Shortest win price
Akari Spirit (2)
3.20
Geelong R5: Geelong Entertainment Solutions (Bm56) over 1750m on a Good 4 track with overcast skies jumps at 2:55 pm AEDT! The win market has Akari Spirit sitting at the head of affairs, closely followed by Forest Jim, So Long Ago, and Wondering Spirit rounding out the early fancies in the betting order.
Taking a look at the form behind those shorter prices, Akari Spirit comes into this off a triumphant win on speed at Kilmore over 1612m on soft ground followed by a strong runner-up finish at Bendigo, suggesting this runner can go on with it now. Wondering Spirit strips fitter second run back after finishing fourth at Mornington over 1500m, and the stats point to this runner being suited over the longer trip. Forest Jim also brings appeal after letting down strongly for a placing in restricted 56 company at Bendigo over 1600m.
Down the list, Egerton Reef maps well as the leader and is noted for outperforming market expectations by 12% at this track, giving up ya go punters plenty to ponder in a competitive contest where the numbers say multiple runners rate a real chance.
Shortest win price
Akari Spirit (2)
3.20
Most career wins
Dane On Tour
5-8-5 from 51 starts
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offmidfield
Midfield
Offpace
Leader
Earl Of Gloucester · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Akari Spirit · Negative
Jockey Booking
Less suitable jockey engaged
Boggy Creek Boys · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Wondering Spirit · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 17% in Last 100 Rides
Career
8: 1-1-0
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Ararat
1: 1-0-0
Track Seymour
1: 0-0-0
Track Kyneton
2: 0-1-0
Distance 2200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2206m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 2350m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
8: 1-1-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Well beaten LS
Negative
Not competitive last run
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Sent out $31 when never got into the race at Kyneton after lengthy absence. Building fitness. Can play a role.
ILB
Odds of $31.00 and ordinary performance when 8th last time at Kyneton. Facing a difficult task.
RP
Held when eighth of nine over 7½f at Kyneton (handicap) dropped back in distance 24 days ago; this is his grade and has shown some recent improvement; this only his second handicap outing; successful in a maiden in March and may be involved.
RSIS
Odds of 30/1 and only fair when 8th last time at Kyneton.
Career
8: 1-3-1
Rating · IRD
84
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Flemington
1: 0-0-0
Track Kilmore
2: 1-1-0
Track Mornington
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2450m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1450m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1600m
3: 0-1-1
Going Good
5: 0-3-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 1-0-0
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 21% POT in L100 Runners
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 34% in L100 rides
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Margin LS
Positive
Won by a big margin last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Consistent
Positive
Showing up at the business end
AAP
Triumphant on speed display at Kilmore. Can go on with it now.
ILB
Spaced the field to win by 3 1/2L last run at Kilmore and showing improvement in recent outings. Has shown early pace in races to date. Watch betting.
RP
Appears to be on the upgrade judged on two most recent runs; comfortable winner, breaking his duck at the eighth time of asking at Kilmore 14 days ago in a maiden; despite that Kilmore success, not one to rely on.
RSIS
Ran away with a win by a margin of 3 1/2L last run at Kilmore and on an upward trajectory in recent races. Shows good early pace. Watch for a sign in the market.
Career
4: 1-1-0
Rating · IRD
97
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
2: 0-1-0
Track Donald
1: 1-0-0
Track Warrnambool
3: 0-1-0
Distance 1350m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1400m
3: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
2: 1-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Form
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectations 60%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 38% POT in L100 Runners
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 10%
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Well back and never a factor at Warrnambool off long spell. Can improve up in trip.
ILB
Lacked competitiveness when 11th last start at Warrnambool but has a good draw. Displays very good closing speed. Good chance at a nice price.
RP
Finished towards the rear of 14 at Warrnambool over 7f (handicap) last month; lightly raced (running for just the fifth time); big player as shown he can get his head in front.
RSIS
Had difficulty when 11th last time at Warrnambool but has a good draw. Has a nice turn of foot. Gets a chance against these.
Career
16: 2-1-3
Rating · IRD
94
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
4: 0-1-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-1
Third-up
2: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Track Echuca
1: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1750m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2000m
3: 1-0-1
Distance 2020m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
13: 2-0-2
Going Soft
2: 0-1-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-1
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 17% in Last 100 Rides
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Strips fitter second run back and suited over the longer trip. Right in this.
ILB
Advanced late into 4th last run at Mornington. Must respect.
RP
He meets the required standard ability wise; creditable effort to finish fourth, beaten 1½l over 7½f at Mornington (handicap) with Egerton Reef just behind 22 days ago; cannot be ignored as shown he can win fairly recently.
RSIS
Hit the line well when 4th last run at Mornington. Serious contender.
Rating · IRD
95
Speed map
Offmidfield
AAP
Raced in back half and was never in a position to mount a serious challenge at Kilmore. Drops to shorter trip. Very fit, can fill the minors here.
