Shortest win price
Stay Humble (7)
3.60
The Bet365 William Thomson Dunkeld Cup hits the turf at 4:41 pm AEDT on Saturday over 1800 metres on soft going. It's an open handicap for horses aged three and older, and the win market is led by Stay Humble, followed by Navy King, Dubai Watch, and New York Hurricane. Three leaders shape up in this race—Navy King, Stay Humble, and Flying Basil—while Any Luck and Gregolimo will hunt a one-paced profile from mid-field. That early group will give the trailing runners something to chase on a Soft 5 track under overcast skies.
Stay Humble sits shortest after wins at Geelong over similar distances, including a maiden victory on the Soft 5 at 1765 metres just recently. The form reads solid, though a strike rate of just 8% from the Maher stable gives some pause. Navy King, next in the market, showed promise before fading late when prominent at Hamilton on a Soft 5 over 1600 metres, and the comment suggests he can have a major say in this company. Dubai Watch, the third line of betting, won at Geelong over 1700 metres and is now stretching to 1800 metres after finding the back half at Flemington over 2000 metres. New York Hurricane, at fourth pick, shapes as each-way value according to the notes—a seasoned performer sent out at $51 when never getting into it at Flemington over this same journey.
Switch Hit rates a real chance here. The runner posted the fastest finishing sectionals last start and comes from a stable outperforming market expectations by a massive 380%. Scalextrics also clocked quick closing sectionals and has early good form, though the jockey-trainer combo is under heat. At the back of the speed groups, Overpriced runs from off-pace and carries the best jockey booking metric in the race—the combination is outperforming expectations by 94%—so there's genuine appeal in stretching the odds for a late charge across the Soft 5.
Shortest win price
Stay Humble (7)
3.60
Most career wins
Flying Basil
14-3-5 from 56 starts
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offmidfield
Midfield
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Any Luck · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 20% better than Career Avg.
New York Hurricane · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 45% in Last 100 Rides
Gregolimo · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Navy King · Negative
Rider
Negative rider change today
Career
52: 8-10-8
Rating · IRD
80
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
4: 1-0-0
Second-up
3: 0-1-0
Third-up
3: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
2: 1-0-0
Track Bordertown
1: 0-0-0
Track Warrnambool
5: 1-1-0
Track Casterton
3: 0-0-1
Distance 1800m
7: 0-3-1
Distance 1880m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 2150m
2: 0-0-1
Going Soft
20: 6-4-4
Going Good
22: 0-4-4
Going Heavy
10: 2-2-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 20% better than Career Avg.
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 21% POT in L100 Runners
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
AAP
Failed to threaten at Horsham over longer assignment at longer odds. Can go forward.
ILB
Started at $26.00 and gave away some ground when 8th last run at Horsham. Should jump out and bowl along. Respect the betting.
RP
Beaten 8l over 1m2½f at Horsham (handicap) four weeks ago; this is her grade; might have a say if replicating her best form.
RSIS
At 25/1 folded up in the straight when 8th last time at Horsham. Has good tactical pace and will be nicely positioned.
Career
40: 4-6-2
Rating · IRD
93
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
8: 0-1-0
Second-up
7: 0-1-0
Third-up
5: 1-1-1
Fourth-up
5: 1-0-0
Track Moonee Valley
3: 0-2-0
Track Sandown
4: 2-0-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
26: 3-5-2
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
12: 1-1-0
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 7% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 15%
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Gap In Runs
Negative
Not raced for 35 days
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Courageous effort in the 3yo+ (Bm80) at Caulfield when second-up. All the better, can figure.
ILB
Produced an eye catching run when 2nd last start at Caulfield and stepping down to a lower level. Gets the perfect alley.
RP
Not beaten far when runner-up at 66-1 over 1m½f at Caulfield (handicap) last month; latest effort was encouraging so has a shout.
RSIS
Did well to finish 2nd last time at Caulfield and taking on easier opposition. Has minimal work to do from the draw.
Career
52: 8-10-5
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
7: 0-1-1
Second-up
6: 0-1-0
Third-up
6: 0-3-1
Fourth-up
5: 2-1-0
Track Caulfield
6: 0-0-0
Track Moonee Valley
4: 0-2-0
Track Camperdown
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1765m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
3: 1-0-0
Distance 1412m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
33: 4-7-4
Going Heavy
3: 1-0-0
Going Soft
15: 3-3-1
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 45% in Last 100 Rides
Jockey Booking
Positive
Jack Hill 51% above market expected in L100 Rides
Key Jockey
Positive
Jack Hill winning at 30% POT in last 100 rides
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Dry Spell
Negative
Recent form uninspiring
Weight Increase
Negative
Rises 5kg now
AAP
Seasoned performer. Sent out $51 when never got into the race at Flemington over this journey. Each-way.
