Pakenham Synthetic (VIC) horsestips & previews

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Pakenham Synthetic (VIC), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Friday 2 October 2026

Race 5 — Mcmahon's Dairy (Bm70) 1000m · jumps 8:15 pm AEST

Race notes

3yo+,Benchmark 70,F&M BM70
GOOD3
Showers
6 runners

Shortest win price

Headbanger (3)

1.95

Most career wins

Shooting For Stars

6-8-6 from 51 starts

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Backmarker

2Milos Filos

Midfield

4Iced Poppy

Offpace

10Shooting For Stars
1Shaime

Onpace

3Headbanger

Leader

7Sweet Vixen

Shaime · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 35% in Last 100 Rides
Milos Filos · Negative
Trainer Recent
Camp struggling with S/R just 5%
Headbanger · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -35% POT in their L100 Races
Iced Poppy · Positive
Fast Finisher
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace

1ShaimeJ: Ethan Brown·T: C I Brown362kg3 8 2 1 1128: 4-6-25.502.40

Career

28: 4-6-2

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
6: 1-1-0
Second-up
5: 0-0-2
Third-up
4: 1-1-0
Fourth-up
4: 0-2-0
Track Randwick
1: 0-0-0
Track Moonee Valley
1: 0-1-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1000m
4: 0-1-1
Distance 1100m
4: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
6: 3-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

11Caulfield1200m11 Apr 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT75.9L
1Sandown1200m25 Mar 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT5-0.3
2Caulfield Heath1200m4 Mar 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD42.3L
8Cranbourne1200m6 Feb 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD315L
3Flemington1200m31 Dec 2025 · BM70 · GOOD33.2L
5Caulfield Heath1200m20 Dec 2025 · 3UP F&M BM78 HCP · GOOD43.1L
11Pakenham Synthetic1200m29 Aug 2025 · BM78 · SYNTHETIC8.9L
6Flemington1200m2 Aug 2025 · 3UP BM74 HCP · GOOD43.3L

Insights

Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 35% in Last 100 Rides
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 5%
Key Rider
Positive
Ethan Brown 59% above market expected in L100 Rides
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 40%
Key Jockey
Positive
Ethan Brown winning at 36% POT in last 100 rides
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance

Comments

AAP

Resuming (24-weeks). Solid form at this level last campaign. Proven fresh performer. Winner of a Mornington jump-out 16/9. Warrants attention.

ILB

First run back from a break. At $10.00 weakened to finish 11th last run at Caulfield. Should improve from the last run but will have to carry extra weight. Expect support.

RSIS

Back from a break. At 9/1 didn't find the line when 11th last run at Caulfield. Looking past the last run but hoping that the added weight won't hurt. Will run close.

2Milos FilosJ: Alana Kelly·T: Liam Howley660.5kg4 2 3 1 411: 2-2-25.502.40

Career

11: 2-2-2

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Caulfield
1: 0-0-0
Track Kyneton
1: 1-0-0
Track Caulfield Heath
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1050m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1100m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1125m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
8: 1-2-1
Going Soft
3: 1-0-1

Last starts

4Seymour800m11 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)2.2L
1Sandown1400m23 May 2026 · 3Y FILLIES BM78 HCP · SOFT7-1.25
3Flemington1200m16 May 2026 · 3Y HCP · GOOD42.5L
2Caulfield Heath1200m29 Apr 2026 · 3Y BM64 · GOOD40.5L
4Mornington1200m18 Apr 2026 · 3YF HCP · GOOD42.4L
4Caulfield1200m4 Apr 2026 · 3Y FILLIES HCP · GOOD31.8L
1Kyneton1206m13 Mar 2026 · 3Y FILLIES MDN-SW · GOOD4-2.8
2Seymour1100m20 Feb 2026 · 3YF MDN-SW · GOOD42.3L

Insights

Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 5%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 51%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Consistent
Positive
Showing up at the business end

Comments

AAP

First-up (18-weeks). Not beaten far Maiden company at Geelong first-up last preparation. Jump-outs have been okay. Can challenge again fresh in this company.

ILB

First up from a break. Ran home strongly to win last start at Sandown and will find this grade easier. Will be down in distance. Has more weight to carry. Has a good chance.

RSIS

Resumes from a break. Bold effort when winning last start at Sandown and matched against lesser competition. Will be motoring home late. Dropping in distance. Chance and can measure up.

