Ararat (VIC) horses tips & previews

15 Nov, 3:25 am AEDT

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Ararat (VIC), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Sun 8 Nov, 11:00 am AEDT

Meetings · Sun, 8 NovArarat (VIC)Change

Race 2 — Gorst Rural Mdn Plate 1300m · jumps Sun 8 Nov, 2:00 pm AEDT

Race preview

Ararat's Gorst Rural Maiden Plate runs at 2:00 pm AEDT over 1300 metres on a SOFT5 track. Daniel Boone heads the market, followed by Model Gigi and Fire Type. This is a three-year-old and older maiden field where the form clock and jockey angles jump off the page. Daniel Boone's recent form and the hot jockey-trainer combo backing him make noise — Teodore Nugent and Simon Zahra are outperforming market expectations by 57 per cent. Fire Type rates a real chance at this distance on the fresh-up angle; the form comment reads solid for a resumption, and Jack Hill is 22 per cent above expected in his last 100 rides. Incoherent has drawn barrier 10 and carries a winkers-on gear change that could unlock something here.

Daniel Boone brings a second at Coleraine over this exact 1300 metres on SOFT5, beaten just a length in maiden-heavy company. Resuming after 16 weeks, that Coleraine run was solid ground for belief. The combo of Nugent and Zahra is the standout angle: they're running at 29 per cent in the stable's last 100 runners, and together they sit 57 per cent ahead of market expectation. Fire Type, who rates a real chance, is dropping back from 1700 metres at Warrnambool where fresh-up form wasn't beaten far in maiden company. The form comment flags capable of making an impact fresh. Jack Hill's ride comes at 122 per cent of expected volume, and his recent POT sits 24 per cent better than career average. Both carry real prospects through the rating lens.

Model Gigi looks to set early tempo from barrier 7 as the leader in this race. Speed-side runners bunch on pace: Daniel Boone, Fire Type, Dimachaerus, and Incoherent all sit in the Onpace group. Incoherent's form runs through two starts; a second at Kyneton over 1203 metres on SOFT5 is the sharper form line. The winkers addition and the stable's 26 per cent POT in their last 100 runners point to an angle worth following. That said, Luke Cartwright's 62 per cent outperformance above career average on Dimachaerus is solid jockey form, though Timothy Fitzsimmons' training strike sits at just 7 per cent.

Race notes

3yo+,MDN-SW,Maiden
GOOD4
Fine
10 runners

Shortest win price

Daniel Boone (3)

3.80

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Backmarker

9Minty

Midfield

6Typhoon Bassett

Offpace

1Classical Power

Onpace

5Fire Type
3Daniel Boone
4Dimachaerus
8Incoherent

Firststart

7Poetic Passage
11Mystery Pearl

Leader

10Model Gigi

Classical Power · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 26% better than Career Avg.
Daniel Boone · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are out performing market expectations by 57%
Dimachaerus · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 64% in Last 100 Rides
Fire Type · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 24% better than Career Avg.

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace

1Classical PowerJ: Jack Martin·T: Patrick Payne959.5kg10 9 12 5 24: 0-0-0$26.00$4.20

Career

4: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Queanbeyan
1: 0-0-0
Track Newcastle
2: 0-0-0
Track Hawkesbury
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

2Colac1200m22 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)2L
5Queanbeyan2000m10 Jan 2026 · CL1-SW · GOOD33.7L
12Newcastle2100m26 Dec 2025 · 3UP CL1 MDN-SW · GOOD417.1L
9Hawkesbury1600m7 Dec 2025 · MDN-SW · GOOD49.3L
10Newcastle1400m20 Nov 2025 · MID MDN · SOFT56.1L
6Kembla Grange1150m5 Nov 2025 · Barrier Trial4.2L
8Randwick742m20 Oct 2025 · Barrier Trial3.9L
8Randwick1050m13 June 2025 · Barrier Trial7.6L

Insights

Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 26% better than Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Positive
Jack Martin 33% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -42% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 17% POT in L100 Runners
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Ready To Strike
Positive
Can be rewarded for recent consistent form
Long Break
Negative
Resumes from a 302 day break (> 300 days)
Winkers Off
Positive
Winkers coming off this start

Comments

AAP

Fronting up for second campaign (43-weeks). Ex John Thompson in NSW. Has struggled to make an impression. Can't enthuse.

