Shortest win price
Carriedo (9)
1.75
Up ya go! Geelong hosts Race 7 on an overcast day with a Good 4 track for the 1335m Orix BM66. The win market jumps off the page with Carriedo leading the betting order, followed closely by Neziha, Small Town Hero, Suspect, Sacro Catino, and Port Louis as we get set for a cracking battle at 4:10 pm AEDT. The numbers say this is a wide-open contest where speed and track form will play a massive part in sorting the winners from the losers!
The form behind those shorter prices points straight to Carriedo from barrier 5 for G M Begg with Jordan Childs steering. This runner excels at this track and has early speed, which is a big tick on this circuit, and looks ready to peak third-up after battling home okay at Cranbourne. Neziha is shooting for a hat-trick for Ben, Will & Jd Hayes from barrier 4 after a determined effort to secure victory at Swan Hill second-up, looking nicely weighted here after the claim with Jackson Radley in the saddle. Small Town Hero draws barrier 2 for Brett Conlon and Joe Bowditch, coming here freshened since a run at Cranbourne and ready to play a role from the front.
Digging further into the pack, Suspect starts from barrier 1 for J L Grob and Dean Yendall, fresh off getting up in the final strides at Warrnambool, while Port Louis and Sacro Catino add plenty of depth from their respective gates. Carriedo rates a real chance with the track stats backing him up, so lock it in as a major player in this benchmark clash. Up ya go and good luck with your punting!
Shortest win price
Carriedo (9)
1.75
Most career wins
Port Louis
9-7-6 from 68 starts
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Midfield
Offpace
Leader
Port Louis · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Neziha · Negative
Jockey Booking
Less suitable jockey engaged
Small Town Hero · Negative
Current SR
Rider’s recent POT is returning 35% lower than Career Avg.
Suspect · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 17% better than Career Avg.
Career
21: 4-8-1
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
4: 1-1-0
Second-up
3: 0-1-0
Third-up
3: 1-1-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-2-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Track Kilmore
1: 0-1-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
5: 1-3-0
Distance 1106m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1112m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
17: 4-7-1
Going Soft
4: 0-1-0
Weight Increase
Negative
Rises 6kg now
AAP
Reeled in leaders late to salute at Wagga. Tougher again but poised to deliver another big performance.
ILB
Rounded them up to win last time at Wagga and facing a weaker group of contenders. Going well this preparation and has drawn the rails.
RP
Got the job done in a handicap by a head upped to 7f (Wagga) last month; passed over despite that win at Wagga.
RSIS
Stormed home to win last start at Wagga and matched against less formidable competition. Drawn the rails. Has to carry more weight this time.
Career
68: 9-7-6
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
8: 1-1-1
Second-up
7: 1-0-1
Third-up
7: 1-2-0
Fourth-up
7: 1-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
5: 0-0-0
Track Hamilton
5: 2-0-0
Track Kyneton
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1218m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
23: 8-3-2
Distance 1203m
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
15: 2-3-1
Going Synthetic
3: 0-0-0
Going Good
36: 2-4-4
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Form
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectations 45%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 7%
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Form At Track
Negative
Yet to win here
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Not disgraced at Warrnambool at $26. Unplaced from 5 starts here. Looking elsewhere.
ILB
Odds of $26.00 and didn't threaten when 6th last start at Warrnambool. Should be going forward early. Struggle to recommend.
RP
Was behind Suspect at Warrnambool two weeks ago when beaten just over 3l in sixth over 6f (handicap); unlikely to achieve more than just a supporting role as this looks a fair heat.
RSIS
Started 25/1 and tailed off to finish 6th last start at Warrnambool. Should come to hand quickly.
Career
5: 2-0-0
Rating · IRD
80
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
2: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
3: 2-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
3: 1-0-0
Distance 1400m
2: 1-0-0
Going Good
5: 2-0-0
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 74%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 19% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 7%
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Went home tamely this venue when second-up at $6. Rates highly on win two back.
ILB
Odds of $6.00 and came in 7th last time here. Might be ridden for luck.
RP
Missed the frame (beaten 6l into seventh) here over 7f (handicap) last month; successful in a handicap two months ago and wouldn't rule out a big run.
RSIS
Was 5/1 and ran 7th last time at this track. Likely to settle back in the field.
Career
23: 4-4-0
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
6: 0-2-0
Second-up
5: 1-2-0
Third-up
4: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 1-0-0
Track Ballarat
2: 0-0-0
Track Hobart
1: 0-0-0
Track Swan Hill
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1472m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
17: 3-2-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
3: 1-2-0
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 44%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 15%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Ran on soundly from midfield at Horsham. Right in the mix.
ILB
Was $14.00 and crept into 4th last run at Horsham. Has been a model of consistency this preparation.
RP
Fair effort (beaten just under 2l) at Horsham over 7f (handicap) 26 days ago; this line-up contains some strong opposition so unlikely to do better than a supporting role.
RSIS
Was 13/1 and made up ground when 4th last time at Horsham.
