Shortest win price
Strada Varenna (11)
3.50
Doomben's 1200m Class 3 card runs overcast on a soft track (SOFT7) at 2:28 pm AEDT. The win market is led by Strada Varenna, who sits shortest, with Cardonette next and Artistic Venture third. Desanto and Lead Me On round out the first five. It's a competitive field with several runners in form, but the numbers jump off the page around a couple of the favoured types.
Strada Varenna rates a real chance at the top of the market. The form suggests genuine ability — the horse toughed it out on the pace at Eagle Farm over this distance on a good track, recorded a slashing win beforehand on heavy going, and the analysis rates this as a major player here. However, the Gollan stable combination is running cold overall, losing 42 per cent on turnover across the last 100 races, so connections aren't firing at their best. Cardonette sits next and has serious credentials. The horse was impressive last start at this track over this exact trip on a SOFT5 surface, belted home with the fastest finishing sectionals in the race, and comes rated 100 by the figures. Maps well for Doomben too, outperforming market expectations by 25 per cent. With only last-up form to suggest it's coming from the back, there's real upside if the tempo suits.
Artistic Venture deserves a mention further down the market. The form line shows a second over 850m in a trial, and the horse has been trialling well since returning from 22 weeks out. At the weights here and with Kyle Wilson-Taylor aboard, the rating sits at 73. It's a big ask stepping up in trip and class, but the finishing sectionals were quick last time, and at the odds, there's value in the mix. Desanto leads from barrier 5 and is freshly returned for a new stable after a strong Class 1 win at Sunshine Coast. The early pace from the leader could light this up for a finisher.
Shortest win price
Strada Varenna (11)
3.50
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offmidfield
Midfield
Offpace
Leader
Chicago Fireball · Negative
Resuming
Poor strike rate when first up
Lead Me On · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 16% in Last 100 Rides
No Fooling · Positive
Fast Finisher
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Saint Aldwyn · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -36% POT in their L100 Races
Career
21: 3-3-4
Rating · IRD
85
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
4: 0-0-1
Second-up
2: 1-0-0
Third-up
2: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Cork
2: 0-0-0
Track Curragh
7: 0-2-0
Track Dundalk
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1499m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1609m
5: 2-1-0
Distance 1207m
1: 0-0-0
Going Firm
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
14: 2-1-3
Going Heavy
1: 1-0-0
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Import returning for 2nd Australian campaign (18-weeks). Better for first Aust run. Tongue tie goes on. Need to lean on the betting here.
ILB
Had a break from racing and returns to competition. At $13.00 faded away to finish 6th last run at Ipswich. Tongue tie go on for the first time. Serious contender.
RP
Was sixth of nine on his debut in Ipswich conditions race over 6½f at 12-1 in July; three from 20 overseas; returns from a break here; probably unlikely to trouble the principals.
RSIS
First run back after a break. At 12/1 looked outclassed when 6th last start at Ipswich. Should muster plenty of early toe. Should run a competitive race.
Rating · IRD
20
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
AAP
Void of early speed but he let down strongly Class 3 company at Eagle Farm first up. Tough gate, but right in the mix.
ILB
Hit the line well when 2nd beaten by 1 3/4L last time at Eagle Farm.
RSIS
Good performance to run into 2nd last run at Eagle Farm on a heavy track.
Career
9: 3-1-1
Rating · IRD
95
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
4: 1-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Doomben
3: 1-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
3: 1-0-1
Track Gold Coast
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 2-0-0
Distance 1000m
5: 1-1-0
Distance 1050m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 1-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
7: 2-1-1
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 16% in Last 100 Rides
Jockey Booking
Positive
Tahlia Fenlon 31% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 48%
Hot Jockey
Positive
Tahlia Fenlon in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 31%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
First run for new trainer solid effort on a H10 at Eagle Farm. Will be fitter second-up. Winner at track and distance. Improver.
ILB
Jumped at $5.00 and came in 5th last time at Eagle Farm. Has the talent to rebound quickly. Will be competitive.
RP
Not had much racing for his age and can be a player at this level; respectable effort (beaten 1½l) over 5f at Eagle Farm (handicap) on first run for current trainer last month; in with a big shout as has wins in the formbook.
