Shortest win price
Big Brad (3)
2.90
Armidale's putting up race five at 4:20 pm AEDT on Good 4 going—a Country Class 1 Handicap over 1300 metres in fine weather. Big Brad sits shortest in the market, with Midnight Rhythm, Bundoran, and Our Boy Tom next across the odds. The early pace groups have three runners headed onpace: Wolfcraig, Bundoran, and Sharpen The Knives will likely press forward from the jump, while The Big Ticket leads from barrier 7. Big Brad sits back from barrier 3 as a backmarker. The offsiders are Midnight Rhythm and Our Boy Tom—both will need to find rhythm in running.
Big Brad rates a real chance for the first line. The gelding's form comment flags he controlled Dubbo at second start and kicked away convincingly, coming back in distance today. Braith Nock steers from barrier 3. Bundoran jumps next favourite and the numbers jump off the page here—rated 100 by IRD after a dominant win at Moree over 1200m on soft going, responding strongly when pressed. Ben Looker is riding better than career average, and the map position exceeds market by 4 per cent, meaning he'll likely settle where he wants to be. Our Boy Tom won at track and distance; Jordie Thompson gets a kind barrier one and the gelding can fill minors if things go his way, though he emptied late over 1300m last time. Midnight Rhythm returns after 29 weeks and showed encouraging trial form, but the rider is a negative change and the trainer–jockey combo is losing today.
Sharpen The Knives comes in fresh off a 42–60 day break and sits well drawn from barrier 2 on pace. Uno Fred finished fastest last start and can pounce late if the tempo stacks up. The Big Ticket leads from the open draw but the stable is underperforming market expectation by 21 per cent. Wolfcraig carries early speed and sectionals suggest he'll go hard early from barrier 10, yet the trainer combo is ice cold. The form and the map suggest this is Big Brad and Bundoran's to lose.
Shortest win price
Big Brad (3)
2.90
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offmidfield
Midfield
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Midnight Rhythm · Negative
Rider
Negative rider change today
Wolfcraig · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Big Brad · Negative
Class Rise
Racing in stronger company
Bundoran · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 20% better than Career Avg.
Career
4: 1-2-0
Rating · IRD
83
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Armidale
2: 1-1-0
Track CurrentTrack
2: 1-1-0
Track Moree
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1400m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
4: 1-2-0
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Map Suits
Positive
Suitable Map, where runners in this position outperform market by 4%
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
Up In Dist
Positive
Racing at a more suitable distance
Track Stats
Positive
Excels at this track
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Back for second campaign (29-weeks). Not too far off the mark in his first preparation. Will have matured further and shown encouraging trial form. Among the dangers again fresh in this affair.
ILB
Resuming after a break of 29 weeks. Ran home strongly to win last start here and honest performer putting a tidy record together. Strong claims.
RP
Registered first success at the fourth time of asking over 7f here (handicap) when a just over 2l winner in April; returns from a break here; a likely player.
RSIS
Resuming after a break of 29 weeks. Ran over the top of them when winning last start at this track and solid career start. Must respect.
Career
7: 1-2-1
Rating · IRD
74
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
2: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Tamworth
2: 0-1-0
Track Armidale
2: 0-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1050m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 1-1-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-1
Going Unknown
1: 0-1-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Increased Dist
Positive
Distance rise from last start
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Resuming (32-weeks). In the minors first-up last campaign while trialling quietly in preparation for return. Has a tricky draw for return. Not out of this.
ILB
First up after 32 weeks and ran well when 2nd first up last preparation at Inverell. Has the early speed to burn across from the wide barrier. Others make far more appeal.
RP
Found life tough when 7l back in tenth over 7f here (handicap) in March; returns from a layoff; could be in the mix as shown he can get his head in front.
RSIS
Resuming and competitive effort when 2nd resuming last preparation at Inverell. Ran 4th in a trial at Tamworth on Oct 12th.
