Pakenham Synthetic (VIC) horsestips & previews

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Pakenham Synthetic (VIC), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Friday 2 October 2026

Race 4 — More From Tote With Ladbrokes (Bm74) 1000m · jumps 7:45 pm AEST

Race notes

3yo+,BM74,Benchmark 74
GOOD3
Showers
7 runners

Shortest win price

Speir (1)

2.50

Most career wins

Phoenix Flyer

9-14-16 from 105 starts

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Backmarker

10Phoenix Flyer

Offmidfield

2Jennyanydots

Onpace

4Mr Tickles
7Leantothemoon

Leader

1Speir
6The Speed Machine
8Room For Bingo

Speir · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 6% in Last 100 Rides
Jennyanydots · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are out performing market expectations by 41%
Mr Tickles · Negative
Trainer Career
Trainer Career S/R is 6%
The Speed Machine · Negative
Trainer Recent
Camp struggling with S/R just 10%

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace

1SpeirJ: Sam Kennedy·T: Nathan Mcpherson359.5kg1 5 1 6 109: 4-1-12.501.40

Career

9: 4-1-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed20%

Record

First-up
3: 1-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
1: 1-0-0
Track Mornington
1: 1-0-0
Track Warrnambool
1: 0-0-0
Distance 888m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
7: 4-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
8: 4-1-1
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

10Sandown1000m26 Dec 2025 · BM70 · GOOD49L
6Warrnambool1000m30 Nov 2025 · 3UP BM70 HCP · SOFT67.8L
1Moe1000m16 Nov 2025 · 3UP BM66 HCP · GOOD4-2.3
5Sandown1000m18 June 2025 · BM70 HCP · GOOD44.8L
1Ballarat1000m23 Feb 2025 · BenchMark 64 · GOOD3-0.5
3Moonee Valley888m7 Feb 2025 · BenchMark 64 · GOOD40.81L
1Cranbourne1000m18 Jan 2025 · Class 1 · GOOD3-1.75
1Mornington1000m5 Jan 2025 · Maiden · GOOD4-2.75

Insights

Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 6% in Last 100 Rides
Jockey Booking
Positive
Sam Kennedy 27% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 114%
Hot Trainer
Positive
Nathan McPherson in good form, out performing market 67%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 43% POT in L100 Runners
Hot Jockey
Positive
Sam Kennedy in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 27%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out

Comments

AAP

First-up (40-weeks). Handy fresh horse. Won a jump-out here 21/9. Maps well. Not out of this fresh in this line-up.

ILB

First up and showed a clean pair of heels to win by a margin of 2 1/4L first up last preparation at Moe. Should muster plenty of early speed. Good chance in this.

RSIS

Resuming and gave them all something to chase when winning by a margin of 2 1/4L resuming last preparation at Moe. Should race on the pace. Strong claims in this.

2JennyanydotsJ: Jye Mcneil·T: Mitchell Freedman1058kg11 10 1 3 722: 5-3-46.502.80

Career

22: 5-3-4

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offmidfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed80%
Rating60%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
3: 0-2-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-1
Third-up
2: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 1-0-0
Track Sandown
4: 1-1-0
Track Caulfield Heath
5: 1-0-0
Track Ballarat Synthetic
1: 1-0-0
Distance 955m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 975m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1000m
12: 4-2-1
Going Good
13: 2-3-2
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-2
Going Soft
6: 2-0-0

Last starts

7Caulfield Heath1000m16 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD42.57L
3Bendigo1000m26 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · HEAVY81.8L
1Bendigo800m18 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · HEAVY(8)-0.8
10Flemington1100m1 Aug 2026 · BM78 · GOOD35.1L
11Caulfield1100m11 July 2026 · BM78 · SOFT73.4L
1Ballarat Synthetic1000m2 July 2026 · BM70 · SYNTHETIC-0.5
4Caulfield Heath1000m17 June 2026 · Benchmark 74 · SOFT63L
9Sandown1000m23 May 2026 · BM78 · SOFT72.4L

Insights

Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 41%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 21% POT in L100 Runners
Map Suits
Positive
Suitable Map, where runners in this position outperform market by 3%
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Closed off late from the tail at Caulfield Heath. Capable of making an impact if things pan out.

