Shortest win price
Burning Ambition (5)
2.65
Welcome to Quirindi for the New South Wales Jockeys Association Handicap, a class two contest over 1200 metres on a good three track with fine weather overhead. Looking at the early win market order, Burning Ambition leads the way as the shortest runner, followed closely by Broken Wings, Ritzsun, and Mega Pixel rounding out the top four in the betting.
Digging into the form behind those shorter prices, Burning Ambition is shooting for a hat-trick after a strong win at Moree when second-up where the runner overhauled them from midfield. Broken Wings brings a handy second at Newcastle last time out over this journey where the runner led from pillar to near the post, plus a previous win at this exact track which suggests a big show here. Mega Pixel also rates a real chance as a pace influence coming off a solid run at Dubbo with a claiming apprentice engaged again.
Further down the speed maps and insights, Mega Pixel maps as the leader while Audit handles an off-pace role and Burning Ambition works from the off-midfield section. Ring My Bell is another worth keeping an eye on with a key rider in Billy Cray who sits well above market expectations in recent rides. It shapes up as a competitive race where the stats point to a few live chances fighting out the finish.
Shortest win price
Burning Ambition (5)
2.65
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offmidfield
Midfield
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Audit · Positive
Profitable Trainer
Stable runners going at 19% POT in L100 Runners
Ritzsun · Negative
Jockey Booking
Jasmine Urquhart-Warren current POT is 6% below Career Avg.
Mega Pixel · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 15% in Last 100 Rides
Burning Ambition · Positive
Fast Finisher
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Career
6: 1-0-0
Rating · IRD
79
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
2: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Wyong
1: 1-0-0
Track Randwick
2: 0-0-0
Track Kembla Grange
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 1-0-0
Going Good
5: 1-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 19% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 18%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Fresh
Positive
Freshened up. Had a break of 42-60 days
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Let-up (47-days). Ex L J Bridge in NSW. Unable to make an impression at Kembla Grange. Blinkers and tongue tie on. Could find a few lengths at this level.
ILB
Back from a let up. Started at $71.00 and didn't threaten when 6th last start at Kembla Grange. Coming to a new trainer. Prefer others.
RP
Last of six over 7f at Kembla Grange (handicap) 47 days ago; representing new trainer today; strong contender given there's a paucity of good recent form on offer in this contest and has proved he knows how to win.
RSIS
Back from a let up. At 70/1 weakened to finish 6th last start at Kembla Grange. Change in trainer.
Career
15: 2-3-2
Rating · IRD
96
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
3: 1-1-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-1
Track Gosford
2: 0-1-0
Track Mudgee
1: 0-1-0
Track Armidale
1: 0-0-0
Distance 900m
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1000m
4: 0-1-1
Distance 1100m
6: 1-0-1
Going Good
8: 1-2-0
Going Heavy
2: 1-0-1
Going Soft
5: 0-1-1
Jockey Booking
Negative
Jasmine Urquhart-Warren current POT is 6% below Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 19% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 14%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Awkward Draw
Negative
Would have liked a better draw
AAP
Resuming (26-weeks). Last win was 30 Aug 2024. Has an adverse draw and rising in weight for return but could sneak into the placings.
ILB
Back from a 26 week spell. Gave away some ground when 10th last start at Gosford. Has the ability to turn things around and competing in a less challenging grade. Will go close today.
RP
A while since his last success; tenth of 12 at Gosford over 5f (handicap) six months ago; returns from an absence here; probably unlikely to trouble the principals.
RSIS
Resuming after a 26 week break. Looked outclassed when 10th last time at Gosford. Expected to rebound and will find this grade more suitable. Winning chance.
Rating · IRD
91
Speed map
Offpace
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -28% POT in their L100 Races
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 2
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Came from the clouds to score with authority at Dubbo. Skips a grade but can challenge again.
ILB
Ran on hard when winning last time at Dubbo and can find a nice position from the draw.
RSIS
Stormed home to win last time at Dubbo and has a good draw.
Career
16: 2-4-3
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Scone
3: 0-0-1
Track Tamworth
1: 0-0-0
Track Warren
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1300m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
3: 0-2-1
Distance 1100m
2: 1-0-0
Going Good
8: 1-2-2
Going Heavy
2: 1-0-0
Going Soft
4: 0-0-1
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 15% in Last 100 Rides
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 9%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -25% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 25%
Hot Jockey
Positive
Gabrielle Johnston in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 27%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Awkward Draw
Negative
Would have liked a better draw
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
AAP
On pace, not beaten far at Dubbo following market easing. Pace influence. Claiming apprentice engaged again. Big show.
ILB
Odds of $8.00 and finished 7th last start at Dubbo. Giving another chance here and dropping weight. Will be positive in the run early. Will be fighting out the finish.
RP
Consistent performer; not disgraced when seventh over 6½f at Dubbo (handicap) last month.
RSIS
Odds of 7/1 and came in 7th last run at Dubbo. Is capable of a resurgence and gets a reduction in weight. Should jump out and bowl along. Tough competitor.
Career
15: 2-3-0
Rating · IRD
84
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
4: 1-0-0
Second-up
3: 1-1-0
Third-up
2: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-1-0
Track Quirindi
1: 0-0-0
Track Moree
2: 1-1-0
Track Sapphire Coast
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1500m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
11: 0-3-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 2-0-0
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 18%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Consecutive Wins
Positive
Has strung together a few races in a row
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Good Form
Positive
Very competitive in recent runs
AAP
Shooting for hat-trick. Midfield, overhauled them for a strong win at Moree when second-up. All the better, looks a serious player.
ILB
Ran over the top of them when winning last start at Moree. Very tidy this campaign winning 2 from as many starts. Likely to get back in the field. Not at all out of this race.