ILB

Resumes from a spell of 43 weeks. At $11.00 folded up in the straight when 5th last run at Queanbeyan and dropping back to a shorter trip. Looks to be in trouble.

Not disgraced when fifth of seven at Queanbeyan in January in a conditions race; first run for stable; layoff to overcome; others more appealing.

RSIS

Fresh after a 43 week break. Started at 10/1 and couldn't stay in touch when 5th last start at Queanbeyan and dropping in distance. Change in trainer.

2Community GazScratched9––––

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey50%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo50%
Early Speed50%
Rating50%
Closing Speed80%

Comments

AAP

Shown little to date. Never a threat after showing no early speed from the barriers at Wodonga second-up. Hard to warm to.

ILB

On a short turnaround. Basic showing when 10th last run at Cranbourne.

RSIS

On a quick turnaround. Basic showing when 10th last time at Cranbourne.

3Daniel BooneJ: Teodore Nugent·T: Simon Zahra559.5kg5 6 11 7 211: 0-1-0$3.80$1.50

Career

11: 0-1-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
3: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Swan Hill
1: 0-0-0
Track Werribee
2: 0-0-0
Track Terang
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1406m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
8: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-1-0

Last starts

2Coleraine1300m19 July 2026 · MDN-HWGT · SOFT51L
7Terang1406m17 Mar 2026 · MDN-SW · SOFT68.7L
11Seymour1300m20 Feb 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD46.1L
6Sale1200m1 Feb 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD45.1L
5Werribee1114m12 Jan 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD32.4L
5Seymour1000m28 Dec 2025 · 3yo+ · GOOD44.2L
10Werribee1100m7 Dec 2025 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD45.2L
7Swan Hill1600m8 June 2025 · 2&3Y MDN-SW · SOFT76.7L

Insights

Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 57%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 38% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 10%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Resuming (16-weeks). Last run was solid and gives some hope.

ILB

Resumes from a break. Zipped home into 2nd beaten by 1L last start at Coleraine. Not interested today.

Good effort when 1l runner-up at Coleraine four months ago; improved form the last twice but winless with run of consecutive defeats standing at 11.

RSIS

Resuming after a break. Managed to run into 2nd beaten by 1L last time at Coleraine.

4DimachaerusJ: Luke Cartwright·T: T Fitzsimmons659.5kg2 4 6 5 106: 0-1-0$34.00$4.80

Career

6: 0-1-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer40%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed20%
Rating60%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Donald
1: 0-0-0
Track Bendigo
1: 0-0-0
Track Avoca
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
5: 0-1-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

10Avoca1300m17 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD313.35L
5Bendigo1000m20 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD37.95L
6Echuca1200m11 May 2026 · 2yo+ · SOFT53.4L
4Donald1200m14 Apr 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD43.5L
2Avoca1100m29 Mar 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD31.3L
8Echuca1200m8 Mar 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · GOOD45.2L

Insights

Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 64% in Last 100 Rides
Trainer SR
Negative
Timothy Fitzsimmons striking at just 7%
Jockey Booking
Positive
Luke Cartwright 56% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 36%
Key Jockey
Positive
Luke Cartwright winning at 44% POT in last 100 rides
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Winkers Off
Positive
Winkers coming off this start

Comments

AAP

Well back and never sighted at Avoca when second-up when drifting in the betting. Untried in the wet. Only for exotics.

ILB

Odds of $15.00 and didn't threaten when 10th last start at Avoca. Interesting gear change of winkers off first time. Prefer in something a lot easier.

Winless in six starts but has shown promise with second his top showing; finished last of ten 22 days ago at Avoca upped to this distance; others appeal more.

RSIS

Odds of 14/1 and was well beaten when 10th last time at Avoca. Interesting gear change of cheekpieces off first time.

