Armidale (NSW) horses tips & previews

15 Nov, 3:24 am AEDT

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Armidale (NSW), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Sun 8 Nov, 11:00 am AEDT

Meetings · Sun, 8 NovArmidale (NSW)Change

Race 3 — The Guyra Community Mdn Hcp 1100m · jumps Sun 8 Nov, 3:05 pm AEDT

Race preview

Welcome to Armidale for The Guyra Community Mdn Hcp over 1100m on a good4 track with fine weather, set to jump at 3:05 pm AEDT. The win market order has Boa Vista heading the betting line, closely followed by Wild Romeo, Hangonaseq, Mossrocket, Breakage, Little Surprise, Smashit, Platinum Card, and Fort Laramie rounding out the chances. Let us dive straight into the numbers that jump off the page and find some value.

Boa Vista opens as the shortest runner in the market for trainers Brett & Georgie Cavanough, jumping from barrier 4 with Madeline Owen steering. This combination is outperforming market expectations by a massive 135 percent, and the mare brings strong recent form with back-to-back seconds at Scone and Tamworth, showing plenty of courage after heavy support last time out. Wild Romeo sits next in the market order, heading to the track for Stirling Osland from barrier 7 with Charlotte Murrell in the saddle. This runner brings early speed which is a major advantage on this circuit, looking to bounce back after retreating at Canberra following a solid second at Queanbeyan.

Digging deeper into the race data, Hangonaseq lines up for the Cavanough stable from barrier 3 with Braith Nock aboard, dropping back in distance to 1100m after going home tamely over 1400m at Dubbo last start. Meanwhile, Mossrocket resumes for a new stable from barrier 8 with Jordie Thompson booked, stepping out for the second preparation after previously being with Peter Snowden. Boa Vista rates a real chance to break through here given the strong stable form and map suitability, but keep an eye on how the speed map unfolds with Wild Romeo pressing forward early.

Race notes

MDN,MDN HCP,Maiden
GOOD4
Fine
9 runners

Shortest win price

Boa Vista (1)

2.00

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Backmarker

4Hangonaseq

Offmidfield

2Little Surprise
6Platinum Card

Offpace

8Fort Laramie

Onpace

1Boa Vista
5Mossrocket

Firststart

7Breakage

Leader

3Wild Romeo
10Smashit

Boa Vista · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are out performing market expectations by 135%
Little Surprise · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are out performing market expectations by 239%
Wild Romeo · Positive
Early Splits
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Hangonaseq · Positive
Key Jockey
Braith Nock winning at 9% POT in last 100 rides

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace

1Boa VistaJ: Madeline Owen·T: Brett & Georgie Cavanough459kg5 9 7 2 29: 0-3-1$2.00$1.12

Career

9: 0-3-1

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating100%
Closing Speed60%

Record

First-up
3: 0-1-1
Second-up
2: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Tamworth
1: 0-1-0
Track Ballarat Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
4: 0-2-0
Distance 1100m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
6: 0-2-1
Going Soft
2: 0-1-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

2Tamworth1000m12 Oct 2026 · MDN-SW · SOFT50.31L
2Scone900m25 Sept 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD41.86L
7Ballarat Synthetic1000m16 June 2026 · MDN-SW · SYNTHETIC7L
9Geelong1100m22 May 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · SOFT59.8L
5Albury900m23 Apr 2026 · MDN SW · GOOD42.9L
3Geelong1100m1 Apr 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD43L
9Caulfield900m13 Aug 2025 · Barrier Trial6.1L
7Morphettville1200m26 Apr 2025 · 2yo · GOOD49.9L

Insights

Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 135%
Map Suits
Positive
Suitable Map, where runners in this position outperform market by 4%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early

Comments

AAP

Two good runs under new trainer. Keeps knocking on the door. Brave after showing speed under heavy support at Tamworth second-up. This looks within her reach.

ILB

Just missed last time at Tamworth. Will be positive in the run early. Placed at every start this preparation. Strong chance.

