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Seymour (VIC) horses tips & previews

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Seymour (VIC), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Thu 12 Nov, 11:00 am AEDT

Meetings · Thu, 12 NovSeymour (VIC)Change

Race 3 — Kelly's Country Homes Mdn Plate 1411m · jumps

Race preview

Welcome to Seymour for Kelly's Country Homes Mdn Plate over 1411m on a good four track with fine weather expected for this 4:00 pm AEDT jump. Looking at the early win market, Carnevale leads the charge right at the top of the order, closely followed by Tale Of Genji, Ciphered, and Power Of The Moon rounding out the early fancies in this three-year-old maiden showdown.

Carnevale jumps off the page with solid form under the belt for stable Ben, Will & Jd Hayes, coming off a strong second at Swan Hill over 1200m where the runner kept coming to the line. The numbers say the added journey here should really assist. Ciphered for trainer Gavin Bedggood also rates a real chance, having made the frame at Kyneton last time out over 1218m, showing enough tenacity to suggest this trip suits.

Further down the line, Tale Of Genji brings a big tick after laying down the fastest overall finishing sectionals last start when running third at Moe over 1200m on debut. With speed maps showing Ciphered pushing forward as the leader while Carnevale and Little Gangster sit on pace, expect a cracking battle all the way down the straight. The numbers say these key hopes are right in the mix.

Race notes

  • 3Y MDN-SW,3yo,Maiden
  • GOOD4
  • Fine
  • 11 runners

Shortest win price

Carnevale (2)

1.60

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Backmarker

  • 7Belle Fille

Offpace

  • 1Aquafy
  • 12Tale Of Genji

Onpace

  • 5Little Gangster
  • 10Nerves Of Steel
  • 2Carnevale

Firststart

  • 4Exultant
  • 6Power Of The Moon
  • 8Five Roses
  • 11Stormin' Angel

Leader

  • 3Ciphered

  • Aquafy · Positive

    Hot J/T Combo

    Combo are out performing market expectations by 67%

  • Carnevale · Negative

    Rider

    Negative rider change today

  • Ciphered · Positive

    Hot J/T Combo

    Combo are out performing market expectations by 97%

  • Exultant · Negative

    Market Watch

    Keep eye on betting moves

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace
1AquafyJ: Teodore Nugent·T: Simon Zahra858kg1 11: 0-0-0$91.00$7.50

Career

1: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

76

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey40%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating40%
  • Closing Speed40%

Record

  • First-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Wangaratta

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1300m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Good

    1: 0-0-0

Last starts

  1. 11Wangaratta1300m26 Oct 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD410.5L

Insights

  • Hot J/T Combo

    Positive

    Combo are out performing market expectations by 67%

  • Hot Trainer

    Positive

    Simon Zahra in good form, out performing market 65%

  • Trainer ROI

    Positive

    Runners from this stable currently going at 44% POT in L100 Runners

  • Maps Well

    Positive

    Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 29%

  • Early Splits

    Positive

    Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit

  • Gave ground LS

    Negative

    Faded towards the finish last time out

  • Class Rise

    Negative

    Racing in stronger company

  • Imprv Needed

    Negative

    Would need to lift here to feature

Comments

AAP

Had a low-key debut at Wangaratta 26 Oct. Better for it. Place hope only.

ILB

At $13.00 weakened under pressure when 11th last run at Wangaratta but having second race start. Looking elsewhere today.

RP

Beaten 11l when 11th on his debut at Wangaratta two weeks ago; has a bit to find with Nerves Of Steel (seventh) on that running; could improve although needs to.

RSIS

Started 12/1 and didn't attack the line when 11th last run at Wangaratta but fitter for debut run.

2CarnevaleJ: Michael Dee·T: Ben, Will & Jd Hayes458kg4 7 2 3 24: 0-1-1$1.60$1.06

Career

4: 0-1-1

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey20%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
  • Early Speed20%
  • Rating100%
  • Closing Speed100%

Record

  • First-up

    3: 0-0-1

  • Second-up

    1: 0-1-0

  • Track Flemington

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Seymour

    1: 0-0-1

  • Track CurrentTrack

    1: 0-0-1

  • Distance 1200m

    3: 0-1-1

  • Distance 1000m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Good

    1: 0-1-0

  • Going Heavy

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Soft

    2: 0-0-1

Last starts

  1. 2Swan Hill1200m27 Oct 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · GOOD40.5L
  2. 3Seymour1200m11 Oct 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · SOFT55L
  3. 2Caulfield Heath800m1 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)1.5L
  4. 7Caulfield1200m30 May 2026 · 2Y HCP · HEAVY85.5L
  5. 4Flemington1000m4 Nov 2025 · 2yo · SOFT54.1L

Insights

  • Rider

    Negative

    Negative rider change today

  • Profitable Trainer

    Positive

    Stable runners going at 26% POT in L100 Runners

  • Ran On Hard LS

    Positive

    Ran on well last start

  • Track Exp

    Positive

    Knows this track well

  • Class Rise

    Negative

    Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Kept coming at Swan Hill and there have been winners come out of that race. Added journey should assist. Has a big say here.

