Shortest win price
Bills Angel (5)
3.10
Welcome to Lismore for the Lismore Workers Club BM58 over the 2120m journey on a Good 4 track with fine weather overhead. The win market order has Bills Angel sitting at the head of affairs, closely followed by Justice Served, Quality Miss, and Sun Topaze rounding out the early fancies in what shapes as a fascinating staying test.
Bills Angel comes right into this after a gritty win over this exact track and distance in rain-affected going, leading throughout to hold on tight, and rates a real chance right in the zone for Declan Maher. Quality Miss brings strong recent form following a gallant display when runner-up at Gatton over 2000m, plus a neat placing over this track previously, making her a key player. Sun Topaze also demands respect, having just missed at Grafton before striking a heavy track at Eagle Farm, alongside a game second over this track and trip previously.
Looking further down the pack, Quality Miss maps to find the front as the leader, while Bills Angel pushes forward to sit prominently on the pace. Caracoron maps well with track position numbers pointing to an advantage here, and Papal Miss caught the eye with the fastest overall finishing sectionals last start, adding plenty of depth for punters chasing value.
Shortest win price
Bills Angel (5)
3.10
Most career wins
Justice Served and Papal Miss
7 each
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offmidfield
Midfield
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Justice Served · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 71% in Last 100 Rides
Sun Topaze · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 34% in Last 100 Rides
Caracoron · Positive
Maps Well
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 24%
Zweig · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Career
40: 7-4-2
Rating · IRD
81
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
3: 0-2-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-1
Track Newcastle
2: 0-0-0
Track Kilcoy
2: 0-0-0
Track Gold Coast Poly
4: 0-0-1
Distance 1900m
5: 0-0-2
Distance 2150m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 2450m
3: 1-0-0
Going Soft
14: 2-1-0
Going Synthetic
5: 0-0-1
Going Good
18: 5-2-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 71% in Last 100 Rides
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 11%
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 61%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 22%
Key Jockey
Positive
Jai Williams winning at 69% POT in last 100 rides
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Ready To Fire
Positive
Shown something in last few runs
AAP
Backing up quickly. Long time since last saluted. Secured third in a staggered finish at Gold Coast Poly but others rate stronger.
ILB
Backs up quickly. Came on strongly when 3rd beaten by 4 3/4L last time at Gold Coast Poly. Hard to see it being good enough.
RP
Fair effort when beaten just under 5l, finishing third of seven at Gold Coast over 1m1½f (handicap) a week ago; has scored over C&D; can make his presence felt.
RSIS
On a quick back up. Put in a competitive run when placing 3rd beaten by 4 3/4L last run at Gold Coast Poly.
Career
49: 6-5-4
Rating · IRD
93
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
4: 0-0-0
Second-up
3: 1-0-0
Third-up
3: 1-1-1
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Gold Coast
1: 0-0-0
Track Murwillumbah
2: 0-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
4: 1-1-1
Distance 1425m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1800m
3: 1-0-0
Distance 1600m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
16: 0-2-2
Going Heavy
11: 2-2-1
Going Soft
22: 4-1-1
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 34% in Last 100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 132%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 28% POT in L100 Runners
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Weight Increase
Negative
Rises 10kg now
AAP
Just missed at Grafton 13 Oct. Every chance but compounded in the slosh at Eagle Farm. Game second only other time over this track and distance. Among the dangers.
ILB
Didn't attack the line when 8th last start at Eagle Farm on a heavy rated track but matched against a less competitive field. Goes up in weight. Watch the betting.
RP
A course winner; missed the frame (beaten 10l into eighth) at Eagle Farm over 1m3f (handicap) last month; should be thereabouts as shown he can win fairly recently.
RSIS
Didn't threaten when 8th last run at Eagle Farm but back in an easier grade. Jett Newman and Shane Everson must be respected together. Could feature here.
Career
30: 4-1-5
Rating · IRD
96
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
5: 0-0-1
Second-up
4: 1-0-1
Third-up
4: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
4: 1-0-1
Track Geelong
2: 0-0-0
Track Murwillumbah
2: 1-0-0
Track Grafton
4: 2-0-1
Distance 1900m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 2070m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1820m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
16: 1-1-1
Going Heavy
2: 2-0-0
Going Soft
12: 1-0-4
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 24%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Ready To Strike
Positive
Can be rewarded for recent consistent form
Weight Increase
Negative
Rises 4kg now
Career
13: 3-1-1
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
4: 0-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Hamilton
1: 0-0-0
Track Traralgon
1: 0-0-0
Track Eagle Farm
2: 0-0-0
Distance 2300m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 2600m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 3200m
2: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
3: 0-0-0
Going Soft
5: 1-1-0
Going Unknown
1: 1-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Form
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectations 51%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 37% POT in L100 Runners
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Well beaten LS
Negative
Not competitive last run
Drawn Poorly
Negative
Unfavourable barrier draw
Primed
Positive
Fitter here racing on a quick back up
Down In Weight
Positive
Drops 4kg from LS run
AAP
Backing up quickly. Ordinary performance in small field in choppy conditions at Ballina over longer assignment. New to Lismore. Will have to improve to make an impact.
ILB
Backing up quickly. Odds of $9.50 and didn't find the line when 5th last time at Ballina. Giving another go here but dropping in distance. Good chance at a nice price.
RP
Finished fifth, beaten 14l, (Ballina) a week ago upped to 1m5f; resume shows that he is a proven winner (seeking a fourth career win); this line-up contains some strong opposition so hard to recommend.
