Shortest win price
Shadow Eagle (11)
2.50
This is a Benchmark 80 handicap over 1572 metres at Morphettville on a Good 4 track under overcast skies, jumping at 6:01 pm AEDT. The win market has Shadow Eagle shortest, followed by Freedom Flame, then All Too Mysti and Maldini. These first four runners shape as the key players in what looks a competitive field.
All Too Mysti sits in the leader role and has genuine credentials. The mare was dominant at her last start over 1600 metres at this track, hitting the line hard, and she's won here before. Coming through the gates at barrier 2, she maps to utilise a slow early pace and rated 86 on the form card. The jockey combo of Will Price and the Jolly camp also rates her well here. Shadow Eagle, running shortest, has strong recent form at Morphettville including a solid placing two back, and the form is hard to fault, though camp metrics are struggling. Freedom Flame drops back to suitable class after recent runs in harder races, and sectional data suggests he goes hard early, which could suit a field that looks set up for onpace runners—alongside Willybeafactor, I Catchem Fox and Maldini—to put the cat among the pigeons. Maldini was very fit when he ran placings recently over 1600 and 1522 metres here at BM72, and Todd Pannell has been outperforming his career average by 28 per cent.
Willybeafactor and his jockey-trainer combo are firing at an extraordinary 33 per cent above market expectations, and George Dimitropoulos has been striking at 53 per cent above expectations. From barrier 10, the onpace map puts her in the mix if the acceleration phase opens up. Teardrop Rotation finished fastest at his last outing and rates a real chance in the concluding stages despite his backmarker slot, while Jazz Affair has copped a negative rider change but still carries value further down the board.
Shortest win price
Shadow Eagle (11)
2.50
Most career wins
Willybeafactor
14-12-4 from 95 starts
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offmidfield
Midfield
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
I Catchem Fox · Negative
Current SR
Rider’s recent POT is returning 36% lower than Career Avg.
Snow Patrol · Negative
Tricky Map
Runners with this map, underperform market by 6%
Willybeafactor · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are out performing market expectations by 3316%
Freedom Flame · Positive
Fast Early
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Career
27: 7-4-4
Rating · IRD
80
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
2: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Murray Bridge
6: 3-0-1
Track Murtoa
1: 0-0-0
Track Balaklava
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
9: 2-0-1
Distance 1112m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1205m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
15: 3-2-2
Going Heavy
3: 1-1-1
Going Soft
9: 3-1-1
Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 36% lower than Career Avg.
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 25% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 19%
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 1
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Not disgraced at Morphettville over longer test at $12. On pacer, perfect gate. Switching to 1572m. Shapes as a rough place prospect.
ILB
Started at $12.00 and came in 6th last time at the track but will appreciate a good alley. Has good tactical speed and will be nicely positioned. Low-key chance.
RP
Resume shows that he is a proven winner (seeking a eighth career win); not beaten too far when sixth of 12 last month upped to 1m2f; ought to give it a shot.
RSIS
Started 11/1 and came in 6th last run here but can save some energy from the stall. Will be pushing for a forward position early. Coming back in distance.
Career
17: 2-0-1
Rating · IRD
78
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
4: 2-0-0
Second-up
3: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Flemington
2: 0-0-0
Track Morphettville
4: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
4: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
5: 1-0-0
Distance 1420m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
10: 2-0-0
Going Soft
7: 0-0-1
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 6%
Form At Track
Negative
Yet to win here
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature
Weight Increase
Negative
Rises 6.5kg now
AAP
Last success was 10 Feb 2024. On pace but unable to sustain bid at Gawler. Leads, handy. Others with stronger claims.
ILB
Odds of $31.00 and didn't threaten when 12th last time at Gawler but competing in a less challenging grade. Yet to fire this campaign with no placings from 7 runs. Would rather look at others.
RP
Towards the rear of 15 at Gawler over 7½f (handicap) last month; has to be feared.
RSIS
Was 30/1 and weakened under pressure when 12th last start at Gawler but will appreciate the drop in grade. Struggling in recent runs and up in weight.
Career
95: 14-12-4
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
11: 2-2-0
Second-up
9: 0-0-0
Third-up
9: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
9: 3-0-0
Track Gawler
5: 0-3-1
Track Balaklava
2: 0-1-0
Track Corowa
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
29: 5-4-0
Distance 1550m
5: 2-1-0
Distance 1600m
11: 1-1-1
Going Soft
34: 7-6-2
Going Good
44: 2-4-0
Going Heavy
17: 5-2-2
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 3316%
Hot Trainer
Positive
George Dimitropoulos in good form, out performing market 53%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 41% POT in L100 Runners
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Primed
Positive
Fitter here racing on a quick back up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Backing up quickly. Seasoned performer. Strong win from just off the leaders this course first run back. Could add some value to exotics.
