Shortest win price
Warrior Bae (1)
2.30
Welcome to Lismore for race four, the Thomas Noble & Russell Country Boosted (Bm58) over 1320m on a good four track with fine weather, scheduled for 4:05 pm AEDT. The numbers jump off the page in a wide-open betting race, where the win market is closely bunched and headed by Warrior Bae, City Of Tears, Master Artist, and Lolita as the top four in the market order.
Looking at the form behind those shorter prices, Warrior Bae lines up from barrier four for trainer M J Dunn and jockey Paige Fergusson-Smith, bringing a useful recent profile that includes a strong placing at Lismore and a solid run at the Gold Coast despite carrying plenty of weight. City Of Tears draws barrier five for trainer D L Matts and jockey Grace Palmer, coming off a big-margin win at Coffs Harbour and showing early speed that sets up nicely as a leader on this circuit.
Checking further down the race data, Icewater is worth keeping an eye on from barrier three with a hot jockey and trainer combination that outperforms market expectations by a big margin, while Turn Left maps on-pace with jockey Luke Rolls carrying strong recent form. The stats suggest looking closely at these chances in what rates a real contest.
Shortest win price
Warrior Bae (1)
2.30
Most career wins
Lady Alabama
4-4-1 from 25 starts
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offmidfield
Midfield
Onpace
Leader
Warrior Bae · Negative
Trainer Career
Trainer Career S/R is 11%
City Of Tears · Positive
Early Splits
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Lady Alabama · Negative
Rider
Negative rider change today
Master Artist · Positive
Fast Finisher
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Career
16: 2-4-4
Rating · IRD
94
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
3: 0-1-0
Second-up
2: 1-0-0
Third-up
2: 1-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-1
Track Gold Coast
3: 0-0-3
Track Ipswich
2: 0-1-0
Track Murwillumbah
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
6: 0-1-2
Distance 1210m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
5: 1-1-0
Going Heavy
2: 1-0-0
Going Soft
9: 0-3-4
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 11%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 28%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 10%
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Consistent
Positive
Showing up at the business end
AAP
Form useful. Great run at Lismore 25 Sep and really good run in choppy conditions coming from the back iat Gold Coast. Plenty of weight but right in this.
ILB
Showed a good turn of foot when 3rd last time at Gold Coast and challenged by less formidable competitors. Has run into the money multiple times this campaign. Definite claims for punters.
RP
Good effort when 1l third over 6f at Gold Coast (handicap) dropped back in distance three weeks ago; has won at this track; been struggling to get his head in front recently so looks opposable.
RSIS
Improved to place when 3rd beaten by 1L last run at Gold Coast and facing a weaker grade. Putting up notable efforts since returning from a break. Should be in the finish.
Career
10: 3-1-0
Rating · IRD
79
Speed map
Leader
First-up
3: 2-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Port Macquarie
1: 1-0-0
Track Ballina
1: 0-0-0
Track Toowoomba
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1010m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1006m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
5: 1-0-0
Going Heavy
2: 1-0-0
Going Soft
3: 1-1-0
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Margin LS
Positive
Won by a big margin last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Responded strongly to score in small field at Coffs Harbour. Fit from racing, can show up again at fair odds.
ILB
Gave them a lesson when winning by close to 3 1/2L last run at Coffs Harbour. Has shown early pace in races to date. Modest hope.
RP
Admirable career strike-rate (three from ten to date); a good winner at Coffs Harbour last month; difficult to oppose.
RSIS
Found another gear when winning by a margin of almost 3 1/2L last start at Coffs Harbour. Should jump out and bowl along.
Career
25: 4-4-1
Rating · IRD
86
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Lismore
2: 1-1-0
Track CurrentTrack
2: 1-1-0
Track Murwillumbah
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1106m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1183m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
12: 4-2-0
Going Heavy
6: 0-0-0
Going Soft
6: 0-2-1
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Hot Trainer
Positive
Leo Clapham in good form, out performing market 39%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 19% POT in L100 Runners
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Track Stats
Positive
Excels at this track
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Career
15: 2-3-3
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
4: 0-1-1
Second-up
2: 1-0-0
Third-up
2: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Gold Coast
2: 0-0-0
Track Ipswich
1: 0-0-0
Track Murwillumbah
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1415m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1420m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1080m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
7: 0-2-2
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
4: 1-0-0
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 41%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
2nd Up S/R
Positive
Has won 1 from 2 when second up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Weight Rise
Negative
Carrying 8kg more than LS
Career
19: 3-0-2
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Mildura
1: 0-0-0
Track Taree
1: 0-0-0
Track Grafton
7: 1-0-0
Distance 1005m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1410m
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1618m
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
5: 1-0-2
Going Soft
8: 2-0-0
Going Good
6: 0-0-0
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 71% better than Career Avg.
