Shortest win price
Nunya (4)
1.40
Gawler hosts the Lj Hooker Property Specialists Maiden Plate over 1706 metres on a Good 4 track in overcast conditions at 2:26 pm AEDT. This is a competitive three-year-old and up maiden, and the win market tells the story: Nunya sits shortest, ahead of Mizzen Jib, Ateyate, and Mohatu. It's a tight spread across the top four, which signals a genuine contest with plenty of angles to play.
Nunya rates a real chance at the head of the market. The four-year-old has tasted minor placings at Murray Bridge and Halidon, running down narrowly on both occasions, and the numbers say he goes hard early — sectionals back that profile. Aaron Bain and Ned Taylor's runner has been lightly raced but shown real potential, and the comment flags this as within his reach. Mizzen Jib, trained by Sarah Rutten and ridden by Caitlin Jones, sits next. The mare was second at Gawler second-up over 1500 metres and finished fastest late, and Caitlin Jones is outperforming her career average by 10% in recent rides. The added journey suits her profile. Ateyate has form that warrants attention according to the report — a distant third at Murray Bridge in similar conditions — but the trainer's recent strike rate is struggling at just 9%, and the jockey-trainer combo has lost 21 per cent of proven odds across their last 100 races. That's a headwind.
Mohatu shapes as the value angle. His jockey-trainer pairing with Jason Holder and Peter & Belinda Blanch are outperforming market expectations by 56 per cent, a genuine hot combo. The five-year-old has raced in the back half without landing a blow, so this step up in trip and the Holder connection might unlock something. In the speedMap, Nunya leads from the front, while Ateyate and Mohatu sit offpace and will need to muster a late run. The form and the stats favour a genuine contender, and Nunya's proven ability to run tight margins makes him the logical pick, but Mizzen Jib's finishing sectionals and upward trajectory offer real appeal as an alternative.
Shortest win price
Nunya (4)
1.40
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offmidfield
Midfield
Leader
Ateyate · Negative
Trainer Recent
Camp struggling with S/R just 9%
Majestic Moshe · Negative
Current SR
Rider’s recent POT is returning 26% lower than Career Avg.
Mizzen Jib · Positive
Fast Finisher
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Nunya · Positive
Fast Early
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Career
9: 0-1-1
Rating · IRD
85
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Werribee
1: 0-0-0
Track Stony Creek
1: 0-1-0
Track Moe
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2050m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 2100m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 2350m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
7: 0-1-1
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 9%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -21% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 23%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Form Revival
Positive
Turning form around with last couple
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
No match but kept on for a distant third in the 3yo+ Mdn Plate at Murray Bridge Gh. Warrants attention.
ILB
On a short back up. Produced an eye catching run when 3rd last time at Murray Bridge. Definitely worth considering.
RP
Appears to be on the upgrade judged on two most recent runs but yet to open his account after nine starts; wasn't disgraced when third of 11 at Murray Bridge Gh over 1m1f (maiden) last Wednesday.
RSIS
On a short back up. Finished strongly when 3rd beaten by almost 4L last start at Murray Bridge. Represents significant value.
Career
31: 0-0-3
Rating · IRD
76
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
5: 0-0-0
Second-up
4: 0-0-0
Third-up
4: 0-0-2
Fourth-up
4: 0-0-0
Track Murray Bridge
6: 0-0-0
Track Mount Gambier
1: 0-0-0
Track Gawler
8: 0-0-2
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1350m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1700m
3: 0-0-2
Going Good
14: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
4: 0-0-1
Going Soft
13: 0-0-1
Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 26% lower than Career Avg.
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 20%
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature
AAP
Finished well down the track in 3yo+ Mdn Plate at Murray Bridge Gh last outing. Noted non winner.
ILB
Backing up quickly. Started at $41.00 and folded up in the straight when 10th last start at Murray Bridge. Likely to settle back in the field. Will be tested in this.
