Illawarra Grange (NSW) horses tips & previews

15 Nov, 4:07 am AEDT

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Illawarra Grange (NSW), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Sat 14 Nov, 11:00 am AEDT

Meetings · Sat, 14 NovIllawarra Grange (NSW)Change

Race 1 — The Gong Ambassador Mikayla Chilby Mdn Hcp 1300m · jumps Sat 14 Nov, 1:30 pm AEDT

Race preview

Welcome to Illawarra Grange for race one, the F&M Mdn Hcp over 1300m on a Soft 5 track with overcast skies ahead of a 1:30 pm AEDT jump. Looking at the early win market order, Lady Resolute opens as the shortest runner, closely followed by Cumulate, Machrihanish, and Glamour Magic rounding out the top four in betting. The numbers jump off the page for some intriguing match-ups here as the field lines up across the 1300m trip.

The form behind those shorter prices points to some serious contenders. Lady Resolute for trainer C J Waller is a big watch as a pricey purchase out of a Group 1-winning mare, coming off a strong trial win at Rosehill under Lee Magorrian from barrier four. Cumulate maps as the leader from barrier five for trainers Mitchell Beer and George Carpenter, bringing an honest Victorian record into this campaign with Jean Van Overmeire steering. Meanwhile, Glamour Magic jumps from barrier six with Jeff Penza aboard for Joseph Pride, looking fitter second-up after a solid effort at Wyong and rising in trip, which certainly rates a real chance.

Digging further into the pack, Machrihanish draws the inside barrier one for trainers Richard and Will Freedman with Shaun Guymer in the saddle, coming off a cracking second at Kembla Grange over 1400m and a consistent minor placing record that keeps them right in the mix. With Cumulate expected to dictate terms early and speed maps showing different tactics across the board, this maiden handicap sets up as a fascinating contest where the form lines run deep. Check the odds and back your runner with confidence on course.

Race notes

F&M MDN,F&M MDN HCP,Maiden
SOFT5
Overcast
8 runners

Shortest win price

Lady Resolute (5)

3.80

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Backmarker

7Acknowledge Me

Midfield

1Mardyke
6Weekday Flyer

Offpace

8Machrihanish

Onpace

3Glamour Magic

Firststart

4Jabal Shada
5Lady Resolute

Leader

2Cumulate

Mardyke · Negative
Trainer Career
Trainer Career S/R is 7%
Cumulate · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are out performing market expectations by 42%
Glamour Magic · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 24% in Last 100 Rides
Jabal Shada · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace

1MardykeJ: Grant Buckley·T: Edward Cummings859kg6 52: 0-0-0$23.00$3.90

Career

2: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating20%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Newcastle
1: 0-0-0
Track Caulfield Heath
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

5Newcastle1300m31 Oct 2026 · F&M MDN · GOOD42.8L
6Caulfield Heath1200m20 May 2026 · MDN · SOFT69.5L

Insights

Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 7%
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 79%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 23%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Not disgraced at Newcastle first run back. Better for that and open to improvement.

ILB

At $81.00 improved late to finish 5th last start at Newcastle. Rough hope.

Beaten just under 3l 14 days ago when sent off 80-1 at Newcastle; unexposed in handicaps with this her second start in this company; likely to be in contention.

RSIS

Started 80/1 and showed some merit late when 5th last start at Newcastle.

2CumulateJ: Jean Van Overmeire·T: Mitchell Beer & George Carpenter558.5kg4 3 3 2 55: 0-1-3$3.90$1.40

Career

5: 0-1-3

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating100%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Kilmore
1: 0-0-1
Track Seymour
1: 0-0-0
Track Wodonga
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1209m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1300m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1400m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
3: 0-1-2
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-1
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

5Hawkesbury800m20 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)4.8L
2Ballarat1400m24 May 2026 · 3Y FILLIES MDN-SW · GOOD43.5L
3Wodonga1300m16 May 2026 · 2UP MDN-SW · GOOD43.3L
3Kilmore1450m4 May 2026 · 2yo+ · HEAVY96.3L
4Seymour1300m13 Apr 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT54.3L
3Echuca1209m21 Mar 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD41.3L
2Kilmore1200m10 Mar 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)1.3L
5Tatura1100m1 Oct 2025 · Barrier Trial8.2L

Insights

Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 42%
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
Increased Dist
Positive
Distance rise from last start
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Consistent
Positive
Showing up at the business end

Comments

AAP

Back for second campaign (24-weeks). Ex Ben Brisbourne in Victoria. Honest record. In the minors at Echuca on debut last campaign while brought on by a single Hawkesbury trial. Go well.