ILB
Disappointing effort when 9th last start at Flemington. Should improve here and matched against less formidable competition. Has a nice turn of foot. Going up in weight. Will be competitive.
RP
Not always shown an awful lot since winning a handicap at Wangaratta in February and recent form leaves something to be desired; finished ninth, beaten 7l, at Flemington 11 days ago in a Listed handicap; might find this company a little easier but he can be taken on.
RSIS
Clearly outclassed when 9th last start at Flemington. Should improve and lining up against easier rivals. Possesses good closing pace. Has more weight to carry. Will show up at the business end.
Rating · IRD
20
AAP
Off pace, no response and trudged home at Morphettville over today's trip. Needs to lift to figure.
ILB
Didn't find the line when 10th last start at Morphettville but will find this grade more suitable.
RSIS
Faded away to finish 10th last start at Morphettville but up against a less competitive field.
Career
40: 5-8-6
Rating · IRD
93
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
8: 0-2-0
Second-up
7: 2-0-2
Third-up
6: 0-4-0
Fourth-up
4: 0-1-2
Track La Teste De Buch
2: 0-0-0
Track Flemington
6: 0-2-0
Track Mornington
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1800m
3: 0-1-0
Distance 1950m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2100m
2: 1-0-1
Going Heavy
2: 1-1-0
Going Soft
13: 1-0-2
Going Good
25: 3-7-4
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Down In Weight
Positive
Drops 6kg from LS run
AAP
Broke a long run of outs when winning at Kyneton when second-up. Stripping fitter, has claims for a repeat.
ILB
Showed promise when winning by 1 3/4L last time at Kyneton but facing stiffer opposition. Should muster plenty of early toe. Carrying less weight this time. Can win this.
RP
Halted losing run over 1m1f at Kyneton (handicap) last week, scoring by just under 2l; despite that Kyneton success, has some questions to answer.
RSIS
Finished on top by 1 3/4L last start at Kyneton on a heavy surface but competing at a higher class. Expecting to settle positively. Gets a reduction in weight. Definitely worth considering.
Career
27: 5-3-1
Rating · IRD
90
Speed map
Leader
First-up
5: 0-2-0
Second-up
4: 1-0-0
Third-up
4: 1-0-1
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Flemington
3: 1-0-0
Track Bendigo
1: 0-0-0
Track Hamilton
3: 2-0-0
Distance 2200m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 1-1-0
Distance 1200m
2: 1-0-0
Going Good
13: 2-1-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-1-0
Going Soft
13: 3-1-0
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 38% POT in L100 Runners
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Gap In Runs
Negative
Not raced for 35 days
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Weight Drop
Positive
Drops 4.5kg from LS run
AAP
Prominent before fading late at Hamilton. Can have a major say.
ILB
Was $10.00 and tired in the closing stages of the race when 5th last start at Hamilton but facing formidable opponents. Dropping weight. Strong claims in this.
RP
Useful at this level; not disgraced when fifth over 1m at Hamilton (handicap) last month; hard to ignore if duplicating the form of his most recent win.
RSIS
Started 9/1 and was outsprinted late when 5th last time at Hamilton but up against a higher level of opposition. Has the pace to overcome the wide stall. Solid prospects.
Career
20: 3-4-5
Rating · IRD
93
Speed map
Leader
First-up
4: 1-0-1
Second-up
3: 0-0-1
Third-up
3: 1-0-1
Fourth-up
3: 0-2-0
Track Flemington
1: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
5: 2-2-1
Track Mornington
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1765m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
5: 1-0-2
Distance 1400m
5: 0-1-1
Going Good
6: 1-2-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-1
Going Soft
13: 2-2-3
Trainer SR
Negative
Ciaron Maher striking at just 8%
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 38%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 58% Profit on Turnover
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Honest
Positive
Finishing in the money lately
Down In Weight
Positive
Drops 6kg from LS run
AAP
Edged out late after making the pace at Geelong when supported. Makes a strong case in this company.
ILB
Missed by a narrow margin last start at Geelong but racing against tougher rivals. Has the early speed to burn across from the wide alley. Very tidy performer.
RP
Normally pretty consistent; favourite and not beaten far at Geelong over 1m½f (handicap) 24 days ago, a race won by the reopposing Dubai Watch.
RSIS
Threw down a serious challenge last start at Geelong but facing formidable opponents. Has the necessary pace to overcome the wide draw. Showing positive results in recent runs. Could go close.
Career
25: 5-1-3
Rating · IRD
82
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-1
Track Echuca
3: 0-0-2
Track Geelong
5: 3-1-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1590m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1800m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1412m
1: 0-0-1
Going Soft
14: 3-1-2
Going Good
10: 2-0-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Hot Trainer
Positive
Vincent Hall in good form, out performing market 109%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 15%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 2
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature
AAP
Raced in back half and never likely at Flemington. Switching to 1800m. A few runs under his belt this campaign, right in the mix.
