Shortest win price
Ichnusa (12)
1.95
Sandown kicks off at 12:20 pm AEDT with a heavy track underfoot and showers about. The Catanach's Jewellers 150 Years is a benchmark 80 handicap over 2400 metres for three-year-olds and up. Shortest in the win market is Ichnusa, followed by Mr O'Reilly, then Fiorowngood and Dad And Dave rounding out the first four.
Ichnusa rates a real chance on the recent form. The numbers say this one has worked home solidly at Flemington when second-up, and extra ground is a plus. Rating sits at 92 IRD. Mr O'Reilly leads from barrier three and has been racing consistently. Two back at Geelong over this trip he was boxed in behind the winner but showed enough to suggest he's a threat on pace. That combo with Craig Williams carries some recent headwinds, but the rating of 87 IRD and his leading lane gives him tactical advantage. Fiorowngood jumps off the page—the formDetail shows back-to-back wins at Geelong and Mount Gambier over 2400 metres, donkey-licking them at Mount Gambier two starts back. On a winning streak and warrants serious attention, despite the stable's recent ROI sitting at 38 per cent.
Dad And Dave has jockey ROI running 16 per cent above career average in his last 100 rides, but his recent form is ordinary—two unplaced runs at Flemington and Caulfield over shorter trips leave him work to do. The speedGroups show Mr O'Reilly leads alone, with Fiorowngood onpace as the main early-speed player. That shapes a strong tempo. Johnich and Affluential sit midfield, Dad And Dave nearby; Ichnusa comes offmidfield. Ichnusa's rating edge and late-run profile on the heavy track in this shape point to real value.
Shortest win price
Ichnusa (12)
1.95
Most career wins
Affluential
10-8-4 from 38 starts
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offmidfield
Midfield
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Shaiyhar · Negative
Trainer Career
Trainer Career S/R is 4%
Johnich · Positive
Trainer ROI
Runners from this stable currently going at 50% POT in L100 Runners
Affluential · Negative
Rider
Negative rider change today
Fiorowngood · Positive
Trainer ROI
Runners from this stable currently going at 38% POT in L100 Runners
Career
38: 5-0-7
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
6: 0-0-1
Second-up
5: 1-0-1
Third-up
5: 0-0-2
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track St Arnaud
1: 0-0-0
Track Clairefontaine
1: 1-0-0
Track Le Lion Dangers
1: 0-0-0
Distance 3000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1800m
2: 0-0-2
Distance 2000m
21: 3-0-4
Going Good
26: 4-0-5
Going Soft
12: 1-0-2
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 4%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 37%
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 54% in L100 rides
Improved L/S
Positive
Improved again last start
AAP
Fair performance at Flemington at $101. Place chances look best here.
ILB
Jumped at $101.00 and inched into 4th last run at Flemington. Can't entertain a bet.
RP
Not disgraced in fourth over 1m2f at Flemington (handicap) last week; others appeal more with this looking like a hot contest.
RSIS
Started at 100/1 and crept into 4th last start at Flemington.
Career
45: 7-6-10
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
6: 1-0-1
Second-up
5: 0-1-1
Third-up
5: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
5: 2-1-0
Track CurrentTrack
6: 1-1-1
Track Caulfield Heath
1: 0-0-0
Track Mornington
4: 1-0-2
Distance 1728m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1800m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 2400m
6: 1-0-0
Going Good
32: 7-2-8
Going Soft
9: 0-1-1
Going Synthetic
4: 0-3-1
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
AAP
Backing up quickly. Emerged from midfield to get up in final strides at Ararat. Can again play a role.
ILB
On a short turnaround. Game effort to win narrowly by a nose last time at Ararat but rising in weight.
RP
Scored by a slim margin in a handicap (Ararat) a week ago; has won here; despite that Ararat success, others have more pressing claims.
RSIS
Racing on a quick back up. Got the upper hand late when winning by a nose last time at Ararat but going up in weight.
Career
14: 3-3-2
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 1-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Hobart
1: 0-0-0
Track Mornington
4: 1-1-1
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-1
Distance 2200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
10: 3-2-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-1
Going Soft
3: 0-1-1
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 50% POT in L100 Runners
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
AAP
Went home tamely at Flemington at $13 after winning at Caulfield. Look for improvement here.
ILB
Started at $13.00 and came in 12th last start at Flemington. Has the ability to turn things around. Daniel Stackhouse rates highly. Racing consistently this campaign. Has a good chance.
