Illawarra Grange (NSW) horses tips & previews

15 Nov, 4:01 am AEDT

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Illawarra Grange (NSW), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Sat 14 Nov, 11:00 am AEDT

Meetings · Sat, 14 NovIllawarra Grange (NSW)Change

Race 2 — Illawarra Production Services Mdn Hcp 1300m · jumps Sat 14 Nov, 2:05 pm AEDT

Race notes

CG&E MDN,CG&E MDN HCP,Maiden
SOFT5
Overcast
8 runners

Shortest win price

Rain Delay (2)

1.32

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Firststart

1Mistadobalina
7Mount Emu
8Smashing Machine

Backmarker

4Bull Rush Boy
12Nonno's Power

Onpace

5Captain Peacock

Leader

2Rain Delay
6Chief Orator

Mistadobalina · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -49% POT in their L100 Races
Rain Delay · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are out performing market expectations by 54%
Bull Rush Boy · Negative
Trainer Recent
Camp struggling with S/R just 7%
Captain Peacock · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 24% in Last 100 Rides

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace

1MistadobalinaJ: Matt Kirk·T: R J Quinton459kg–$19.00$2.65

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed50%
Rating60%
Closing Speed50%

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -49% POT in their L100 Races

Comments

AAP

Trials (3:0-0-0). Out of an unraced half-sister to the stakes winner Cloudy Dawn. Matt Kirk stays aboard for debut. Creates interest on debut.

ILB

3yo runner on debut by Mehmas for trainer Ron Quinton. Unplaced in multiple barrier trials. Large claim helps. Watch betting.

Irish bred; already gelded; first start under rules for this four-year-old son of Mehmas; no surprise to see him go well.

RSIS

Initial race appearance 3yo by Mehmas for Ron Quinton. Finished 4th in a trial at Royal Randwick on Oct 6th. Matt Kirk takes a large claim. Betting is the best guide.

2Rain DelayJ: Jean Van Overmeire·T: Michael Freedman659kg–$1.32$1.02

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating100%
Closing Speed50%

Insights

Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 54%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Indicated early potential. Sent forward and stuck to the task bravely in the E&G Mdn at Newcastle at his second race start. Stripping fitter, will take a power of beating.

ILB

Just short of the win last time at Newcastle. Won't be far away during the run. Has not missed the placings this preparation in 2 attempts. Strongly fancied.

Beaten only narrowly at Newcastle last month; this only his second start in handicap company.

RSIS

Missed by a narrow margin last run at Newcastle. Will be positive in the run early. Been in the top three each start of late. Has to be in the finish.

3ZouvoltScratched12––––

Rating · IRD

Figures

Jockey50%
Trainer50%
Jockey/Trainer Combo50%
Early Speed50%
Rating50%
Closing Speed50%

Insights

1st Up
Negative
May need this run

Comments

AAP

Kicks off second campaign (18-weeks). Left a decent impression on debut at Sale 9 Jul. Better for race exposure and two subsequent trials, latest at Warwick Farm 30 Oct. Hope for exotics.

ILB

Fresh after a spell. Did well to run into 2nd last run at Sale and having second race start.

RSIS

Back after a break. Finished well when 2nd beaten by 1 1/4L last run at Sale and fitter for debut run.

4Bull Rush BoyJ: Grant Buckley·T: Edward Cummings358kg6 6 4 101: 0-0-0$71.00$4.40

Career

1: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating20%
Closing Speed60%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Hawkesbury
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

10Hawkesbury1100m27 Oct 2026 · MDN · GOOD410.58L
4Hawkesbury1000m20 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)2.8L
6Hawkesbury800m29 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)10.1L
6Rosehill900m11 May 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)5.1L

Insights

Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 7%
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 79%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 23%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature

Comments

AAP

Had no answers when the pressure went on at Hawkesbury debut at cricket score odds 27 Oct. Big lift needed from there.

ILB

Started $101.00 and below par performance when 10th last start at Hawkesbury but having second career run. Gets back and needs luck. Needs a lot of luck to figure in the finish.

Seemed to find life tough on his debut last month at Hawkesbury; this just his second run in a handicap; progress needed on this second career run.

