Shortest win price
Uncle Harry (1)
3.20
Port Macquarie hosts a Benchmark 66 sprint over 1500m on a Soft 6 track this afternoon at 1:50 pm AEDT. The win market is headed by Uncle Harry, with Rose Water and Jason Darren next, followed by Golden Honour. Uncle Harry comes with recent form — a close second at Muswellbrook over this exact distance and going, with Aaron Bullock in the saddle for an in-form P M Perry stable. Rose Water sits second pick after 15 weeks between runs but brings solid recent form and a Newcastle trial to build fitness. Jason Darren leads from barrier 4 and brings a rating of 100, though the form in the book points to recent struggles when given responsibility at the head of affairs.
Uncle Harry rates a real chance on the numbers. The last-start second at Muswellbrook at 1:50 pm AEDT distance ticks the track-and-distance win box, and Bullock has ridden the horse before. Perry's stable is outperforming market expectations by 37 per cent and sits at a 23 per cent return on turnover across the last 100 runners — a sign the stable is hitting the mark when it counts. Golden Honour is backing up quickly from Kempsey but worked late without threatening; the rating sits at 88, and third-up and fourth-up records suggest some juice remains. Rose Water gets a more suitable distance at 1500m after recent racing at 800m and 1800m, and the track knowledge helps. Trainer J C Deamer had the horse in the minors first-up last campaign.
Russian Escape and The Young Years both posted the fastest finishing sectionals last start, and both jockeys are running above career averages. Rolls is up 26 per cent, Looker is up 21 per cent, which points to some tactical nous in the saddle. Jason Darren will cut out the work from barrier 4 as the clear leader, with Rose Water and Contaldo alongside in the onpace group. The offpace brigade — Uncle Harry and Argerich — will settle across the track, leaving the midfield runners and backmarker room to run the home turn. Argerich rates a chance as a roughie; Jenny Duggan is running 54 per cent better than her career average, and the jockey-trainer combo is outperforming market expectations by 160 per cent.
Shortest win price
Uncle Harry (1)
3.20
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Midfield
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Uncle Harry · Positive
Trainer Form
In form stable, out performing market expectations 37%
Rose Water · Positive
Up In Dist
Racing at a more suitable distance
Jason Darren · Negative
Trainer Recent
Camp struggling with S/R just 8%
Golden Honour · Negative
Trainer Career
Trainer Career S/R is 9%
Career
44: 4-3-5
Rating · IRD
87
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
6: 1-0-0
Second-up
5: 1-0-0
Third-up
5: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
4: 0-1-1
Track Newcastle
24: 2-2-1
Track Warwick Farm
2: 0-0-0
Track Wyong
7: 0-0-2
Distance 1400m
9: 1-0-0
Distance 1500m
8: 1-2-0
Distance 1890m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
14: 1-2-0
Going Good
27: 3-1-5
Going Heavy
3: 0-0-0
Trainer Form
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectations 37%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 23% POT in L100 Runners
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Improved L/S
Positive
Improved again last start
Long Prep
Negative
Yet to find the winners stall this prep
AAP
Long losing streak but recent efforts sound. Pretty good effort in defeat at Muswellbrook. Ticks the track and distance win box. Bullock rides. Danger.
ILB
Finished well when 2nd last run at Muswellbrook. Aaron Bullock is highly regarded. Can't leave out of your calculations.
RP
Creditable effort to finish second, finished ahead of Jason Darren at Muswellbrook 11 days ago; boasts winning form over C&D; has maintained his consistent level of form; assuming he steps up from most recent effort then must be respected.
RSIS
Ran on when 2nd beaten by 1 1/2L last start at Muswellbrook. Aaron Bullock is an advantage. Can't leave out of your calculations.
Career
18: 3-3-2
Rating · IRD
85
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
5: 1-1-1
Second-up
4: 0-2-0
Third-up
3: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Track Kembla Grange
1: 0-0-0
Track Canterbury
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1550m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1614m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1100m
3: 1-0-0
Going Good
10: 1-3-0
Going Heavy
3: 2-0-1
Going Soft
5: 0-0-1
Up In Dist
Positive
Racing at a more suitable distance
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
First-up (15-weeks). Form solid last time in. In the minors at Muswellbrook first-up last campaign while building fitness through 2 trials. Can challenge fresh.