Rating · IRD
79
Speed map
Leader
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Controlled race and kicked away from them at Dubbo at his second race start. Coming back slightly in distance. Stays under strong notice.
ILB
Backs up quickly. Dictated terms in front to win by 3 1/4L last time at Dubbo. Possesses good closing speed. Could be in the mix.
RP
Readily accounted for his rivals over 7f at Dubbo (maiden) last Saturday; big player.
RSIS
On a short back up. Led and controlled the pace to win by 3 1/4L last start at Dubbo. Can go through the gears. Could feature here.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Onpace
AAP
Sent to lead, made a rapid retreat back through the field at Beaumont. Leads, handy. One for exotics.
ILB
Weakened under pressure when 8th last start at Newcastle but lining up against easier rivals.
RSIS
Tailed off to finish 8th last start at Newcastle but up against weaker rivals.
Career
15: 1-4-5
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
3: 0-1-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Tamworth
2: 0-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
2: 0-0-2
Track Scone
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1008m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1014m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
3: 0-1-2
Going Good
9: 0-3-3
Going Soft
6: 1-1-2
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 20% better than Career Avg.
Ideal Map
Positive
Map position exceeding market by 4%
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Honest
Positive
Finishing in the money lately
AAP
Honest type. Led, responded strongly to score in small field at Moree. On pacer. Big show.
ILB
Made every post a winner to win by a margin of 1 3/4L last start at Moree. Shows good early pace. Nice enough type to be supported.
RP
Has shown some recent improvement; got the job done by just under 2l at Moree over 6f (handicap) when off the mark last Friday; she can be taken on despite that win last time.
RSIS
Showed a clean pair of heels to win by a margin of 1 3/4L last run at Moree. Has shown early pace in races to date. Terrific hope.
Career
8: 1-1-0
Rating · IRD
72
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Warren
1: 1-0-0
Track Quirindi
1: 0-0-0
Track Dubbo
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1400m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 1-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-1-0
Going Soft
4: 1-0-0
Going Good
3: 0-0-0
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 239%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 6% POT in L100 Runners
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 44% in L100 rides
Increased Dist
Positive
Distance rise from last start
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Kicks off second campaign (16-weeks). Broke his maiden over 1600m at Warren last campaign. Has an adverse draw and rising in weight for return. Could give some cheek at odds.
ILB
Had a break from racing and returns to competition. Started $15.00 and ran 8th last start at Grafton but competing in a lower grade. Rough chance today.
RP
Behind The Big Ticket over 7f at Grafton (handicap) when beaten 7l in July; grade looks suitable; last two runs were below standard set by success three runs ago; should prove competitive.
RSIS
Resuming after a break. Was 14/1 and finished 8th last start at Grafton but up against a less competitive field. Success in a trial at Inverell on Oct 17th.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Onpace
AAP
Having a good preparation. Broke maiden at Tamworth 14 Sep. No threat to winner but ran on for the minors at Beaumont at longer odds. Very fit, has some claims.
ILB
Showed a good turn of foot when 2nd beaten by 3 1/4L last start at Newcastle and challenged by weaker competitors.
RSIS
Claimed a spot in the top three when 2nd beaten by 3 1/4L last start at Newcastle and facing a weaker group of contenders.
Rating · IRD
73
Speed map
Midfield
Jockey Booking
Negative
Daniel Smith current POT is 32% below Career Avg.
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Map Suits
Positive
Suitable Map, where runners in this position outperform market by 4%
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Fought bravely to the wire in the (Bm50) at Inverell first run back. This looks a sterner test.
ILB
In the money when 2nd last time at Inverell. Might have to make up considerable ground. Will need to elevate.
RP
Finished a decent runner-up of eight at Inverell over 5½f (handicap) three weeks ago; you have to go back a fair way to find her only win.
RSIS
Came in 2nd last time at Inverell on a heavy surface. Gets back and needs luck.