ILB

First up after a break. Tidy run when 2nd last run at Ballarat and good career start. Displays good tactical speed. Change in trainer. Should go close.

Solid runner-up at Ballarat in May in a maiden; has displayed improved form on last two starts; representing new trainer today; back from an absence here.

RSIS

Racing fresh today after a break. Claimed a spot in the placings when 2nd last start at Ballarat and solid career start. Shows good early pace. Should put in a decent effort.

3Glamour MagicJ: Jeff Penza·T: Joseph Pride658kg6 3 3 4 65: 0-0-3$6.00$1.95

Career

5: 0-0-3

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed80%
Rating60%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-1
Track Hawkesbury
1: 0-0-1
Track Kembla Grange
1: 0-0-1
Track Newcastle
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1250m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
3: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-2

Last starts

6Wyong1100m29 Oct 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD43.55L
4Warwick Farm813m13 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(6)3.6L
3Kembla Grange1500m2 June 2026 · MDN · HEAVY81.7L
3Hawkesbury1300m21 May 2026 · 3Y MDN · HEAVY84.1L
6Newcastle1250m2 May 2026 · F&M MDN-SW · GOOD46.4L
3Wyong1100m16 Apr 2026 · 3UP F&M MDN HCP · GOOD45.8L
3Warwick Farm789m20 Mar 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(7)1.6L
6Warwick Farm789m18 Sept 2025 · Barrier Trial10.2L

Insights

Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 24% in Last 100 Rides
Jockey Booking
Positive
Jeff Penza 22% above market expected in L100 Rides
Key Jockey
Positive
Jeff Penza winning at 10% POT in last 100 rides
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Got back and wasn't totally disgraced at Wyong first run back. Will be fitter second-up and rise in trip a plus. Key contender.

ILB

Finished 6th last start at Wyong but honest performer putting a tidy record together. Place best.

Seems to have stepped up on previous form the last twice; not disgraced when sixth of ten at Wyong last month in a maiden; others more appealing.

RSIS

Came in 6th last time at Wyong but showing consistent performance in races.

4Jabal ShadaJ: Keagan Latham·T: C J Waller758kg5 4 4 6 9$9.00$2.50

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed50%
Rating100%
Closing Speed50%

Last starts

9Rosehill900m19 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)4.8L
6Rosehill1030m19 June 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)10.6L
4Rosehill900m5 June 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(6)4.7L
4Rosehill900m12 Feb 2026 · Barrier Trial3.7L
5Warwick Farm817m3 Feb 2026 · Barrier Trial5L

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 10% POT in L100 Runners
Still Learning
Negative
No race experience

Comments

AAP

Trials (6:0-0-0). Godolphin filly who makes debut after a lengthy yet unexceptional trial lead-up. In premier stable. Betting the guide.

ILB

3yo debutant by Dundeel for Christian Frederick Waller. Tongue tie go on for the first time. Has not placed in all trials. Watch early betting.

Trainer more than capable of readying a newcomer, especially over this sort of distance; sire capable of getting smart offspring; every chance as some good aspects to her profile.

RSIS

First start at the races 3yo by Dundeel for trainer Christian Frederick Waller. Interesting to see the tongue strap go on for the first time. Unplaced in all trials.

5Lady ResoluteJ: Lee Magorrian·T: C J Waller458kg7 8$3.80$1.40

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo40%
Early Speed50%
Rating100%
Closing Speed50%

Last starts

8Warwick Farm1209m26 June 2026 · Barrier Trial · HEAVY(8)5.7L
7Rosehill900m10 Mar 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(7)8L

Insights

Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 44% lower than Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -22% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 10% POT in L100 Runners
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 51% in L100 rides
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Watch Betting
Negative
If supported, follow in
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note

Comments

AAP

Trials (5:1-0-0). $1.6m purchase. Out of a Group 1-winning mare. With leading trainer and showed good improvement to win her latest trial at Rosehill. Big watch.

ILB

First start at the races 3yo by I Am Invincible for trainer Christian Frederick Waller. Interesting to see the blinkers go on for the first time. Watch the market.

Sire capable of producing high class offspring; trainer gets fair share of winning newcomers over this sort of trip; warrants respect with signs of encouragement in profile.

RSIS

3yo by I Am Invincible having first race start for trainer Christian Frederick Waller. Blinkers go on for the first time.

