Shortest win price
Sandfire Rose (3)
3.80
The Emu Export at Albany is a benchmark 58+ handicap over 1500 metres on a Good 4 track in overcast conditions, jumping at 6:41 pm AEDT. Polyvanova leads the market, with Sir Bear A Lot and Sandfire Rose the next shortest odds. Show On The Road completes the first wave. The field has two early leaders in Polyvanova and Looks, an on-pace runner in Show On The Road, two offmidfield types in Deadly And Fast and Sir Bear A Lot, with Sandfire Rose sitting offpace and a pair of backmarkers to chase home.
Polyvanova sits shortest and rates a real chance on the numbers. The Mitchell Pateman stable is outperforming the market by 74 per cent and holding a 40 per cent strike rate in the last 100 runners. From barrier 3, Polyvanova gets a decent gate and the form stacks up at this track and distance. A recent second at Bunbury over 1400 metres on Good 4 shows the engine is sound, though a fade at Belmont last start cost placement. Sir Bear A Lot is jumping off the page as a live alternative. The Samantha Faithfull runner rates freshly for the job after 27 weeks out, and two of his wins have come at this exact 1500-metre trip. He's tracked as first-up and can slot into placings at this level with jockey Natasha Faithfull running 26 per cent above market in her last 100 rides.
Sandfire Rose commands attention from barrier 2 after a winning performance at Kalgoorlie over 1400 metres. The Robert Gulberti-trained mare has dropped back to suitable class and draws well. Recent form reads 5-1-1 across the past three starts, a strong indicator. Show On The Road breaks from barrier 1 with a 27-day freshen and carry less weight than last time out. The Ryan Hill runner was on pace but knocked up badly at Bunbury, though the let-up and low barrier could see a vastly improved showing. Deadly And Fast can't be ignored either—Tara Atherden is running 24 per cent above market expected in her last 100 rides, and the stable is rolling at 19 per cent return on turnover.
Shortest win price
Sandfire Rose (3)
3.80
Most career wins
Deadly And Fast
7-5-10 from 50 starts
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offmidfield
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Deadly And Fast · Positive
Key Rider
Tara Atherden 24% above market expected in L100 Rides
Sandfire Rose · Negative
Slow Early LS
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Polyvanova · Positive
Stable In Form
Stable going well. Out performing market by 74%
Looks · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 54% better than Career Avg.
Career
50: 7-5-10
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
6: 0-0-1
Second-up
4: 1-0-2
Third-up
4: 1-1-0
Fourth-up
4: 0-1-2
Track Belmont
1: 0-0-0
Track Ascot
3: 0-0-0
Track Albany
37: 6-5-8
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
34: 4-2-8
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
15: 3-3-2
Key Rider
Positive
Tara Atherden 24% above market expected in L100 Rides
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 19% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 14%
Well beaten LS
Negative
Not competitive last run
Awkward Draw
Negative
May find this draw awkward
Increased Dist
Positive
Distance rise from last start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Never in the call this track after lengthy absence. Fitter and second-up form generally better. Has some claims.
ILB
Subpar when 7th last run around here. May see an upturn in form and competing in a less challenging grade. Expected to be flashing home. Stepping back up in trip. Will run close.
RP
Beaten 8l (seventh) over 5f here (handicap) two weeks ago; knows how to win here; should be involved.
RSIS
Clearly outclassed when 7th last run at the track. Likely to bounce back and taking on a lower class of opponents. Will be hitting the line strongly. Stamps its reason for consideration.
Career
46: 5-5-9
Rating · IRD
86
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
6: 0-1-2
Second-up
5: 1-0-0
Third-up
5: 0-1-1
Fourth-up
5: 1-0-1
Track Belmont
12: 0-0-3
Track Northam
1: 0-0-0
Track Pinjarra
2: 0-0-2
Distance 1800m
6: 0-1-3
Distance 2100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
10: 1-2-2
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
9: 1-1-2
Going Good
36: 4-4-7
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 3%
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 39%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 53% Profit on Turnover
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 12%
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 1
AAP
4 weeks since last run. Ex B A Miller. Trained here now. Trimmed margin late at Ascot. One for exotics.
