Warwick Farm (NSW) horses tips & previews

15 Nov, 3:57 am AEDT

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Warwick Farm (NSW), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Wed 11 Nov, 11:00 am AEDT

Meetings · Wed, 11 NovWarwick Farm (NSW)Change

Race 1 — Tropicus @ Vinery Stud Mdn Hcp 1400m · jumps Wed 11 Nov, 2:20 pm AEDT

Race preview

Warwick Farm hosts a three-year-old maiden handicap over 1400 metres this afternoon at 2:20 pm AEDT on good ground in fine weather. The market has Quarterback as shortest, with Bogey Free and Palm Tree close behind. Quarterback ran a placing at Rosehill on good ground before getting held up here second-up when odds-on. Bogey Free made an excellent debut at Warrnambool, going down by the barest margin on good ground at the same distance. Palm Tree was freshened and showed purpose on soft ground here when fourth in a Super Maiden Handicap.

The numbers suggest Quarterback rates a real chance. The trainer is firing at 31 per cent above market expectations in recent form, and the stable's runners are banking 21 per cent return on turnover across the last hundred starts. James McDonald was aboard when the horse got badly held up at odds-on. Back at the same 1400-metre track and distance, with natural improvement expected, Quarterback has a big say in this. Bogey Free's debut performance jumps off the page—just nabbed at Warrnambool with genuine scope. Nash Rawiller has been outperforming his career average by 8 per cent in the last hundred rides, though his trainer's recent strike-rate sits at only 9 per cent. The jockey's form carries weight.

Shahaameh deserves close attention further down the order. The mare was within a length of victory at Newcastle latest, in a F and M maiden over 1300 metres on good ground. Dylan Gibbons has been riding 23 per cent better than his career average lately, and she's third-up here where she has form on the board. Tommy Berry and Darn Sure present an intriguing package: Berry is outperforming his career average by 36 per cent in the last hundred rides, and Darn Sure showed the fastest overall finishing sectionals at the last start as a backmarker. The Waller stable's form is undeniable across this field.

Race notes

3Y MDN HCP,3yo,Maiden,SUPER 3Y MDN
GOOD4
Fine
7 runners

Shortest win price

Quarterback (1)

2.05

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Firststart

5Roma Rendezvous

Backmarker

3Darn Sure

Midfield

8Palm Tree
4Snitzel A'La Rouge

Onpace

1Quarterback
6Shahaameh

Leader

2Bogey Free

Quarterback · Positive
Trainer Form
In form stable, out performing market expectations 31%
Bogey Free · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 8% in Last 100 Rides
Darn Sure · Positive
Fast Finisher
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Snitzel A'La Rouge · Negative
Current SR
Rider’s recent POT is returning 22% lower than Career Avg.

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace

1QuarterbackJ: James Mc Donald·T: C J Waller559kg2 5 12 3 75: 0-1-2$2.05$1.26

Career

5: 0-1-2

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
Early Speed100%
Rating100%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-2
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Gosford
1: 0-1-0
Track Eagle Farm
1: 0-0-0
Track Randwick Kensington
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
2: 0-1-1
Distance 1400m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 0-1-2
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0

Last starts

7Warwick Farm1400m28 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT53.49L
3Rosehill1200m30 Sept 2026 · 3Y MDN · GOOD41.14L
12Eagle Farm1400m30 May 2026 · 2yo · SOFT56.8L
5Rosehill1030m22 May 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(6)1.7L
2Gosford1200m9 May 2026 · 2Y HCP · GOOD42L
3Randwick Kensington1100m27 Apr 2026 · 2Y MDN · GOOD45.3L
8Randwick1045m21 Apr 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)4.4L
3Canterbury900m10 Apr 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)2.5L

Insights

Trainer Form
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectations 31%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 21% POT in L100 Runners
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Placed 3yo Mdn at Rosehill 30 Sep. Badly held up this track second-up at $2.35 under J McDonald. Has a big say here.

ILB

Started $2.35 and faded to finish 7th last run at the track. Likely to bounce back and putting a tidy record together so far. Jockey James Mcdonald is an asset. Will go close today.

Has displayed improved form on last two starts; finished just behind Snitzel a'la Rouge when seventh last month in a maiden; easy enough to take on.

RSIS

Was 11/8 and struggled with the pace when 7th last start at the track. Expecting improvement and solid career start. James Mcdonald is a plus. Great chance.

