Shortest win price
Tellez (6)
2.50
Welcome to Pioneer Park for the Happy Birthday Cathy Starr Hcp, set for 3:45 pm AEDT over the 1200m open handicap trip on a good track under fine weather. The win market order has Tellez heading the pack, closely followed by Black Zous, Flying Yishu, Bahama Bay, Boy Big, and Limited Risk rounding them out. Let us rip straight into the form and see how this race shapes up for a punt, mate!
Starting with the market fancies, Tellez for trainer Ms K Petrick jumps from barrier 4 with Lek Maloney steering, coming off a big-margin win at Alice Springs over 1100m in a 0 - 64 on a quick back-up, showing early speed which is a massive advantage on this circuit. Stablemate Black Zous starts from barrier 5 with Ianish Luximon aboard for Ms K Petrick, bringing a solid rating of 100 after bolting in at Pioneer Park two starts back over 1200m in BM76 grade before a minor placing over 1100m. Meanwhile, Flying Yishu for trainer Greg Connor and jockey Jessica Booth draws barrier 3, looking to bounce back fresh after a tenth start in a Fannie Bay open handicap and an Alice Springs run, rating 98 to suggest it is one for the exotics.
Looking further down the field, Bahama Bay drawn in barrier 2 for Ms K Petrick and rider Stan Tsaikos brings a 40-start record of 11 wins and sits midfield in the speed map alongside Flying Yishu, with the jockey running hot at 20 percent above career average POT and a hot trainer combo outperforming market expectations by 45 percent. Boy Big from barrier 6 with Paul Denton for Greg Connor acts as the backmarker, holding the fastest overall finishing sectionals from last start, while Limited Risk maps off-pace from barrier 1 for trainer Kym Healy. Tellez rates a real chance to dictate terms out front from the leader speed group alongside Black Zous, and the numbers say respect the Petrick stable runners here.
Shortest win price
Tellez (6)
2.50
Most career wins
Boy Big
12-6-19 from 68 starts
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Midfield
Offpace
Leader
Bahama Bay · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 20% better than Career Avg.
Flying Yishu · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 24% in Last 100 Rides
Black Zous · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -23% POT in their L100 Races
Boy Big · Positive
Fast Finisher
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Career
40: 11-6-3
Rating · IRD
84
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
5: 1-2-0
Second-up
4: 1-2-0
Third-up
4: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
4: 1-0-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-0
Track Seymour
1: 0-0-0
Track Moonee Valley
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
3: 1-0-0
Distance 1400m
4: 1-0-0
Distance 1000m
5: 0-2-0
Going Good
33: 10-4-3
Going Soft
5: 1-1-0
Going Synthetic
2: 0-1-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 20% better than Career Avg.
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 45%
Hot Jockey
Positive
Stan Tsaikos in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 25%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 6%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Backup
Positive
Racing again inside one week
AAP
Backing up quickly. Ordinary performance in small field this venue. Very fit, could pop up at fair odds.
ILB
Racing on a quick back up. Started $13.00 and below expectations when 4th last run at this venue but gets a favourable draw. Will be tested.
RP
Beaten 8l (fourth) over 5½f here (handicap) last week; a prolific C&D winner; has strong claims.
RSIS
Backing up quickly. Started 12/1 and disappointing effort when 4th last run at this track but gets a favourable draw.
Career
36: 10-10-1
Rating · IRD
98
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
6: 2-0-1
Second-up
5: 1-3-0
Third-up
5: 1-2-0
Fourth-up
3: 1-1-0
Track Echuca
1: 0-0-1
Track Donald
1: 0-0-0
Track Benalla
2: 0-2-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
8: 2-1-0
Distance 1406m
2: 0-2-0
Going Good
31: 10-8-0
Going Heavy
3: 0-1-1
Going Soft
2: 0-1-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 24% in Last 100 Rides
Trainer SR
Negative
Greg Connor striking at just 10%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 42%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 36% Profit on Turnover
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Long Prep
Negative
Yet to find the winners stall this prep
AAP
Fresh. Unable to make an impression this track over this trip. One for exotics.
ILB
At $5.50 weakened to finish 5th last run at this venue. Can show a better performance this time and will benefit with the weight drop. Suited against these.
RP
Finished fifth, beaten 10l by Black Zous 28 days ago; multiple course winner; may be sharper for most recent run and must enter calculations.
RSIS
Started 9/2 and gave away some ground when 5th last run at the track. Capable of bouncing back and carrying less weight this time. Commands respect.