Career
13: 1-3-0
Rating · IRD
81
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
3: 0-1-0
Second-up
2: 0-2-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Armidale
3: 1-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
3: 1-0-0
Track Moree
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
3: 0-2-0
Distance 1300m
2: 1-0-0
Going Good
6: 1-1-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-1-0
Going Soft
4: 0-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 1
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Positive ride but emptied late at Moree over today's trip. Winner at track and distance. Can fill the minors here.
ILB
Faded away to finish 7th last run at Moree but has drawn to do little work. Large claim helps. Not without a chance.
RP
Winning form over C&D; not disgraced when seventh (Moree) last Friday upped to this distance; a lot on his plate here and he can be taken on.
RSIS
Was well beaten when 7th last time at Moree but gets a favourable stall. Jordie Thompson takes a large claim. Watch betting.
Career
33: 1-7-8
Rating · IRD
74
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
4: 0-1-2
Second-up
3: 0-1-0
Third-up
3: 0-1-1
Fourth-up
3: 0-1-1
Track Quirindi
1: 0-0-0
Track Newcastle
6: 0-2-2
Track Gunnedah
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
5: 0-2-1
Distance 1250m
3: 0-1-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
14: 1-1-3
Going Heavy
2: 0-1-0
Going Soft
17: 0-5-5
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Fresh
Positive
Freshened up. Had a break of 42-60 days
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Winless Prep
Negative
Expect the drought to continue
AAP
Let-up (49-days). Long winning drought. Every chance but compounded this venue over this distance. Smoky place prospect at best.
ILB
Back from a let up. Started at $16.00 and was well beaten when 6th last start around here but gets a favourable draw. Very minor chance.
RP
Not far behind Tickle My Tosen when sixth (dropped to this trip) 49 days ago; a course winner; form lately has been a mixed bag; record suggests she is usually one to take on for win purposes so unlikely to do better than a supporting role.
RSIS
Freshened for this. At 15/1 folded up in the straight when 6th last run around here but drawn nicely.
Career
42: 1-2-2
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
4: 0-0-0
Second-up
3: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Taree
8: 1-2-2
Track Scone
2: 0-0-0
Track Grafton
5: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
4: 0-0-0
Distance 1106m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
3: 0-0-0
Going Good
18: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
14: 1-1-1
Going Soft
10: 0-1-1
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 21%
Ideal Map
Positive
Map position exceeding market by 4%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature
AAP
Dropped out to last and never sighted at Port Macquarie second-up. First time around Armidale. Regular under achiever.
ILB
Started $151.00 and struggled with the pace when 11th last run at Port Macquarie. Should muster plenty of early speed. Hard to recommend with any confidence.
RP
Finished last of 11 over 6f at Port Macquarie (handicap) two weeks ago; a lot on his plate here and has some questions to answer.
RSIS
At 150/1 faded to finish 11th last time at Port Macquarie. Should race on the pace.
Career
19: 1-0-2
Rating · IRD
74
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
4: 0-0-0
Second-up
3: 0-0-0
Third-up
3: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
3: 1-0-1
Track Grafton
1: 0-0-0
Track Gatton
1: 0-0-0
Track Kempsey
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1210m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1350m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
11: 0-0-2
Going Heavy
4: 0-0-0
Going Soft
4: 1-0-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 26% in Last 100 Rides
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 39% Profit on Turnover
Key Jockey
Positive
Luke Rolls winning at 13% POT in last 100 rides
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Wet To Dry
Negative
Coming from a wet to dry (Heavy 8 to Good 4) track may prove difficult
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Long losing streak. Raced in back half and was never in a position to mount a serious challenge at Grafton. Best viewed as a rough place hope.
ILB
Started $14.00 and tailed off to finish 9th last run at Grafton on a heavy track. Likely to settle back in the field. Entitled to be big odds.
RP
Just the one win to his name; finished ninth, beaten 7l, over 7f at Grafton (handicap) last month; others appeal more given many of his rivals are in good form.
RSIS
Started at 13/1 and weakened under pressure when 9th last time at Grafton. Expected to settle towards the tail.