Shortest win price
Aristocratic Girl (8)
1.90
Ipswich: Aristocratic Girl jumps off the page — our tips! Welcome to Ipswich for the Crowne Real Estate Geoff Paulsen Mdn Plate over 1100m on a Soft 7 track under overcast skies, set to jump at 2:44 pm AEDT. The win market has Aristocratic Girl heading the list, closely followed by English Conqueror, Texas, and Pony Abbott rounding out the early fancies in the betting order.
The numbers say Aristocratic Girl rates a real chance, backed by a hot jockey and trainer combination boasting an impressive eighty-seven percent outperformance of market expectations, plus proven track form with two placings from two attempts here and a solid rating of 100. English Conqueror also demands respect from barrier three for Jesse Townsend, returning fresh after trialling well with rider Aidan Keeley bringing strong recent form to the saddle. Texas is drawn to get a soft run on the pace from barrier two, looking to bounce back after battling away at this venue last time out.
The speed maps show English Conqueror looking to take up the running from the front, while Aristocratic Girl sits right on the pace alongside Texas and Bar Star to use that early speed advantage on this circuit. Further down the order, debutant Pony Abbott brings encouraging trial form with a pair of runner-up finishes including the latest at Doomben, making this race a fascinating maiden contest where several key chances line up with genuine claims.
Shortest win price
Aristocratic Girl (8)
1.90
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offpace
Onpace
Firststart
Leader
English Conqueror · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 19% better than Career Avg.
Goulburn · Positive
Hot Trainer
Greg Ryan in good form, out performing market 25%
Texas · Negative
Jockey Booking
Georgina Cartwright current POT is 56% below Career Avg.
Bar Star · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -24% POT in their L100 Races
Career
10: 0-3-2
Rating · IRD
92
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
2: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Hawkesbury
1: 0-0-0
Track Kembla Grange
2: 0-1-0
Track Warwick
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
6: 0-2-1
Distance 1350m
3: 0-1-1
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 0-2-1
Going Heavy
2: 0-1-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-1
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 19% better than Career Avg.
Key Rider
Positive
Aidan Keeley 38% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot Jockey
Positive
Aidan Keeley in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 38%
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
AAP
Resuming (19-weeks). Capable fresh and trialled well for return. Shapes as a rough place prospect fresh.
ILB
Resuming after a spell. Competed in a tight contest last start around here and form has been improving over recent runs. Expecting to settle positively. Dropping in distance. Could take this out.
RP
Beaten only narrowly over 6½f here (maiden) in July; seems to have stepped up on previous form the last twice but yet to open his account after ten starts; back from an absence here; regularly been coming up a bit short lately so easy enough to take on.
RSIS
Racing fresh after a break. Missed by a narrow margin last run at this track and demonstrating upward trajectory in recent races. Displays good tactical pace. Definite winning chance.
Career
2: 0-1-0
Rating · IRD
76
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Eagle Farm
1: 0-0-0
Track Gold Coast Poly
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1540m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-1-0
Hot Trainer
Positive
Greg Ryan in good form, out performing market 25%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
AAP
Set tempo, given windburn by winner but boxed on at Gold Coast Poly at his second race start. Drops to shorter trip. Harder to warm to here.
ILB
Felt the pinch late when 2nd beaten by 3 3/4L last time at Gold Coast Poly but will be dropping in distance. Priced to finish behind most.
RP
Ran well to finish second at 40-1 over 7½f at Gold Coast (maiden) last month.
RSIS
Solid run on the pace before weakening to finish 2nd last time at Gold Coast Poly but will be down in distance.
Career
7: 0-1-1
Rating · IRD
90
Speed map
Leader
First-up
2: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Hawkesbury
1: 0-0-0
Track Ipswich
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
4: 0-1-1
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
4: 0-1-1
Going Soft
3: 0-0-0
Jockey Booking
Negative
Georgina Cartwright current POT is 56% below Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 60% in L100 rides
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
AAP
Last assignment this trip when handily placed but lacked the necessary pick-up and battled to line this venue. Drawn to get a soft run. Capable of making an impact.