RSIS

Started 100/1 and disappointing run when 10th last run at Hawkesbury but having second career run. Does take a while to get into stride.

5Captain PeacockJ: Jeff Penza·T: K J Parker758kg2 4 8 2 53: 0-0-0$13.00$2.20

Career

3: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed20%
Rating60%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Kembla Grange
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

5Kembla Grange1200m24 Oct 2026 · 3UP CG&E MDN-SW · GOOD43.3L
2Kembla Grange800m7 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)0.4L
8Kembla Grange1400m20 June 2026 · MDN-SW · SOFT54.3L
4Kembla Grange1300m2 June 2026 · MDN HCP · HEAVY81.4L
2Illawarra Grange800m6 May 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)1.8L
2Kembla Grange800m6 Jan 2026 · Barrier Trial2.8L
7Kembla Grange800m1 Sept 2025 · Barrier Trial7.8L

Insights

Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 24% in Last 100 Rides
Key Rider
Positive
Jeff Penza 22% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -43% POT in their L100 Races
Key Jockey
Positive
Jeff Penza winning at 10% POT in last 100 rides
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Performance just fair at Kembla Grange first run back at $12. Strips in better shape. Looks an each-way hope.

ILB

Odds of $12.00 and weakened to finish 5th last start at Kembla Grange. Has strong claims.

Fair effort when beaten just over 3l, finishing fifth of eight in a maiden (Kembla Grange) 21 days ago; still looking to open his account after three runs; passed over.

RSIS

At 11/1 looked outclassed when 5th last time at Kembla Grange. Must respect.

6Chief OratorJ: Jess Taylor·T: Craig Carmody858kg9 8 91: 0-0-0$71.00$4.40

Career

1: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed20%
Rating20%
Closing Speed20%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Kembla Grange
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

9Kembla Grange1600m22 Jan 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · SOFT77.8L
8Randwick Kensington850m9 Dec 2025 · Barrier Trial11.3L
9Randwick1045m30 May 2025 · Barrier Trial11.7L

Insights

Hot Trainer
Positive
Craig Carmody in good form, out performing market 58%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 42% POT in L100 Runners
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Fronting up for second campaign (42-weeks). Found the debut assignment beyond him at Kembla Grange at a mammoth price 22 Jan. Awkwardly drawn. Long break and would need to improve.

ILB

Fresh after a break of 42 weeks. Was $151.00 and couldn't stay in touch when 9th last run at Kembla Grange but was a debutant last start. Prefer in a much weaker race.

Held on his debut at Kembla Grange over 1m at 150-1 in January; returns from an absence here; could improve from his debut but will need to.

RSIS

Back after a 42 week break. Odds of 150/1 and tailed off to finish 9th last run at Kembla Grange but was a debutant last start. Coming back in trip.

7Mount EmuJ: Shaun Guymer·T: G Ryan & S Alexiou257.5kg5$26.00$3.10

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed50%
Rating40%
Closing Speed50%

Last starts

5Rosehill900m19 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)4.9L

Insights

Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 2
Market Watch
Negative
Keep eye on betting moves

Comments

AAP

Trials (2:0-0-0). Out of a three-quarter-sister to the stakes winner Loveme. Heads into debut with two modest trials. Nice gate. Look to market for a further guide.

ILB

Career debut 3yo by Victor Ludorum for Sterling Alexiou & Gerald Ryan and drawn nicely. Ran 5th in a barrier trial at Rosehill Gardens on Oct 19th. Betting is the best guide.

Trainer gets plenty of debutant winners; racing education begins here for this son of Victor Ludorum; already gelded; likely to be a threat with signs of encouragement in profile and the stable is in good nick.

RSIS

Victor Ludorum 3yo trained by Sterling Alexiou & Gerald Ryan having first race start and has a good draw. Yet to place in all trials.

8Smashing MachineJ: Mitchell Bell·T: Richard Litt157.5kg–$10.00$1.80

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed50%
Rating40%
Closing Speed50%

Insights

Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 49%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 23% POT in L100 Runners
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low

Comments

AAP

Trials (3:0-0-1). $50k purchase. Out of a half-sister to Listed winner Green Roller. Good draw. Prefer to see on debut.