5Fire TypeJ: Jack Hill·T: Symon Wilde459.5kg3 2 3 6 48: 0-1-3$5.00$1.85

Career

8: 0-1-3

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating80%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-0
Track Warrnambool
2: 0-0-0
Track Ararat
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1606m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1700m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1850m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
4: 0-1-1
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-1
Going Soft
2: 0-0-1

Last starts

4Colac1000m22 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)4.2L
6Warrnambool1700m6 May 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · HEAVY103.7L
3Terang1850m12 Apr 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · HEAVY101.3L
2Ararat1606m30 Mar 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD31.3L
3Colac1600m1 Mar 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT71.8L
5Pakenham1600m12 Feb 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD44.8L
3Geelong1440m26 Jan 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD43.3L
4Warrnambool1200m11 Jan 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · GOOD31.7L

Insights

Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 24% better than Career Avg.
Key Rider
Positive
Jack Hill 23% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot Trainer
Positive
Symon Wilde in good form, out performing market 60%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 40% POT in L100 Runners
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Ready To Strike
Positive
Can be rewarded for recent consistent form
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Resuming (26-weeks). Not beaten far Maiden company at Warrnambool first-up last preparation. Capable of making an impact fresh in this affair.

ILB

Back after a 26 week spell. Odds of $4.40 and ran 6th last run at Warrnambool and dropping in distance. Should muster plenty of early speed. Expect a forward showing.

Finished sixth but wasn't beaten too far (just under 4l) over 1m½f at Warrnambool (maiden) in May; has shown some recent improvement but yet to open his account after eight starts; returns from a layoff; may have to settle for supporting role.

RSIS

Resuming after a 26 week break. Started at 10/3 and ran 6th last start at Warrnambool and down in trip. Should jump out and bowl along. Looks a nice proposition.

6Typhoon BassettJ: Jett Stanley·T: Sara Ryan159.5kg9 4 2 6 82: 0-0-0$21.00$3.90

Career

2: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed20%
Rating60%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Scone
1: 0-0-0
Track Newcastle
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0

Last starts

8Newcastle1600m14 Feb 2026 · Maiden · GOOD48.7L
6Scone1400m29 Jan 2026 · MDN · GOOD43.7L
2Tamworth950m8 Jan 2026 · Barrier Trial0.6L
4Gosford800m9 Dec 2025 · Barrier Trial4.6L
9Warwick Farm786m4 Sept 2025 · Barrier Trial79.7L

Insights

Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 4%
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 76%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 52%
Well beaten LS
Negative
Not competitive last run
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Back for second campaign (38-weeks). Ex Annabel & Rob Archibald in NSW. Hard to warm to.

ILB

First up after a break of 38 weeks. Jumped at $41.00 and was nothing special when 8th last time at Newcastle but has minimal work to do from the draw. Few more classier types in this race.

Out of the frame when eighth over 1m at Newcastle (handicap) in February; first start for new trainer; returning from a layoff here; may have to settle for supporting role.

RSIS

First run back after a break of 38 weeks. Odds of 40/1 and was nothing special when 8th last run at Newcastle. Interesting gear change of blinkers off first time.

7Poetic PassageJ: Linda Meech·T: T Busuttin & N Young258kg–$12.00$3.30

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
Early Speed50%
Rating80%
Closing Speed50%

Insights

Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 6%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 50%
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 2
On Debut
Positive
First race start
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note

Comments

AAP

$150k purchase. Out of a stakes-placed mare who won three races. Xtravagant gelding heading to the races off solid jumpout form. Good draw.

ILB

Trent Busuttin And Natalie Young trained 3yo by Xtravagant on debut and has a good draw. Interesting gear change of blinkers on first time. Betting as a guide.

Gelded already; trainer more than capable of getting one ready first time out; first public outing; should figure as some good aspects to his profile.

RSIS

Initial appearance 3yo by Xtravagant for trainer Trent Busuttin And Natalie Young and has a good draw. Interesting to see the blinkers go on for the first time. Respect the betting.