ILB
Racing on a quick back up. Ran over the top of them when winning last run at this venue but rising in grade. Large claim helps. Others much better.
RP
Season-ticket holder here with seven wins; caused a surprise in handicap a week ago; others appeal more as no great record on second run back following a layoff.
RSIS
Backing up quickly. Reeled them in when winning last run here but stepping up to a higher level. Large claim helps.
Career
18: 2-3-1
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
4: 0-0-0
Second-up
3: 0-1-1
Third-up
3: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-2-0
Track Caulfield
1: 0-0-0
Track Balaklava
2: 0-0-0
Track Flemington
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1050m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
3: 0-1-0
Going Good
12: 2-1-1
Going Soft
6: 0-2-0
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Recent form solid. Ran on soundly from midfield at Morphettville. In the placings only prior run here. Big show with even breaks.
ILB
Jumped at $5.00 and closed off nicely when 5th last time around here and goes down in class. Good prospects.
RP
Consistent lately; finished fifth but only beaten 2½l over 1m1f here (Listed race) last week; this is a step down in class but hard to recommend.
RSIS
Started 4/1 and made up ground when 5th last run around here and facing a weaker grade. Very tidy performer.
Career
28: 5-4-3
Rating · IRD
73
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
5: 0-0-0
Second-up
3: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 1-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-2-0
Track CurrentTrack
8: 1-1-1
Track Warrnambool
1: 0-0-0
Track Strathalbyn
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1210m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1562m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
24: 4-4-2
Going Soft
4: 1-0-1
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are winning 26% POT in their L100 Races
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 24% POT in L100 Runners
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 6%
Form 3rd Up
Positive
Has won 1 from 2 when third up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature
AAP
Sent out $41 when never got into the race at Gawler off spell. Not fancied.
ILB
Was $41.00 and lacked competitiveness when 14th last start at Gawler but competing in an easier class. Likely to settle back in the field. Have to look elsewhere.
RP
Towards the rear of 15 over 7½f at Gawler (handicap) when dropped in distance last month; a lot on her plate here and others more appealing.
RSIS
Odds of 40/1 and basic showing when 14th last time at Gawler but up against a less competitive field. Likely to get back in the run.
Career
23: 5-3-2
Rating · IRD
88
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
4: 1-0-0
Second-up
3: 1-0-1
Third-up
3: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-1-0
Track CurrentTrack
12: 2-2-1
Track Murray Bridge
3: 2-0-0
Track Gawler
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1250m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
5: 1-1-0
Going Good
10: 2-3-1
Going Heavy
2: 1-0-0
Going Soft
11: 2-0-1
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 18% better than Career Avg.
Trainer SR
Negative
Chris Bieg striking at just 4%
Key Rider
Positive
Caitlin Tootell 25% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 47%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 54% Profit on Turnover
Key Jockey
Positive
Caitlin Tootell winning at 11% POT in last 100 rides
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
AAP
Midfield, no rally and went to line tamely at Gawler. Rough exotics hope.
ILB
Weakened under pressure when 15th last run at Gawler but will find this grade more suitable. Can't leave out of your calculations.
RP
Behind several of these at Gawler over 7½f (handicap) when finishing last of 15 last month; has managed five wins from 23 career runs but not really built on success in a handicap in April at Morphettville; a few rivals look in good form so hard enough to fancy.
RSIS
Couldn't maintain the pace when 15th last run at Gawler but competing in a lower grade. Could feature here.
Career
23: 5-3-1
Rating · IRD
91
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
5: 3-0-0
Second-up
3: 1-1-0
Third-up
3: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
3: 0-2-0
Track Flemington
1: 0-0-1
Track Morphettville
12: 2-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
12: 2-0-0
Distance 1600m
4: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
4: 1-2-0
Going Good
16: 4-3-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
6: 1-0-0
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 5%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 47%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 54% Profit on Turnover
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 36% in L100 rides
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Put in a long run from the back at Gawler. Claiming apprentice engaged again. Worth a look.
ILB
Showed a good turn of foot when 2nd last time at Gawler and facing a weaker grade. The large claim from Felicity Atkinson should help. Has some claims.