ILB

Finished with intent when 2nd last start at Swan Hill and on an upward trajectory in recent races. Has not missed the placings this campaign in 2 attempts. Stamps its reason for consideration.

RP

Went down by half a length at Swan Hill over 6f (maiden) two weeks ago; has to prove this longer trip is what he wants and unlikely to trouble the principals.

RSIS

Was strong late when 2nd beaten by 1/2L last time at Swan Hill and on an upward trajectory in recent races. Nice enough type to be supported.

3CipheredJ: Jett Stanley·T: Gavin Bedggood258kg3 7 32: 0-0-1$8.50$2.15

Career

2: 0-0-1

Rating · IRD

84

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey80%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating60%
  • Closing Speed80%

Record

  • First-up

    2: 0-0-1

  • Track Pakenham

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Kyneton

    1: 0-0-1

  • Distance 1200m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1218m

    1: 0-0-1

  • Going Good

    1: 0-0-1

  • Going Heavy

    1: 0-0-0

Last starts

  1. 3Kyneton1218m20 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD33.4L
  2. 7Pakenham1200m8 May 2026 · MDN-SW · HEAVY810.7L
  3. 3Caulfield Heath850m23 Apr 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)1.5L

Insights

  • Hot J/T Combo

    Positive

    Combo are out performing market expectations by 97%

  • Profitable Trainer

    Positive

    Stable runners going at 39% POT in L100 Runners

  • Fast Early

    Positive

    Sectionals suggest goes hard early

  • Drawn In

    Positive

    Suited drawn down low

  • Well Placed

    Positive

    Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Odds of $6 when made the frame at Kyneton 20 Oct. Danger.

ILB

Good effort to run 3rd beaten by nearly 3 1/2L last run at Kyneton and can find a nice position from the draw. Likely to be well placed early. Could be in the mix.

RP

Respectable effort to finish third over 6f at Kyneton (maiden) last month.

RSIS

Ran on strongly when 3rd beaten by almost 3 1/2L last start at Kyneton and has a good draw. Should muster plenty of early pace. Not at all out of this race.

4ExultantJ: Lachlan Neindorf·T: M Price & M Kent Jnr658kg–$23.00$3.70

Rating · IRD

79

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

  • Jockey20%
  • Trainer80%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
  • Early Speed50%
  • Rating40%
  • Closing Speed50%

Insights

  • Market Watch

    Negative

    Keep eye on betting moves

Comments

AAP

$80k NZB Karaka yearling. Out of a sister to champion More Joyous. Hasn't impressed at the jumpouts but commends respect on breeding.

ILB

Debutant 3yo by Turn Me Loose for Mick Price & Michael Kent (Jnr). Follow the money.

RP

New Zealander bred; related to Yorokobi, winning form over 7f-1m2f; represents a stable with a strong record here with newcomers; strong contender as some good aspects to his profile.

RSIS

Racing as a debutant 3yo by Turn Me Loose for Mick Price & Michael Kent (Jnr).

5Little GangsterJ: Luke Nolen·T: Shawn Mathrick758kg11 3 8 6 65: 0-0-1$61.00$5.50

Career

5: 0-0-1

Rating · IRD

75

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey20%
  • Trainer80%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed20%
  • Rating40%
  • Closing Speed60%

Record

  • First-up

    2: 0-0-1

  • Second-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Third-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Fourth-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Sandown

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Mildura

    2: 0-0-1

  • Track Echuca

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1000m

    3: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1008m

    1: 0-0-1

  • Distance 1200m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Good

    4: 0-0-0

  • Going Soft

    1: 0-0-1

Last starts

  1. 6Warrnambool1000m29 Oct 2026 · 3UP MDN SW · GOOD49.15L
  2. 6Echuca1000m19 Oct 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · GOOD45.31L
  3. 8Mildura1200m6 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD48.15L
  4. 3Mildura1008m5 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT61.1L
  5. 11Sandown1000m11 Mar 2026 · 2Y HCP · GOOD413.8L

Insights

  • Jockey Booking

    Negative

    Luke Nolen current POT is 54% below Career Avg.