RP
Bidding for a hat-trick and appears to be on the upgrade judged on two most recent runs; got home in front by half a length over 6½f at Moree (handicap) last month; hard enough to fancy despite that win at Moree.
RSIS
Charged home to win last start at Moree. Has hit top form of late with 2 wins from as many runs. Will be giving the leaders a big start.
Career
9: 2-1-0
Rating · IRD
88
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Ipswich
2: 0-0-0
Track Murwillumbah
1: 1-0-0
Track Grafton
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1590m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1700m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1350m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
4: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
3: 1-0-0
Going Soft
2: 1-0-0
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 4%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 53%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
First-up (16-weeks). Ex M J Dunn in NSW. Often around the mark fresh while having an easy trial in readiness. Watch betting.
ILB
First up from a spell. At $13.00 couldn't stay in touch when 11th last run at Grafton and will be dropping in distance. First race for a new trainer. Betting is the best guide.
RP
Finished last of 11 over 1m½f at Grafton (handicap) in July; representing new trainer today; must be respected if reproducing form of his win three starts back.
RSIS
Had a break from racing and returns to competition. Started at 12/1 and didn't threaten when 11th last start at Grafton and down in trip. Gets some weight taken off. Respect the betting.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Leader
Jockey Booking
Negative
Jack Baker current POT is 9% below Career Avg.
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Honest
Positive
Finishing in the money lately
AAP
A win looks close. Forwardly placed, continued to stick on at Muswellbrook. On pacer, perfect gate. This looks very achievable.
ILB
Competitive effort when 2nd last run at Muswellbrook. Has run into the money 4 from 4 attempts this preparation.
RSIS
Honest race when 2nd last run at Muswellbrook. Has not missed the placings lately in 4 attempts.
Career
19: 2-3-5
Rating · IRD
94
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
4: 1-1-1
Second-up
3: 0-0-2
Third-up
2: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
2: 0-1-0
Track Tamworth
2: 0-0-1
Track Quirindi
1: 1-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 1-0-0
Distance 900m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
8: 1-1-2
Distance 1005m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
11: 2-1-2
Going Heavy
2: 0-1-1
Going Soft
6: 0-1-2
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Stable In Form
Positive
Stable going well. Out performing market by 41%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 21% POT in L100 Runners
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Improved L/S
Positive
Improved again last start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Latest attempt this journey when led from pillar to near the post in the Country Boosted (Bm58) at Beaumont. Won only other time at Quirindi. Key chance.
ILB
Peaked on the run when 2nd last time at Newcastle. Can win.
RP
Track has proven suitable before; went close when second at Beaumont last month.
RSIS
Was strong on the pace before fading to finish 2nd beaten by 1/2L last run at Newcastle. Strong prospects.
Career
15: 2-0-0
Rating · IRD
71
Speed map
Leader
First-up
4: 1-0-0
Second-up
3: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Muswellbrook
1: 0-0-0
Track Scone
4: 0-0-0
Track Tamworth
10: 2-0-0
Distance 1000m
4: 1-0-0
Distance 1100m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
4: 1-0-0
Going Soft
7: 0-0-0
Going Unknown
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
5: 0-0-0
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Down In Weight
Positive
Drops 5.5kg from LS run
AAP
Sent out $7 when unable to threaten in soft going at Tamworth. Switching to 1200m but also up in class. Looking elsewhere.
ILB
Was $14.00 and just average when 6th last start at Tamworth but suited by the weight drop. Has good tactical speed and will be nicely positioned. Needs a lot of luck in this race.
RP
Could not manage better than sixth over 7f at Tamworth (handicap) last week; knows how to win so warrants respect.
RSIS
Was 13/1 and disappointing outing when 6th last time at Tamworth but carrying less weight this time. Has shown early pace in races to date.
Career
17: 1-0-3
Rating · IRD
84
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-1
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Muswellbrook
5: 0-0-1
Track Quirindi
1: 1-0-0
Track Scone
3: 0-0-2
Distance 1000m
7: 1-0-0
Distance 1100m
3: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
4: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
5: 0-0-1
Going Good
11: 1-0-2
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 29% better than Career Avg.
Key Rider
Positive
Billy Cray 27% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 20%
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Well beaten LS
Negative
Not competitive last run
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
AAP
Settled back and didn't figure over this trip in the Country Boosted (Bm58) at Beaumont. Others more persuasive.
ILB
At $26.00 sub-standard effort when 9th last run at Newcastle. Will be giving the leaders a big start. Watching with interest.
RP
A previous winner here; form has been a bit up and down of late; finished ninth of 12 at Beaumont last month; others are preferred.
RSIS
Odds of 25/1 and clearly outclassed when 9th last run at Newcastle. Might have to make up considerable ground.
Career
37: 2-1-0
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
6: 0-0-0
Second-up
5: 1-0-0
Third-up
5: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
2: 0-0-0
Track Taree
1: 0-0-0
Track Wyong
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1150m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
24: 1-0-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
11: 1-1-0
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 2%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are under performing market expectations by -44%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 52%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 65% Profit on Turnover
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Winless since 11 Jun 2024. Failed to threaten at Scone as a despised outsider. Has plenty to find on latest offerings. On trust.
ILB
Was $151.00 and folded up in the straight when 12th last start at Scone but matched against less formidable competition. Has the ideal barrier. Unfortunately, it seems unlikely.
RP
Achieved each of his two career wins at Scone and recent form is unremarkable; finished last of 12 over 5½f at Scone (handicap) last month; others are preferred.
RSIS
Started 150/1 and was well beaten when 12th last start at Scone but matched against lesser competition. Drawn by the rails.