Career
48: 8-16-6
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Leader
First-up
8: 4-2-0
Second-up
6: 0-1-2
Third-up
3: 0-2-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-2-1
Track Alice Springs
22: 6-9-4
Track CurrentTrack
22: 6-9-4
Track Kununurra
2: 0-2-0
Distance 1312m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1321m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1330m
1: 0-0-1
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Going Firm
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
41: 6-14-6
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -23% POT in their L100 Races
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 10%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Primed
Positive
Fitter here racing on a quick back up
Honest
Positive
Finishing in the money lately
AAP
On a quick back-up. Bolted in at Pioneer Park two back. In the minor spoils but still well held this track second-up. Respecting in this line-up.
ILB
On a quick back up. Came in 3rd last start at this venue. Displays good tactical speed. Has run into the money 2 from 2 attempts this campaign. Should go well.
RP
Winner of six races at this venue; split Boy Big and Bahama Bay here over 5½f (handicap) when beaten 7l last Saturday; makes limited appeal.
RSIS
On a quick turnaround. Tidy run when 3rd last time here. Should muster plenty of early toe. Been in the top three each start recently. Has every chance.
Career
68: 12-6-19
Rating · IRD
85
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
8: 0-1-3
Second-up
6: 0-0-3
Third-up
6: 1-2-2
Fourth-up
5: 2-0-0
Track Fannie Bay
7: 1-0-3
Track Warracknabeal
1: 0-0-0
Track Echuca
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
6: 2-0-2
Distance 1100m
22: 5-4-5
Distance 1200m
26: 4-2-8
Going Good
57: 11-6-14
Going Soft
11: 1-0-5
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Trainer SR
Negative
Greg Connor striking at just 10%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are under performing market expectations by -21%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 42%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 36% Profit on Turnover
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 13%
Improver
Positive
Poised to improve on recent form here
Fitness
Positive
At peak fitness backing up
AAP
On a quick back-up. Secured second in a staggered finish this venue. This looks a deeper race.
ILB
Backing up quickly. Placed 2nd last run at this track. Producing consistent results this campaign. Has a great burst of speed late. Modest hope.
RP
A prolific C&D winner; finished ahead of two of these rivals here over 5½f (handicap) when well held runner-up a week ago; hard to dismiss.
RSIS
On a short turnaround. Nice run when 2nd last time at this venue. Has a great burst of pace late. Producing consistent results since returning from a break.
Career
33: 5-6-4
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
6: 2-0-0
Second-up
5: 0-0-1
Third-up
5: 0-0-3
Fourth-up
3: 1-0-0
Track Morphettville
6: 0-2-0
Track Strathalbyn
2: 1-1-0
Track Balaklava
1: 0-0-0
Distance 900m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1050m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
29: 4-5-4
Going Soft
4: 1-1-0
Jockey Booking
Negative
Shuichi Terachi current POT is 6% below Career Avg.
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 77% in L100 rides
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Backup
Positive
Racing again inside one week
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
On a short back-up. Prominent before fading late this track. Gets all the favours from ace draw. Looks suitably placed in this line-up.
ILB
Backs up quickly. At $9.00 came in 4th last time at this track but has a nice advantage with a good barrier. Competing in a higher grade. Will need to elevate.
RP
Finished fourth but only beaten 3l over 7f here (handicap) last Saturday; producing fairly consistent form; this is competitive and others have more pressing claims.
RSIS
Racing on a quick back up. Odds of 8/1 and ran 4th last start at this track but drawn well. Racing against tougher rivals.
Career
45: 6-7-5
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Leader
First-up
6: 0-1-0
Second-up
5: 0-0-1
Third-up
4: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
4: 0-2-0
Track CurrentTrack
15: 2-2-3
Track Gold Coast
1: 0-0-0
Track Ipswich
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
2: 0-1-1
Distance 1400m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
10: 1-1-1
Going Soft
7: 1-0-1
Going Good
38: 5-7-4
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Margin LS
Positive
Won by a big margin last start
Backup
Positive
Racing again inside one week
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
On a quick back-up. Dominated small field this track when supported. Very well placed for a repeat.
ILB
Backing up quickly. Pulled away to win by 5 1/4L last run around here but up against a more competitive field. Should jump out and bowl along. Will go close.
RP
Clear-cut winner by just over 5l here over 5½f (handicap) last Saturday; others more appealing despite that win at Pioneer Park.
RSIS
On a short turnaround. Was rock solid when winning by a margin of 5 1/4L last start at this track but racing in stronger company. Should race on the pace. Great chance.