3HeadbangerJ: Blake Shinn·T: G M Begg859kg2 1 5 1 58: 2-2-11.951.26

Career

8: 2-2-1

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating100%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
3: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Flemington
1: 0-0-0
Track Hawkesbury
1: 0-1-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
6: 2-1-1
Distance 1100m
2: 0-1-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
6: 2-2-1

Last starts

5Sandown1000m9 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT72.8L
1Cranbourne1000m13 Mar 2026 · 3Y FILLIES BM64 HCP · GOOD4-2
5Flemington1100m28 Feb 2026 · 3Y FILLIES HCP · GOOD45L
1Cranbourne1000m13 Feb 2026 · 3Y F MDN-SW · GOOD3-8
2Sandown1000m28 Jan 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · GOOD40.5L
3Cranbourne1000m12 Dec 2025 · 3yo+ · GOOD31.2L
7Pakenham1000m28 Nov 2025 · 3YF MDN-SW · SOFT55.6L
2Hawkesbury1100m9 Apr 2025 · Handicap · GOOD41.29L

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -35% POT in their L100 Races
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Latest attempt this journey when reasonable effort without seriously threatening in choppy conditions at Sandown-Hillside. Fitter second-up. Form sound this track and distance. Can show more here.

ILB

Jumped at $3.10 and didn't find the line when 5th last start at Sandown. Has the potential to improve sharply. Should come to hand quickly. Like to be on it today.

RSIS

At 11/5 tailed off to finish 5th last run at Sandown. Should improve from the last run. Won't be far away during the run. Winning hope.

4Iced PoppyJ: Lachlan King·T: Ben Brisbourne1059kg1 10 3 4 110: 3-1-25.002.30

Career

10: 3-1-2

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
Early Speed20%
Rating40%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
2: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Kyneton
1: 1-0-0
Track Yarra Valley
1: 0-0-0
Track Wangaratta
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
4: 2-0-1
Distance 1209m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
6: 2-1-1
Going Heavy
2: 1-0-1
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0

Last starts

1Bendigo1100m20 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD3-2.25
4Bendigo1000m6 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT50.8L
3Bendigo1100m12 Aug 2026 · 3UP F&M BM66 HCP · HEAVY93L
10Sandown1300m22 July 2026 · Benchmark 66 · SOFT68L
1Bendigo1100m5 July 2026 · 2yo+ · HEAVY9-1.3
1Kyneton1479m10 Feb 2026 · 3UP F&M MDN-SW · GOOD4-0.8
3Wangaratta1400m18 Jan 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD31.4L
2Gundagai1400m2 Jan 2026 · MDN SW · GOOD30.8L

Insights

Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 24% lower than Career Avg.
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 25% in L100 rides
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 5%
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Triumphant on speed display at Bendigo. On pacer. Fit from racing, worth a look.

ILB

Finished well when winning last time at Bendigo but rising in class. Has been a model of consistency this campaign. Respect the betting.

RSIS

Finished hard to win last time at Bendigo but facing a stronger class.

5SojuScratched4––––

Rating · IRD

Comments

AAP

Ex Simon Zahra in Victoria. Long winless run. Not disgraced at Bendigo over this distance. Others rate stronger.

ILB

Made up ground when 5th last run at Bendigo but stepping up to a higher level. First start for a new trainer and dropping weight.

RSIS

Kept chasing when 5th last time at Bendigo but racing against tougher rivals. Change in trainer and gets some weight taken off.

6Le NotreScratched1––––

Career

6: 1-0-2

Rating · IRD

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating50%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Gold Coast
1: 0-0-0
Track Mornington
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
5: 1-0-1
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
2: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 1-0-1

Last starts

1Pakenham1200m22 May 2026 · 2UP F&M MDN-SW · SOFT6-2
5Warrnambool1200m5 May 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · HEAVY85.2L
4Mornington1200m5 Apr 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD31.9L
3Cranbourne1200m20 Mar 2026 · 3UP F&M MDN-SW · GOOD33.8L
3Stony Creek1100m8 Mar 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · SOFT60.9L
5Gold Coast1200m12 July 2025 · 2Y MDN-SW · SOFT52.2L
1Beaudesert1050m27 June 2025 · Barrier Trial-3
2Gold Coast850m17 June 2025 · Barrier Trial0.8L

Insights

Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside

Comments

AAP

First-up (19-weeks). Ex S B Laming. Trained here now. Form honest through last campaign. Placed at Stony Creek first-up last campaign.

ILB

First up from a spell. Picked up nicely to win last start at Pakenham and can save some energy from the gate. Testing ability against stronger contenders.

RSIS

Resuming after a break. Finished with purpose when winning last time at Pakenham and gets the perfect stall. Facing stiffer opposition.

