Shortest win price
Jarbardar (1)
4.00
Pakenham hosts a Class 1 three-year-old-plus handicap over 1400 metres on a Soft 5 track with showers forecast. The 8:15 pm jump is set up for Jarbardar as the shortest-priced runner, with Gazerati next up, followed by Brass In Pocket and Lomu. The leader's group includes three runners — Jarbardar, In A Tizzy, and Brass In Pocket — who will battle for early position, while Gazerati and Diggers Aim sit in midfield and Balance shapes as a backmarker.
Jarbardar runs first-up in the market but comes with alarm bells. The trainer T & C Mcevoy is striking at just 8 per cent, and this jockey-trainer combo is losing 28 per cent of profit on turnover across their last 100 runs. Form-wise, Jarbardar wasn't beaten far over 1100 metres at Caulfield two back but flatted when the pressure went on second-up at the same track. Gazerati offers more intrigue: she posted the fastest finishing sectionals at Bendigo last start when run down for second by two lengths, and she has a Pakenham record of 1–0–0 from two attempts. A negative rider change is flagged, though, which clouds the picture. Brass In Pocket maps well at this venue, outperforming market expectations, and comes fresh off a Geelong attempt where she found a forward spot but delivered a very lacklustre finish off a long spell.
Lomu jumped off as fourth favourite and demands respect. The import won at Pakenham over 1200 metres on Soft 5 in a three-year-old maiden-sweepstakes, emerging from midfield to get up in the final strides. Brad Rawiller is back in the saddle and rates 16 per cent better than his career average of late. The added 200 metres should suit, and Lomu's form thread — winning, then running second at Seymour by just over two lengths — frames him as a key player in this line-up. Balance deserves a look further back: the stable is overperforming the market by 29 per cent and has struck at 12 per cent profit on turnover in their last 100 runners.
Shortest win price
Jarbardar (1)
4.00
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offmidfield
Midfield
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Jarbardar · Negative
Trainer SR
T & C McEvoy striking at just 8%
Gazerati · Positive
Fast Finisher
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Balance · Positive
Stable In Form
Stable going well. Out performing market by 29%
Cool Savanna · Negative
Jockey Booking
Less suitable jockey engaged
Career
4: 1-2-0
Rating · IRD
97
Speed map
Leader
First-up
2: 1-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Wagga
1: 1-0-0
Track Caulfield
3: 0-2-0
Distance 1100m
2: 0-2-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
3: 1-1-0
Going Soft
1: 0-1-0
Trainer SR
Negative
T & C McEvoy striking at just 8%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -28% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 50%
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 5%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Not beaten far here two back over 1100m. Sent forward but flat-footed when things got serious at Caulfield second-up. Worth another look.
ILB
Was $8.50 and folded up in the straight when 10th last time at Caulfield. Should improve from the last run and competing at a lower class. Promising career start. Has strong claims.
RP
Finished tenth, beaten 6l, last month at Caulfield in a Group 3; lightly raced with this just his fifth appearance; is passed over despite dropping in class.
RSIS
Started at 15/2 and didn't threaten when 10th last run at Caulfield. Capable of a strong comeback and up against weaker rivals. Has the pace to overcome the wide draw. Good enough chance at a very tempting price.
Career
7: 1-2-0
Rating · IRD
89
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 0-1-0
Track Moe
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
2: 1-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 1-2-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Track Stats
Positive
Excels at this track
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Knuckled down for second at Bendigo first run back when supported. Strips in better shape. Can play a role with even breaks.
ILB
Finished with intent when 2nd last start at Bendigo. Modest contender.
RP
Produced a string of consistent efforts; has won previously at this course; solid effort when beaten 2l to finish runner-up over 6½f at Bendigo (handicap) dropped back in distance four weeks ago.
RSIS
Managed to run into 2nd last run at Bendigo.
Career
5: 1-1-0
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
2: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 1-0-0
Track Sale
1: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
3: 0-1-0
Going Good
3: 1-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-1-0
Stable In Form
Positive
Stable going well. Out performing market by 29%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 12% POT in L100 Runners
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 8%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Just missed at Pakenham Synthetic 5 Oct. Forwardly placed, retreated at Sale. Drops in grade. Can show more here.
ILB
Started $8.50 and didn't attack the line when 8th last time at Sale on a heavy surface. Should improve here. Displaying good ability this campaign. Good chance in this.
RP
Last of eight over 6f at Sale (handicap) despite first-time blinkers last month; more than capable if on song so could go well.
RSIS
Was 15/2 and weakened to finish 8th last start at Sale. Capable of bouncing back. Producing consistent results lately. Will be motoring home late. Goes well and could be a value opportunity.
Career
5: 1-0-0
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
2: 1-0-0
Track Bendigo
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1312m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1343m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 1-0-0
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -35% POT in their L100 Races
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Wet To Dry
Negative
Coming from a wet to dry (Heavy 8 to Good 4) track may prove difficult
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Ordinary performance in small field in testing conditions at Ballarat off long spell. Better conditioned. Fringe place hope at best.
ILB
Was $8.50 and unsatisfactory performance when 7th last time at Ballarat. Hard to see this being competitive today.
RP
Last of seven at Ballarat last week; easy enough to take on.
RSIS
At 15/2 subpar when 7th last run at Ballarat.
