Illawarra Grange (NSW) horses tips & previews

15 Nov, 4:05 am AEDT

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Illawarra Grange (NSW), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Sat 14 Nov, 11:00 am AEDT

Meetings · Sat, 14 NovIllawarra Grange (NSW)Change

Race 5 — The Gong Ambassador Tommy Berry Hcp (C1) 1450m · jumps Sat 14 Nov, 3:50 pm AEDT

Race notes

3yo+,CL1,CL1 HCP,Class 1
SOFT5
Overcast
7 runners

Shortest win price

Eynesbury (2)

1.80

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Backmarker

6Dawn Or Dusk

Offpace

8Coco Dior
2Eynesbury

Onpace

3Strike A Pose
9Elivina

Leader

1Chappy
5Wormington

Chappy · Negative
Rider
Negative rider change today
Eynesbury · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Strike A Pose · Negative
Current SR
Rider’s recent POT is returning 45% lower than Career Avg.
Wormington · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are out performing market expectations by 49%

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace

1ChappyJ: Lee Magorrian·T: C J Waller359.5kg2 1 7 12 47: 1-2-1$7.00$2.80

Career

7: 1-2-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo40%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed60%

Record

First-up
3: 0-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Te Aroha
1: 0-1-0
Track Hawkesbury
1: 0-0-0
Track Rosehill
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
6: 1-2-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 1-0-0
Going Soft
5: 0-2-1

Last starts

4Hawkesbury1400m27 Oct 2026 · 3UP CG&E BM64 HCP · GOOD42.13L
12Rosehill1400m14 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT612.9L
7Rosehill1030m2 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)5.6L
1Rotorua1400m1 July 2026 · MDN 2YO&UP · HEAVY10-2.84
2Matamata1400m14 June 2026 · MDN 2&3YO · SOFT70.53L
2Te Aroha1400m1 June 2026 · MDN 2&3YO · SOFT50.16L
3Matamata1200m13 May 2026 · MDN 3YO · SOFT71.39L
7Rotorua1400m27 Dec 2025 · MDN 3YO · SOFT65.1L

Insights

Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -22% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 10% POT in L100 Runners
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Ex NZ. Third start in Australia. Finished it off only fairly at Hawkesbury when second-up. Sharper now and winner over similar trip in NZ. Not out of this.

ILB

Started $5.50 and ran 4th last run at Hawkesbury. Interesting to see the blinkers go off for the first time. Has shown early pace in races to date. Marginal chance.

Respectable effort (beaten just over 2l) at Hawkesbury two weeks ago; probably unlikely to trouble the principals given this looks a decent race.

RSIS

At 9/2 finished 4th last start at Hawkesbury. Blinkers go off for the first time. Likely to be well placed early.

2EynesburyJ: Keagan Latham·T: C J Waller258.5kg4 6 5 3 210: 1-2-1$1.80$1.26

Career

10: 1-2-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Warwick Farm
1: 0-1-0
Track Randwick
2: 0-0-0
Track Gosford
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1250m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1400m
3: 0-1-0
Going Good
4: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
5: 1-1-1

Last starts

2Warwick Farm1200m30 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)1.2L
3Rosehill1030m19 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)2L
5Randwick2000m6 June 2026 · 3Y BM72 · SOFT53.1L
6Randwick1800m23 May 2026 · 3Y BM72 (71) · HEAVY103L
4Kembla Grange1600m9 May 2026 · BM64 · GOOD42.9L
1Kembla Grange1500m18 Apr 2026 · CG&E MDN-SW · SOFT5-0.1
4Rosehill1400m6 Apr 2026 · 3Y+MDN-SW · SOFT69.5L
2Warwick Farm1400m11 Mar 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · SOFT60.6L

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 10% POT in L100 Runners
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Ready To Fire
Positive
Shown something in last few runs
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Resuming (23-weeks). Pitted against better company last prep. In the minors at Canterbury first-up last campaign while building fitness through 2 trials. Among the dangers fresh.

ILB

First up and picked up late ground when 3rd beaten by 1 1/4L first up last preparation at Canterbury. Has placed in all trials. Good chance of taking this out.

Not disgraced when fifth over 1m2f at Randwick (handicap) in June; has had some time off; this looks a decent race so one to tread carefully with.

RSIS

Resuming and good performance to run into 3rd resuming last preparation at Canterbury. Placed in all trials and goes down in class. Has a positive draw. Good potential.