8IncoherentJ: Eoin Walsh·T: Ben, Will & Jd Hayes1057.5kg2 72: 0-1-0$6.00$2.15

Career

2: 0-1-0

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating100%
Closing Speed60%

Record

First-up
1: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Sale
1: 0-0-0
Track Kyneton
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1203m
1: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-1-0

Last starts

7Sale1200m25 Oct 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · HEAVY105.6L
2Kyneton1203m8 Oct 2026 · 3UP F&M MDN-SW · SOFT54.75L

Insights

Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 23% POT in L100 Runners
Winkers On
Positive
Important gear change of winkers on
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Sent out $12 when unable to threaten on a soft deck at Sale at her second race start. All the better, outside place prospect at best.

ILB

Started $12.00 and finished 7th last start at Sale. Has the potential to improve sharply. Winkers go on for the first time. Definite claims for punters.

Was seventh of 12, beaten 6l, over 6f at Sale (maiden) last month.

RSIS

Started 11/1 and finished 7th last time at Sale. Happy to forgive that run. Cheekpieces go on for the first time. Will go close.

9MintyJ: Neil Farley·T: Patrick Payne856kg3 8 71: 0-0-0$71.00$8.50

Career

1: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
Early Speed20%
Rating60%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Manangatang
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1175m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

7Colac800m22 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)7.2L
8Manangatang1175m10 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD310.3L
3Tatura1100m30 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)5.1L

Insights

Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 19% in Last 100 Rides
Key Rider
Positive
Neil Farley 24% above market expected in L100 Rides
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 17% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 25%
Gap In Runs
Negative
Not raced for 29 days
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

A very soft debut performance at Manangatang 10 Oct. Since trialled at Colac 22 Oct. Will need to find plenty.

ILB

At $6.00 disappointing effort when 8th last time at Manangatang but having second race start. Ran 7th in a trial at Bet365 Colac on Oct 22nd. Likely to get back. Watching with interest.

Held on her debut over 6f at Manangatang at 5-1 last month; must now step up.

RSIS

At 5/1 underperformed when 8th last time at Manangatang but having second race start. Ran 7th in a trial at Bet365 Colac on Oct 22nd.

10Model GigiJ: Zac Spain·T: John Mcardle756kg6 2 5 54: 0-1-0$4.20$1.65

Career

4: 0-1-0

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating100%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Track Mornington
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1000m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-1-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

5Mornington1200m22 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD35L
5Pakenham Synthetic1000m2 Oct 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · SYNTHETIC3.1L
2Pakenham1100m15 May 2026 · 2UP MDN-SW · SOFT50.4L
6Pakenham1000m23 Apr 2026 · 2Y MDN SW · GOOD43.3L

Insights

Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 27% lower than Career Avg.
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 36% in L100 rides
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Set tempo, offered little resistance when challenged at Mornington second-up. Has early speed. Should relish the rise in distance.

ILB

Started at $14.00 and came in 5th last start at Mornington. Should improve from the last run. Has good tactical speed and will be nicely positioned. Solid chance.

Not beaten too far when fifth of nine over 6f at Mornington (maiden) two weeks ago; has shown some ability on occasion and needs to be respected.

RSIS

Odds of 13/1 and finished 5th last run at Mornington. Expecting improvement. Should race on the pace. Good chance in this.

11Mystery PearlJ: Dean Yendall·T: Mitchell Freedman356kg–$5.50$2.00

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed50%
Rating80%
Closing Speed50%

Insights

Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 28% better than Career Avg.
First Starter
Positive
Not raced previously

Comments

AAP

$90k purchase. Unraced 3yo by Bivouac and out of the Testa Rossa mare Pindan Pearl. Drawn well and has plenty of jumpout experience.

ILB

3yo by Bivouac on debut for Mitchell Freedman. Watch betting.

From the same family as Concentric, a winner over 1m; stable can ready a newcomer; she's worth a go.

RSIS

Mitchell Freedman 3yo debutant by Bivouac. Watch betting.

Odds correct as at Sun 8 Nov, 2:00 pm AEDT. Odds can change.