ILB
Started at $11.00 and came in 7th last run at Ascot but gets a favourable draw. First start for a new trainer. Might have to make up considerable ground.
RP
Not disgraced when seventh of 14 over 1m at Ascot (handicap) last month; starts out for new stable; in with a shout as shown some signs of promise.
RSIS
At 10/1 came in 7th last start at Ascot but drawn nicely. Racing for a new trainer. Will be giving the leaders a big start.
Career
28: 5-2-3
Rating · IRD
86
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
6: 0-0-1
Second-up
5: 0-1-2
Third-up
5: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
4: 0-1-0
Track Belmont
5: 1-0-0
Track Kalgoorlie
1: 1-0-0
Track Northam
3: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
4: 0-0-1
Distance 1412m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1613m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
9: 1-0-1
Going Good
18: 3-2-2
Going Heavy
1: 1-0-0
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Run down in the shadows at Ascot. Good draw. Right in the mix.
ILB
Was $6.00 and tailed off to finish 5th last start at Ascot. The large claim from Jason Li helps. Represents value in this race.
RP
This is her grade; solid effort at Ascot over 1m (handicap) last month; can be in the thick of things as has wins in the formbook.
RSIS
Started at 5/1 and didn't threaten when 5th last run at Ascot. The large claim from Jason Li helps. Has some claims.
Career
34: 3-9-5
Rating · IRD
88
Speed map
Leader
First-up
4: 1-1-0
Second-up
3: 0-0-0
Third-up
3: 0-1-1
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-1
Track Kalgoorlie
1: 0-0-1
Track Pinjarra
4: 0-2-1
Track Ascot
3: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1230m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
4: 0-2-0
Going Good
29: 3-8-4
Going Soft
5: 0-1-1
Stable In Form
Positive
Stable going well. Out performing market by 74%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 40% POT in L100 Runners
Ideal Map
Positive
Map position exceeding market by 4%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Form At Track
Negative
Yet to win here
Improver
Positive
Poised to improve on recent form here
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Got the wobbles and faded out of the placings at Belmont Park. Decent alley. Form sound at this course and journey. Warrants attention.
ILB
Started $10.00 and was well beaten when 8th last run at Belmont. Has plenty of early speed. Giaan Odonnell takes a large claim. Good enough chance at a very tempting price.
RP
Not disgraced when eighth over 7f at Belmont Park (handicap) last month; has recently run well at this venue but patchy form recently; trainer going well a plus; makes limited appeal.
RSIS
Odds of 9/1 and tailed off to finish 8th last time at Belmont. Has shown early pace in races to date. Large claim helps. Has definite claims.
Career
53: 5-8-5
Rating · IRD
84
Speed map
Leader
First-up
5: 1-0-1
Second-up
4: 0-1-1
Third-up
4: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
4: 1-2-0
Track Albany
15: 3-4-3
Track CurrentTrack
15: 3-4-3
Track Bunbury
11: 0-3-2
Distance 1600m
4: 0-0-0
Distance 1650m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
32: 3-5-3
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
19: 2-3-2
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 54% better than Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Positive
Zephen Johnston-Porter 44% above market expected in L100 Rides
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 36%
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Winless Prep
Negative
Expect the drought to continue
AAP
Relinquished lead but did enough to place in the 3yo+ (Bm58+) this venue. Draw is problematic. Very fit, can play a role with even breaks.
ILB
Was outmatched at the end of the race when 3rd beaten by 2 3/4L last start around here. Expecting to settle positively. Keep safe.
RP
Season-ticket holder here with three wins; not beaten far when third two weeks ago.
RSIS
Grabbed towards the finish when 3rd beaten by 2 3/4L last run at this track. Should muster plenty of early pace.