RSIS
Started 4/1 and finished 5th last run at Eagle Farm. Should improve. Will show up at the business end.
Career
11: 3-0-3
Rating · IRD
77
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
3: 1-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-1
Third-up
2: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
3: 1-0-0
Track Pakenham
3: 1-0-2
Track Cranbourne
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1000m
3: 1-0-2
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1110m
3: 1-0-0
Going Good
9: 3-0-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-1
Going Soft
1: 0-0-1
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -35% POT in their L100 Races
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Awkward Draw
Negative
Would have liked a better draw
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Freshened. Delivered a steely performance to score Hcp (65) this venue. Going well but meets stronger field and has a tough draw.
ILB
Finished hard to win last time around here but testing ability against stronger contenders. Might have to make up considerable ground. Could feature here.
RP
Has achieved three wins from 11 career runs; returned to winning ways in a handicap last month; despite that Doomben success, looks risky.
RSIS
Charged home to win last time at the track but racing against tougher rivals. Might have to make up considerable ground. Watch for a sign in the market.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Midfield
Wet To Dry
Negative
Coming from a wet to dry (Heavy 8 to Good 4) track may prove difficult
AAP
Game effort at Eagle Farm in sticky going. Meets a deeper race, and has drawn awkwardly.
ILB
Produced an eye catching run when 2nd last run at Eagle Farm on a heavy surface but up against tougher competition.
RSIS
Improved to place when 2nd last time at Eagle Farm but taking on stronger rivals. Showing great form in recent runs.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Midfield
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
AAP
Let-up (77-days). Started $6.50 when safely held in Class 3 company at Eagle Farm over longer test. Could add some value to exotics.
ILB
First up after 11 weeks and nice run when 3rd first up last preparation at this track. Dropping in distance.
RSIS
Resuming and competitive effort when 3rd resuming last preparation at the track. Back to a shorter trip.
Career
10: 3-2-1
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
3: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Doomben
4: 1-1-1
Track CurrentTrack
4: 1-1-1
Track Ipswich
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1250m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1350m
2: 1-1-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
6: 2-1-1
Going Soft
4: 1-1-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -36% POT in their L100 Races
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 17%
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Form Revival
Positive
Turning form around with last couple
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
First-up (21-weeks). Just collared in Maiden company first-up last campaign. Likes Doomben and maps well. 2 trials. Not hopeless.
ILB
First up and came on strongly when 2nd first up last preparation at Canterbury. Ran 2nd in a barrier trial at Deagon on Oct 30th. Drawn nicely. Peak required to upset this field.
RP
Respectable effort (beaten just over 2l) in a handicap in June upped to 1m; produced a string of consistent efforts; brings winning C&D form to the table; returns from a layoff; this line-up contains some strong opposition so hard enough to fancy.
RSIS
Resuming and displayed good finishing pace when 2nd resuming last preparation at Canterbury. Fitter for a trial at Deagon on Oct 30th and proven runner at this trip.
Rating · IRD
20
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Primed
Positive
Fitter here racing on a quick back up
AAP
On a quick back-up. Not disgraced at Eagle Farm when 2nd-up. Likes Doomben and back in easier class. Respect.
ILB
On a short turnaround. Started $11.00 and ran 4th last run at Eagle Farm.
RSIS
On a quick turnaround. At 10/1 ran 4th last run at Eagle Farm.
Career
8: 3-4-1
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
3: 1-2-0
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Gold Coast
2: 1-1-0
Track Ipswich
1: 0-0-1
Track Eagle Farm
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1000m
3: 1-2-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1110m
2: 1-1-0
Going Good
6: 2-4-0
Going Soft
2: 1-0-1
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 25%
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Track Stats
Positive
Excels at this track
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
In Form
Positive
Racing in top form recently
AAP
Consistent type with good figures. Impressive performance on a soft deck this venue over this trip. Probably have to come from last.
ILB
Ran over the top of them when winning last run at the track but matched against a stronger field. Will be hitting the line strongly. Will go close.
RP
Won by 2l last month in a handicap; is of interest.
