Shortest win price
Star Of Lily (5)
2.40
Moruya's hosting Class 1 country racing over 1010 metres on a Soft 5 in showers at 1:35 pm AEST. The jump's done and dusted. Star Of Lily leads the market, with Melodia Perfecta and Remy's Bro next in line. Four runners shape as leaders here — Remy's Bro, Noteabeel, Melodia Perfecta, and Sesto will battle for the front, while Star Of Lily and Zeema sit on pace just behind them. That's a crowded early tempo, and it'll suit runners who can mop up when the dust settles.
Star Of Lily's the shortest for a reason. She won here first-up last prep and also dominated at her only other Moruya start — that's two from two at this track fresh. Seventeen weeks out now, but the form says she handles a break and the track well. Melodia Perfecta has strong local credentials too: placed at Moruya in her last two, and made running when beaten three lengths in a BM58 at this venue. She goes hard early and knows the track inside out. Remy's Bro cleared maiden ranks here 16 August and is back in distance; jockey Jade Mc Kenzie sits 27 per cent above market expected over her last hundred rides, a real edge. Noteabeel's a rating 100 with a combo running 250 per cent above market in recent form — Allan McRae's team is firing — though last two runs in soft going at sprint trips haven't clicked.
The numbers throw up an intriguing angle: Remy's Bro rates a real chance at slightly bigger odds. She's got a win here already, she's stepping back in distance where her form reads better, and Mc Kenzie's hot hand is a genuine tick in her favour. Noteabeel can't be ignored given that hot training form, but the soft going and recent pattern suggest Melodia Perfecta or Star Of Lily will prove harder to run down when the leaders empty out. Magic Forest, Zeema, Sesto and Spiritual Mystery all face headwinds in the form and combo data — worth watching from a betting angle but not where the weight of evidence sits.
Shortest win price
Star Of Lily (5)
2.40
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offmidfield
Onpace
Leader
Remy's Bro · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 12% better than Career Avg.
Noteabeel · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are out performing market expectations by 250%
Melodia Perfecta · Positive
Fast Early
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Star Of Lily · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 22% in Last 100 Rides
Career
6: 1-2-1
Rating · IRD
83
Speed map
Leader
First-up
2: 0-1-1
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Goulburn
1: 0-0-0
Track Moruya
4: 1-1-1
Track CurrentTrack
4: 1-1-1
Distance 930m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1010m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1020m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
3: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
1: 1-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-1-1
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 12% better than Career Avg.
Key Rider
Positive
Jade Mc Kenzie 27% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 143%
Awkward Draw
Negative
May find this draw awkward
Back in Dist
Negative
Dropping back to a less suitable distance range
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Cleared maiden ranks at Moruya 16 Aug. Performance just fair at Goulburn at $8. Coming back in distance. Has some claims.
ILB
Started at $8.00 and came in 6th last run at Goulburn and will be dropping in distance. Displays good tactical speed. Racing consistently this preparation. Place chance.
RP
A previous winner here; has kicked on in his last couple of races; out of the frame (beaten just under 4l in sixth) over 6½f at Goulburn (handicap) three weeks ago; capable if in the mood so shortlisted.
RSIS
At 7/1 ran 6th last time at Goulburn and will be down in distance. Should muster plenty of early pace. Performing honestly since resuming from a break.
Career
4: 1-1-0
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Leader
First-up
1: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Gundagai
1: 0-0-0
Track Wagga
1: 0-1-0
Track Sapphire Coast
1: 0-0-0
Distance 900m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1010m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 1-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-1-0
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 250%
Hot Trainer
Positive
Allan McRae in good form, out performing market 45%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 26% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 7%
Fresh
Positive
Freshened up. Had a break of 42-60 days
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Let-up (59-days). In close proximity when battled home in rain affected going at Gundagai. Capable of making an impact.
ILB
Freshened for this. Started at $13.00 and looked outclassed when 6th last start at Gundagai. Is capable of a resurgence. Absolutely right in this.
RP
Not beaten that far at Gundagai two months ago; lightly raced (running for just the fifth time); likely to be involved if in the same mood as when achieving most recent success.
RSIS
Back from a let up. Was 12/1 and couldn't stay in touch when 6th last time at Gundagai. Should improve from the last run. Expected to be competitive.
Career
32: 4-4-4
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
4: 2-0-0
Second-up
3: 1-2-0
Third-up
3: 0-2-1
Fourth-up
3: 1-0-0
Track Canberra
7: 1-0-2
Track Grenfell
1: 0-1-0
Track Wellington
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1460m
3: 0-0-1
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 975m
1: 0-0-1
Going Synthetic
5: 0-0-2
Going Unknown
3: 2-0-1
Going Firm
1: 1-0-0
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 45%
Trainer Form
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectations 45%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 26% POT in L100 Runners
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 7%
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
1st Up S/R
Positive
Has won 2 from 4 when resuming
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Resuming (24-weeks). Saluted at Yass first-up last prep. One for exotics fresh in this affair.
ILB
First up from a break of 24 weeks and chimed in with a win by 2 3/4L first up last preparation at Yass.
RP
Out of the frame (beaten just under 4l in sixth, Gundagai) in April; returns from a break here; hard enough to fancy.
RSIS
Resuming and left nothing to chance when winning by 2 3/4L resuming last preparation at Yass.