3Strike A PoseJ: Louise Day·T: C Maher658.5kg5 4 2 6 15: 1-1-0$7.00$2.80

Career

5: 1-1-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer40%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed80%
Rating20%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
2: 1-0-0
Track Canberra
2: 0-1-0
Track Hawkesbury
2: 1-0-0
Track Illawarra Grange
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1450m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
3: 1-1-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-1-0
Going Good
3: 1-0-0

Last starts

1Hawkesbury1300m27 Oct 2026 · 4UP MDN HCP · GOOD4-0.89
6Illawarra Grange1450m5 May 2026 · CG&E MDN-SW · GOOD48.6L
2Canberra1300m17 Apr 2026 · MDN-SW · SOFT51.2L
4Canberra1400m3 Apr 2026 · MDN-SW · SOFT53L
5Hawkesbury1300m17 Mar 2026 · 3Y MDN · GOOD42.3L
4Warwick Farm789m16 Feb 2026 · Barrier Trial3.8L
3Kembla Grange800m2 Feb 2026 · Barrier Trial3.5L
6Warwick Farm790m4 Sept 2025 · Barrier Trial2.9L

Insights

Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 45% lower than Career Avg.
Trainer SR
Negative
Ciaron Maher striking at just 9%
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -30% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 30%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 45% Profit on Turnover
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 52% in L100 rides
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace

Comments

AAP

Raced off the speed and mustered well to get the money in the 4yo+ Mdn at Hawkesbury. Might go on with it now.

ILB

Charged home to win last start at Hawkesbury but testing ability against stronger contenders. Should race on the speed. Will struggle to compete in this race.

Seems to have stepped up on previous form the last twice; landed a narrow success in a handicap (Hawkesbury) when opening his account at the fifth time of asking last month; poses a threat.

RSIS

Displayed a good turn of foot when winning last time at Hawkesbury but matched against tougher rivals. Won't be far away during the run.

4FitzclarenceScratched8––––

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey50%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo50%
Early Speed50%
Rating60%
Closing Speed80%

Comments

AAP

Ordinary performance in small field at Hawkesbury second-up. All the better, at best, a place hope.

ILB

Odds of $4.80 and outpaced some runners late when 5th last run at Hawkesbury.

RSIS

At 4/1 picked up some late ground when 5th last run at Hawkesbury.

5WormingtonJ: Mitchell Bell·T: Richard Litt557.5kg4 4 1 5 610: 1-2-0$15.00$4.20

Career

10: 1-2-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed20%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Hawkesbury
2: 0-1-0
Track Kembla Grange
4: 1-0-0
Track Newcastle
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
6: 1-2-0
Going Soft
4: 1-0-0
Going Good
6: 0-2-0

Last starts

6Newcastle1500m31 Oct 2026 · Benchmark 68 · GOOD43.99L
5Hawkesbury1300m15 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT77.22L
1Kembla Grange1600m16 May 2026 · MID MDN-SW · SOFT5-1
4Kembla Grange1600m9 May 2026 · Maiden · GOOD42.3L
4Newcastle1890m11 Apr 2026 · MID MDN · GOOD42L
2Hawkesbury1600m26 Mar 2026 · CL1-SW · GOOD44L
9Warwick Farm1600m4 Mar 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT78.6L
2Wyong1600m10 Feb 2026 · Maiden · GOOD40.3L

Insights

Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 49%
Stable In Form
Positive
Stable going well. Out performing market by 43%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 23% POT in L100 Runners
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Got the wobbles and faded out of the placings at Newcastle. On pacer who strip fitter third run back and back to a C1 helps. Could run a race at odds.

ILB

At $19.00 faded to finish 6th last run at Newcastle. Expecting improvement. Jockey Mitchell Bell is in form for this stable. Displays good tactical speed. Very capable of taking this out.

Useful in this grade; not beaten too far when sixth of nine (Newcastle) last month.

RSIS

Started 18/1 and folded up in the straight when 6th last start at Newcastle. Has the ability to turn things around. Will be pushing for a forward position early. Very capable of taking this out.

6Dawn Or DuskJ: Shaun Guymer·T: Matthew Smith756.5kg6 6 3 1 84: 1-0-1$6.50$2.70

Career

4: 1-0-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Hawkesbury
2: 0-0-0
Track Newcastle
2: 1-0-1
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
2: 1-0-1
Going Good
3: 0-0-1
Going Soft
1: 1-0-0

Last starts

8Warwick Farm821m13 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)10.9L
1Newcastle1500m19 May 2026 · MDN-SW · SOFT7-0.1
3Newcastle1500m2 May 2026 · Maiden · GOOD40.9L
6Hawkesbury1400m14 Apr 2026 · MDN · GOOD45L
6Hawkesbury1300m17 Mar 2026 · 3Y MDN · GOOD43.2L
4Randwick1050m5 Mar 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)6.3L
8Randwick1050m19 Feb 2026 · Barrier Trial13.8L
4Warwick Farm817m3 Feb 2026 · Barrier Trial2.4L

Insights

Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Fronting up for second campaign (25-weeks). Went to the paddock on a high note. Two quiet trials for return. Has a tricky draw for return. One for exotics fresh.

ILB

Fresh after a break. Ran on hard when winning last run at Newcastle but competing in a more challenging grade. Yet to place in multiple barrier trials. Small possibility.

Off the mark at the fourth time of asking scoring narrowly (Newcastle) six months ago in a maiden; returns from a break here; arguably the one to beat.