  • Jockey Booking

    Negative

    Less suitable jockey engaged

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races

  • Rider Poor SR

    Negative

    Jockey underperforming market expectations by 63% in L100 rides

  • Primed

    Positive

    Fitter here racing on a quick back up

  • Well Placed

    Positive

    Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Failed to threaten (wide barrier) at Warrnambool at longer odds. Fringe place hope at best.

ILB

Backing up quickly. At $61.00 finished 5th last start at Mornington but racing over extra ground. Should jump out and bowl along. Has ability but this is challenging.

RP

Was held in fifth over 5f at Mornington (maiden) on Tuesday; some promise; closest he has come to winning after six starts was a third; Luke Nolen a notable booking; others appeal more as running in what looks to be a hot race.

RSIS

Backs up quickly. At 60/1 came in 5th last run at Mornington but facing a rise in trip. Shows good early pace.

6Power Of The MoonJ: Declan Bates·T: Archie Alexander1158kg6$6.50$1.80

Rating · IRD

78

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

  • Jockey20%
  • Trainer80%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo40%
  • Early Speed50%
  • Rating40%
  • Closing Speed50%

Last starts

  1. 6Colac800m22 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)4L

Insights

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -22% POT in their L100 Races

  • Market Watch

    Negative

    Keep eye on betting moves

Comments

AAP

Trials (1:0-0-0). Full brother to city winner and stakes performed Somewhere. Nice second in latest Mortlake jumpout. This trip looks perfect for his debut.

ILB

3yo by Puissance De Lune having first race appearance for trainer Archie Alexander. Watch betting.

RP

Already a gelding; first start under rules for this son of Puissance de Lune; faces fairly tall order so easy enough to oppose.

RSIS

Archie Alexander 3yo by Puissance De Lune having first race start.

7Belle FilleJ: Lachlan King·T: Claire Patterson156kg8 82: 0-0-0$81.00$7.50

Career

2: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

76

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey100%
  • Trainer60%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
  • Early Speed20%
  • Rating40%
  • Closing Speed40%

Record

  • First-up

    2: 0-0-0

  • Track Mornington

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Sale

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1200m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1213m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Good

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Heavy

    1: 0-0-0

Last starts

  1. 8Mornington1200m1 Nov 2026 · 3YF MDN-SW · GOOD48.5L
  2. 8Sale1213m9 July 2026 · 2Y MDN-SW · HEAVY96.8L

Insights

  • Jockey ROI

    Positive

    Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 42% in Last 100 Rides

  • Trainer Career

    Negative

    Trainer Career S/R is 7%

  • Trainer Recent

    Negative

    Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 25%

  • Hot Jockey

    Positive

    Lachlan King in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 53%

  • Gave ground LS

    Negative

    Faded towards the finish last time out

  • Draw Suits

    Positive

    Well drawn inside

  • Class Rise

    Negative

    Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Failed to threaten at Mornington at second appearance at healthy odds. Really needs to raise her game.

ILB

At $21.00 folded up in the straight when 8th last run at Mornington but drawn well. Might be ridden for luck. Rough hope.

RP

Missed the frame (beaten 9l into eighth) over 6f at Mornington (maiden) 11 days ago; may have to settle for supporting role.

RSIS

Started 20/1 and tailed off to finish 8th last start at Mornington but drawn the rails. Likely to get back in the field.

8Five RosesJ: Luke Currie·T: Ben, Will & Jd Hayes556kg–$21.00$3.70

Rating · IRD

81

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

  • Jockey40%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
  • Early Speed50%
  • Rating40%
  • Closing Speed50%

Insights

  • Profitable Trainer

    Positive

    Stable runners going at 26% POT in L100 Runners

  • Still Learning

    Negative

    No race experience

  • Winkers On

    Positive

    Important gear change of winkers on

Comments

AAP

$60k NZB Karaka yearling. Half to four time winner Macedon Rose. Fifth in latest jumpout and looks a suitable trip to kickoff career.

ILB

Will Ben & Jd Hayes trained 3yo by Fierce Impact having first race start. Keep your eye on the market.

RP

Trainer does well here with debutants; has to be taken seriously as some good aspects to her profile.

RSIS

3yo by Fierce Impact having first race appearance for Will Ben & Jd Hayes.

