Ararat (VIC) horses tips & previews

15 Nov, 3:48 am AEDT

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Ararat (VIC), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Sun 8 Nov, 11:00 am AEDT

Meetings · Sun, 8 NovArarat (VIC)Change

Race 7 — Programmed Ararat Bowl 1300m · jumps Sun 8 Nov, 4:50 pm AEDT

Race preview

The Programmed Ararat Bowl is a 1300m Open Handicap on GOOD4 ground at Ararat this afternoon at 4:50 pm AEDT. Rue De Royale is the market leader, with Sergeant Major next, followed by Celsius Star and Princess Que. The race shapes as a genuine contest across multiple speed groups — three runners will contest the lead, two others sit onpace, and the remainder are split between midfield and backmarker lanes. Three leaders in Celsius Star, Black Storm, and Stonecoat will battle early while Rue De Royale and Princess Que hunt forward from midfield and onpace respectively.

Rue De Royale rates a real chance at the head of the market. The McEvoy-trained mare carries 56.5kg with Linda Meech and boasts a rating of 100 (IRD). She ran on-pace but faded late at Geelong two starts back when second-up, and the form block shows she can run forward effectively. Celsius Star, at 58kg with Jack Hill aboard for trainer Shawn Mathrick, landed close to the front at Geelong last time and has fresh credentials — first-up records read 7 starts for zero wins, but the latest comment suggests this is an easier assignment than Flemington's Group 3, where she was out-footed. Hill's recent POT sits 23% above market expected, a positive edge. Sergeant Major is a first-up runner after 20 weeks for the Maher yard. The form block notes he tends to race well at first-up without winning; at 54kg with Jabez Johnstone, he shapes as a run-of-the-mill chance here but hasn't done much in stronger races.

Princess Que deserves attention. The Simon Zahra-trained mare sits in barrier one and is an onpace runner with recent form showing a brave effort at Seymour in a busy finish. The stable is performing well, and Zahra-Stanley is a hot J/T combo outperforming market expectations by 57%. Lower down, Miss Mahjong showed the fastest finishing sectionals last start and maps well at this track, outrunning market expectations by 25%. Buzitup also delivered quick finishing numbers last time and has Shayleigh Ingelse aboard — the jockey's recent POT is 75% better than career average.

Race notes

3yo+,HCP,Open
GOOD4
Fine
11 runners

Shortest win price

Sergeant Major (7)

4.20

Most career wins

Celsius Star

10-9-11 from 59 starts

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Backmarker

13Buzitup

Midfield

7Sergeant Major
11Miss Mahjong

Offpace

2Tuff Tu Mus
10Surprise Coming
1Precious Charm

Onpace

5Rue De Royale
8Princess Que

Leader

3Celsius Star
4Black Storm
12Stonecoat

Precious Charm · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Tuff Tu Mus · Negative
Gave ground LS
Faded towards the finish last time out
Celsius Star · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 24% better than Career Avg.
Black Storm · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 64% in Last 100 Rides

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace

1Precious CharmJ: Jett Stanley·T: Symon Wilde1160kg8 9 5 11 1529: 9-1-0$34.00$5.00

Career

29: 9-1-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed80%
Rating60%
Closing Speed60%

Record

First-up
6: 3-0-0
Second-up
4: 2-0-0
Third-up
4: 2-0-0
Fourth-up
4: 1-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 1-0-0
Track Warrnambool
7: 3-1-0
Track Casterton
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2350m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
5: 3-0-0
Going Good
14: 5-0-0
Going Heavy
3: 1-0-0
Going Soft
12: 3-1-0

Last starts

15Flemington1100m31 Oct 2026 · 4yo+ · GOOD411.52L
11Swan Hill1600m7 June 2026 · HCP · SOFT55.8L
5Warrnambool1700m5 May 2026 · 2yo+ · HEAVY82.1L
9Flemington1600m28 Mar 2026 · 3UP HCP · SOFT74.9L
8Flemington1400m7 Mar 2026 · GROUP 3 HCP · GOOD34.7L
7Flemington2000m17 Jan 2026 · 3UP BM100 HCP · GOOD32.6L
1Geelong1700m3 Jan 2026 · 3UP HCP · GOOD3-0.2
5Sandown1600m26 Dec 2025 · LISTED HCP · GOOD42.6L

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 40% POT in L100 Runners
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
2nd Up S/R
Positive
Has won 2 from 4 when second up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature
Weight Rise
Negative
Carrying 4kg more than LS

Comments

AAP

Dropped out to last and never sighted at Flemington off spell. This much easier.