Career
15: 1-3-5
Rating · IRD
96
Speed map
Leader
First-up
4: 0-0-2
Second-up
3: 1-1-1
Third-up
3: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Ballarat Synthetic
1: 0-1-0
Track Canberra
1: 0-0-0
Track Sale
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1005m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1020m
2: 0-1-1
Distance 1080m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
11: 1-2-3
Going Soft
2: 0-0-1
Going Synthetic
2: 0-1-1
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Made running, no answer when challenged but held on for third in the (Bm58) this track. Has speed. Placed two from two here. Can play a role.
ILB
Grabbed towards the finish when 3rd last start around here. Likely to be well placed early. Exhibiting good form this preparation. Should go very close.
RP
Not beaten too far when third two weeks ago; series of good efforts to her name; also engaged in race 8 at Moruya.
RSIS
Couldn't keep the pace going when 3rd beaten by 3 1/4L last start at this track. Has good tactical pace and will be nicely positioned. Suited against these.
Career
4: 1-0-1
Rating · IRD
86
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
2: 1-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Moruya
1: 1-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 1-0-0
Track Sandown
1: 0-0-0
Distance 920m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 1-0-1
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 22% in Last 100 Rides
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 6% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 12%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 1
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
1st Up S/R
Positive
Has won 1 from 2 when resuming
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
First-up (17-weeks). Easy winner Moruya first-up last prep. Winner at only other start at Moruya. Dominates the market fresh.
ILB
First up after 17 weeks and finished with purpose when winning first up last preparation at this venue. Drawn beautifully. Not at all out of this race.
RP
Fifth when fancied (9-10) over 6f at Wagga (handicap) in June; has won here; just her fifth outing so still early days; has to be feared as shown she can win fairly recently.
RSIS
Resuming and finished hard to win resuming last preparation at the track. Drawn nicely. Watch for a sign in the market.
Career
10: 1-1-0
Rating · IRD
76
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
3: 1-1-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Queanbeyan
1: 0-0-0
Track Wagga
1: 0-0-0
Track Moruya
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
6: 1-1-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 1-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
6: 0-1-0
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 5%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -52% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 42%
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Gap In Runs
Negative
Not raced for 39 days
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Resuming after a (59-weeks) spell. Ran a bottler in Class 1 company at Canberra first-up last prep while brought on by a single Hawkesbury trial. One for multiples fresh in this company.
ILB
First up and competed in a tight contest first up last preparation at Canberra. Finished 5th in a trial at Hawkesbury on Aug 24th but back in trip. Unlikely to feature.
RP
Towards the rear of 13 at Wagga over 6½f (handicap) last August; long absence to overcome; has been on the scene in the recent past and looks like a player.
RSIS
Resuming and narrowly denied a win resuming last preparation at Canberra. Ran 5th in a trial at Hawkesbury on Aug 24th but back to a shorter distance.
Career
23: 1-3-3
Rating · IRD
88
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
6: 0-0-1
Second-up
4: 0-0-2
Third-up
4: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
3: 1-0-0
Track Hawkesbury
2: 0-0-1
Track Queanbeyan
3: 0-1-0
Track Newcastle
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
5: 0-2-0
Distance 1300m
3: 0-0-1
Going Good
10: 0-2-0
Going Heavy
3: 0-0-2
Going Soft
9: 0-1-1
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 49% in Last 100 Rides
Trainer SR
Negative
Frank Cleary striking at just 6%
Jockey Booking
Positive
Jean Van Overmeire 58% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 38%
Key Jockey
Positive
Jean Van Overmeire winning at 43% POT in last 100 rides
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 7%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
AAP
Well back and never a factor at Queanbeyan first up. Will be fitter second-up. Has some claims.
ILB
Started $8.50 and moderate showing when 8th last start at Queanbeyan but can find a nice position from the draw. Can figure in the finish.
RP
Held in eighth over 4½f at Queanbeyan (handicap) three weeks ago; easy enough to take on.
RSIS
Started at 15/2 and below standard effort when 8th last run at Queanbeyan but can find a nice position from the draw. Represents value.
Career
7: 1-0-1
Rating · IRD
75
Speed map
Leader
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Queanbeyan
2: 1-0-0
Track Orange
1: 0-0-0
Track Cowra
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1010m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 950m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-1
Going Good
4: 1-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Jockey Booking
Negative
Shaun Guymer current POT is 60% below Career Avg.
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 43%
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 69% in L100 rides
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
First-up (29-weeks). Latest runs have been well placed. Prefer to see.
ILB
First up from a break of 29 weeks. At $18.00 gave away some ground when 7th last run at Cowra. Likely to get back. Cannot be tipped.
RP
Last of seven at Cowra over 5½f (handicap) in March; returns from a layoff; not hard to turn elsewhere.
RSIS
Resumes after a break of 29 weeks. Was 17/1 and didn't attack the line when 7th last start at Cowra. Likely to get back in the field.
Career
17: 1-0-2
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Forbes
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Track Cowra
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
4: 1-0-0
Distance 1010m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
7: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
4: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-2
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 1%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 84%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 89% Profit on Turnover
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Awkward Draw
Negative
May find this draw awkward
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Ran on with some conviction from back half at Canberra. Hard to make a case.
ILB
Started at $31.00 and ran 6th last run at Canberra. Will be giving the leaders a big start. This looks a tough assignment.
RP
Posted respectable effort when beaten just under 3l over 6f at Canberra (handicap) two weeks ago; subpar record of 1-17.
RSIS
Started at 30/1 and came in 6th last time at Canberra. Might have to make up considerable ground.