9LoyaltyScratched11––––

Rating · IRD

20

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

  • Jockey20%
  • Trainer40%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
  • Early Speed50%
  • Rating50%
  • Closing Speed50%

Insights

  • Trainer Recent

    Negative

    Camp struggling with S/R just 9%

  • Trainer Recent

    Negative

    Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 30%

  • Trainer ROI

    Negative

    Trainers runners currently losing 44% Profit on Turnover

  • Debutant

    Positive

    First race day appearance

Comments

AAP

First named foal out of an unraced mare. Fourth in two recent Cranbourne jumpout. Sticky gate but in leading camp.

ILB

On a quick back up. Was $13.00 and struggled when 6th last run at Ballarat but was on debut last time.

RP

Trainer does well here with debutants; nicely bred (by Kingman); rates a likely contender; was entered at Ballarat Wednesday.

RSIS

On a short turnaround. Was 12/1 and appeared lacklustre when 6th last run at Ballarat but having second career run.

10Nerves Of SteelJ: Ryan Houston·T: Simon Zahra356kg13 72: 0-0-0$61.00$6.00

Career

2: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

70

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey60%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo40%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating20%
  • Closing Speed40%

Record

  • First-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Second-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Seymour

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track CurrentTrack

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Wangaratta

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1300m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1200m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Good

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Soft

    1: 0-0-0

Last starts

  1. 7Wangaratta1300m26 Oct 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD44.2L
  2. 13Seymour1200m11 Oct 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · SOFT520.65L

Insights

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -24% POT in their L100 Races

  • Hot Trainer

    Positive

    Simon Zahra in good form, out performing market 65%

  • Trainer ROI

    Positive

    Runners from this stable currently going at 44% POT in L100 Runners

  • Fast Early

    Positive

    Sectionals suggest goes hard early

  • Class Rise

    Negative

    Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Finished well held at Wangaratta at her second race start. Better for race experience and open to progression.

ILB

Jumped at $101.00 and lost ground in the run home when 7th last run at Wangaratta. Has early speed and positions nicely. Highly unlikely to feature here.

RP

Didn't run too badly when out of the frame at Wangaratta (beaten just over 4l) over 6½f (maiden) two weeks ago; may have to settle for supporting role.

RSIS

Was 100/1 and gave away some ground when 7th last run at Wangaratta. Will be pushing for a forward position early.

11Stormin' AngelJ: Patrick Moloney·T: Ben Brisbourne1056kg–$71.00$7.00

Rating · IRD

78

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

  • Jockey100%
  • Trainer60%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
  • Early Speed50%
  • Rating40%
  • Closing Speed50%

Insights

  • Rider SR

    Positive

    Jockey recent POT is 26% better than Career Avg.

  • Trainer Recent

    Negative

    Camp struggling with S/R just 8%

  • Trainer A2E

    Negative

    Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 23%

  • Watch Betting

    Negative

    If supported, follow in

Comments

AAP

Trials (1:0-0-0). $16k purchase. Out of an unraced mare. Third in recent Wodonga jumpout. Leaning to others.

ILB

Initial race appearance 3yo by Harry Angel for Ben Brisbourne. Betting as a guide.

RP

First race for the daughter of Harry Angel; sire capable of getting smart offspring; interesting as some good aspects to her profile.

RSIS

Ben Brisbourne 3yo by Harry Angel on debut.

12Tale Of GenjiJ: Beau Mertens·T: C W Mcdonald956kg31: 0-0-1$5.00$1.55

Career

1: 0-0-1

Rating · IRD

87

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey40%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
  • Early Speed20%
  • Rating60%
  • Closing Speed100%

Record

  • First-up

    1: 0-0-1

  • Track Moe

    1: 0-0-1

  • Distance 1200m

    1: 0-0-1

  • Going Good

    1: 0-0-1

Last starts

  1. 3Moe1200m18 Oct 2026 · 3Y MDN · GOOD31L

Insights

  • Fast Finisher

    Positive

    Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start

  • Trainer ROI

    Positive

    Runners from this stable currently going at 7% POT in L100 Runners

  • Ran On Hard LS

    Positive

    Ran on well last start

  • Raceday Experience

    Positive

    Wiser for debut run

  • Class Rise

    Negative

    Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Wasn't all that far from the action on debut at Moe as an odds drifter 18 Oct. Took valuable lessons and rise in distance should help. Capable of making an impact.

ILB

Ran on when 3rd beaten by 1L last start at Moe and having second career run. Commands respect.

RP

Didn't run too badly on her debut (Moe, 6f) at 11-1 last month; could improve but still hard to see her winning here.

RSIS

Showed a good turn of foot when 3rd last start at Moe and was a debutant last start. Should go close.

Odds correct as at . Odds can change.

Past meetings

  • Sun 11 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 10 races
  • Thu 10 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 8 races