ILB

Backs up quickly. Odds of $201.00 and mediocre display when 15th last start at Flemington but goes down in grade. Hoping that the added weight won't hurt. Watch for a sign in the market.

Towards the rear of 16 at Flemington back down to 5½f last month in a Group 3; a proven winner with a career wins-runs record of 9-29; one to consider now down in grade and should be sharper for her recent return to action.

RSIS

On a short back up. Started 200/1 and clearly outclassed when 15th last start at Flemington but up against a less competitive field. Rising in weight.

2Tuff Tu MusJ: Eoin Walsh·T: Dean Williams959kg12 8 7 7 1216: 7-2-0$34.00$5.50

Career

16: 7-2-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed20%

Record

First-up
4: 1-1-0
Second-up
3: 1-0-0
Third-up
2: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Gold Coast
1: 0-0-0
Track Sunshine Coast
1: 0-1-0
Track Randwick
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1815m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1600m
3: 1-0-0
Going Good
8: 4-2-0
Going Soft
8: 3-0-0

Last starts

12Sandown1600m9 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT76.4L
7Randwick1800m8 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD44.1L
7Caulfield1600m25 July 2026 · BM100 · SOFT65.1L
8Caulfield1400m11 July 2026 · BM100 · SOFT72.7L
12Caulfield1400m27 June 2026 · HCP · SOFT717L
18Gold Coast1400m17 Jan 2026 · 3UP LISTED · GOOD420.9L
9Doomben1350m29 Nov 2025 · LISTED QUALITY · SOFT63.9L
1Eagle Farm1815m2 Aug 2025 · BM90 HCP · GOOD4-0.7

Insights

Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Back in Dist
Negative
Dropping back to a less suitable distance range
Fresh
Positive
Freshened up. Had a break of 42-60 days
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Ex Ben, Will & Jd Hayes in Victoria. Rider found a forward spot at Hillside but he put in a very lacklustre finish over longer assignment. Easier race.

ILB

Odds of $31.00 and gave away some ground when 12th last start at Sandown and dropping in distance. Racing for a new trainer. Appears tested in this event.

Finished towards the rear of 13 over 1m at Sandown (handicap) two months ago; admirable career strike-rate (seven from 16 to date); runs for a new stable here; has strong claims.

RSIS

Started at 30/1 and weakened to finish 12th last time at Sandown and will be down in distance. First start for a new trainer.

3Celsius StarJ: Jack Hill·T: Shawn Mathrick658kg4 4 2 2 1359: 10-9-11$4.60$1.85

Career

59: 10-9-11

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed20%

Record

First-up
7: 0-3-0
Second-up
6: 1-2-0
Third-up
6: 1-0-1
Fourth-up
5: 1-0-0
Track Pakenham
3: 1-1-0
Track Cranbourne
6: 0-2-3
Track Wangaratta
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1217m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1440m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
4: 0-0-1
Going Soft
12: 5-2-1
Going Synthetic
1: 0-1-0

Last starts

13Flemington1200m31 Oct 2026 · GROUP 3 HCP · GOOD46.18L
2Geelong1200m21 Oct 2026 · 3UP BM84 HCP · GOOD40.15L
2Cranbourne1200m9 Oct 2026 · 3UP HCP · GOOD31.5L
4Flemington1200m6 June 2026 · BM84 · HEAVY84.8L
4Caulfield1200m30 May 2026 · BM84 · HEAVY82.2L
4Flemington1200m16 May 2026 · LISTED HCP · GOOD43L
7Bendigo1100m2 May 2026 · BM84 · GOOD34.3L
1Mornington1200m18 Apr 2026 · 3UP BM78 HCP · GOOD4-0.5

Insights

Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 24% better than Career Avg.
Key Rider
Positive
Jack Hill 23% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -39% POT in their L100 Races
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Weight Rise
Negative
Carrying 4kg more than LS

Comments

AAP

Went close at Geelong 21 Oct. Sent forward but flat-footed when things got serious at Flemington. This an easier assignment.