6Weekday FlyerJ: Rory Hutchings·T: K J Parker357.5kg7 2 6 5 44: 0-1-0$16.00$3.50

Career

4: 0-1-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating80%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Kembla Grange
3: 0-1-0
Track Queanbeyan
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1460m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-1-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-0

Last starts

4Queanbeyan1460m26 Oct 2026 · MDN-SW · SOFT65.52L
5Kembla Grange800m7 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)2L
6Kembla Grange1600m16 May 2026 · MID MDN-SW · SOFT53.8L
2Kembla Grange1400m9 May 2026 · MID MDN-SW · GOOD42L
7Kembla Grange1300m18 Apr 2026 · Maiden · SOFT56L
4Kembla Grange800m5 Mar 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(6)4.7L

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Unable to make an impression on a soft deck at Queanbeyan. Will be fitter second-up. Reverts to slightly shorter trip and the blinkers go back on. Expecting better.

ILB

Odds of $2.00 and crept into 4th last start at Queanbeyan. Definite contender.

Left backers frustrated when fourth of six at evens (Queanbeyan) last month in a maiden; four-race maiden though does have a second place to her name; not hard to turn elsewhere.

RSIS

Started Evens and overtook some late when 4th last time at Queanbeyan. One of the punters top hopes.

7Acknowledge MeJ: Chad Lever·T: R & L Price256.5kg2 7 6 4 33: 0-0-1$10.00$2.65

Career

3: 0-0-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating80%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Kembla Grange
2: 0-0-1
Track Nowra
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-1

Last starts

3Kembla Grange1400m3 Nov 2026 · 3yo · SOFT61.8L
4Nowra1200m18 Oct 2026 · MDN · GOOD43.7L
6Kembla Grange800m7 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)2.4L
7Kembla Grange1000m20 June 2026 · 2Y MDN-SW · SOFT56.2L
2Kembla Grange800m5 June 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)0.2L
8Rosehill900m12 Feb 2026 · Barrier Trial11.2L

Insights

Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 7%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 27%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Steady improver. Sent forward, outgunned late but boxed on at Kembla Grange when second-up. Drops back a notch in trip. Among the dangers again.

ILB

Couldn't maintain the momentum throughout when 3rd beaten by 1 3/4L last start at Kembla Grange and will try to take advantage of the draw. One for the value hunters.

Close up behind Machrihanish when third over 7f at Kembla Grange (maiden) last week; seems to be going the right way.

RSIS

Was quite a handful for the competition when 3rd beaten by 1 3/4L last run at Kembla Grange and has a positive draw. Finishes off strongly. Definite claims.

8MachrihanishJ: Shaun Guymer·T: Richard & Will Freedman156kg9 2 3 3 210: 0-2-3$4.40$1.55

Career

10: 0-2-3

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer40%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating100%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Muswellbrook
1: 0-0-1
Track Rosehill
1: 0-0-0
Track Newcastle
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1280m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1300m
3: 0-1-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
7: 0-1-2
Going Soft
3: 0-1-1

Last starts

2Kembla Grange1400m3 Nov 2026 · 3yo · SOFT60.3L
3Canberra1200m23 Oct 2026 · MDN · GOOD40.73L
3Muswellbrook1280m5 Oct 2026 · MDN · GOOD42.62L
2Canberra1300m18 Sept 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD30.5L
9Kembla Grange1300m8 Aug 2026 · F&M MDN · GOOD45.8L
3Hawkesbury1100m19 July 2026 · F&M MDN-SW · SOFT63.1L
6Hawkesbury1000m2 July 2026 · 2Y MDN · SOFT72.7L
7Newcastle1300m6 Mar 2026 · 2Y HCP · GOOD44.3L

Insights

Trainer SR
Negative
R & W Freedman striking at just 8%
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -58% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 37%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 43% Profit on Turnover
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low

Comments

AAP

Recent form solid under market support. Ran a cracking race when just edged out at Kembla Grange 3 Nov. Right in this.

ILB

Close to claiming the win last run at Kembla Grange and drawn beautifully. Producing consistent results since resuming from a spell. Definite claims for punters.

Signs of improvement on last two runs but still winless and defeats stacking up (ten on the bounce); beaten a neck at Kembla Grange when ahead of Acknowledge Me last week in a maiden; regularly been coming up a bit short lately so others make more appeal.

RSIS

Right up there last time at Kembla Grange and gets the perfect draw. Producing consistent results since returning from a break. Definitely worth considering.

Odds correct as at Sat 14 Nov, 1:42 pm AEDT. Odds can change.

Past meetings

Thu 1 Oct, 10:00 am AEST · 8 races
Thu 17 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 7 races