RSIS
Reeled them in to win last time at this track but matched against a stronger field. Has run into the placings all attempts recently. Will be motoring home late. Commands respect.
Career
10: 3-0-0
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
4: 3-0-0
Second-up
3: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Eagle Farm
4: 0-0-0
Track Doomben
2: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
3: 2-0-0
Distance 1110m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
6: 1-0-0
Going Good
7: 2-0-0
Going Heavy
2: 1-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 26%
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note
AAP
Fresh. Not disgraced at Eagle Farm second-up at $4.60. Gets the blinkers on here, but must lift.
ILB
Was $4.60 and basic showing when 6th last run at Eagle Farm and racing against tougher rivals. Will have to carry extra weight.
RP
Not disgraced in sixth (Eagle Farm) last month in a handicap; proven that she knows how to get her head in front (seeking a fourth career win); is passed over as running in what looks to be a hot race.
RSIS
At 7/2 tailed off when 6th last time at Eagle Farm and racing in stronger company. Goes up in weight.
Career
13: 3-2-0
Rating · IRD
94
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
3: 1-0-0
Second-up
2: 1-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Doomben
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Track Gold Coast
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1100m
6: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
7: 2-2-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
11: 2-2-0
Going Heavy
1: 1-0-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 23% better than Career Avg.
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -42% POT in their L100 Races
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Consistent
Positive
Showing up at the business end
AAP
Holding form. Toughed it out on the pace at Eagle Farm over this trip at $1.95. Usually prominent. Major player here.
ILB
Flew home to win last time at Eagle Farm. Going well this preparation. Jett Newman takes a large claim. Good prospects.
RP
Has achieved three wins from 13 career runs; came out on top by just under 2l at Eagle Farm last month; likely to be involved.
RSIS
Ran on hard when winning last time at Eagle Farm. Jett Newman provides some weight relief. Good chance in this.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Leader
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Form At Track
Positive
1 time winner here at Doomben
Fresh
Positive
Freshened up. Had a break of 42-60 days
Good Form
Positive
Very competitive in recent runs
AAP
Let-up (52-days). Genuine performer with a good record. All honours in the small field at Eagle Farm over this trip. Barrier is the test.
ILB
Freshened up. Was much too speedy in front when winning by a margin of 1 1/2L last time at Eagle Farm but competing at a higher level of competition.
RSIS
Freshened for this. Led and controlled the pace when winning by 1 1/2L last start at Eagle Farm but facing a stronger grade.
Career
5: 2-1-0
Rating · IRD
71
Speed map
Leader
First-up
3: 1-1-0
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Eagle Farm
3: 1-1-0
Track Doomben
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
4: 2-1-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
2: 1-0-0
Going Good
3: 1-1-0
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Stable In Form
Positive
Stable going well. Out performing market by 36%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 17% POT in L100 Runners
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
Wet To Dry
Negative
Coming from a wet to dry (Heavy 8 to Good 4) track may prove difficult
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Freshened since return. Strong win over 1000m Hcp (C1) at Sunshine Coast for new stable. Looks to have upside.
ILB
Ran on hard when winning last start at Sunshine Coast but up against stronger opponents. Considering others.
RP
Successful by just under 2l on her debut for new trainer last month (Sunshine Coast) in a handicap; the stable is going well; is respected.
RSIS
Finished hard to win last start at Sunshine Coast but competing at a higher level of competition.
Rating · IRD
20
Form At Track
Positive
2 time winner here at Doomben
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
AAP
Resuming (15-weeks). Ex D Meagher. Trained here now. Trial was encouraging. May need this.
ILB
Back from a break. Started $20.00 and came in 7th last start Ballarat Synthetic and facing formidable opponents. First start for a new trainer and suited by the weight drop.
RSIS
Fresh after a break. At 19/1 came in 7th last time Ballarat Synthetic and facing stiffer opposition. First race for a new trainer and goes down in weight.
Career
13: 1-2-1
Rating · IRD
73
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
3: 0-1-0
Second-up
2: 1-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Wyong
1: 0-1-0
Track Randwick
6: 0-1-1
Track Eagle Farm
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1600m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
8: 0-1-1
Going Heavy
2: 0-1-0
Going Soft
3: 1-0-0
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 29% lower than Career Avg.