ILB

On a quick back up. Folded up in the straight when 13th last start at Flemington but up against weaker rivals. Has shown early pace in races to date. Can measure up against these.

Finished 13th, beaten a fair way in a Group 3 at Flemington a week ago; he can be competitive at this level; rates a likely contender judged on finishing second two starts back and had excuses last time (hampered).

RSIS

On a short turnaround. Faded to finish 13th last run at Flemington but dropping in class. Will be positive in the run early. Has run into the money reqularly recently. Forward showing expected.

4Black StormJ: Luke Cartwright·T: T Fitzsimmons356.5kg9 2 5 13 427: 6-10-1$8.50$2.70

Career

27: 6-10-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer40%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating80%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
3: 2-1-0
Second-up
2: 0-1-0
Third-up
2: 1-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Swan Hill
2: 0-1-0
Track Tatura
1: 1-0-0
Track Werribee
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1700m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1350m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
21: 4-10-1
Going Soft
6: 2-0-0

Last starts

4Bendigo1400m28 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD42.6L
13Seymour1600m11 Oct 2026 · LISTED · SOFT58.57L
5Caulfield Heath1500m8 Aug 2026 · BM84 · SOFT65.9L
2Mildura1400m17 July 2026 · HCP · GOOD40.4L
9Caulfield1700m27 June 2026 · BM78 · SOFT73.3L
5Swan Hill1600m7 June 2026 · HCP · SOFT51.6L
2Warracknabeal1600m4 Apr 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD30.5L
1Albury1600m19 Mar 2026 · ALBURYMILE BM90 · SOFT7-0.9

Insights

Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 64% in Last 100 Rides
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 7%
Jockey Booking
Positive
Luke Cartwright 56% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 36%
Form 3rd Up
Positive
Has won 1 from 2 when third up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Weight Drop
Positive
Drops 4kg from LS run

Comments

AAP

Led, gave away final stages at Bendigo. Can show early speed.

ILB

Faded away when 4th last run at Bendigo and dropping weight. Should come to hand quickly. Definite contender.

Career record shows his ability to win (wins-runs record of 6-27); creditable effort to finish fourth, beaten 2½l over 7f at Bendigo (handicap) last month.

RSIS

Lost ground when 4th last run at Bendigo and gets some weight relief. Has early pace and positions nicely. Very capable of taking this out.

5Rue De RoyaleJ: Linda Meech·T: T & C Mcevoy856.5kg2 1 6 10 629: 3-8-4$4.40$1.75

Career

29: 3-8-4

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating100%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
6: 0-1-1
Second-up
5: 1-1-0
Third-up
4: 1-1-2
Fourth-up
4: 0-1-1
Track Swan Hill
1: 0-0-0
Track Sandown
1: 0-1-0
Track Flemington
9: 1-3-1
Distance 1100m
4: 0-2-1
Distance 1200m
14: 2-2-1
Distance 1300m
2: 1-1-0
Going Good
24: 3-7-3
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
4: 0-1-1

Last starts

6Geelong1200m21 Oct 2026 · 3UP BM84 HCP · GOOD42.2L
10Flemington1200m3 Oct 2026 · BM78 · HEAVY1012.2L
6Wagga1200m30 Apr 2026 · Open · GOOD44.3L
1Caulfield1200m4 Apr 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD3-0.2
2Flemington1200m28 Feb 2026 · BM78 · GOOD40.5L
2Flemington1200m14 Feb 2026 · BM90 · GOOD40.1L
6Caulfield1100m31 Jan 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD42.5L
3Flemington1200m10 Jan 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD30.8L

Insights

Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 10%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 55%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 63% Profit on Turnover
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

On pace but conceded late at Geelong when second-up. Can go forward.

ILB

Started $7.50 and tailed off to finish 6th last start at Geelong. Expected to rebound and gets a reduction in weight. Shows good early pace. Will be in the finish.