ILB
At $3.40 tired in the late stages of the race when 4th last time at this venue and has a positive alley. Won't be far away during the run. Good prospects.
RP
Not far behind Field Of Clans when fourth in a handicap last month; seven-race maiden though does have a second place to his name but form has been a bit up and down of late; may have to settle for supporting role as this could be a hot race; also engaged in race 3 at Gold Coast.
RSIS
Started 12/5 and was found wanting late when 4th last time here and gets a favourable stall. Should race on the pace. Good chance of taking this out.
Career
2: 0-1-0
Rating · IRD
93
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
1: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Gold Coast
1: 0-0-0
Track Gatton
1: 0-1-0
Distance 860m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-1-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -24% POT in their L100 Races
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 10%
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Sent out $16 when never got into the race at Gold Coast at second outing. Others with more appeal.
ILB
Was $16.00 and came in 6th last start at Gold Coast. Can show a better performance this time. Forward showing expected.
RP
Finished sixth but wasn't beaten too far (4½l) over 5f at Gold Coast (maiden) last month; easy to oppose.
RSIS
Started 15/1 and finished 6th last run at Gold Coast. Looking for an improved run. Good chance in this.
Career
5: 0-0-1
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Leader
First-up
2: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Lismore
1: 0-0-0
Track Gold Coast Poly
1: 0-0-0
Track Doomben
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1150m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1420m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 0-0-1
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start
AAP
On pace but folded up quickly at Lismore over longer assignment. Switching to 1100m. Only for exotics.
ILB
Started $4.20 and finished 5th last time at Lismore and coming back in distance.
RP
Held in fifth at Lismore over 7f (maiden) 27 days ago; some promise; closest he has come to winning after five starts was a third; this is competitive and one to tread carefully with; also engaged in race 3 at Gold Coast.
RSIS
Odds of 10/3 and ran 5th last run at Lismore and back in trip.
Rating · IRD
85
Speed map
Firststart
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 94%
Debutant
Positive
First race day appearance
AAP
Trials (2:0-2-0). Knocked on the door in both trials, latest at Doomben. Betting may provide a clearer picture.
ILB
3yo first starter by Wooded for Kelly Schweida. Fitter for placing in multiple trials. Market as guide.
RP
First start under rules for this son of Wooded; should be involved as some good aspects to his profile.
RSIS
3yo debutant by Wooded for Kelly Schweida. Placed in all trials. Keep your eye on the market.
Career
2: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
73
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Gold Coast
1: 0-0-0
Track Ipswich
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 800m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 6%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 30%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Awkward Draw
Negative
May find this draw awkward
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Returns for second campaign (16-weeks). Prepared for return with 3 trials. Will want to improve.
ILB
First run back from a break. Was $81.00 and weakened to finish 10th last time at Gold Coast. Unplaced in multiple barrier trials. Can't back with any confidence.
RP
Finished last of ten over 5f at Gold Coast (maiden) four months ago; others appeal more.
RSIS
First run back from a break. Started at 80/1 and was well beaten when 10th last time at Gold Coast. Unplaced in all trials.
Career
11: 0-2-4
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Leader
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Doomben
4: 0-1-1
Track Ipswich
2: 0-1-1
Track CurrentTrack
2: 0-1-1
Distance 1110m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
5: 0-1-2
Distance 800m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
4: 0-0-3
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
6: 0-2-1
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 87%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 1
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Against own sex when handily placed and worked home soundly at Eagle Farm. Placed two from two here. Can have a major say.
ILB
Odds of $10.00 and gave ground when 4th last run at Eagle Farm and drawn well. Displays good tactical speed. Expected to be competitive.
RP
Yet to open her account after 11 starts; not disgraced when fourth at Eagle Farm over 6f (maiden) last month; not been able to get her head in front lately so has some questions to answer.