ILB
First up and picked up late ground when 3rd first up last preparation at Muswellbrook. Has not placed in all barrier trials but competing in a less challenging grade. Low-key chance.
RP
Came home ninth, beaten 8l, at Randwick over 1m1f (handicap) in July; this is her grade; respected as would have leading chance if back in the same form she showed when winning two starts ago.
RSIS
Resuming and hit the line well when 3rd beaten by 3 1/4L resuming last preparation at Muswellbrook. Has not placed in multiple trials but goes down in class.
Career
27: 2-10-4
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Leader
First-up
5: 0-0-2
Second-up
4: 0-1-0
Third-up
3: 0-3-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-3-0
Track Hawkesbury
1: 0-0-1
Track Kembla Grange
1: 0-1-0
Track Warwick Farm
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1150m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
4: 0-1-0
Distance 1280m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
12: 1-4-3
Going Heavy
4: 0-2-0
Going Soft
11: 1-4-1
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 8%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 33%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 11%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
AAP
Led, gave away under pressure at Muswellbrook second-up. Decent alley. Poor win rate but always tries hard and lands in a suitable contest.
ILB
At $7.50 didn't stay in touch when 4th last time at Muswellbrook. Should race on the speed. Entitled to be respected in betting.
RP
Close up behind Uncle Harry when fourth (Muswellbrook) 11 days ago upped to this distance; facing a testing assignment and others are preferred.
RSIS
At 13/2 didn't maintain the pace throughout when 4th last run at Muswellbrook. Will be pushing for a forward position early. Should feature prominently.
Career
40: 4-6-3
Rating · IRD
88
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
7: 0-0-1
Second-up
6: 0-2-0
Third-up
6: 1-2-0
Fourth-up
4: 1-1-0
Track Taree
16: 2-4-1
Track Randwick
1: 0-0-0
Track Kempsey
4: 2-0-0
Distance 1350m
3: 0-1-0
Distance 1505m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1605m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
16: 0-3-3
Going Heavy
12: 3-1-0
Going Soft
12: 1-2-0
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 9%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 20%
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Form At Track
Negative
Yet to win here
Fitness
Positive
At peak fitness backing up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Backing up quickly. Long losing streak but recent efforts sound. Settled midfield, ran on fairly without threatening at Kempsey. Capable of making an impact.
ILB
Racing on a quick back up. Started at $6.50 and passed some rivals in the late stages when 4th last run at Kempsey on a heavy rated track. Reasonable chance.
RP
Has been fairly consistent of late; he meets the required standard ability wise; finished fourth but wasn't beaten too far (3l) at Kempsey on Friday; should be thereabouts.
RSIS
Backs up quickly. At 11/2 moved ahead of some to finish 4th last start at Kempsey on a heavy rated track and going down in class. Hard to see finishing out of the placings.
Career
34: 4-1-5
Rating · IRD
80
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
4: 1-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Ipswich
2: 0-0-0
Track Taree
8: 1-0-2
Track Gatton
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1350m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
4: 1-0-1
Distance 1800m
3: 0-1-0
Going Good
15: 1-1-1
Going Heavy
8: 3-0-2
Going Soft
11: 0-0-2
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 54% better than Career Avg.
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 160%
Key Jockey
Positive
Jenny Duggan winning at 43% POT in last 100 rides
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 21%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Primed
Positive
Fitter here racing on a quick back up
AAP
On a quick back-up. Off midfield when flew home on the H10 to score at Kempsey off spell. May need it heavy again.
ILB
Backs up quickly. Stormed home to win last run at Kempsey and has drawn to do little work. Looks hopeful.
RP
Can boast winning form over this C&D; caused an upset when winning handicap at 18-1 at Kempsey on Friday; should be in the mix.
RSIS
Backing up quickly for this race. Flew home to win last run at Kempsey on a heavy track and has the ideal stall.