ILB

Looked flat when 7th last run at Caulfield Heath. Jye Mcneil takes the reins today. Place claims at best.

RSIS

Underwhelming when 7th last time at Caulfield Heath. Jye Mcneil is a plus.

3YukainaScratched6––––

Career

3: 2-0-0

Rating · IRD

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating50%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
1: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Colac
1: 1-0-0
Track Stawell
1: 0-0-0
Track Sandown
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1210m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
3: 2-0-0

Last starts

4Stawell1100m5 Apr 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD32.7L
2Caulfield Heath800m26 Mar 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)0.5L
1Sandown1300m28 Jan 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD4-0.8
1Colac1210m6 Jan 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD3-4.3

Insights

Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 27% better than Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Positive
John Allen 25% above market expected in L100 Rides
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 21% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 6%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Returns for second campaign (25-weeks). Not too far off the mark in his first preparation. Big win in Maiden company Colac last time first-up. Expecting a prominent showing fresh in this line-up.

ILB

Resumes from a break. Was $1.85 and finished 4th last start at Stawell but promising career start. Suited by the weight drop.

RSIS

Resuming after a break. Odds of 5/6 and ran 4th last start at Stawell but showing consistent performance in races. Gets some weight taken off.

4Mr TicklesJ: Daniel Stackhouse·T: Mitchell Leek155.5kg4 3 1 4 1145: 6-12-57.503.20

Career

45: 6-12-5

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed20%
Rating40%
Closing Speed20%

Record

First-up
5: 1-2-1
Second-up
4: 2-1-0
Third-up
4: 1-0-1
Fourth-up
4: 0-2-0
Track Mornington
5: 0-1-0
Track Warrnambool
1: 0-1-0
Track Seymour
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1108m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
8: 1-2-1
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
13: 2-5-1
Going Synthetic
6: 1-3-0
Going Good
17: 2-2-2

Last starts

11Caulfield Heath1100m8 Aug 2026 · 3UP BM74 HCP · SOFT612.9L
4Moe1017m21 July 2026 · 2yo+ · HEAVY90.6L
1Cranbourne1000m16 July 2026 · 2yo+ · HEAVY9-1.8
3Bendigo1000m5 July 2026 · 2yo+ · HEAVY90.6L
4Wangaratta1000m22 Dec 2025 · BM56 · SOFT51.8L
1Moe1000m14 Dec 2025 · 3UP BM56 HCP · GOOD4-0.3
6Geelong1100m22 Oct 2025 · 3yo+ · SOFT612.4L
2Warrnambool1000m3 Oct 2025 · 3yo+ · HEAVY100.4L

Insights

Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 6%
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 182%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 23%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 1
Fresh
Positive
Freshened up. Had a break of 42-60 days

Comments

AAP

Let-up (55-days). No threat as a $41 chance in 3yo+ (Bm74) at Caulfield Heath. Drawn to get an economic trail. Look for a better showing.

ILB

Freshened up. Was $41.00 and didn't threaten when 11th last time at Caulfield Heath but competing in an easier class. Shows good early pace. Drawn beautifully. Big improvement required to threaten these.

RSIS

Freshened up. Started 40/1 and gave away some ground when 11th last run at Caulfield Heath but up against weaker rivals. Shows good early pace. Will appreciate a good stall.

5Walter SpurScratched7––––

Career

27: 4-3-6

Rating · IRD

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed20%
Rating50%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
7: 2-1-2
Second-up
6: 0-1-2
Third-up
4: 2-0-1
Fourth-up
3: 0-1-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
5: 0-1-1
Track Pakenham
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1005m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1008m
1: 0-0-1
Going Soft
12: 2-0-3
Going Good
6: 0-0-3
Going Heavy
9: 2-3-0

