Shortest win price
Kokeshi (9)
2.80
Welcome to Pakenham for the Edsa Group Mdn Plate over 1200m on a Good 4 track with showers about for the meeting. The win market has Kokeshi heading the early lists, closely followed by Percipient, Heavy Is The Head, and Iftihar rounding out the top end of betting. It is shaping up as a fascinating maiden contest where the numbers and early trends will dictate the play, so let us dive straight into the data and see what jumps off the page for this 7:15 pm AEDT jump.
Taking a closer look at the form behind those shorter prices, Kokeshi comes into calculations following a sound runner-up effort at Ballarat over 1000m where the runner put in some big strides late off a long break. With better conditioning and barrier 2 to suit, Jye McNeil takes the ride and the mare rates a real chance to go one better. Heavy Is The Head has placed on nine career starts, including a strong second at Sale over 1200m on a Heavy 10 where the runner kept coming and just fell short, suggesting this trip suits nicely. Meanwhile, Iftihar brings consistent form this campaign with four minor placings from six starts, including a solid third at Kyneton two back, though the runner found little at the business end after racing on the pace at Mornington.
For those chasing further angles from the speed maps and stable statistics, Cruise On Bye represents Gavin Bedggood's stable which boasts a profitable 32 percentage point POT in the last 100 runners alongside a hot jockey-trainer combination. Percipient catches the eye on debut as a high-priced purchase out of a stakes-winning mare with seconds at the past couple of jump-outs, despite drawing barrier 11. Smart Step adds another dimension with blinkers going on for trainer C W McDonald, who has stable runners going at 12 percentage points of POT in the last 100. There are plenty of intriguing form lines to unpack across the field as the runners ready themselves.
Shortest win price
Kokeshi (9)
2.80
Back left · leaders right
Firststart
Backmarker
Midfield
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Shipping Steel · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Percipient · Negative
Trainer Career
Trainer Career S/R is 9%
Smart Step · Positive
Trainer ROI
Runners from this stable currently going at 12% POT in L100 Runners
Snow Cabin · Negative
Trainer A2E
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 21%
Career
1: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
72
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Stable In Form
Positive
Stable going well. Out performing market by 56%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 35% POT in L100 Runners
AAP
Offered little to catch the eye on debut this venue as an outsider 30 Oct. Experience gained. Place preferred option.
ILB
Jumped at $81.00 and came in 7th last start here but was a debutant last start. Expected to settle towards the rear. Sharp improvement needed.
RP
Beaten on his debut (over 5f here) at 80-1 last month; not dismissed as his experience should be an asset.
RSIS
Started 80/1 and came in 7th last time at the track but having second race start. Likely to get back in the run.
Rating · IRD
92
Speed map
Firststart
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 9%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -44% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 36%
First Starter
Positive
Not raced previously
AAP
Trials (2:0-0-0). $180k purchase. Out of a stakes-winning mare. 2nds at past couple of jump-outs. Draw could be an issue but shouldn't be overlooked on debut.
ILB
3yo by New Bay having first race appearance for trainer Phillip Stokes & Tommy Stokes. Market as guide.
RP
This son of New Bay is having his first start under rules; strong contender as some good aspects to his profile.
RSIS
New Bay 3yo trained by Phillip Stokes & Tommy Stokes having first start. Keep your eye on the market.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Offpace
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Stepping out for only the second time after battling home this course 30 Oct. Took valuable lessons. Only for exotics.
ILB
Started at $11.00 and made ground when closing off to finish 5th last run here and was on debut last time.
RSIS
Started 10/1 and closed off nicely when 5th last start around here and was a debutant last start.
Career
1: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
85
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Moe
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 12% POT in L100 Runners
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Debut effort fair in spread-out finish at Moe 18 Oct. Better for the run. Can play a role.
ILB
Started $9.50 and ran past a few when 4th last run at Moe and having second race start. Could feature here.
RP
Fair debut effort at Moe at 17-2 last month; might be better for the experience although not hard to turn elsewhere.
RSIS
Odds of 17/2 and ran past a few when 4th last run at Moe and was on debut last time. Could feature here.
