Shortest win price
Mongolian Hero (8)
1.30
Pakenham in showers, 1400 metres, 6:45 pm AEDT — a maiden plate for three-year-olds and over. The win market backs Mongolian Hero as the short-price favourite, with Royal Canvas and Capital Affair next in order. Galivad and Tecknoking complete the closer-priced runners. The track is rated GOOD4 and the field is spread across nine barriers to twelve.
Mongolian Hero rates a real chance here. The form reads three starts for a third placing, and last time out at Pakenham over 1200 metres the gelding knuckled down with purpose after a market ease. Added journey to 1400 metres should assist, and the rating of 98 jumps off the page. Royal Canvas arrives unraced but has impressed at jump-outs here — second and first — and draws well inside in barrier two on debut. Capital Affair set the pace last start at this track over this distance on a soft surface and was caught late, yet the form suggests merit. With repeat performance possible, the runner remains right in contention.
Galivad deserves mention despite sitting further back in the market. The four-year-old is on his second campaign after 28 weeks away and debuted at Ballarat at double-figure odds, finishing fourth at 1400 metres — not far from the action. The jockey and trainer pairing is performing 73 per cent better than market expectations, and the stable itself is outperforming by 50 per cent. That's a positive signal. Mongolian Hero and Royal Canvas look the primary chances, but Galivad's form trend and stable timing suggest he'll make his presence felt fresh.
Shortest win price
Mongolian Hero (8)
1.30
Back left · leaders right
Offmidfield
Firststart
Backmarker
Midfield
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Asparagus · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Barossa Bourbon · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 16% better than Career Avg.
Dempsey · Negative
Current SR
Rider’s recent POT is returning 63% lower than Career Avg.
Galivad · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are out performing market expectations by 73%
Rating · IRD
78
Speed map
Firststart
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Market Watch
Negative
Keep eye on betting moves
AAP
$12k purchase. 4yo lining up for his first official race start. 1st & 4th at latest jump-outs. Needs betting confidence.
ILB
Jaymee Cockram 4yo by Rich Enuff on debut. Respect the betting.
RP
Gelded already; first start under rules for this four-year-old; should prove competitive as some good aspects to his profile.
RSIS
First time at the races 4yo by Rich Enuff for Jaymee Cockram.
Career
4: 0-0-1
Rating · IRD
75
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Sale
2: 0-0-1
Track Moe
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1208m
2: 0-0-1
Going Good
3: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 16% better than Career Avg.
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 3%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 43%
Map Suits
Positive
Suitable Map, where runners in this position outperform market by 3%
Well beaten LS
Negative
Not competitive last run
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature
AAP
Lightly raced 4-year-old who has only managed a 3rd from 4 runs to date. Dropped out to last and never sighted at Moe off spell. Others with greater appeal.
ILB
Started $151.00 and mediocre display when 10th last time at Moe. Gets back and needs luck. Cannot have.
RP
Last of ten at Moe over 5½f (maiden) last month; winless in four starts but has shown promise with third his top showing; stepping up in trip and has some questions to answer.
RSIS
Was 150/1 and fairly underwhelming when 10th last start at Moe. Likely to get back in the run.
Career
12: 0-0-3
Rating · IRD
76
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Kilmore
3: 0-0-2
Track Mornington
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1429m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1462m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-1
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
6: 0-0-0
Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 63% lower than Career Avg.
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 1%
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 80%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 77% Profit on Turnover
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 75% in L100 rides
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Failed to threaten at Kilmore second-up at longer odds. Keener on others.
ILB
Odds of $31.00 and looked outclassed when 10th last time at Kilmore. A 12 start maiden. Very unlikely.
RP
Still winless and defeats stacking up (12 on the bounce); finished out the back over 7½f at Kilmore (maiden) two weeks ago; passed over.
RSIS
At 30/1 couldn't maintain the pace when 10th last run at Kilmore. Yet to break through after 12 starts.
Career
1: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
85
Speed map
Leader
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 73%
Stable In Form
Positive
Stable going well. Out performing market by 50%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 32% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 7%
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Raceday Experience
Positive
Wiser for debut run
AAP
Back for second campaign (28-weeks). Wasn't all that far from the action on debut at Ballarat at double-figure odds 30 Apr. Wiser for it. Can make his presence felt fresh.
ILB
First up after a break of 28 weeks. Jumped at $19.00 and finished 4th last time at Ballarat but having second career run. Watch the betting.
RP
Not beaten too far (3l) on his debut at Ballarat over this trip at 18-1 in April; layoff to overcome; one to consider if building on initial performance.
RSIS
Fresh today after a break of 28 weeks. Was 18/1 and finished 4th last run at Ballarat but was on debut last time. Shows good early pace. Could feature here.
Career
3: 0-0-1
Rating · IRD
78
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-1
Track Seymour
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1447m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-1
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 5%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 38%
Form Revival
Positive
Turning form around with last couple
AAP
Now 4 weeks between runs. Off pace, left in tearaway winner's wake but ran on doggedly at Cranbourne over today's trip. More a minor money chance here.
ILB
Finished amongst the placegetters when 3rd beaten by more than 7L last time at Cranbourne. Tough ask.
RP
First-time blinkers had no impact (Cranbourne) when well held third four weeks ago.
RSIS
Rattled home nicely into 3rd last time at Cranbourne.
Career
4: 0-0-1
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
2: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-0
Track Seymour
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-1
Going Good
3: 0-0-1
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 23% POT in L100 Runners
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Drawn Poorly
Negative
Unfavourable barrier draw
Fitness
Positive
At peak fitness backing up
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Backing up quickly. Just fair in small field at Cranbourne over this distance. Awkwardly drawn. Hard to warm to.