Trainer Career
Positive
Proven stable with a S/R of 20%
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -28% POT in their L100 Races
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 9% POT in L100 Runners
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 32% in L100 rides
Increased Dist
Positive
Distance rise from last start
AAP
First-up (22-weeks). Ex Tom Charlton. Has been trialling well. She's very well-weighted here if she can find her best.
ILB
Fresh from a break. At $41.00 struggled with the pace when 8th last run at Eagle Farm on a heavy surface but competing in a less challenging grade. Few more classier types in this race.
RP
Generally struggled of late and been a while since she achieved her only career win; held when eighth beaten 7l at Eagle Farm over 1m (Group 3) five months ago; has had some time off; representing new trainer today; others appeal more despite dropping in class.
RSIS
Resuming after a break. Started at 40/1 and faded to finish 8th last start at Eagle Farm on a heavy surface but stepping down to a lower level.
Career
8: 1-0-0
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
3: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Doomben
2: 1-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
2: 1-0-0
Track Gold Coast
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1050m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 1-0-0
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Well beaten LS
Negative
Not competitive last run
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 1
Track Stats
Positive
Excels at this track
Gap In Runs
Negative
Not raced for 35 days
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Freshened since resuming. Never in the call at Eagle Farm first up. Others more persuasive.
ILB
Average performance when 9th last start at Eagle Farm but will try to take advantage of the draw. Up in grade.
RP
Has winning form at this track; beaten 7l into ninth over 5f at Eagle Farm (handicap) 35 days ago; this is competitive and others have more pressing claims.
RSIS
Subpar when 9th last run at Eagle Farm but gets a favourable stall. Up against stronger opponents.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Onpace
Track Stats
Positive
Excels at this track
Improved L/S
Positive
Improved again last start
Wet To Dry
Negative
Coming from a wet to dry (Heavy 8 to Good 4) track may prove difficult
AAP
Showed courage and tenacity when nailed late in heavy ground Hcp (65) at Eagle Farm. Tougher alley. Hard to warm to.
ILB
Narrowly beaten last run at Eagle Farm on a heavy track and form has been improving over recent runs. Facing a stronger grade.
RSIS
Close to a win last time at Eagle Farm but rising in grade. Form has been improving over recent runs.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Onpace
Wet To Dry
Negative
Coming from a wet to dry (Heavy 8 to Good 4) track may prove difficult
AAP
Fresh. Performance just fair in rain affected going at Sunshine Coast when second-up at $18. Looking elsewhere.
ILB
Started at $18.00 and didn't find the line when 7th last run at Sunshine Coast on a heavy surface and stepping up to a higher level.
RSIS
Was 17/1 and couldn't stay in touch when 7th last run at Sunshine Coast and facing a stronger group of contenders.
Career
9: 2-0-3
Rating · IRD
76
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
3: 1-0-2
Second-up
2: 1-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Gold Coast
1: 1-0-0
Track Ipswich
1: 0-0-0
Track Grafton
2: 1-0-1
Distance 800m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1015m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
6: 2-0-2
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-1
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -35% POT in their L100 Races
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
In trailing position but couldn't quicken enough this venue. 3yo well drawn, and gets blinkers back on. Can improve.
ILB
Jumped at $19.00 and ran 5th last time around here but will be aiming for a soft run from the draw. In strong racing shape this preparation. Watch the betting.
RP
Not disgraced in fifth over 6½f here (handicap) two weeks ago; also engaged in race 2 at Ipswich.
RSIS
Was 18/1 and ran 5th last run at this venue but drawn the rails. Tracking very well of late. Respect the betting.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Midfield
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 1
AAP
Knuckled down on a soft deck for third this course over today's trip at longer odds. This looks a deeper race.
ILB
Strong effort to run into 3rd beaten by close to 2 1/2L last time around here and can save some energy from the barrier. Up against a more competitive field.
RSIS
Caught the eye when 3rd beaten by close to 2 1/2L last run here and has minimal work to do from the stall. Challenged by a tougher grade.