Favourite and only narrowly beaten over 5f at Tamworth (maiden) when in front of three of these last month; has taken a step forward the last twice but still winless and defeats stacking up (nine on the bounce); probably unlikely to trouble the principals as not in the habit of winning recently.

RSIS

Just shy of the win last run at Tamworth. Should come to hand quickly. Has run into the money 2 from 2 attempts lately. Will go very close.

2Little SurpriseJ: Angel Brennan·T: K T Dixon957.5kg2 5 7 2 45: 0-1-0$26.00$3.90

Career

5: 0-1-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offmidfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed20%
Rating40%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Armidale
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Track Quirindi
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 950m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
4: 0-1-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

4Moree950m30 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)4.5L
2Warwick800m14 Oct 2025 · Barrier Trial1.7L
7Armidale1100m27 Feb 2025 · Maiden · GOOD412.18L
5Walcha1000m7 Feb 2025 · Maiden · GOOD42.23L
2Quirindi1100m28 Oct 2024 · Maiden · GOOD31.6L
8Tamworth1200m30 Sept 2024 · Maiden · SOFT64L
12Moree950m1 Sept 2024 · Maiden · GOOD421.9L

Insights

Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 239%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 6% POT in L100 Runners
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 44% in L100 rides
Ideal Map
Positive
Map position exceeding market by 1%
Long Break
Negative
Resumes from a 619 day break (> 300 days)
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Resuming (88-weeks). Ex Gavin Groth in NSW. Went close in Maiden company first-up last campaign. Can make a positive start for new trainer after long spell.

ILB

Resumes from a spell of 88 weeks. At $4.50 below par performance when 7th last start at the track. First start for a new trainer. This looks a tough assignment.

Winless in five starts but has shown promise with second her top showing; last of seven in a maiden last February; first start for stable; returns from a lengthy absence; passed over.

RSIS

First run back from a break of 88 weeks. Was 7/2 and only fair when 7th last time around here. Coming to a new trainer.

3Wild RomeoJ: Charlotte Murrell·T: Stirling Osland757.5kg4 4 4 2 108: 0-2-0$4.00$1.36

Career

8: 0-2-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating80%
Closing Speed20%

Record

First-up
2: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Corowa
1: 0-0-0
Track Canberra
4: 0-0-0
Track Queanbeyan
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1080m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 900m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-1-0
Going Good
5: 0-1-0

Last starts

10Canberra1000m18 Sept 2026 · MDN · GOOD311.82L
2Queanbeyan1000m8 Sept 2026 · MDN · SOFT50.9L
4Corowa900m31 Aug 2026 · MDN-SW · SOFT53.9L
4Canberra1080m24 July 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD31.9L
4Albury1000m19 Mar 2026 · CTRY MDN-SW · SOFT75L
4Canberra1000m20 Feb 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD410.4L
5Canberra1200m6 Feb 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD42.5L
2Albury1000m19 Jan 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD42L

Insights

Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Fresh
Positive
Freshened up. Had a break of 42-60 days
Winkers Off
Positive
Winkers coming off this start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Let-up (51-days). Ex Luke Pepper. Trained here now. Forwardly placed, retreated at Canberra. Can hit the ground running for new stable.

ILB

Freshened up. Started at $16.00 and faded to finish 10th last time at Canberra. Expecting improvement here. First appearance for a new trainer. Should be in the finish.

Has kicked on in his last couple of races; last of ten at Canberra over 5f (handicap) 51 days ago; first start for current trainer; easy enough to take on.

RSIS

Freshened for this. Was 15/1 and faded away to finish 10th last start at Canberra. May see an upturn in form. First race for a new trainer. Good chance in this.