RSIS

Back from a break. Ran on hard when winning last start at Newcastle and displaying improvement over the past few runs. Has not placed in all trials.

7Bang On TimeScratched5––––

Rating · IRD

Figures

Jockey50%
Trainer50%
Jockey/Trainer Combo50%
Early Speed50%
Rating50%
Closing Speed50%

Comments

AAP

Freshened. Settled back and passed a few late in the 3yo+ Provincial Hcp (C1) at Hawkesbury. Has placed this track. Can make her presence felt.

ILB

Started $3.40 and ran on into 5th last start at Hawkesbury.

RSIS

Started at 12/5 and made some ground when 5th last start at Hawkesbury.

8Coco DiorJ: Jean Van Overmeire·T: Mitchell Beer & George Carpenter155.5kg2 6 1 6 210: 1-3-3$8.00$3.20

Career

10: 1-3-3

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating100%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
3: 0-0-1
Second-up
2: 1-1-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
2: 0-1-1
Track Canterbury
1: 0-0-0
Track Newcastle
1: 0-0-0
Track Albury
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1150m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
3: 1-1-1
Distance 1250m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
4: 0-2-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-2
Going Soft
4: 1-1-1

Last starts

2Nowra1200m1 Nov 2026 · CL1 · GOOD30.8L
6Newcastle1250m17 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT55.03L
1Moruya1200m2 Oct 2026 · Maiden · SOFT7-1.8
6Illawarra Grange1150m17 Sept 2026 · Maiden · GOOD42.1L
2Kembla Grange1300m18 Apr 2026 · Maiden · SOFT50.5L
3Albury1400m19 Mar 2026 · Maiden · SOFT71.6L
3Kembla Grange1500m3 Mar 2026 · MID MDN · HEAVY92.2L
2Kembla Grange1400m17 Feb 2026 · Maiden · GOOD40.2L

Insights

Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 42%
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Ready To Fire
Positive
Shown something in last few runs
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Form sound. Picked up strongly from back half at Nowra. Drawn favourably and under less weight. Key player.

ILB

Caught the eye when 2nd beaten by 3/4L last start at Nowra and can save some energy from the draw. Expect support.

Beaten less than a length over 6f at Nowra (handicap) two weeks ago.

RSIS

Claimed a spot in the placings when 2nd last time at Nowra and can save some energy from the draw. Will not be far away.

9ElivinaJ: Jeff Penza·T: K J Parker455.5kg3 3 7 5 611: 1-2-2$23.00$5.50

Career

11: 1-2-2

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed80%
Rating60%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
3: 0-1-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Canberra
1: 0-1-0
Track Kembla Grange
4: 0-1-2
Track Nowra
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1800m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
4: 0-1-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
6: 1-1-1

Last starts

6Nowra1200m1 Nov 2026 · CL1 · GOOD35.1L
5Hawkesbury800m20 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)6.8L
7Kembla Grange1600m7 Feb 2026 · BM64 HCP · SOFT54.6L
3Kembla Grange1400m22 Jan 2026 · CL1 · SOFT73L
3Kembla Grange1150m6 Jan 2026 · Barrier Trial2.4L
5Nowra1600m14 Dec 2025 · CL2 · SOFT73.2L
7Randwick Kensington1400m5 Dec 2025 · 3yo+ · GOOD44.8L
2Kembla Grange1400m4 Nov 2025 · CL1 · GOOD40.8L

Insights

Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 24% in Last 100 Rides
Jockey Booking
Positive
Jeff Penza 22% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -43% POT in their L100 Races
Hot Jockey
Positive
Jeff Penza in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 22%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Down In Weight
Positive
Drops 5kg from LS run

Comments

AAP

Raced in back half and was never in a position to mount a serious challenge at Nowra. Strips fitter. Form sound this level without winning. Place.

ILB

Odds of $11.00 and tailed off to finish 6th last run at Nowra. Capable of a strong comeback and gets a reduction in weight. Contender at a nice price.

Close up behind Coco Dior when sixth over 6f at Nowra (handicap) 13 days ago; if excused last two runs she would be interesting based on her third at Kembla Grange in January; ought to be on the premises.

RSIS

Started 10/1 and struggled with the pace when 6th last time at Nowra. Should improve here and dropping weight. Should run a competitive race.

10Stunning FutureScratched9––––

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
Early Speed80%
Rating60%
Closing Speed80%

Insights

Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Won in decisive fashion at Beaumont when second-up. Looks up to these.

ILB

Stormed home to win last run at Newcastle but competing at a higher level of competition. Been in the money each attempt this preparation.

RSIS

Romped home to win last time at Newcastle and getting better in recent performances. In the placings at every start of late but facing a stronger grade.

Odds correct as at Sat 14 Nov, 4:00 pm AEDT. Odds can change.

Past meetings

Thu 1 Oct, 10:00 am AEST · 8 races
Thu 17 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 7 races