Not far behind Celsius Star when sixth over 6f at Geelong (handicap) two weeks ago.

RSIS

Started 13/2 and didn't threaten when 6th last run at Geelong. Should improve here and goes down in weight. Worth a lot of thought in this race.

6Laa De ShaScratched5––––

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo50%
Early Speed50%
Rating50%
Closing Speed80%

Insights

Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start

Comments

AAP

Made late rally from the back at Geelong off extended spell.

ILB

Racing on a quick back up. Honest race when 2nd last run at Morphettville.

RSIS

Racing on a quick back up. Nice run when 2nd last time at Morphettville.

7Sergeant MajorJ: Jabez Johnstone·T: C Maher454kg9 8 7 6 916: 2-1-2$4.20$1.70

Career

16: 2-1-2

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer40%
Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
Early Speed80%
Rating80%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
5: 0-1-2
Second-up
4: 0-0-0
Third-up
4: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Randwick
6: 1-0-0
Track Caulfield
2: 0-0-1
Track Moonee Valley
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
7: 1-0-2
Distance 1400m
7: 1-0-0
Distance 1800m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
9: 1-0-2
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
6: 1-1-0

Last starts

9Randwick1400m20 June 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT54.3L
6Randwick1400m23 May 2026 · 3yo+ · HEAVY106.9L
7Randwick1200m25 Apr 2026 · 3UP CG&E BM78 HCP · GOOD42.1L
8Eagle Farm1400m8 Nov 2025 · HCP · GOOD34.9L
9Randwick1400m18 Oct 2025 · 3UP BM88 HCP · GOOD43.4L
4Randwick1200m20 Sept 2025 · 3UP BM88 HCP · GOOD41.6L
4Rosehill1200m30 Aug 2025 · 3yo+ · SOFT51.4L
1Randwick1400m12 Apr 2025 · 3yo · GOOD4-0.35

Insights

Trainer SR
Negative
Ciaron Maher striking at just 8%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 32%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 10%
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

First-up (20-weeks). Tends to race well first-up without winning. Didn't make much impact in stronger races last prep.

ILB

First up after a break. Came in 9th last time at Randwick. Giving another go here and goes down in weight. Definite claims.

Recent form nothing to write home about; didn't run too badly when out of the frame at Randwick (beaten just over 4l) over 7f (handicap) in June; returns from a layoff; easy to oppose.

RSIS

First run back. Came in 9th last start at Randwick. Looking past the last run and gets some weight taken off. Commands respect.

8Princess QueJ: Teodore Nugent·T: Simon Zahra154kg2 5 8 8 415: 3-3-1$6.50$2.35

Career

15: 3-3-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
4: 1-1-1
Second-up
3: 1-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-0
Track Bendigo
1: 0-0-1
Track Seymour
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
3: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
11: 3-3-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
5: 1-0-1
Going Good
10: 2-3-0

Last starts

4Seymour1200m11 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT50.87L
8Sandown1200m2 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT56L
8Caulfield1100m15 Aug 2026 · BM74 · SOFT64.1L
5Cranbourne1400m13 Feb 2026 · 3UP BM74 HCP · GOOD31.8L
2Murray Bridge1200m17 Jan 2026 · BM74 · GOOD40.1L
7Moonee Valley1200m24 Oct 2025 · 3UP BM80 HCP · GOOD32.7L
7Flemington1200m4 Oct 2025 · BM78 · GOOD33.7L
2Moonee Valley1200m6 Sept 2025 · 3UP BM84 HCP · GOOD40.8L

Insights

Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 57%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 38% POT in L100 Runners
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 1
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Weight Drop
Positive
Drops 7.5kg from LS run

Comments

AAP

Against own gender when brave effort in busy finish at Seymour. Hass place claims.

ILB

Started $12.00 and peaked on the run when 4th last run at Seymour and gets the perfect draw. Expecting to settle positively. Racing in stronger company. Gets some weight relief. Will find this tough.

A close fourth over 6f at Seymour (handicap) last month.