ILB
Started at $91.00 and didn't attack the line when 16th last start at Flemington but will try to take advantage of the alley. Not without a chance.
RP
Finished towards the rear of 18 (Flemington) last week upped to 1m2f; easy to oppose with a number of his rivals in good nick.
RSIS
Was 90/1 and gave away some ground when 16th last start at Flemington but will try to take advantage of the draw.
Career
56: 14-3-5
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Leader
First-up
9: 0-0-1
Second-up
6: 0-0-0
Third-up
6: 2-0-1
Fourth-up
5: 3-0-1
Track Sale
4: 0-0-0
Track Woolamai
2: 1-1-0
Track Bairnsdale
3: 2-0-1
Distance 1628m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1608m
2: 1-1-0
Going Good
37: 9-2-4
Going Heavy
5: 0-0-0
Going Soft
13: 5-1-1
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 8% POT in L100 Runners
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Well beaten LS
Negative
Not competitive last run
Up In Dist
Positive
Racing at a more suitable distance
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature
AAP
Settled back and didn't come on at Bendigo off long spell. Others with more appeal.
ILB
Was $201.00 and average performance when 14th last run at Bendigo but going back up in trip. Has the necessary speed to mitigate the wide draw. Won't find this easy.
RP
A proven winner with a career wins-runs record of 14-57 but largely disappointing since successful in a handicap at Great Western in January; last of 14 at Bendigo over 7f (handicap) two weeks ago; this looks a decent race so easy to oppose.
RSIS
Was 200/1 and below expectations when 14th last time at Bendigo but coming back up in distance. The wide stall shouldn't be a problem with plenty of early pace.
Career
9: 3-1-2
Rating · IRD
72
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
1: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Moe
3: 1-1-1
Track Flemington
1: 0-0-0
Track Mornington
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1500m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1600m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1614m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
4: 3-1-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-2
Jockey Booking
Negative
Sheridan Clarke current POT is 25% below Career Avg.
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 94%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 48% POT in L100 Runners
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 34% in L100 rides
Consecutive Wins
Positive
Has strung together a few races in a row
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Down In Weight
Positive
Drops 5.5kg from LS run
AAP
On target for hat-trick. Terrific from the wide gate at Sale. Can make his presence felt again.
ILB
Was much too speedy in front when winning by a margin of 1/2L last run at Sale on a heavy rated track but competing in a higher grade. Others are better.
RP
Gained narrow success in a handicap at Sale three weeks ago; aiming to complete a hat-trick; every chance.
RSIS
Assumed control from the start when winning by a margin of 1/2L last run at Sale on a heavy track but testing ability against stronger contenders.
Career
36: 7-3-3
Rating · IRD
80
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
5: 1-0-0
Second-up
4: 0-0-1
Third-up
4: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-1
Track Randwick Kensington
3: 0-0-0
Track Nowra
1: 1-0-0
Track Taree
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
7: 2-0-1
Distance 1450m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1550m
4: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
7: 3-0-0
Going Soft
13: 3-1-3
Going Good
16: 1-2-0
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Racing well for new stable.Knuckled down for second at Wycheproof over this journey when fancied. Well into preparation now.
ILB
Ran on strongly when 2nd beaten by 3 1/4L last time at Wycheproof but facing a stronger class. Might have to make up considerable ground. Keep safe.
RP
Behind Switch Hit when better was expected (went off 5-4, Wycheproof) 14 days ago; the Taige Weir operation is running hot currently.
RSIS
Caught the eye when 2nd beaten by 3 1/4L last start at Wycheproof but racing against tougher rivals. Gets back and needs luck.
Career
23: 4-5-2
Rating · IRD
75
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-1-0
Third-up
2: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
3: 0-0-2
Track Kilmore
2: 0-2-0
Track Warrnambool
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1400m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1414m
2: 0-1-0
Going Good
10: 3-2-0
Going Heavy
4: 0-1-1
Going Soft
9: 1-2-1
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 380%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 15%
Margin LS
Positive
Won by a big margin last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Won after racing back and let down powerfully at Wycheproof over this trip. Super fit from racing, can show up again at fair odds.
ILB
Won by a huge margin of 3 1/4L last start at Wycheproof but testing ability against stronger contenders. Tracking very well this preparation. Likely to get back in the field. Facing a difficult task.
RP
Good winner at Wycheproof last month.
RSIS
Thrashed the field when winning by 3 1/4L last run at Wycheproof but matched against a stronger field. Racing consistently in recent runs. Likely to get back in the field.