Career
43: 2-1-5
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
5: 0-0-1
Second-up
4: 0-1-0
Third-up
4: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-0
Track Ascot
1: 0-0-0
Track Bunbury
1: 0-0-0
Track Mount Barker
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
12: 1-0-2
Distance 1614m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1690m
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 1-0-0
Going Soft
13: 1-0-1
Going Good
29: 0-1-4
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 85% in Last 100 Rides
Key Rider
Positive
Lisa Staples 88% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Key Jockey
Positive
Lisa Staples winning at 69% POT in last 100 rides
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 5%
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Awkward Draw
Negative
May find this draw awkward
AAP
Resuming (26-weeks). Solid form at this level last campaign. Generally needs the run. Fitness could tell.
ILB
Back from a spell of 26 weeks. Rounded them up when winning last time at this venue. Might be ridden for luck. This one has a big task.
RP
Successful by 2½l upped to this trip in May; layoff to overcome; others are preferred despite that win at Albany.
RSIS
Back from a 26 week break. Finished well when winning last time at the track on a heavy track. Might have to make up considerable ground.
Career
10: 1-2-3
Rating · IRD
84
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
3: 0-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-1-1
Third-up
2: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Belmont
1: 0-0-0
Track Northam
3: 0-0-2
Track Pinjarra
3: 0-2-1
Distance 1300m
2: 0-1-1
Distance 1400m
3: 0-0-2
Distance 1600m
2: 1-1-0
Going Good
9: 1-2-3
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 53% lower than Career Avg.
Trainer SR
Negative
Ryan Hill striking at just 7%
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are under performing market expectations by -47%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 31%
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 62% in L100 rides
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
AAP
Let-up (46-days). On pace but soon under pressure and he knocked up badly at Bunbury. Breaks from a low barrier and under less weight. Right in this.
ILB
Let up. Started $18.00 and didn't find the line when 10th last run at Bunbury but has a good draw. Will be positive in the run early. Can't leave out of your calculations.
RP
Finished tenth of 12 at Bunbury over 1m½f (handicap) 46 days ago; others more persuasive.
RSIS
Let up. At 17/1 looked outclassed when 10th last start at Bunbury but will try to take advantage of the draw. Won't be far away during the run.
Career
24: 3-2-1
Rating · IRD
88
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
5: 2-0-0
Second-up
4: 1-0-0
Third-up
4: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-0
Track Albany
14: 2-2-1
Track CurrentTrack
14: 2-2-1
Track Bunbury
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1675m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1800m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1920m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
19: 3-1-1
Going Soft
5: 0-1-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 5%
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
AAP
First-up (28-weeks). Can pull out a run fresh. Tested against better opposition last prep. Worth a look fresh in this company.
ILB
First up and ran home strongly to win first up last preparation at the track. Always seems to find the line well. Definite claims for punters.
RP
Tenth of 12 in April; suited by this C&D; returns from a break here; capable of going well as has bits and pieces of decent form and she goes well fresh.
RSIS
Resuming and bold effort when winning resuming last preparation at this track. Should get going late. Can go close.
Career
30: 3-6-5
Rating · IRD
80
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
5: 0-1-1
Second-up
4: 1-2-1
Third-up
4: 1-1-0
Fourth-up
4: 1-1-0
Track Albany
26: 3-6-5
Track CurrentTrack
26: 3-6-5
Track Bunbury
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1230m
3: 0-2-0
Distance 1600m
9: 1-3-1
Going Good
16: 2-5-2
Going Soft
14: 1-1-3
Key Rider
Positive
Natasha Faithfull 26% above market expected in L100 Rides
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 5%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start
AAP
First-up (27-weeks). Two of his wins were this distance. Could get into the placings fresh in this company.
ILB
Back from a 27 week break. Was $6.50 and weakened under pressure when 8th last start at this track. Interesting to see the blinkers go off for the first time. Place claims at best.
RP
Not beaten too far when eighth here when close behind Looks over 1m (handicap) six months ago; knows how to win here; has had some time off; passed over.
RSIS
Resuming after a break of 27 weeks. Started 11/2 and didn't attack the line when 8th last run at this venue. Good to see Natasha Faithfull is jumping on.