ILB

First appearance at the races 3yo by Captivant for Richard Litt and can save some energy from the draw. Watch early betting.

This son of Captivant is having his first start under rules; clear chance with signs of encouragement in profile - form of his yard is an obvious plus.

RSIS

Richard Litt trained 3yo first starter by Captivant and will appreciate a good draw. Ran 3rd in a trial at Warwick Farm on June 9th.

9Three ProphetsScratched4––––

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer40%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed50%
Rating40%
Closing Speed50%

Last starts

6Warwick Farm798m30 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)6.5L
5Warwick Farm815m13 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(6)1.2L

Insights

Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 45% lower than Career Avg.
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 10%
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -30% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 30%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 45% Profit on Turnover
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 52% in L100 rides
Backup
Positive
Racing again inside one week

Comments

AAP

Trials (2:0-0-0). $300k purchase. Out of a Group 2-winning mare. Making debut after two lead-up trials. Drawn well. Might be one to watch at this stage.

ILB

On a short turnaround. Failed to threaten last time at Canterbury but was on debut last time. Slim chance.

Related to 5f winner Prophet's Lass; Ciaron Maher can ready one to strike at the first time of asking; question mark over whether he will need the experience and is best watched for now; was due to run at Canterbury Friday.

RSIS

Backing up quickly. Unsighted last run at Canterbury but having second career run.

10ThreesomeScratched8––––

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating80%
Closing Speed80%

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -60% POT in their L100 Races
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Ran a cracking race when just edged out at Kembla Grange 24 Oct. Right in the mix again.

ILB

Backing up quickly for this race. Secured a close victory last start at Canterbury and showing improvement in recent outings. Going well this preparation.

RSIS

On a quick back up. Got the upper hand late when winning last time at Canterbury and showing improvement in recent outings. Performing impressively since coming back from a break.

11GerroaScratched3––––

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey50%
Trainer50%
Jockey/Trainer Combo50%
Early Speed50%
Rating60%
Closing Speed50%

Insights

1st Up
Negative
May need this run

Comments

AAP

Back for second campaign (17-weeks). With premier stable but safely contained at Warwick Farm debut at healthy odds 15 Jul. Took benefit from that and trialled twice since, latest at Rosehill 4 Nov. Only for the minors.

ILB

Backs up quickly. In the money when 3rd last run at Canterbury.

RSIS

On a quick turnaround. Nice run when 3rd last run at Canterbury.

12Nonno's PowerJ: Rory Hutchings·T: Joseph Pride557kg4 4 5 7 66: 0-0-0$5.50$1.30

Career

6: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Newcastle
2: 0-0-0
Track Warwick Farm
1: 0-0-0
Track Wyong
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1250m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
4: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0

Last starts

6Hawkesbury1300m27 Oct 2026 · 4UP MDN HCP · GOOD43.12L
7Warwick Farm813m13 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(6)6.4L
5Rosehill900m2 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)5.9L
4Newcastle1500m19 May 2026 · MDN-SW · SOFT73L
4Wyong1350m7 May 2026 · MDN · GOOD42.3L
7Newcastle1250m23 Apr 2026 · MDN SW · SOFT53.3L
5Gosford1200m2 Apr 2026 · Maiden · GOOD41.3L
8Warwick Farm786m20 Mar 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(7)7.5L

Insights

Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Got back and wasn't totally disgraced at Hawkesbury off long spell. Building fitness. Capable of making an impact.

ILB

Started at $6.00 and came in 6th last time at Hawkesbury. Has very good finishing speed. Keep safe.

Not disgraced when sixth of ten at Hawkesbury two weeks ago; yet to manage better than fourth in his six races; is passed over.

RSIS

Was 5/1 and finished 6th last start at Hawkesbury. Possesses very good closing pace. Watch betting.

Odds correct as at Sat 14 Nov, 2:11 pm AEDT. Odds can change.

Past meetings

Thu 1 Oct, 10:00 am AEST · 8 races
Thu 17 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 7 races