RSIS
On a short turnaround. Started 17/2 and faded away to finish 5th last time at Ballina. Expected to rebound but will be dropping in distance. Great chance.
Career
9: 2-2-0
Rating · IRD
91
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-1-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 1-0-0
Track Eagle Farm
1: 0-0-0
Track Gold Coast Poly
1: 0-1-0
Distance 2050m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2120m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 2412m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 1-0-0
Going Soft
5: 1-1-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-1-0
Jockey Booking
Negative
Kyle Wilson-Taylor current POT is 27% below Career Avg.
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 169%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 6% POT in L100 Runners
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 30% in L100 rides
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Just held on after leading this course in rain affected going over this trip. In the zone and hard to toss again.
ILB
Led and controlled the pace to win by a margin of 1/2L last start here and displaying improvement over the past few runs. Minor claims.
RP
Got the job done in a conditions race by half a length three weeks ago; deserves respect.
RSIS
Led and controlled the pace to win by 1/2L last start at this venue and displaying improvement over the past few runs. Displays good tactical pace.
Career
28: 2-0-1
Rating · IRD
80
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
6: 0-0-0
Second-up
5: 0-0-1
Third-up
5: 2-0-0
Fourth-up
5: 0-0-0
Track Flemington
1: 0-0-0
Track Hawkesbury
2: 1-0-0
Track Moonee Valley
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1410m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1550m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1590m
1: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
15: 2-0-0
Going Heavy
3: 0-0-0
Trainer SR
Negative
Gary Nielsen striking at just 4%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -47% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 45%
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 41%
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 2
Career
35: 2-8-3
Rating · IRD
95
Speed map
Leader
First-up
6: 0-2-0
Second-up
5: 0-2-0
Third-up
5: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
5: 1-1-0
Track Lismore
1: 0-0-1
Track Beaudesert
1: 0-1-0
Track Gold Coast
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1800m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1920m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
18: 1-2-2
Going Heavy
2: 0-2-0
Going Soft
13: 1-4-1
Trainer SR
Negative
Diane G Murphy striking at just 4%
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 75%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 44%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 54% Profit on Turnover
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Gallant display at Gatton. Placed only other time here. Key player.
ILB
Amongst the placegetters when 2nd last time at Gatton. Should be going forward early. Serious contender.
RP
Favourite and just came up short at Gatton over 1m2f (handicap) with Termite and Papal Miss behind last month.
RSIS
Finished 2nd last run at Gatton. Won't be far away during the run. Strong prospects.
Career
99: 7-5-13
Rating · IRD
90
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
5: 0-0-0
Second-up
4: 0-0-1
Third-up
4: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
4: 0-1-1
Track Eagle Farm
7: 0-0-0
Track Sunshine Coast
14: 1-0-2
Track Gatton
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
4: 0-0-0
Distance 1257m
3: 0-0-2
Distance 2076m
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
7: 1-1-1
Going Soft
44: 2-1-6
Going Synthetic
16: 3-1-4
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Stable In Form
Positive
Stable going well. Out performing market by 51%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 37% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 41%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
AAP
Sound performance in small field at Gold Coast over longer test. A few runs under her belt this campaign, could give some cheek at odds.
ILB
Did well to finish 3rd last time at Gold Coast and will appreciate the drop in grade. Will be trying to topple them late. Place hope.
RP
Solid effort when beaten just over 1l to finish third over 2m at Gold Coast (handicap) nine days ago.
RSIS
Finished well when 3rd last time at Gold Coast and competing at a lower level of competition. Will be motoring home late. Drawn well. Coming back in distance.
Career
31: 3-2-4
Rating · IRD
87
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
6: 0-0-1
Second-up
5: 2-1-0
Third-up
4: 0-0-2
Fourth-up
4: 1-0-0
Track Kilcoy
1: 0-0-0
Track Gold Coast Poly
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballina
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1550m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1625m
2: 1-0-0
Going Soft
15: 1-2-2
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
12: 1-0-2
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 25% better than Career Avg.
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 6%
Jockey Booking
Positive
Luke Rolls 36% above market expected in L100 Rides
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 41%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Unable to make an impression in rain affected going at Gold Coast. Handles all conditions. Has some claims.
ILB
Odds of $14.00 and faded to finish 6th last run at Gold Coast. Place claims at best.
RP
A while since his last success; finished just behind Caracoron when sixth at Gold Coast over 1m3f (handicap) last month; easy to oppose as this could be a hot race.
RSIS
Started 13/1 and faded to finish 6th last start at Gold Coast.
Career
56: 1-4-2
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
4: 0-0-1
Second-up
3: 0-1-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Gatton
15: 0-4-0
Track Kilcoy
1: 0-0-0
Track Emerald
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
5: 0-0-1
Distance 1590m
1: 0-0-0
Going Firm
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
30: 1-2-1
Going Heavy
3: 0-0-1
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 2%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 37%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 10%
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
Backup
Positive
Racing again inside one week
Out Of Form
Negative
Needs to try and find some form
AAP
On a short back-up. Largely struggled in his post maiden runs. Unable to make an impression in choppy conditions at Ballina. Others with stronger claims.
ILB
On a quick back up. Started $21.00 and fairly underwhelming when 6th last time at Ballina and down in distance. Struggling this campaign with no placings from 6 attempts. Prefer in an easier race.
RP
Managed just one success in his career to date; last of six when close behind Zweig last Monday (Ballina) upped to 1m5f; this looks a fair heat so others make more appeal.
RSIS
Racing on a quick back up. Odds of 20/1 and subpar when 6th last run at Ballina and dropping back to a shorter trip. Yet to fire in recent runs.