2Bogey FreeJ: Nash Rawiller·T: C Maher358kg21: 0-1-0$3.50$1.65

Career

1: 0-1-0

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating80%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Warrnambool
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
1: 0-1-0

Last starts

2Warrnambool1400m29 Oct 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · GOOD40.1L

Insights

Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 8% in Last 100 Rides
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 9%
Jockey Booking
Positive
Nash Rawiller 22% above market expected in L100 Rides
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 30%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 44% Profit on Turnover
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Raceday Experience
Positive
Wiser for debut run

Comments

AAP

Excellent debut performance when just nabbed at Warrnambool at $3.40. Has scope and in strong stable. Can play a role.

ILB

Narrowly beaten last run at Warrnambool and fitter for debut run. Should come to hand quickly. Great chance.

Narrowly beaten on his debut at Warrnambool at 12-5 last month; entitled to be better for that run.

RSIS

Right up there last time at Warrnambool and having second race start. Shows good early pace. Looks outstanding.

3Darn SureJ: Tommy Berry·T: C J Waller457.5kg10 9 8 6 31: 0-0-1$21.00$5.00

Career

1: 0-0-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed20%
Rating40%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Kembla Grange
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
1: 0-0-1

Last starts

3Kembla Grange1200m24 Oct 2026 · 3UP CG&E MDN-SW · GOOD41.1L
6Warwick Farm813m13 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(6)3.2L
8Rosehill900m19 June 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)8.8L
9Rosehill900m5 June 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(6)7.6L
10Rosehill900m12 Feb 2026 · Barrier Trial14.4L

Insights

Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 36% in Last 100 Rides
Key Rider
Positive
Tommy Berry 38% above market expected in L100 Rides
Trainer Form
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectations 31%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 21% POT in L100 Runners
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Wasn't all that far from the action on debut at Kembla Grange 24 Oct. Better for the run. Each way.

ILB

Finished amongst the placegetters when 3rd beaten by 1L last time at Kembla Grange and was on debut last time. Likely to settle back in the field. A long shot.

Gave a good account on his debut (Kembla Grange, 6f) at 11-1 18 days ago; couldn't rule out improvement although wouldn't get too carried away.

RSIS

Kept running on late when 3rd beaten by 1L last time at Kembla Grange and fitter for debut run. Might have to make up considerable ground.

4Snitzel A'La RougeJ: Jason Collett·T: C J Waller756.5kg6 5 3 2 34: 0-0-1$11.00$3.70

Career

4: 0-0-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
Early Speed100%
Rating20%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-1
Track Canterbury
3: 0-0-0
Track Warwick Farm
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1250m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-1

Last starts

3Warwick Farm1400m28 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT52.11L
2Rosehill900m19 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)1.5L
3Randwick1050m6 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(7)2L
5Canterbury1200m8 July 2026 · 2Y 0SC · HEAVY83.3L
6Canterbury1250m17 June 2026 · 2YCG MDN · SOFT62L
5Canterbury1250m8 June 2026 · 2Y C&G MDN-SW · GOOD41.7L
6Rosehill900m22 May 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(6)2L
8Rosehill900m11 May 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)5.2L

Insights

Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 22% lower than Career Avg.
Stable In Form
Positive
Stable going well. Out performing market by 31%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 21% POT in L100 Runners
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Reserved at back and gave late chase into third this course off spell. Fair return. Can challenge again.

ILB

Attacked the line when 3rd beaten by 2L last time around here and displaying improvement over the past few runs. Tongue tie go on for the first time. This will pose a challenge.

Finished third when beaten just over 2l two weeks ago in a maiden.

RSIS

Ran on strongly when 3rd last start around here and displaying improvement over the past few runs. Tongue strap go on for the first time.

5Roma RendezvousJ: Rachel King·T: C J Waller255.5kg6 7 7$81.00$15.00

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed50%
Rating80%
Closing Speed50%

Last starts

7Rosehill900m19 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)3.2L
7Rosehill900m2 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)4.8L
6Rosehill900m5 June 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(6)8.7L

Insights

Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 32% in Last 100 Rides
Jockey Booking
Positive
Rachel King 25% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot Trainer
Positive
Chris Waller in good form, out performing market 31%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 21% POT in L100 Runners
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Watch Betting
Negative
If supported, follow in

Comments

AAP

Trials (4:0-0-0). $750k purchase. Out of a winning mare. Pedestrian efforts in trials to date. Prefer to see on debut.

ILB

Christian Frederick Waller trained 3yo by Zoustar having first start and will try to take advantage of the draw. Betting as a guide.

Sire can produce useful types; shares a dam with Saturdays Girl, a 6½f winner; the only newcomer in the field; trainer can ready one; leading contender as some good aspects to her profile.

RSIS

3yo debutant by Zoustar for Christian Frederick Waller and can find a nice position from the draw. Has not placed in all trials.