Rating · IRD
79
Speed map
Firststart
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 21%
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Watch Betting
Negative
If supported, follow in
AAP
Trials (1:0-0-0). 3yo gelding having his first run today. Out of a Wanted mare Cubby. Recent 2nd at a Hillside jump-out. Creates interest on debut.
ILB
Vancouver 3yo having first race start for Anthony Freedman & Sam Freedman. Watch the market.
RP
Yard gets plenty of debutant winners; already gelded; rates a likely contender as some good aspects to his profile.
RSIS
3yo debutant sired by Vancouver for Anthony Freedman & Sam Freedman.
Career
9: 0-1-2
Rating · IRD
92
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Pakenham
2: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
2: 0-0-0
Track Donald
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
3: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
4: 0-1-0
Distance 1209m
1: 0-0-1
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
6: 0-0-2
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 3%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 57%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 60% Profit on Turnover
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Wide Draw
Negative
Likely to get caught wide
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Ready To Strike
Positive
Can be rewarded for recent consistent form
AAP
Kept coming and just fell short at Sale over this distance. Not out of it.
ILB
Ran home into 2nd last time at Sale on a heavy track. Racing consistently this preparation. Can win this.
RP
Missed out by three-quarters of a length at Sale three weeks ago; has taken a step forward the last twice but winless with run of consecutive defeats standing at nine.
RSIS
Did well to place 2nd last start at Sale on a heavy surface. Tracking very well of late. Strong prospects.
Career
1: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -35% POT in their L100 Races
Well beaten LS
Negative
Not competitive last run
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note
AAP
A very soft debut performance this venue as an outsider 30 Oct. Much to learn and others carry more punch.
ILB
Started at $61.00 and faded to finish 9th last run at the track but having second career run. Would not recommend.
RP
Could not finish better than ninth on her debut (close behind Shipping Steel) over 5f (wore cheekpieces) at 66-1 two weeks ago; could improve from first run although a leap forward required to win this.
RSIS
Started at 60/1 and didn't threaten when 9th last start at the track but fitter for debut run.
Career
6: 0-0-4
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Leader
First-up
2: 0-0-2
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Moe
1: 0-0-1
Track Mornington
1: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
3: 0-0-2
Distance 1400m
2: 0-0-2
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1203m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
3: 0-0-2
Going Soft
3: 0-0-2
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 6%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 23%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Form sound so far this campaign. Good effort here two back over 1203m. On pace but found little at the business end at Mornington second-up. Stripping fitter, highly rated in this line-up.
ILB
Started at $11.00 and outmatched towards the finish when 4th last start at Mornington. Should race on the speed. Will be in the finish.
RP
Fair effort when beaten just over 4l, finishing fourth of nine at Mornington last month; has arguably shown improved form the last twice; trainer has been going through a quiet spell; this line-up contains some strong opposition so others make more appeal.
RSIS
Started at 10/1 and was found wanting late when 4th last time at Mornington. Should be going forward early. Will run close.
Career
7: 0-2-0
Rating · IRD
85
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
3: 0-2-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
2: 0-1-0
Track Sandown
1: 0-0-0
Track Moe
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
3: 0-1-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 0-2-0
Going Soft
4: 0-0-0
Trainer SR
Negative
John Moloney striking at just 6%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -24% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 24%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 11%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Put in some big strides late at Ballarat off long break. Better conditioned. Drawn to effect. Can play a role.
ILB
Managed to place 2nd last start at Ballarat and has a good draw. Should come to hand quickly. Can't leave out of your calculations.
RP
Stepped up on her last two starts; good effort when close up at Ballarat over 5f (maiden) last month.
RSIS
Strong run when placing 2nd last time at Ballarat and will try to take advantage of the draw. Expecting to settle positively. Not at all out of this race.
Career
11: 0-1-1
Rating · IRD
73
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
3: 0-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Sale
4: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-0
Track Bairnsdale
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 0-0-1
Going Good
5: 0-0-0
Going Soft
5: 0-0-1
Going Unknown
1: 0-1-0
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 4%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 27%
Map Suits
Positive
Suitable Map, where runners in this position outperform market by 3%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 1
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature
AAP
Well back and never sighted at Traralgon second-up at cricket score odds. New to Pakenham. Keener on others.