Career
21: 1-3-1
Rating · IRD
79
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
5: 0-0-1
Second-up
4: 0-1-0
Third-up
3: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Caulfield Heath
1: 0-0-0
Track Randwick Kensington
1: 0-1-0
Track Hawkesbury
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2004m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
15: 1-2-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
5: 0-1-0
Jockey Booking
Negative
Kacie Adams current POT is 45% below Career Avg.
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 2%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 64%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 69% Profit on Turnover
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 58% in L100 rides
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 21%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
AAP
Freshened. Got back and wasn't totally disgraced this track second-up. Worth a look.
ILB
Started $151.00 and ran 6th last time at this venue. Should jump out and bowl along. Long shot.
RP
Does not win very often; not disgraced in sixth over 6f here (handicap) last month; this looks a fair heat so looks an unlikely winner.
RSIS
Was 150/1 and ran 6th last start here. Should be going forward early.
Career
16: 1-3-1
Rating · IRD
91
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
5: 0-0-1
Second-up
3: 1-1-0
Third-up
3: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Werribee
1: 0-0-0
Track Sandown
1: 0-0-0
Track Port Macquarie
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1250m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1300m
3: 0-0-1
Distance 1420m
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-1-0
Going Good
12: 1-2-1
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 26% in Last 100 Rides
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 8%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 25%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 14%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Better for last start
Positive
Improved with last few runs
AAP
Ready to deliver. Kept coming and just fell short at Coonabarabran. Right in this.
ILB
Made some ground late when 2nd last time at Coonabarabran. Chance and can measure up.
RP
Beaten narrowly at Coonabarabran over 7f (handicap) two weeks ago; achieved just the one win; others appeal more as not in the habit of winning recently.
RSIS
Nice effort to run into 2nd beaten by 1/2L last time at Coonabarabran. Strong prospects in this race.
Career
33: 2-4-3
Rating · IRD
73
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
4: 1-1-0
Second-up
3: 0-0-1
Third-up
3: 0-0-1
Track Coffs Harbour
2: 0-0-0
Track Port Macquarie
7: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
7: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1208m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1250m
3: 0-0-1
Going Soft
11: 0-1-1
Going Unknown
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
10: 0-3-0
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 21% in Last 100 Rides
Trainer SR
Negative
Terry Evans striking at just 5%
Key Rider
Positive
Ben Looker 29% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -31% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 34%
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Form At Track
Negative
Yet to win here
AAP
Last success was 13 Jul 2024. Fair way from the winner but battled home into third at Wauchope over longer assignment. Unplaced from 7 starts here. Harder to warm to.
ILB
Ran well when 3rd last start at Wauchope and carrying less weight this time. Will be giving the leaders a big start. Questions at this level.
RP
A while since she's been in the winners' enclosure (last win in 2024); beaten 5½l in third over 1m1f at Wauchope (handicap) four weeks ago; others more persuasive.
RSIS
Nice run when 3rd last start at Wauchope and will benefit with the weight drop. Does take a while to get into stride.
Career
23: 1-1-1
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
5: 0-0-0
Second-up
4: 0-0-0
Third-up
4: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
2: 0-1-0
Track Kempsey
2: 0-0-0
Track Eagle Farm
1: 0-0-0
Track Port Macquarie
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1305m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
8: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
5: 0-0-0
Going Soft
5: 0-0-0
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 1%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 62%
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 21%
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Well beaten LS
Negative
Not competitive last run
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 2
Fitness
Positive
At peak fitness backing up
AAP
Backing up quickly. Found it tough since shaking his maiden. Dropped out to last and never sighted at Kempsey. Needs to lift.
ILB
Backing up quickly. Started at $101.00 and tailed off to finish 11th last time at Kempsey on a heavy surface but drawn nicely. Blinkers go off for the first time. Struggle to recommend.
RP
Finished last of 11 (Kempsey) on Friday; been out of sorts of late; this line-up contains some strong opposition so may have to settle for supporting role at best.
RSIS
Backing up quickly. Was 100/1 and tailed off to finish 11th last start at Kempsey but has a good draw. Blinkers go off for the first time.