start
Positive
Improved with last few runs

Comments

AAP

Gallant display this track over this journey. Home track advantage but awkwardly drawn this time. Very fit, capable of making an impact if he gets the breaks.

ILB

Looked good when 2nd last run at this venue.

Behind Zourain when on the premises, finishing second 14 days ago; produced a string of consistent efforts; C&D has proven suitable before.

RSIS

Tidy run when 2nd last run at this track.

14Jewel BayJ: Nadia Daniels·T: Andrea Leek457.5kg6 12 9 6 1037: 5-5-6$23.00$4.20

Career

37: 5-5-6

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
6: 2-2-1
Second-up
5: 0-2-2
Third-up
5: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
4: 1-0-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
3: 0-0-1
Track Morphettville
3: 2-1-0
Distance 975m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
8: 1-4-0
Distance 1400m
8: 1-1-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
15: 4-1-1
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-1

Last starts

10Pakenham1400m30 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT54.5L
6Cranbourne1400m23 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD37.55L
9Geelong1500m11 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD45.3L
12Sale1717m21 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT69.8L
6Caulfield Heath1500m8 Aug 2026 · 3UP BM70 HCP · SOFT64.7L
4Cranbourne1400m16 July 2026 · 2yo+ · HEAVY93.7L
1Cranbourne1400m21 June 2026 · BM62 · SOFT7-1
5Mornington1200m8 June 2026 · BM70 · SOFT73.2L

Insights

Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 46% better than Career Avg.
Key Rider
Positive
Nadia Daniels 62% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Key Jockey
Positive
Nadia Daniels winning at 44% POT in last 100 rides
Form At Track
Negative
Yet to win here
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature

Comments

AAP

Sent out $21 when never got into the race this venue over this journey. Needs a form spike.

ILB

Started at $21.00 and not up to standard when 10th last run at the track but suited by the weight drop. Place hope.

Useful at this level; finished tenth of 12 last month.

RSIS

Was 20/1 and average effort when 10th last time around here but gets some weight relief.

Odds correct as at Fri 13 Nov, 9:50 pm AEDT. Odds can change.

Past meetings

Fri 30 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 8 races