ILB
Jumped at $13.00 and came in 6th last start at Kilmore.
RSIS
Was 12/1 and finished 6th last run at Kilmore.
Career
11: 1-1-2
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Leader
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
3: 0-0-1
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -34% POT in their L100 Races
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 12%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Reasonable effort without seriously threatening at Mornington. Worth a look.
ILB
Was $15.00 and got going late when 5th last time at Mornington. Has the early speed to burn across from the wide alley. Tough ask.
RP
Consistent performer; not beaten too far (just under 2l) over 7½f at Mornington (handicap, close behind Wondering Spirit) last month; meeting some horses in good form and others make more appeal.
RSIS
At 14/1 ran on into 5th last run at Mornington. Has the necessary pace to overcome the wide draw.
Career
11: 2-3-1
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Terang
2: 1-1-0
Track Avoca
1: 1-0-0
Track Mortlake
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1450m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
2: 1-1-0
Going Good
5: 2-1-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-2-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -20% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 7% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 12%
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Set pace and caught late at Mortlake. Well into preparation now, has some claims.
ILB
Maintained a solid pace but eventually weakened to finish 2nd beaten by 1 1/2L last run at Mortlake. Strong claims.
RP
Second at Mortlake when 9-4 over 1m2f (handicap) last month; no surprise to see her go well.
RSIS
Couldn't keep the pace going when 2nd beaten by 1 1/2L last time at Mortlake. Definite winning chance.
Career
22: 2-0-1
Rating · IRD
74
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Sandown
1: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
6: 0-0-0
Track Moonee Valley
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1408m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1425m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
15: 1-0-1
Going Heavy
3: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 1-0-0
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 2%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 44%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Form At Track
Negative
Yet to win here
Primed
Positive
Fitter here racing on a quick back up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Backing up quickly after being well backed here last Saturday. Respecting that move.
ILB
On a short turnaround. Odds of $3.50 and folded up in the straight when 8th last start at the track. Sarah Field provides some weight relief. Will need its best to find a place.
RP
A disappointing result (went off favourite) when beaten just over 2l last Saturday; may have to settle for supporting role as a few rivals look in good form.
RSIS
Racing on a quick back up. Started 5/2 and couldn't maintain the pace when 8th last time around here. The large claim from Sarah Field helps.
Career
51: 5-8-5
Rating · IRD
79
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
7: 1-2-0
Second-up
6: 1-0-0
Third-up
6: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
6: 0-1-1
Track Flemington
3: 0-0-1
Track Mornington
3: 0-1-1
Track Seymour
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1700m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 2000m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
2: 1-0-0
Going Good
33: 3-5-5
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
11: 1-2-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 44% in Last 100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -50% POT in their L100 Races
Key Jockey
Positive
Dylan Dunn winning at 37% POT in last 100 rides
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 10%
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 1
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Sent out $10 when never got into the race at Wangaratta. Switching to 1750m. Others rate stronger.
ILB
Jumped at $10.00 and below par performance when 7th last time at Wangaratta but gets a favourable alley. Place claims.
RP
Finished seventh, beaten 6l, (Wangaratta) last month upped to 1m2f; unlikely to achieve more than just a supporting role as this could be a hot race.
RSIS
Odds of 9/1 and sub-standard effort when 7th last start at Wangaratta but gets a favourable stall.
Career
16: 1-0-2
Rating · IRD
94
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
2: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
2: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
5: 0-0-0
Going Good
10: 1-0-2
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-0
Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 26% lower than Career Avg.
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 5%
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 121%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 38%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 48% Profit on Turnover
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Void of early speed but he let down strongly Restricted 56 company at Bendigo. Again one for multiples.
ILB
Attacked the line when 3rd beaten by 1 1/4L last time at Bendigo. Definitely worth considering.
RP
Third when 11-4 at Bendigo over 1m (handicap) last month; subpar record of 1-16; others more likely as not in the habit of winning recently.
RSIS
Claimed a spot in the top three when 3rd beaten by 1 1/4L last time at Bendigo. Strong claims.
Career
10: 1-0-1
Rating · IRD
72
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
2: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Mornington
2: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
4: 1-0-1
Track Seymour
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2580m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
6: 1-0-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 26% in Last 100 Rides
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 6%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 23%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 12%
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Out Of Form
Negative
Needs to try and find some form
AAP
Got back, never a serious danger but not disgraced at Moe. Hard to warm to here.
ILB
At $12.00 tailed off to finish 8th last start at Moe. Has not placed in 6 attempts this campaign. In a lot of trouble.
RP
Failed to offer a great deal of encouragement in recent outings; not disgraced when eighth over 1m2f at Moe (handicap) last month; trainer has been going through a quiet spell; others more persuasive with a few rivals in good form.
RSIS
Odds of 11/1 and struggled with the pace when 8th last start at Moe. Struggling recently.