RP
On the premises when second of 15 over 7½f at Gawler (handicap) last month; career record shows her ability to win (wins-runs record of 5-23); latest effort was encouraging so could be in the mix.
RSIS
Nice effort to run into 2nd last time at Gawler and competing in a less challenging grade. Felicity Atkinson provides some weight relief. Betting is the best guide.
Career
22: 4-3-4
Rating · IRD
79
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
4: 0-2-1
Second-up
3: 1-1-0
Third-up
3: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
3: 2-0-0
Track Murray Bridge
1: 0-0-0
Track Caulfield
2: 0-0-0
Track Moe
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
6: 1-3-1
Distance 1400m
6: 1-0-1
Distance 1522m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
15: 3-2-3
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-1
Going Soft
5: 1-1-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 28% in Last 100 Rides
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 5%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 38%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Improver
Positive
Poised to improve on recent form here
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Weight Drop
Positive
Drops 4kg from LS run
AAP
Handily placed and gave his all last time out at healthy odds. Very fit, among the dangers again.
ILB
Produced an eye catching run when 3rd last run at this venue and carrying less weight this time. The wide gate shouldn't be a problem with plenty of early speed. Entitled to be a big price.
RP
Decent effort when 20-1 third last month; likely player.
RSIS
Improved to place when 3rd beaten by 1 1/4L last run at this venue and carrying less weight this time.
Career
25: 4-5-6
Rating · IRD
86
Speed map
Leader
First-up
4: 1-1-1
Second-up
3: 0-0-0
Third-up
3: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-2-0
Track Oakbank
1: 0-0-0
Track Morphettville
15: 3-3-2
Track CurrentTrack
15: 3-3-2
Distance 1000m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1350m
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1514m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
17: 4-4-3
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-1
Going Soft
7: 0-1-2
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 19%
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Racing Strongly
Positive
Racing in great shape
AAP
Having a good preparation. Delivered in dominant style at last run. Good gate. Stays under strong notice for this.
ILB
Gave them all something to chase to win by 1 1/4L last run here and gets a favourable alley. Likely to be well placed early. In fine form this preparation. Watch the betting.
RP
Brings plenty of winning course form to the table; accounted for Maldini and Shadow Eagle when landing a handicap over this distance by just over 1l two weeks ago; despite that Morphettville success, not one to rely on.
RSIS
Took charge of the race to win by 1 1/4L last time here and has a good draw. Displays good tactical pace. Displaying good ability in recent runs. Can't leave out of your calculations.
Career
29: 5-5-2
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
7: 0-2-1
Second-up
5: 2-0-0
Third-up
4: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-1
Track Flemington
8: 0-1-0
Track Morphettville
9: 2-1-2
Track Strathalbyn
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1600m
4: 1-1-0
Distance 1000m
4: 0-2-1
Distance 1350m
1: 1-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
7: 0-1-0
Going Good
21: 5-4-2
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -40% POT in their L100 Races
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Primed
Positive
Fitter here racing on a quick back up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Backing up quickly. Started $12 when safely held in Benchmark 70 company this track second-up. Capable but needs to turn it around quickly.
ILB
On a quick turnaround. Started $12.00 and finished 8th last run at this track and facing a stronger class. Dropping weight. Others are more appealing.
RP
Not disgraced in eighth here over 7f (handicap) last Saturday just over 4l behind Willybeafactor; been out of sorts of late; easy to oppose as meeting a number of horses who are in good form.
RSIS
Backing up quickly for this race. Started at 11/1 and ran 8th last start at this track and taking on stronger competition. Will appreciate the drop in weight.
Career
27: 4-2-7
Rating · IRD
94
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
3: 1-0-1
Second-up
2: 1-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-1
Track Murray Bridge
2: 1-0-0
Track Gawler
3: 1-1-1
Track Morphettville
22: 2-1-6
Distance 1050m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
4: 2-0-1
Distance 1200m
9: 1-2-2
Going Good
18: 2-1-5
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
8: 2-1-2
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 5%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 52%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Latest form hard to fault. Solid showing here two back over 1600m. Not disgraced last start. Looking to atone here.
ILB
Jumped at $2.90 and moved through the field into 4th last time at this venue. Definite claims for punters.
RP
Favourite but out of the places when fourth last month; admirably consistent; this looks a decent race so unlikely to trouble the principals.
RSIS
Started 15/8 and picked up some late ground when 4th last time here. Should go close.