Career
10: 1-2-2
Rating · IRD
74
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Pakenham
5: 1-2-0
Track CurrentTrack
5: 1-2-0
Track Sale
2: 0-0-1
Distance 2580m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 3000m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
10: 1-2-2
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 10%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 31%
Wide Draw
Negative
Likely to get caught wide
Dist Drop
Negative
Distance decrease from last start
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
First-up (35-weeks). Lone career win was over 2500m at Pakenham in last campaign. Has an adverse draw and rising in weight for return. Big challenge off the long break.
ILB
Resuming after a 35 week break. Was competitive when 3rd last start at Sandown but back in trip. Large claim helps. Difficult to warm to at present.
RP
Missed the frame (beaten 7l into third) at Sandown over 1m7f (handicap) in March; a previous winner here; returns from a layoff; he can be taken on.
RSIS
First run back after a break of 35 weeks. Looked good when 3rd last start at Sandown but back to a shorter trip. Liana Wood provides some weight relief.
Career
6: 1-1-2
Rating · IRD
85
Speed map
Leader
First-up
2: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-1
Track Rosehill
2: 0-1-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
3: 1-0-1
Distance 1250m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
4: 1-0-1
Going Soft
2: 0-1-1
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -54% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 21%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 7%
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Broke maiden at Cranbourne 9 Oct. Settled off pace, rallied well but couldn't match winner this track second-up. Suited by the longer assignment now. Stripping fitter, highly rated in this line-up.
ILB
Claimed late when 3rd last start at this track. Has plenty of early speed. Placed at every start this preparation. Possible place chance.
RP
Has shown some recent improvement; minor honours when 11-5 over 6f here (handicap) two weeks ago; needs considering.
RSIS
Set a strong tempo before fading at the finish to place 3rd last start at this venue. Should be going forward early.
Career
6: 1-3-1
Rating · IRD
82
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 1-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
2: 1-1-0
Track Seymour
1: 0-1-0
Track Caulfield
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
4: 1-2-0
Going Good
3: 0-1-1
Going Soft
3: 1-2-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 16% better than Career Avg.
Key Jockey
Positive
Brad Rawiller winning at 8% POT in last 100 rides
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Form At Track
Positive
1 time winner here at Pakenham
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Racing Strongly
Positive
Racing in great shape
AAP
Emerged from midfield to get up in final strides this venue. B Rawiller on again. Added journey should assist. Key player.
ILB
Picked up nicely to win last time at this venue and has drawn to do little work. Has run into the money 4 from 4 attempts this preparation. Will need to elevate.
RP
Best form so far in last two starts; scored narrowly in a maiden, breaking his duck at the sixth time of asking last month; capable of going well.
RSIS
Strong effort to the line to win last time at this venue and drawn well. Has run into the placings at every start in recent runs. Rising in grade.
Career
5: 1-0-2
Rating · IRD
93
Speed map
Leader
First-up
2: 0-0-1
Track Sale
1: 1-0-0
Track Caulfield
1: 0-0-1
Track Sandown
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1213m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1400m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 1-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-2
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 7%
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Rider found a forward spot at Geelong but she put in a very lacklustre finish off long spell. Better conditioned. Can make her presence felt.
ILB
At $3.50 came in 6th last time at Geelong. Capable of a strong comeback and putting a tidy record together. Should race on the speed. Strong prospects.
RP
Ran below market expectations (favourite) when sixth at Geelong last month; easy enough to take on.
RSIS
Odds of 5/2 and finished 6th last time at Geelong. Capable of bouncing back and showing consistent performance in races. Has early pace and positions nicely. Good prospects.
Career
11: 1-0-3
Rating · IRD
76
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
2: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham Synthetic
3: 1-0-0
Track Geelong
3: 0-0-2
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
4: 1-0-0
Distance 1500m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1530m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 0-0-2
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
4: 0-0-1
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 7%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -28% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 29%
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 2
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
First-up (13-weeks). Placed at Geelong first-up last campaign. Not out of this fresh.
ILB
First up after 13 weeks and placed 3rd first up last preparation at Geelong. Has shown early pace in races to date. Can find a nice position from the draw. Will be a difficult test.
RP
Winning form over C&D; didn't live up to market expectations at 11-4 when sixth in August; this looks a decent race so easy to oppose.
RSIS
Resuming and claimed a spot in the placings when 3rd resuming last preparation at Geelong. Should race on the pace. Can find a nice position from the draw.
Career
3: 1-0-0
Rating · IRD
94
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
2: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Morphettville
1: 0-0-0
Track Caulfield
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham Synthetic
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1800m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 1-0-0
Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 46% lower than Career Avg.
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 6%
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -28% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 49%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 55% Profit on Turnover
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 55% in L100 rides
Dist Drop
Negative
Distance decrease from last start
AAP
Broke maiden at Pakenham Synthetic 5 Oct. Not disgraced at Morphettville second-up at $1.60. Coming back in distance should suit. Watch closely.
ILB
Started $1.60 and was well beaten when 6th last start at Morphettville. Can make a comeback and matched against a less competitive field. Finishes off strongly. Down in distance. Rates as one of the key chances.
RP
Failed to live up to market expectations when sixth last month at Morphettville upped to 1m1f in a Listed race; boasts winning form over C&D; lightly raced (this just her fourth race); Luke Nolen a noteworthy booking; much respected as shown she can win fairly recently and dropping in class.
RSIS
Odds of 8/13 and folded up in the straight when 6th last run at Morphettville. Should improve and up against a less competitive field. Shows good closing pace. Will go close.