RSIS

Started 11/1 and overrun in the closing stages of the race when 4th last run at Seymour and drawn by the rails. Should come to hand quickly.

9Fridge MonsterScratched13––––

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo50%
Early Speed50%
Rating40%
Closing Speed40%

Insights

Fresh
Positive
Freshened up. Had a break of 42-60 days

Comments

AAP

LHandily placed and worked home soundly at Cranbourne. That form good for this.

ILB

On a quick turnaround. Started at $8.50 and underperformed when 11th last start at Geelong and challenged by a tougher grade.

RSIS

Backing up quickly for this race. Started 15/2 and disappointing effort when 11th last run at Geelong and competing in a higher grade. Jockey Sheridan Clarke has been successful previously.

10Surprise ComingJ: Zac Spain·T: Hazel Fertier554kg2 10 13 9 636: 5-5-5$17.00$3.80

Career

36: 5-5-5

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed80%
Rating60%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
6: 1-1-1
Second-up
5: 2-1-0
Third-up
4: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
4: 0-0-1
Track Morphettville
19: 2-2-3
Track Donald
1: 0-0-1
Track Murray Bridge
12: 2-2-1
Distance 1620m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1400m
8: 0-2-1
Distance 1500m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
24: 2-2-4
Going Soft
12: 3-3-1

Last starts

6Morphettville1200m24 Oct 2026 · BM84 · SOFT53.12L
9Murray Bridge1200m26 Sept 2026 · BM68 · GOOD43.89L
13Mildura1400m17 July 2026 · HCP · GOOD426.4L
10Morphettville1568m27 June 2026 · BM78 · SOFT67L
2Murray Bridge1400m13 June 2026 · BM76 · SOFT60.4L
2Murray Bridge1200m23 May 2026 · BM82 · SOFT50.2L
2Murray Bridge1000m7 May 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)0.8L
3Morphettville1600m7 Feb 2026 · BM78 · GOOD41.8L

Insights

Jockey Booking
Negative
Zac Spain current POT is 27% below Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 36% in L100 rides
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 10%
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Got back and wasn't totally disgraced at Morphettville. One for exotics.

ILB

Started at $11.00 and not in contention when 6th last time at Morphettville. Some hope in this event.

Not disgraced in sixth at Morphettville over 6f (handicap) last month; has lacked consistency of late; passed over.

RSIS

Started 10/1 and had difficulty when 6th last time at Morphettville.

11Miss MahjongJ: Declan Bates·T: Matthew Cumani1054kg2 1 3 2 224: 5-6-4$10.00$3.00

Career

24: 5-6-4

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
Early Speed20%
Rating40%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
4: 2-0-2
Second-up
3: 0-1-0
Third-up
3: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-1-0
Track Ballarat Synthetic
7: 3-2-1
Track Ballarat
2: 0-0-2
Track Flemington
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1420m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 0-0-1
Going Synthetic
7: 3-2-1
Going Good
11: 1-3-2
Going Soft
6: 1-1-1

Last starts

2Horsham1200m18 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD33L
2Morphettville1250m19 Sept 2026 · BM64 · GOOD41.17L
3Ballarat Synthetic1200m31 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · SYNTHETIC4.3L
1Ballarat Synthetic1200m6 Aug 2026 · 3UP BM70 HCP · SYNTHETIC-0.2
2Ballarat Synthetic1200m14 July 2026 · 2yo+ · SYNTHETIC2L
4Ballarat Synthetic1400m24 June 2026 · BM66 · SYNTHETIC2.9L
10Caulfield Heath1200m20 May 2026 · BM74 · SOFT64.3L
2Seymour1200m26 Apr 2026 · 3UP BM66 HCP · SOFT50.4L

Insights

Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 25%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Consistent
Positive
Showing up at the business end
Weight Drop
Positive
Drops 4.5kg from LS run

Comments

AAP

Racing with some conviction. Reserved at back and gave late chase into second at Horsham. Can win this.

ILB

Zipped home into 2nd last start at Horsham but up in grade. Putting up notable efforts since returning from a spell and gets some weight taken off. Rather have another day.

Has been consistent of late and a proven winner with a career wins-runs record of 5-24; on the premises when runner-up of nine at Horsham over 6f (handicap) last month.