Career
30: 4-6-2
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
7: 1-1-0
Second-up
6: 0-0-2
Third-up
4: 1-1-0
Fourth-up
4: 0-2-0
Track Caulfield Heath
2: 0-1-0
Track Flemington
6: 1-1-2
Track Cranbourne
3: 0-1-0
Distance 1100m
4: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
19: 4-4-1
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
6: 3-0-0
Going Synthetic
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
21: 1-6-2
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 5%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 38%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 48% Profit on Turnover
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Sent out $31 when never got into the race at Cranbourne second-up. All the better, at best, a place hope.
ILB
Performed below standard when 6th last start at Cranbourne. The large claim from Chelsea Thompson should help.
RP
Beaten sixth of nine over 6f at Cranbourne (handicap) last month; can be a player at this level; not discounted as shown she can get her head in front.
RSIS
Was nothing special when 6th last start at Cranbourne. Large claim helps.
Career
5: 3-1-0
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
3: 1-1-0
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-1-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-1-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
3: 2-0-0
Distance 1207m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1350m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
3: 2-1-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 1-0-0
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 6% POT in L100 Runners
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Consecutive Wins
Positive
Has strung together a few races in a row
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Good Form
Positive
Very competitive in recent runs
AAP
Shooting for hat-trick. Determined effort to secure victory at Swan Hill second-up. Mare in form and nicely weighted after the claim.
ILB
Finished with purpose when winning last time at Swan Hill and honest performer putting a tidy record together. Flawless this preparation with 2 wins from 2 runs. Strong claims.
RP
Scored by a slim margin in a handicap (Swan Hill) two weeks ago; has made a pleasing start to her career with three wins from five starts and seeking a hat-trick today; respected.
RSIS
Finished hard to win last time at Swan Hill and showing consistent performance in races. Flawless lately with 2 wins from 2 runs. Tough competitor.
Career
16: 3-4-0
Rating · IRD
86
Speed map
Leader
First-up
4: 0-1-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-1-0
Track Bendigo
2: 1-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1209m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1210m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
3: 1-0-0
Going Good
9: 1-3-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
6: 2-1-0
Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 35% lower than Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 41% in L100 rides
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Gap In Runs
Negative
Not raced for 35 days
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Freshened since return. Faded off the lead at Cranbourne off long spell. Better draw here and big weights don't seem to worry him. Can play a role.
ILB
Was $16.00 and couldn't maintain the pace when 4th last run at Cranbourne. Should muster plenty of early speed. Should be in the finish.
RP
Fourth of 11 beaten 6l (Cranbourne) last month; this line-up contains some strong opposition so not one to rely on.
RSIS
Was 15/1 and faded in the closing stages when 4th last run at Cranbourne. Shows good early pace. Win will not surprise.
Career
20: 3-1-3
Rating · IRD
81
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
4: 0-1-2
Second-up
3: 1-0-1
Third-up
2: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Gold Coast
1: 0-0-0
Track Goulburn
1: 0-0-0
Track Kembla Grange
4: 0-0-2
Distance 1300m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1350m
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1400m
6: 1-0-1
Going Good
15: 3-1-3
Going Soft
4: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 17% better than Career Avg.
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Key Jockey
Positive
Dean Yendall winning at 7% POT in last 100 rides
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Form 3rd Up
Positive
Has won 1 from 2 when third up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Emerged from midfield to get up in final strides at Warrnambool. Would take an effort to reapeat the dose.
ILB
Romped home to win last run at Warrnambool and has a good draw. Has some claims.
RP
Back in the winners' enclosure at Warrnambool over 6f (handicap) when springing a surprise to win at 20-1 last month; easy enough to take on despite that win last time.
RSIS
Finished with purpose when winning last start at Warrnambool and can find a nice position from the draw. Watch for a sign in the market.
Career
8: 2-1-2
Rating · IRD
94
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
3: 0-0-2
Second-up
2: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Cranbourne
2: 0-1-0
Track Kyneton
1: 0-0-1
Track Sandown
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1400m
3: 1-0-0
Distance 1125m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-1-1
Going Good
8: 2-1-2
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Track Stats
Positive
Excels at this track
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Battled home okay at Cranbourne second-up. Ready to peak third-up and Childs sticks. Will take stopping in this company.
ILB
Odds of $4.40 and faded away to finish 6th last start at Cranbourne. Expecting improvement. Good tough competitor that can be supported.
RP
Has won here previously; can be a player at this level; not disgraced when sixth of nine at Cranbourne over 7f (handicap) last month; brings winning form to the table and likely to be involved.
RSIS
Was 10/3 and faded away to finish 6th last start at Cranbourne. Should bounce back. Strong chance.
Career
22: 3-1-1
Rating · IRD
77
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
2: 1-0-0
Track Gosford
1: 1-0-0
Track Pakenham Synthetic
2: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
11: 3-0-0
Going Heavy
6: 0-1-1
Going Soft
3: 0-0-0
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 5%
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 121%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 38%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 48% Profit on Turnover
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
AAP
On a tight rein and mowed them down late at Mornington first up. Goes into wider exotics.
ILB
Displayed a good turn of foot when winning last time at Mornington but challenged by a tougher grade. Some hope in this event.
RP
Gained narrow success in a handicap (dropped to 6f, Mornington) last month; he can be taken on despite that win last time.
RSIS
Displayed a good turn of foot when winning last start at Mornington but challenged by a tougher grade.