7Sweet VixenJ: Logan Bates·T: Ms C Alderson955.5kg2 1 53: 1-1-05.002.35

Career

3: 1-1-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
1: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
2: 1-0-0
Track Sale
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1006m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1100m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 1-1-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

5Pakenham1200m26 Mar 2026 · 3Y BM64 · HEAVY912.7L
1Pakenham1100m5 Mar 2026 · 3YF MDN-SW · GOOD4-0.5
2Sale1006m11 Feb 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · GOOD40.5L

Insights

Hot Trainer
Positive
Cindy Alderson in good form, out performing market 44%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 28% POT in L100 Runners
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Kicks off second campaign (27-weeks). Placed at Sale on debut last campaign. Recent 2nd at a jump-out here. Can make her presence felt fresh in this line-up with even breaks.

ILB

First up and did well to run into 2nd beaten by 1/2L first up last preparation at Sale. Should be going forward early. Promising career start. Watch early betting.

RSIS

Resuming and good run when finishing 2nd beaten by 1/2L resuming last preparation at Sale. Should be going forward early. Solid career start. Capable type.

8ParcaeScratched2––––

Rating · IRD

Comments

AAP

Short odds and duly saluted at Mornington on debut. M J Dee retains the ride. Can show up again at fair odds.

ILB

Strong performance to win by 2 1/2L last run at Mornington and having second race start. Has a good draw. Competing in a more challenging grade.

RSIS

Displayed potential when winning by 2 1/2L last run at Mornington and having second race start. Can find a nice position from the draw. Challenged by more formidable competitors.

9FontaliciousScratched7––––

Career

5: 1-1-1

Rating · IRD

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed20%
Rating50%
Closing Speed20%

Record

First-up
2: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Mornington
1: 0-0-0
Track Morphettville
1: 0-1-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1000m
4: 1-1-1
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 1-0-1
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-1-0

Last starts

8Sandown1000m9 Sept 2026 · 3Y BM64 · SOFT74.1L
3Sandown1000m22 July 2026 · 2YF HCP · SOFT61.9L
2Morphettville1000m11 July 2026 · 2Y CL1 HCP · HEAVY101.8L
1Cranbourne1000m21 June 2026 · 2Y MDN-SW · SOFT7-0.4
4Mornington1200m23 Dec 2025 · 2Y MDN-SW · GOOD410.5L

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 6%
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Set tempo, offered little resistance when challenged at Sandown-Hillside over this journey. Has early speed. Remote place hope at best.

ILB

Was $16.00 and didn't threaten when 8th last time at Sandown but honest performer putting a tidy record together. In strong racing shape since coming back from a spell.

RSIS

Started 15/1 and was well beaten when 8th last time at Sandown but showing consistent performance in races. In fine form since resuming from a break. Large claim helps.

10Shooting For StarsJ: Sarah Robbins·T: Brendon Newport555kg6 1 3 3 551: 6-8-641.008.50

Career

51: 6-8-6

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo40%
Early Speed20%
Rating20%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
5: 0-0-1
Second-up
4: 0-0-0
Third-up
4: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
4: 1-2-0
Track Barcaldine
1: 0-0-0
Track Carrathool
1: 0-1-0
Track Hillston
1: 0-0-0
Distance 900m
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1009m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1050m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
24: 3-3-2
Going Heavy
10: 1-3-1
Going Soft
13: 2-0-3

Last starts

5Mount Gambier900m20 Sept 2026 · 0-54 · SOFT52.28L
3Naracoorte1100m28 Aug 2026 · 0-54 · HEAVY94.1L
3Warracknabeal1000m15 Aug 2026 · 0 - 56 · SOFT60.9L
1Mount Gambier900m7 Aug 2026 · 0-54 · HEAVY10-1.53
6Barcaldine1300m6 July 2026 · BM50 · GOOD42.82L
5Wodonga1100m27 June 2026 · BM52 · HEAVY81.6L
4Wagga1000m21 June 2026 · BM58 · HEAVY107.9L
12Bendigo1100m13 June 2026 · 0 - 56 · SOFT55.62L

Insights

Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 3%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -32% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 62%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 71% Profit on Turnover
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Finished it off only fairly at Mt Gambier when supported. Strikes a harder race.

ILB

Was $3.50 and couldn't stay in touch when 5th last time at Mount Gambier and up against a more competitive field. Cannot be tipped.

RSIS

At 5/2 struggled with the pace when 5th last start at Mount Gambier and up in class.

Odds correct as at 12:00 pm AEST. Odds can change.