RP
Finished behind several of these rivals over 1m2f at Flemington (handicap) when beaten 6l last week; career record shows his ability to win (wins-runs record of 3-14); reunited with Daniel Stackhouse who gets on well with him; is not ruled out if excused most recent run as achieved handicap success two runs back and had excuses last time (tightened for room).
RSIS
At 12/1 finished 12th last run at Flemington. Capable of a strong comeback. Daniel Stackhouse is a key engagement. Win will not surprise.
Career
31: 5-4-5
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
5: 0-0-3
Second-up
4: 1-0-0
Third-up
4: 1-1-0
Fourth-up
3: 1-0-1
Track Horsham
1: 0-0-0
Track Hamilton
1: 0-0-0
Track Naracoorte
2: 0-0-1
Distance 2206m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 2460m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 2800m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
16: 4-3-3
Going Heavy
7: 0-1-1
Going Soft
8: 1-0-1
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 70%
Trainer Form
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectations 80%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 64% POT in L100 Runners
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Track Stats
Positive
Excels at this track
Gap In Runs
Negative
Not raced for 35 days
AAP
Failed to threaten at Hamilton after a betting drift. Hard to make a case.
ILB
Jumped at $15.00 and folded up in the straight when 13th last start at Hamilton.
RP
Has won here; slumped a bit since winning a handicap at Sandown in April; last of 13 over 1m3f at Hamilton (handicap) dropped back in distance last month; this is competitive and others more appealing.
RSIS
Odds of 14/1 and didn't attack the line when 13th last start at Hamilton.
Career
38: 10-8-4
Rating · IRD
78
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
6: 0-1-0
Second-up
4: 0-2-0
Third-up
3: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
3: 1-1-1
Track Flemington
1: 1-0-0
Track Pakenham
6: 1-1-1
Track Bendigo
2: 1-0-1
Distance 1600m
4: 0-0-0
Distance 2200m
4: 0-1-1
Distance 2220m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
20: 3-4-2
Going Heavy
4: 1-1-1
Going Soft
14: 6-3-1
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 26%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Fitness
Positive
At peak fitness backing up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
On a quick back-up. Settled back and didn't figure second-up in the 3yo+ Hcp at Ararat. In the placings only prior run here. Could get into the wider exotics at odds.
ILB
On a quick back up. Jumped at $41.00 and disappointing effort when 10th last start at Ararat but can find a nice position from the draw. Very minor chance.
RP
Finished tenth of 12 over 1m3f at Ararat (handicap) on Sunday; has managed ten wins from 30 career runs; this looks a fair heat so others more likely.
RSIS
Backs up quickly. Started 40/1 and moderate showing when 10th last start at Ararat but has a good draw. Hoping that the added weight won't hurt.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Offpace
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
AAP
Not disgraced at Flemington last start at $13. Deep into his campaign, worth a look.
ILB
On a short back up. Started $3.70 and ran 4th last time at Geelong and up against a higher level of opposition. Coming back in distance.
RSIS
On a short turnaround. Was 11/4 and ran 4th last time at Geelong and will be down in distance. Facing formidable rivals.
Career
18: 2-3-3
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
5: 0-0-0
Second-up
4: 0-3-0
Third-up
4: 1-0-1
Fourth-up
2: 1-0-0
Track Hamilton
1: 0-0-1
Track Flemington
3: 0-1-0
Track Caulfield
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1413m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 2000m
2: 0-1-0
Going Good
11: 1-2-2
Going Soft
5: 1-1-0
Going Unknown
2: 0-0-1
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 21% in Last 100 Rides
Jockey Booking
Positive
Blake Shinn 23% above market expected in L100 Rides
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Now 4 weeks between runs. Went home tamely at Caulfield over this journey at $12. Outside place prospect.
ILB
Started at $12.00 and came in 6th last time at Caulfield and hoping that the added weight won't hurt.
RP
Found life tough when 6l back in sixth (Caulfield) four weeks ago upped to this distance; passed over with a number of his rivals in good nick.
RSIS
At 11/1 finished 6th last start at Caulfield and has to cope with a weight increase.
Career
10: 4-1-2
Rating · IRD
86
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
2: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Mount Gambier
1: 1-0-0
Track Terang
2: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
2: 1-0-1
Distance 1443m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1700m
2: 0-0-1
Going Good
5: 3-0-0
Going Heavy
3: 0-0-2
Going Soft
2: 1-1-0
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 38% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 6%
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Consecutive Wins
Positive
Has strung together a few races in a row
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Racing Strongly
Positive
Racing in great shape
AAP
On a winning streak. Donkey-licked them at Mt Gambier two back. Added to his haul of recent wins at Geelong over this trip. Warrants attention again.
