Shortest win price
Paris Winds (4)
3.10
Class 1 handicap over 1200 metres at Launceston in fine conditions on a Good 4 track at 6:35 pm AEDT. Paris Winds is shortest in the market, with Oxidize next, then Warrior Smile and Waltzing Matilda rounding out the top four in the win order. The race shapes as a genuine scramble across the classes with plenty of runners in the mix and nowhere to hide over the straight mile.
Paris Winds rates a real chance at shortest odds. The runner has freshened after 42 to 60 days out and now drops back to a suitable class after racing in BM62 company. Fresh first-up runners from this stable bring form, and the comment suggests a measured approach to getting back on track. Warrior Smile sits next at barrier eight and fought bravely to the wire last time over this trip in Class 1 here. The form suggests the run before a barrier trial has freshened the horse, and the current shape points to better things second-up for the new stable. Oxidize should not be ignored either — second at Launceston over 1200 metres in Class 2 last time, and the comment flags the runner as profiling well on the back of that recent outing.
Out Of The Sphere is worth tracking deeper in the market. The runner holds the lead role in the speed map and carries clear jockey booking data — Luke P Dempsey is outperforming his career average by 30 per cent in the last 100 rides and sits 40 per cent above market expected across that period. The numbers say the booking deserves respect. Waltzing Matilda posted an encouraging effort for the new stable and is a winner over this trip at Launceston, with the recent run flagged as warranting inclusion. Alpine Honey sits outside the placegetters but brings hot jockey-trainer combo data — winning at 40 per cent POT across the last 100 races — and rates well to the map position here.
Shortest win price
Paris Winds (4)
3.10
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Gilly's Boy · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are out performing market expectations by 58%
Warrior Smile · Negative
Rider
Negative rider change today
Out Of The Sphere · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 30% in Last 100 Rides
Paris Winds · Positive
Fresh
Freshened up. Had a break of 42-60 days
Career
2: 1-0-0
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
1: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
2: 1-0-0
Track Launceston
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1120m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 1-0-0
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 58%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Track Stats
Positive
Excels at this track
AAP
Debut winner at Launceston 2 Oct. Out of the placings but still acquitted himself well this track at second start. Worth a look.
ILB
Started $12.00 and ran past a few when 4th last run around here and will try to take advantage of the alley. Will go close today.
RP
Just his third outing so still early days; has won at this course; close up behind Waltzing Matilda when fourth over 5½f here (handicap) last month; running in a handicap for just the second time; plenty of appeal if in the same mood as when achieving most recent success.
RSIS
At 11/1 edged past some when finishing 4th last start at the track and will try to take advantage of the stall. Will be there at the business end.
Career
10: 1-0-2
Rating · IRD
92
Speed map
Leader
First-up
4: 0-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Seymour
1: 0-0-0
Track Caulfield
1: 0-0-0
Track Launceston
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1243m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1400m
2: 0-0-1
Going Soft
2: 0-0-1
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 1-0-1
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -40% POT in their L100 Races
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 7%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Up In Dist
Positive
Racing at a more suitable distance
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Winkers Off
Positive
Winkers coming off this start
AAP
Fought bravely to the wire in the Hcp (C1) this venue for new trainer. Strips in better shape. Since trialled at Launceston 5 Nov. Right in the mix again.
ILB
Good effort to finish 3rd last start around here. Placed 3rd in a barrier trial here on Nov 5th. Has the early speed to burn across from the wide draw. Definitely worth considering.
RP
Ran well to finish third (beaten just under 2l) four weeks ago on debut for this trainer; encouragement to be gleaned from latest effort so one to take seriously.
RSIS
Kept chasing when 3rd last start here. The wide stall shouldn't be a problem with plenty of early pace. Gets a chance against these.
Career
9: 1-0-1
Rating · IRD
80
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
3: 0-0-1
Second-up
2: 1-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
2: 0-0-0
Track Devonport Synthetic
5: 1-0-1
Track Hobart
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1009m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1120m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1150m
4: 1-0-0
Going Good
4: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
5: 1-0-1
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 30% in Last 100 Rides
Jockey Booking
Positive
Luke P Dempsey 40% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 590%
Trainer Form
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectations 29%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 10% POT in L100 Runners
Hot Jockey
Positive
Luke P Dempsey in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 40%
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 7%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
AAP
Not disgraced this track over this trip at $20. Not out of this.
ILB
Jumped at $20.00 and couldn't maintain the pace when 6th last time here and has to carry more weight this time. Has the speed to overcome the wide alley. Others much better.
RP
Not beaten too far when sixth of ten four weeks ago - split Warrior Smile and Nikolsky; passed over with several rivals in good nick.
RSIS
At 19/1 tailed off to finish 6th last time here and will have to carry extra weight. Has the necessary pace to overcome the wide draw.
Career
7: 1-0-1
Rating · IRD
87
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
3: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Track Kilmore
1: 0-0-0
Track Morphettville
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1012m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1100m
2: 0-0-1
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
4: 1-0-1
Fresh
Positive
Freshened up. Had a break of 42-60 days
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Let-up (54-days). Ex D T O'Brien in Victoria. Sent out $10 when unable to threaten at Ballarat over this trip. Keeping safe at first run for new stable.
ILB
Freshened up. Jumped at $10.00 and weakened to finish 7th last start at Ballarat. Change in trainer. Likely to be well placed early. Minor claims.
RP
Finished seventh but wasn't beaten too far (4½l, Ballarat) two months ago; starts out for new stable; capable if in the mood so ought to be of interest.