ILB
Started $101.00 and well beaten when 10th last start at Traralgon but has drawn the rails. Yet to break maiden status after 11 runs. Not interested.
RP
Finished tenth of 12 over 5½f at Traralgon (maiden) last month; form has been a bit mixed lately and still winless and defeats stacking up (11 on the bounce); this line-up contains some strong opposition so others have more pressing claims.
RSIS
Started at 100/1 and subpar when 10th last start at Traralgon but drawn beautifully. Trying to win after 11 runs.
Career
1: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
73
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Bendigo
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 73%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 32% POT in L100 Runners
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Back for second campaign (20-weeks). Well held but far from disgraced on debut on a soft deck at Bendigo as an outsider 25 Jun. Experience a positive. Sound claims fresh.
ILB
Back from a spell. Started at $71.00 and ran 7th last time at Bendigo but having second race start. Will require a bold run.
RP
Could not finish better than seventh on her debut (Bendigo, 5½f) at 66-1 five months ago; returns from an absence here; could improve from first run although a leap forward required to win this.
RSIS
Back after a break. At 70/1 ran 7th last time at Bendigo but was on debut last time.
Career
2: 0-0-1
Rating · IRD
90
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Avoca
1: 0-0-1
Track Pakenham Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
1: 0-0-1
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Jockey Booking
Negative
Luke Nolen current POT is 46% below Career Avg.
Trainer SR
Negative
P & K Moody & Coleman striking at just 7%
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -28% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 49%
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 55% in L100 rides
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note
AAP
Solid change of gears running into the minors at Avoca at second start. Others carry more punch.
ILB
Good performance to run into 3rd last start at Avoca. Should be going forward early. Good chance in this.
RP
Well beaten third at Avoca last month; entitled to be a bit more streetwise this time and one to take seriously.
RSIS
Improved to place when 3rd last run at Avoca. Likely to be well placed early. Rates as one of the key chances.
Career
1: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
93
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1225m
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 16% in Last 100 Rides
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 6% POT in L100 Runners
Key Jockey
Positive
Brad Rawiller winning at 8% POT in last 100 rides
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Raceday Experience
Positive
Wiser for debut run
AAP
Fronting up for second campaign (21-weeks). Had no answers when the pressure went on at Geelong debut 19 Jun. 1st & 3rd at latest jump-outs. Watch closely on return.
ILB
First run back from spell. Started $4.00 and didn't threaten when 6th last run at Geelong. Has the potential to improve sharply and having second career run. One of the punters top hopes at a very generous price.
RP
Finished sixth and beaten 9l first time out at Geelong at 3-1 five months ago; returns from a layoff.
RSIS
Resuming after break. Started 3/1 and weakened to finish 6th last run at Geelong. Looking for an improved run and was a debutant last start. Will go close.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Onpace
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 1%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -52% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 50%
Well beaten LS
Negative
Not competitive last run
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Let-up (61-days). Ex T Busuttin & N Young in Victoria. Dropped out to last and never sighted at Sale at second start. Happy to watch.
ILB
First up from a spell. Didn't attack the line when 10th last start at Sale. Racing for a new trainer.
RSIS
Resuming after a break. Lost ground in the run home when 10th last time at Sale. First race for a new trainer.
Career
2: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Leader
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Mornington
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 21% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 20%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Returns for second campaign (19-weeks). Placed at both recent Flemington jump-outs. Sound claims fresh.
ILB
Resumes from a break. Was $8.00 and ran 5th last run Ballarat Synthetic.
RP
Held when fifth of nine at Ballarat four months ago; returns from a layoff here.
RSIS
Fresh after a break. Was 7/1 and ran 5th last run Ballarat Synthetic.
Career
2: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Sandown
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Dist Drop
Negative
Distance decrease from last start
AAP
Resuming (62-weeks). Modest form in stronger company last campaign. 3rd & 5th from latest jump-out efforts. Wiser for those runs and should have more to offer.
ILB
Fresh from a spell of 62 weeks. Gave away some ground when 11th last start at Sandown and coming back in trip.
RP
Finished towards the rear of 13 over 7½f at Sandown (maiden) last September; long absence to overcome.
RSIS
Resuming after a 62 week break. Weakened under pressure when 11th last time at Sandown and down in trip.