RP
Finished behind three of these rivals over 1m1f at Murray Bridge Gh (maiden) when beaten 19l (tenth of 11) a week ago; winless with run of consecutive defeats standing at 30; is passed over as this is a fairly competitive event.
RSIS
Racing on a quick back up. Started 40/1 and was well beaten when 10th last run at Murray Bridge. Will be giving the leaders a big start.
Career
4: 0-1-0
Rating · IRD
82
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Strathalbyn
1: 0-0-0
Track Gawler
1: 0-1-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1400m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 0-1-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 10% in Last 100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 130%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
AAP
Got back, cut loose late to fill the minors this venue when second-up. Added journey should assist. Positive last start and may take another step.
ILB
Kept running on late when 2nd last time at the track and will be aiming for a soft run from the draw. Can go through the gears. Slight prospect.
RP
Appears to be going forwards; solid effort in defeat to finish runner-up after going off 20-1 over 7½f here (maiden) last month; every chance.
RSIS
Put in a competitive run when placing 2nd beaten by more than 3L last run at this venue and has the ideal stall. Has a great burst of pace late.
Career
4: 0-3-0
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Leader
First-up
3: 0-2-0
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Murray Bridge
2: 0-1-0
Track Phar Lap Raceway
1: 0-1-0
Track Halidon
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1380m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 0-3-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Promising Jon Snow 4-year-old. Run down in the shadows at Murray Bridge Gh second-up. Should be prominent. This looks within his reach.
ILB
On a quick turnaround. Couldn't keep the momentum going throughout when 2nd beaten by 1 3/4L last run at Murray Bridge and good career start. Should race on the speed. Looks the proverbial good thing.
RP
Minor honours in a maiden a week ago (11-4) at Murray Bridge Gh when ahead of several of these rivals upped to 1m1f.
RSIS
Backing up quickly. Displayed a strong effort throughout the race when 2nd beaten by 1 3/4L last start at Murray Bridge and solid career start. Top chance.
Career
4: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
83
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
2: 0-0-0
Track Strathalbyn
1: 0-0-0
Track Murray Bridge
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 56%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
AAP
Raced in back half and never landed a blow at Strathalbyn second-up. Holder on. Quickly up in trip. Can make the podium.
ILB
Was $9.00 and looked outclassed when 10th last time at Strathalbyn but racing over more ground. Strong contender.
RP
Could not manage better than tenth over 6f at Strathalbyn (maiden) last month; should go well.
RSIS
Was 8/1 and couldn't maintain the pace when 10th last run at Strathalbyn but stepping up in trip.
Career
1: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Strathalbyn
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1350m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 22% better than Career Avg.
Hot Jockey
Positive
Wesley Cave in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 28%
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 20%
Well beaten LS
Negative
Not competitive last run
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature
AAP
A long way off them at Strathalbyn on debut at cricket score odds. Much to learn and others carry more punch.
ILB
Started at $101.00 and couldn't maintain the pace when 10th last run at Strathalbyn but fitter for debut run. Slim possibilty.
RP
Held tenth of 11 but was making her first appearance (6½f, Strathalbyn) sporting cheekpieces at 100-1 last month; she's an attractive contender.
RSIS
Started 100/1 and gave away some ground when 10th last start at Strathalbyn but having second career run.
Career
5: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
75
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Balaklava
1: 0-0-0
Track Halidon
1: 0-0-0
Track Strathalbyn
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1380m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Trainer SR
Negative
G, N & B Searle & Callanan striking at just 4%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 54%
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 2
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Failed to threaten at Murray Bridge Gh when second-up at longer odds. Sharper now, win wouldn't shock.
ILB
On a short turnaround. Was $20.00 and came in 6th last time at Murray Bridge but can find a nice position from the draw. Will need a big effort to win this.
RP
Beaten 8l in sixth at Murray Bridge Gh over 1m1f (maiden) last Wednesday; easy to oppose.
RSIS
Backs up quickly. Odds of 19/1 and ran 6th last start at Murray Bridge but can find a nice position from the draw.