Last starts

3Sandown1000m9 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT70.9L
12Caulfield1100m15 Aug 2026 · BM74 · SOFT67.5L
1Sandown1000m29 July 2026 · BM70 · HEAVY10-0.4
2Sandown1000m15 July 2026 · BM70 · HEAVY90.1L
4Sale1005m28 June 2026 · BM70 · HEAVY81.3L
6Bendigo1000m28 Aug 2025 · BM64 · HEAVY94.2L
4Sale1110m31 July 2025 · 2UP BM64 HCP · SOFT73.1L
5Bendigo1000m13 July 2025 · 2yo+ · HEAVY83.8L

Insights

Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start

Comments

AAP

Came home with a wet sail to grab third 3yo+ (Bm66) at Sandown-Hillside at odds of $12. Claiming apprentice engaged again. Placed only other run at Cranbourne. Capable of making an impact.

ILB

Was strong late when 3rd beaten by 1L last run at Sandown and will appreciate the drop in weight. In a purple patch of form since returning from a break.

RSIS

Put in a competitive run when placing 3rd beaten by 1L last time at Sandown and will appreciate the drop in weight. Exhibiting good form since returning from a break.

6The Speed MachineJ: Blake Shinn·T: M Price & M Kent Jnr855kg1 1 63: 2-0-02.601.45

Career

3: 2-0-0

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer40%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating100%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
1: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Mornington
1: 1-0-0
Track Morphettville
1: 1-0-0
Track Bendigo
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 2-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 2-0-0

Last starts

6Bendigo1100m2 May 2026 · 2Y SW · GOOD33.6L
1Mornington1000m18 Apr 2026 · 2Y-SW · GOOD4-0.3
1Morphettville1000m21 Mar 2026 · 2Y C&G BM68 HCP · GOOD4-3.1

Insights

Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 10%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 36%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Good Form
Positive
Very competitive in recent runs

Comments

AAP

Set for second campaign (21-weeks). Commanding winner at Morphettville Parks when fresh last campaign while brought back with a Cranbourne Training trial. Won 2 of 3 starts in first campaign. Rates highly fresh in this company.

ILB

First up after 21 weeks and showed a clean pair of heels to win by just over 3L first up last preparation at Morphettville. Expecting to settle positively. Rates highly.

RSIS

Resuming and set the tempo when winning by a margin of over 3L resuming last preparation at Morphettville. Has plenty of early pace. Good career start. Play of the day.

7LeantothemoonJ: Samantha Noble·T: S G Noble455kg4 2 2 1 110: 2-5-19.003.70

Career

10: 2-5-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
4: 1-1-1
Second-up
2: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Hawkesbury
4: 1-2-0
Track Muswellbrook
1: 0-1-0
Track Newcastle
1: 0-0-1
Distance 900m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
4: 0-2-0
Distance 1008m
1: 1-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-1-1
Going Good
7: 1-4-0
Going Heavy
1: 1-0-0

Last starts

1Moe1008m8 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · HEAVY8-1
1Bendigo800m18 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · HEAVY(8)-1.5
2Gosford1200m18 Dec 2025 · Class 1 · GOOD40.1L
2Hawkesbury1100m27 Nov 2025 · Benchmark 64 · GOOD40.5L
4Gosford1000m11 Nov 2025 · Benchmark 68 · GOOD42.6L
3Newcastle900m18 Oct 2025 · 3yo+ · SOFT51L
2Gosford1000m25 Apr 2025 · CL1 HCP · SOFT60.6L
2Muswellbrook1000m28 Mar 2025 · Class 2 · GOOD40.62L

Insights

Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Racing Strongly
Positive
Racing in great shape
Weight Drop
Positive
Drops 6.5kg from LS run

Comments

AAP

Strong winning performance after getting back worse than midfield at Moe for new stable. Worth a look.

ILB

Bold effort when winning last time at Moe on a heavy track but competing at a higher class. Has plenty of early speed. Carrying less weight this time. Watch betting.

RSIS

Rocketed home when winning last start at Moe but matched against tougher rivals. Should be going forward early. Carrying less weight this time. Watch betting.