ILB
Backs up quickly. Was $7.00 and moderate showing when 7th last time at Cranbourne. Can make a comeback. Can go through the gears. Attracts support.
RP
Some promise; closest he has come to winning after four starts was a third; last of seven at Cranbourne last week; he can be taken on.
RSIS
Backing up quickly. Odds of 6/1 and disappointing effort when 7th last time at Cranbourne. Likely to bounce back. Should be swooping on the field late. Winning potential.
Rating · IRD
20
AAP
First-up (34-weeks). Better for the spell and readied via a Wyong trial. Last campaign was safely held against better opposition. Wasn't up to it in first two campaigns but benefitted by a good break.
ILB
Fresh from a spell of 34 weeks. Weakened under pressure when 9th last time at Wyong.
RSIS
First run back from a 34 week break. Struggled with the pace when 9th last time at Wyong.
Career
3: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
98
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Flemington
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -35% POT in their L100 Races
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Form to date fair. Knuckled down with purpose this venue after a market ease. Added journey should assist. Stripping fitter, will take stopping in this company.
ILB
Odds of $7.50 and showed some merit late when 4th last start around here. Winning chance.
RP
Fourth here but only beaten less than a length over 6f (maiden) last month.
RSIS
At 13/2 got going late when 4th last time here. Strong chance to be considered.
Rating · IRD
82
Speed map
Firststart
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 2
Watch Betting
Negative
If supported, follow in
AAP
3yo gelding making debut out of a Show Of Heart mare Another Rosie. 2nd & 1st from recent jump-outs here. Big watch on debut.
ILB
First appearance at the races 3yo by Royal Meeting for trainer Dean Williams and drawn nicely. Watch for a sign in the market.
RP
First time on the track; related to multiple race winner Hurricane Rosie (1m-1m3f); every chance as some good aspects to his profile.
RSIS
First race appearance 3yo by Royal Meeting for Dean Williams and gets a favourable stall.
Career
2: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
89
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Bendigo
1: 0-0-0
Track Seymour
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Trainer SR
Negative
Phillip & Tommy Stokes striking at just 8%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -44% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 36%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Freshened after returning. Failed to threaten at Seymour for new trainer after easing in betting. Place preferred option.
ILB
Odds of $18.00 and tailed off to finish 14th last run at Seymour. Happy to overlook that run. Will be motoring home late. Definite winning chance.
RP
Finished out the back over 6f at Seymour (maiden) five weeks ago on debut for this trainer; first-time blinkers; capable of making an impact.
RSIS
Was 17/1 and looked outclassed when 14th last start at Seymour. Likely to bounce back. Shows good finishing pace. Expecting a strong showing.
Career
2: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Track Wangaratta
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 62% better than Career Avg.
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 5%
Jockey Booking
Positive
Luke Cartwright 52% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 96%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 38%
Key Jockey
Positive
Luke Cartwright winning at 42% POT in last 100 rides
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Wide Draw
Negative
Likely to get caught wide
AAP
Ran on okay without troubling at Wangaratta. More ground could help. All the better, sound claims.
ILB
Jumped at $14.00 and made up ground when 4th last time at Wangaratta.
RP
Respectable effort over 6½f at Wangaratta (maiden) two weeks ago.
RSIS
Started 13/1 and passed some rivals in the late stages when 4th last time at Wangaratta.
Career
5: 0-0-1
Rating · IRD
78
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
2: 0-0-1
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-0
Track Bendigo
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
4: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-1
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 7%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -28% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 49%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Wide Draw
Negative
Likely to get caught wide
Form Revival
Positive
Turning form around with last couple
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Good signs last start. Set pace and caught late this course over this distance. Remains at 1400m. Fully primed. Sound latest offering and a chance with repeat.
ILB
Couldn't shake them off when 3rd last start here. Needs significant improvement.
RP
Appears to be on the upgrade judged on two most recent runs; not beaten far when third at 20-1 two weeks ago upped to this trip.
RSIS
Outgunned at the finish when 3rd beaten by 1L last start around here.
Career
2: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Track Mornington
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1212m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 46% better than Career Avg.
Trainer SR
Negative
P & H Carey & Walker striking at just 3%
Jockey Booking
Positive
Nadia Daniels 62% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are winning 29% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 60%
Hot Jockey
Positive
Nadia Daniels in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 62%
Map Suits
Positive
Suitable Map, where runners in this position outperform market by 3%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
AAP
Two runs to date have been lacklustre. Others carry more punch.
ILB
Jumped at $101.00 and couldn't stay in touch when 9th last run at Mornington but has minimal work to do from the alley. Has to have a lot go its way.
RP
Last of nine at Mornington over 6f (maiden) three weeks ago; wears first-time blinkers; also engaged in race 4 at Geelong.
RSIS
Started 100/1 and tailed off to finish 9th last time at Mornington but has the ideal stall. Likely to settle back in the field.
Career
2: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
78
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Kilmore
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1462m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Kicks off second campaign (26-weeks). More a minor money chance here.
ILB
Racing fresh today after a 26 week break. Started $11.00 and lacklustre showing when 8th last start at Kilmore. Expected to settle towards the rear. Won't find this easy.
RP
Beaten 9l when eighth of ten over 7½f at Kilmore (maiden) in May; returns from a layoff.
RSIS
Back from a break of 26 weeks. Odds of 10/1 and unsatisfactory performance when 8th last run at Kilmore. Might be ridden for luck.