Key Rider
Positive
Danny Peisley 87% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot Jockey
Positive
Danny Peisley in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 87%
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Awkward Draw
Negative
Would have liked a better draw
AAP
Sheer display of grit and determination at Beaumont. Fit from racing, has claims for a repeat.
ILB
Rocketed home when winning last start at Newcastle and getting better in recent performances. Prefers to settle towards the rear. Not threatening these.
RP
Caused an upset when winning handicap at 20-1 (dropped to 6f) at Beaumont 14 days ago; easy to see her making an impression.
RSIS
Rocketed home when winning last time at Newcastle and demonstrating upward trajectory in recent races. Does take a while to get into stride.
Career
17: 1-4-4
Rating · IRD
75
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Inverell
1: 0-1-0
Track Gold Coast
2: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
4: 1-0-2
Distance 1181m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-2-0
Distance 1310m
2: 0-0-1
Going Good
6: 1-2-2
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
10: 0-2-2
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Jockey Booking
Negative
Violet Soulsby current POT is 38% below Career Avg.
Trainer SR
Negative
Ethan Ensby striking at just 9%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -63% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 22%
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 59% in L100 rides
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Outgunned but did enough for third at $5.50 this track over this distance. Each way.
ILB
Put in a competitive run when placing 3rd last time here. Does take a while to get into stride. Others are better.
RP
Comfortably beaten finishing third last month; has won here before.
RSIS
Claimed a spot in the placings when 3rd last time here. Likely to get back in the run.
Career
33: 3-3-6
Rating · IRD
78
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
4: 1-1-1
Second-up
3: 0-1-0
Third-up
3: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
2: 1-0-0
Track Avoca
1: 0-0-1
Track Inverell
2: 0-0-1
Track Talwood
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1050m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
7: 1-0-0
Distance 1320m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
20: 2-2-6
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
6: 0-1-0
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 4%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are under performing market expectations by -40%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 45%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 51% Profit on Turnover
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 41%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 1
AAP
Landed handy, unable to go with winner in Benchmark 58 company this course over this distance. Again one for exotics.
ILB
Made considerable ground when 2nd last time at this venue and will be aiming for a soft run from the draw. Tough race will need luck.
RP
.
RSIS
Did well to run into 2nd beaten by just short of 2 1/2L last start here and drawn beautifully.
Career
20: 2-0-2
Rating · IRD
79
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Grafton
1: 0-0-0
Track Lismore
7: 1-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
7: 1-0-1
Distance 1000m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1212m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1350m
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
9: 0-0-1
Going Good
9: 2-0-1
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 129%
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Increased Dist
Positive
Distance rise from last start
Ready To Strike
Positive
Can be rewarded for recent consistent form
Long Prep
Negative
Yet to find the winners stall this prep
Career
18: 1-2-1
Rating · IRD
77
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Moruya
2: 0-0-0
Track Cowra
1: 1-0-0
Track Canberra
3: 0-1-0
Distance 1600m
3: 0-0-1
Distance 1610m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1650m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
12: 1-2-0
Going Soft
6: 0-0-1
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 25% in Last 100 Rides
Jockey Booking
Positive
Luke Rolls 36% above market expected in L100 Rides
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 44%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Long Prep
Negative
Yet to find the winners stall this prep
AAP
Winless since 10 Mar 2025. Great run at Ballina 4 Oct. Handy but dropped away tamely this track. Prefer others.
ILB
Odds of $7.00 and finished 4th last run at this venue. Shows good early pace. Needs to find a lot more.
RP
Out of the frame (beaten just under 5l in fourth) over 7½f here (handicap) last month; producing solid form figures; just the one win to her name; this looks a decent race so hard enough to fancy.
RSIS
Started 6/1 and ran 4th last run at the track. Displays good tactical pace.