8Room For BingoJ: Remi Tremsal·T: Ms R Waymouth955kg3 1 7 5 414: 3-3-114.004.40

Career

14: 3-3-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo40%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
4: 0-1-1
Second-up
3: 2-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
6: 1-2-1
Track Caulfield
1: 0-0-0
Track Moonee Valley
1: 0-0-0
Distance 955m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
13: 3-3-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
6: 1-2-1
Going Good
7: 2-1-0

Last starts

4Cranbourne1000m16 July 2026 · 2yo+ · HEAVY92L
5Cranbourne1000m21 June 2026 · BM62 · SOFT72.7L
7Sandown1000m10 Sept 2025 · 3yo+ · GOOD412.4L
1Sale1000m17 Aug 2025 · BM64 HCP · GOOD4-1.3
3Cranbourne1000m1 Aug 2025 · 3yo+ · SOFT70.6L
6Sandown1000m5 Mar 2025 · BenchMark 70 · GOOD310.4L
6Moonee Valley955m31 Jan 2025 · Benchmark 70 · GOOD45.4L
1Mornington1000m8 Jan 2025 · BenchMark 70 · GOOD3-0.15

Insights

Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Let-up (78-days). Led, gave away final stages this track second-up. Breaks from an outside gate. Sharper now, has some claims fresh in this company.

ILB

Back from a break. Odds of $10.00 and was overrun when 4th last time at Cranbourne. Will be positive in the run early. This will pose a challenge.

RSIS

First run back after a break. Started 9/1 and didn't maintain the pace throughout when 4th last start at Cranbourne on a heavy rated track.

9Bella CinqueScratched5––––

Career

21: 3-4-3

Rating · IRD

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating50%
Closing Speed20%

Record

First-up
6: 1-1-1
Second-up
3: 0-1-0
Third-up
2: 1-0-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
2: 0-1-0
Track Caulfield
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1000m
17: 3-4-3
Distance 1014m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
13: 3-3-1
Going Heavy
3: 0-0-0
Going Soft
5: 0-1-2

Last starts

6Mornington1000m17 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD43.76L
2Mornington1000m4 Sept 2026 · 3UP BM62 HCP · SOFT51.8L
6Sandown1000m15 July 2026 · BM70 · HEAVY95.9L
4Sale1000m10 June 2026 · 0 - 66 · HEAVY84L
4Cranbourne1000m10 Jan 2026 · 3UP F&M BM62 HCP · GOOD43.2L
4Sale1000m17 Aug 2025 · BM64 HCP · GOOD43.3L
3Sandown1000m23 July 2025 · BenchMark 70 · SOFT51.5L
8Caulfield1100m28 June 2025 · BenchMark 84 · SOFT63.1L

Insights

Hot Jockey
Positive
Nadia Daniels in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 52%

Comments

AAP

Weakened in run home at Mornington. Leads, handy. Can fill the minors here.

ILB

Jumped at $6.00 and didn't attack the line when 6th last time at Mornington. The large claim from Nadia Daniels helps.

RSIS

Started 5/1 and didn't find the line when 6th last run at Mornington. The large claim from Nadia Daniels should help.

10Phoenix FlyerJ: Sarah Robbins·T: Brendon Newport255kg–91.0019.00

Career

105: 9-14-16

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo40%
Early Speed100%
Rating20%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
4: 0-1-0
Second-up
3: 0-1-1
Third-up
3: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
3: 1-0-0
Track Toowoomba
23: 2-5-6
Track Gatton
2: 0-0-0
Track Kilcoy
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1850m
5: 0-0-1
Distance 1280m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
9: 1-2-0
Going Firm
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
71: 8-12-10
Going Heavy
4: 0-0-1

Insights

Trainer SR
Negative
Brendon Newport striking at just 3%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -32% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 62%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 71% Profit on Turnover
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 2
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Resuming (62-weeks). New to Cranbourne. Prefer to see after a lengthy absence.

ILB

First up after a break of 62 weeks. Was $201.00 and only fair when 11th last run at Moree but has a positive draw. Down in distance. Facing stiffer opposition. Highly unlikely it will trouble the judge.

RSIS

Resumes from a 62 week break. At 200/1 performed below standard when 11th last start at Moree but has a good draw. Prefers to settle towards the rear.

Odds correct as at 12:00 pm AEST. Odds can change.