RSIS

Picked up late ground when 2nd last run at Horsham but challenged by more formidable competitors. Showing good ability since returning from a break.

12StonecoatJ: Tom Madden·T: Joanne Mugavin254kg4 5 3 8 832: 6-3-3$34.00$5.50

Career

32: 6-3-3

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed80%
Rating20%
Closing Speed20%

Record

First-up
7: 2-0-2
Second-up
6: 1-0-0
Third-up
6: 2-0-1
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-0
Track Hawkesbury
1: 0-0-1
Track Morphettville
1: 1-0-0
Track Gosford
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1900m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1280m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
14: 1-1-1
Going Heavy
4: 1-1-1
Going Soft
14: 4-1-1

Last starts

8Caulfield Heath1500m8 Aug 2026 · 3UP BM70 HCP · SOFT65.7L
8Sandown1600m22 July 2026 · BM74 · SOFT63.1L
3Sandown1500m8 July 2026 · BM70 · HEAVY82.1L
5Canberra1600m24 Oct 2025 · FED OPEN BM83 · SOFT50.6L
4Kembla Grange1600m27 Sept 2025 · Benchmark 68 · GOOD31.8L
1Canberra1600m19 Sept 2025 · BM75 · SOFT5-1.3
4Canberra1900m22 Aug 2025 · OPEN BM84 · GOOD30.7L
8Randwick1800m13 Aug 2025 · 3yo+ · HEAVY99.9L

Insights

Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 27% POT in L100 Runners
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

First-up (13-weeks). Raced in metro company last prep. Drawn to get an economic trail.

ILB

First up and started off strong but faded towards the end when 3rd beaten by 2L first up last preparation at Sandown. Likely to be well placed early. Tough race, will need luck.

Was held in eighth at Caulfield over 7½f (handicap) three months ago; he can be competitive at this level; could be dangerous if duplicating the form of his most recent win.

RSIS

Resuming and good result placing 3rd beaten by 2L resuming last preparation at Sandown. Should muster plenty of early toe. Has a good draw. Testing ability against stronger contenders.

13BuzitupJ: Shayleigh Ingelse·T: S J Campbell754kg2 1 6 5 113: 3-3-0$20.00$4.00

Career

13: 3-3-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed80%
Rating40%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
5: 2-1-0
Second-up
3: 0-1-0
Third-up
2: 1-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Moe
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
4: 1-0-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
8: 2-1-0
Going Good
5: 2-1-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
7: 1-2-0

Last starts

1Warrnambool1200m15 Oct 2026 · BM62 · GOOD4-0.1
5Ballarat1200m24 May 2026 · 2UP BM62 HCP · GOOD44.4L
6Pakenham1200m15 May 2026 · 2UP BM66 HCP · SOFT52.4L
1Ballarat1200m30 Apr 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD3-1.5
2Stawell1300m5 Apr 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD31.3L
1Terang1206m17 Mar 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT6-1.8
8Ballarat1400m6 Dec 2025 · 3-5yo · SOFT64.6L
2Warrnambool1200m30 Nov 2025 · 3UP MDN-SW · SOFT60.8L

Insights

Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 75% better than Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Positive
Shayleigh Ingelse 109% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot Trainer
Positive
Stewart Campbell in good form, out performing market 104%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 86% POT in L100 Runners
Key Jockey
Positive
Shayleigh Ingelse winning at 77% POT in last 100 rides
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start

Comments

AAP

Drove hard late to nail a narrow win at Warrnambool off spell. Can go on with it.

ILB

Strong effort to the line to win last run at Warrnambool but up against tougher competition. Likely to get back in the run. Displaying improvement over the past few runs. Hard to recommend.

Record shows he knows where the winning post is (wins-runs career record of 3-13); narrow winner of a handicap (Warrnambool) last month; despite that Warrnambool success, hard enough to fancy.

RSIS

Ran over the top of them when winning last run at Warrnambool and showing improvement in recent outings. Likely to settle back in the field. Up in grade.

Odds correct as at Sun 8 Nov, 4:50 pm AEDT. Odds can change.