RSIS
Started 9/1 and to tire late when 4th last start at Eagle Farm and has minimal work to do from the stall. Has shown early pace in races to date. Has to be in the finish.
Rating · IRD
20
AAP
Sent out $9 when never got into the race in heavy ground at Toowoomba. Long time a maiden and hard to trust.
ILB
Started at $9.00 and made up ground when 5th last start at Toowoomba on a heavy track.
RSIS
Started 8/1 and made some ground when 5th last time at Toowoomba.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Onpace
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
Racing Strongly
Positive
Racing in great shape
AAP
Second campaign (22-weeks). Trial was pleasing. Not out of it fresh.
ILB
Resumes after a spell. Ran on strongly when 2nd beaten by just short of 3 1/2L last run at Sunshine Coast and good career start. Coming to a new trainer.
RSIS
Resuming after a break. Did well to finish 2nd beaten by nearly 3 1/2L last start at Sunshine Coast and promising career start. Change in trainer but down in trip.
Career
1: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Ipswich
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 10%
Increased Dist
Positive
Distance rise from last start
Long Break
Negative
Resumes from a 379 day break (> 300 days)
AAP
Resuming after a (54-weeks) spell. Ex Jessica Kuhn. Trained here now. A long way off them this track on debut at cricket score odds. Not knocked around in recent tickover trial at Ipswich.
ILB
First run back from a 54 week break. Odds of $201.00 and faded to finish 10th last start at this track but having second career run. Very unlikely to shake these.
RP
Beaten 16l when last on her debut over C&D at 200-1 last October; representing new stable today; long absence to overcome; needs to make above-average progress.
RSIS
First run back from a 54 week break. Started 200/1 and gave away some ground when 10th last start at the track but having second race start.
Career
2: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Warwick
1: 0-0-0
Track Gold Coast Poly
1: 0-0-0
Distance 800m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1150m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
AAP
Settled close but dropped right out at Gold Coast Poly at second start. Needs major improvement to figure.
ILB
Gave away some ground when 9th last start at Gold Coast Poly.
RP
Last of nine in a handicap 11 days ago (Gold Coast) upped to this trip; respected.
RSIS
Faded away to finish 9th last start at Gold Coast Poly.
Career
2: 0-1-0
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
2: 0-1-0
Track Ipswich
1: 0-1-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-1-0
Track Rockhampton
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1050m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-1-0
Going Soft
2: 0-1-0
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
AAP
Was a valiant but vanquished second in the Mdn this course for new stable. Improving sort who shapes well here.
ILB
Was outmatched at the end of the race when 2nd beaten by 2L last start here.
RP
Gave good account to finish runner-up on debut for this handler last month in a handicap; should be in the mix.
RSIS
Even though peaking on the run still grabbed 2nd last start here.
Rating · IRD
80
Speed map
Firststart
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Watch Betting
Negative
If supported, follow in
AAP
Trials (1:1-0-0). Sent a positive signal with a solid trial performance at Deagon. Still, tough introduction here and would need a clear market push.
ILB
3yo by All Too Hard having initial appearance for Jimmy Downes. Won a barrier trial at Deagon on Oct 30th. Watch the betting.
RP
Sibling of Care Taker (6f winner); sire's stock can be smart performers; needs to be respected as some good aspects to her profile.
RSIS
Jimmy Downes 3yo by All Too Hard having first race appearance. Success in a trial at Deagon on Oct 30th.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Offpace
Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 56% lower than Career Avg.
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 60% in L100 rides
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
First-up (31-weeks). Better for the spell and readied via a Doomben trial. Nicely placed back in a provincial maiden. Stacks up well fresh.
ILB
Racing fresh after a break of 31 weeks. At $19.00 didn't attack the line when 6th last start at Doomben.
RSIS
Fresh today after a 31 week break. Started 18/1 and struggled with the pace when 6th last run at Doomben.