RSIS
Freshened up. Odds of 9/1 and faded to finish 7th last time at Ballarat. Coming to a new trainer. Likely to be well placed early.
Career
7: 1-1-3
Rating · IRD
94
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
3: 0-1-2
Second-up
2: 1-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Hobart
3: 0-0-2
Track Launceston
4: 1-1-1
Track CurrentTrack
4: 1-1-1
Distance 1100m
2: 0-1-1
Distance 1120m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
3: 0-0-2
Going Good
4: 1-1-1
Going Soft
3: 0-0-2
Trainer SR
Negative
Stuart Gandy striking at just 10%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -26% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 29%
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 7%
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Strong win from just off the leaders this venue when second-up. Sharper now, can make her presence felt again if things pan out.
ILB
Ran on strongly to win last run around here and showing improvement in recent outings. Been in the money each attempt this campaign. Expect a forward showing.
RP
Shown recent signs of improvement; opened account at the seventh attempt in a maiden 19 days ago, getting the job done by 1½l; possibilities.
RSIS
Rounded them up to win last run here and showing improvement in recent outings. Has not missed the placings of late in 2 attempts. Strong prospects in this race.
Career
12: 1-0-1
Rating · IRD
87
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
2: 0-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
3: 1-0-1
Track Avoca
1: 0-0-0
Track Burrumbeet
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1120m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
3: 1-0-0
Going Good
8: 0-0-1
Going Soft
3: 1-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -49% POT in their L100 Races
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 7%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 1
AAP
Kept on for the minor spoils in skinny line-up this venue for new stable. Better for the outing. Winner this trip. Encouraging latest and warrants inclusion.
ILB
Tidy effort when 3rd last time at this track and has the ideal barrier. Has shown early pace in races to date. Possible place chance.
RP
Respectable third over 5½f here (handicap) with Gilly's Boy just behind on first run for this trainer last month; boasts winning form over C&D.
RSIS
In the money when 3rd last start around here and drawn nicely. Should race on the pace.
Career
9: 1-2-0
Rating · IRD
91
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
4: 0-2-0
Second-up
2: 1-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Hobart
4: 0-0-0
Track Launceston
5: 1-2-0
Track CurrentTrack
5: 1-2-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1120m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
6: 1-2-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-0
Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 52% lower than Career Avg.
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 63% in L100 rides
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 23%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Came home hot on their heels to grab second Hcp (C2) this venue after lengthy absence. Better for the outing. Profiles well.
ILB
Finished with intent when 2nd beaten by 1L last start here. Should muster plenty of early speed. Watch for a sign in the market.
RP
Went down by 1l when second last month; a winner over C&D.
RSIS
Good run when finishing 2nd beaten by 1L last time at this track. Won't be far away during the run. Betting is the best guide.
Career
10: 1-1-1
Rating · IRD
91
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
4: 0-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Morphettville
1: 0-0-0
Track Strathalbyn
1: 0-0-0
Track Murray Bridge
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
5: 0-1-1
Distance 1350m
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 0-0-1
Going Soft
3: 0-1-0
Going Synthetic
2: 1-0-0
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Up In Dist
Positive
Racing at a more suitable distance
AAP
Got back and wasn't totally disgraced this track off long spell. Fitter second-up and takes a 2kg claim. Usually gets back. Distant place hope only.
ILB
Underwhelming when 7th last time at this track. Ran 3rd in a barrier trial at this venue on Nov 5th. Value play.
RP
Not beaten too far when seventh here last month; a few rivals look in good form so unlikely to do better than a supporting role.
RSIS
Not up to standard when 7th last run around here. Displays very good closing pace. Ran 3rd in a trial at the track on Nov 5th. A threat to the other main hopes.
Career
17: 1-0-3
Rating · IRD
76
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Hobart
10: 0-0-3
Track Launceston
6: 1-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
6: 1-0-0
Distance 1390m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1430m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
6: 0-0-1
Going Soft
10: 1-0-2
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Trainer SR
Negative
Adrian Duggan striking at just 4%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 32%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 41% Profit on Turnover
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Dist Drop
Negative
Distance decrease from last start
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
First-up (24-weeks). Ex Sigrid Carr Tasmania. Hard to make a case beyond the minors fresh in this company.
ILB
Racing fresh after a break. Odds of $13.00 and didn't threaten when 8th last run at Hobart and back in trip. Racing for a new trainer. Will need to find a few more lengths.
RP
Held when eighth of 11 in a conditions race at Hobart in May; has won previously at this course; not the most consistent of horses lately; back from an absence here; representing new trainer today; this looks a decent race so has some questions to answer.
RSIS
Fresh today. At 12/1 gave away some ground when 8th last run at Hobart and dropping in distance. Change in trainer.
Career
22: 1-2-2
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
5: 0-0-1
Track Longford
1: 0-0-0
Track Mildura
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1420m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2100m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 2150m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
7: 1-0-1
Going Soft
13: 0-2-0
Going Synthetic
2: 0-0-1
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are winning 40% POT in their L100 Races
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 23%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Form At Track
Negative
Yet to win here
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Hasn't done much since breaking his maiden. Failed to threaten (outside alley) at Hobart over this trip at a mammoth price. Needs to recapture form.
ILB
On a short back up. Jumped at $101.00 and tailed off to finish 9th last start at Hobart. Considering others.
RP
Shown only moderate recent form and you have to go back a fair way to find his only win; ninth of 12 when dropped in distance (Hobart) last week; this is competitive and only limited appeal.
RSIS
Racing on a quick back up. Was 100/1 and faded away to finish 9th last run at Hobart.