ILB
Ran on hard when winning last start at Geelong but competing at a higher level of competition. Unbeaten last 4 runs. Likes the cut in the ground with 1 win. Slim chance.
RP
Racking up quite the sequence and has achieved four wins from ten career runs; won by 1½l (Geelong) three weeks ago; despite that Geelong success, not hard to turn elsewhere.
RSIS
Bold effort when winning last run at Geelong but competing in a higher grade. On a winning streak the last 4 runs. Will relish the track conditions.
Career
11: 3-0-0
Rating · IRD
98
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Hobart
1: 1-0-0
Track Caulfield
4: 0-0-0
Track Launceston
1: 1-0-0
Distance 2000m
4: 1-0-0
Distance 2200m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 2400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
8: 2-0-0
Going Soft
3: 1-0-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 16% better than Career Avg.
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 8%
Key Rider
Positive
Ethan Brown 31% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 44%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 38%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 58% Profit on Turnover
Key Jockey
Positive
Ethan Brown winning at 17% POT in last 100 rides
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 26%
AAP
Raced midfield, couldn't match it but not disgraced at Flemington. First time around Sandown-Hillside. Has work to do on recent figures.
ILB
Ran 9th last time at Flemington. Expecting improvement here and drawn beautifully. Likes the cut in the ground. Expecting a solid performance.
RP
Record shows he knows where the winning post is (wins-runs career record of 3-11); finished ninth but wasn't beaten too far (just under 5l) over 1m2f at Flemington (handicap) last week; has been on the scene in the recent past and likely to be involved.
RSIS
Finished 9th last run at Flemington. Is capable of a resurgence and drawn well. Will relish the track conditions with 1 win from 2 attempts on a soft surface. Good chance of taking this out.
Career
17: 5-2-0
Rating · IRD
94
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
3: 0-1-0
Second-up
2: 1-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Sandown
3: 1-1-0
Track Flemington
3: 0-0-0
Track Mornington
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1415m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1600m
4: 1-1-0
Going Good
9: 3-1-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-1-0
Going Soft
7: 2-0-0
Jockey Booking
Negative
Craig Newitt current POT is 43% below Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Weight Increase
Negative
Rises 4kg now
AAP
Had all before her at turn and went home tamely at Flemington. Rise to 2400m a new challenge. Can fill the minors here.
ILB
Not up to standard when 12th last start at Flemington but back in an easier grade. Craig Newitt rates highly aboard but up in weight. Should get going late. Will go close.
RP
A course winner; towards the rear of 15 three weeks ago (Flemington) in a Group 3; must be respected if in the same mood as when achieving most recent success and dropping in class.
RSIS
Uncompetitive when 12th last start at Flemington but going down in class. Craig Newitt takes the reins today but carrying more weight than last time. Capable type.
Career
24: 3-6-3
Rating · IRD
98
Speed map
Leader
First-up
5: 0-1-1
Second-up
4: 1-1-0
Third-up
4: 1-2-0
Fourth-up
4: 0-1-1
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-1
Track Eagle Farm
3: 0-0-1
Track Beaudesert
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1350m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
2: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-1-0
Going Soft
9: 1-1-2
Going Good
13: 2-4-1
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -44% POT in their L100 Races
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 9%
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Racing Solidly
Positive
In peak form
AAP
Racing consistently. On pace, boxed away behind tearaway winner at Flemington. Rates highly.
ILB
Felt the pinch late when 2nd last time at Flemington. Should jump out and bowl along. Has not missed the money this preparation in 4 attempts. Definite claims for punters.
RP
Been running well in defeat of late; had four of these rivals behind him at Flemington over 1m2f (handicap) when a respectable runner-up last week.
RSIS
Put together a strong on-pace performance when 2nd beaten by 2 3/4L last time at Flemington. Should jump out and bowl along. Can take this out.
Career
4: 2-0-0
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
2: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Flemington
1: 0-0-0
Track Seymour
1: 1-0-0
Track Caulfield
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1700m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2000m
2: 1-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 2-0-0
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 8%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 38%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 58% Profit on Turnover
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Awkward Draw
Negative
May find this draw awkward
AAP
Worked home solidly at Flemington behind Yauson when second-up. More ground looks a plus. Sharper now & should prove hard to beat.
ILB
At $5.00 moved through the field into 4th last time at Flemington. 2 wins from 2 starts have come on soft ground. Goes well and could be a value opportunity.
RP
Well held in fourth having been third favourite at Flemington 11 days ago upped to 1m2f; winner of two of his four career runs; leading claims.
RSIS
Started 4/1 and improved late to finish 4th last time at Flemington. Likes the cut in the ground. Great chance.