6ShahaamehJ: Dylan Gibbons·T: Richard & Will Freedman155.5kg7 7 3 5 23: 0-1-1$9.00$3.40

Career

3: 0-1-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer40%
Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
Early Speed20%
Rating100%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-1
Track Rosehill
1: 0-0-0
Track Newcastle
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1300m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-1-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-1

Last starts

2Newcastle1300m31 Oct 2026 · F&M MDN · GOOD40.03L
5Rosehill1400m14 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT62.92L
3Warwick Farm1200m23 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT53.41L
7Rosehill1030m8 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)3.6L
7Warwick Farm817m18 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(7)3.1L
3Rosehill900m23 Feb 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)4.6L
6Rosehill900m12 Feb 2026 · Barrier Trial5.3L

Insights

Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 23% better than Career Avg.
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 8%
Jockey Booking
Positive
Dylan Gibbons 39% above market expected in L100 Rides
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 30%
Key Jockey
Positive
Dylan Gibbons winning at 20% POT in last 100 rides
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 14%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low

Comments

AAP

Form useful. Close-up and gave her all to just miss at Newcastle latest outing. Right in the mix again with Lloyd riding.

ILB

Close to a win last run at Newcastle and promising career start. Been in the money multiple times this campaign and will appreciate a good draw. Best to watch and see.

Career is progressing; just touched off over 6½f at Newcastle (handicap) 11 days ago; should be thereabouts.

RSIS

Just missed last time at Newcastle and showing consistent performance in races. Producing consistent results since resuming from a break and has minimal work to do from the draw.

7MachrihanishScratched3––––

Career

10: 0-2-3

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer40%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating100%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Hawkesbury
2: 0-0-1
Track Kembla Grange
2: 0-1-0
Track Muswellbrook
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1280m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1300m
3: 0-1-0
Going Good
7: 0-1-2
Going Soft
3: 0-1-1

Last starts

2Kembla Grange1400m3 Nov 2026 · 3yo · SOFT60.3L
3Canberra1200m23 Oct 2026 · MDN · GOOD40.73L
3Muswellbrook1280m5 Oct 2026 · MDN · GOOD42.62L
2Canberra1300m18 Sept 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD30.5L
9Kembla Grange1300m8 Aug 2026 · F&M MDN · GOOD45.8L
3Hawkesbury1100m19 July 2026 · F&M MDN-SW · SOFT63.1L
6Hawkesbury1000m2 July 2026 · 2Y MDN · SOFT72.7L
7Newcastle1300m6 Mar 2026 · 2Y HCP · GOOD44.3L

Insights

Consistent
Positive
Showing up at the business end

Comments

AAP

Ran a cracking race when just edged out late at Kembla Grange 3 Nov. New to Warwick Farm. Harder now but drawn to effect.

ILB

Racing on a quick back up. Just missed last time at Kembla Grange. Performing honestly since coming back from a spell.

String of near-misses of late but still winless and defeats stacking up (ten on the bounce); went down by a neck last Tuesday (Kembla Grange) in a maiden; not been able to get her head in front lately so not hard to turn elsewhere.

RSIS

Backing up quickly. Close to a win last time at Kembla Grange. Putting up notable efforts recently.

8Palm TreeJ: Kerrin Mc Evoy·T: C J Waller654.5kg3 6 2 4 43: 0-1-0$6.50$2.65

Career

3: 0-1-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Track Illawarra Grange
1: 0-1-0
Track Canterbury
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1250m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1450m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-1-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0

Last starts

4Rosehill900m19 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)2L
4Warwick Farm1600m5 Oct 2026 · 3UP SUPER MDN HCP · SOFT61.39L
2Illawarra Grange1450m17 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD40.8L
6Canterbury1250m26 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT76.6L
3Warwick Farm1208m18 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(7)1.4L
8Warwick Farm786m4 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)7.2L

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -25% POT in their L100 Races
Stable In Form
Positive
Stable going well. Out performing market by 31%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 21% POT in L100 Runners
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Gap In Runs
Negative
Not raced for 37 days
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Freshened. Form to date sound. Knuckled down with purpose in soft going this course. Unlucky there. Looks a serious player.

ILB

At $8.50 improved late to finish 4th last run at this track. Interesting to see the blinkers go on for the first time. Slim possibilty.

Far from disgraced (beaten 1½l) over 1m here (handicap) last month; should be in the mix as shown promise on occasion.

RSIS

Was 15/2 and made ground when closing off to finish 4th last run at this track. Interesting gear change of blinkers on first time.

Odds correct as at Wed 11 Nov, 2:20 pm AEDT. Odds can change.

Past meetings

Wed 28 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 6 races
Wed 21 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 7 races
Mon 5 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 8 races
Wed 23 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 7 races
Wed 2 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 7 races