4HangonaseqJ: Braith Nock·T: Brett & Georgie Cavanough357kg3 6 92: 0-0-0$7.50$2.10

Career

2: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo40%
Early Speed20%
Rating80%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Dubbo
1: 0-0-0
Track Tamworth
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

9Dubbo1400m31 Oct 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD36.06L
6Tamworth1000m12 Oct 2026 · MDN-SW · SOFT51.37L
3Tamworth1000m23 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)2.8L

Insights

Key Jockey
Positive
Braith Nock winning at 9% POT in last 100 rides
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Went home tamely at Dubbo at second start at $11. Switching to 1100m. All the better, capable of making an impact.

ILB

On a short back up. Started $11.00 and weakened under pressure when 9th last start at Dubbo. Expected to rebound but down in trip. Will be there at the business end.

First-time blinkers didn't work over 7f at Dubbo (maiden) when beaten 6l last week; cannot be ignored.

RSIS

On a short turnaround. Started 10/1 and weakened to finish 9th last start at Dubbo. Capable of a strong comeback but coming back in distance. Expected to be competitive.

5MossrocketJ: Jordie Thompson·T: Ms S Grills857kg5 9 73: 0-0-0$5.00$1.55

Career

3: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed20%
Rating60%
Closing Speed20%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Kembla Grange
1: 0-0-0
Track Scone
1: 0-0-0
Track Newcastle
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1250m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

7Scone1300m31 May 2026 · MDN · HEAVY87.3L
9Kembla Grange1200m16 May 2026 · CG&E MDN · SOFT52.7L
5Newcastle1250m2 May 2026 · CGE MDN-SW · GOOD45.9L

Insights

Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Ideal Map
Positive
Map position exceeding market by 1%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Resuming for second prep (23-weeks). Upside off spell. Ex Peter Snowden in NSW. Can hit the ground running for new stable.

ILB

Fresh today. Was $3.60 and couldn't stay in touch when 7th last time at Scone. Racing for a new trainer. Keep safe.

Seventh beaten 7l over 6½f at Scone (handicap) in May; now running for a new trainer; returns from a break today.

RSIS

Back from a break. Was 13/5 and tailed off to finish 7th last start at Scone. Interesting gear change of blinkers off first time. First start for a new trainer.

6Platinum CardJ: Zac Wadick·T: Melissa Dennett557kg3 3 4 72: 0-0-1$81.00$7.00

Career

2: 0-0-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offmidfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-1
Track Inverell
1: 0-0-1
Track Tamworth
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1050m
1: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-1
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

7Tamworth1000m12 Oct 2026 · MDN-SW · SOFT54.28L
4Tamworth1000m23 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)7L
3Inverell1050m22 Nov 2025 · MDN · HEAVY101.5L
3Tamworth1000m4 Nov 2025 · Barrier Trial3.1L

Insights

Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start

Comments

AAP

Unable to make an impression at Tamworth at second start. Only for exotics.

ILB

Odds of $31.00 and couldn't maintain the pace when 7th last run at Tamworth. Blinkers go off for the first time. Entitled to be big odds.

Finished last of seven at Tamworth when behind three of these four weeks ago in a maiden; has to be taken seriously.

RSIS

Odds of 30/1 and struggled with the pace when 7th last run at Tamworth. Blinkers go off for the first time.

7BreakageJ: Grady Spokes·T: M K Mason656.5kg3 7 4 5$17.00$3.40

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed50%
Rating40%
Closing Speed50%

Last starts

5Doomben1000m22 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)4.6L
4Gold Coast850m8 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)6.8L
7Doomben1000m2 June 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)7.8L
3Deagon650m20 Jan 2026 · Barrier Trial4.6L

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Fresh
Positive
Freshened up. Had a break of 42-60 days
Market Watch
Negative
Keep eye on betting moves

Comments

AAP

Trials (4:0-0-1). Out of a stakes-placed mare. Soundly beaten in 4 trials and will need to find more under race conditions. Others profiling stronger.

ILB

Racing as a debutant 3yo by Home Affairs for Mark Mason. Fitter for a trial at Deagon on Jan 20th. Keep your eye on the market.

Conceding experience to all her rivals; running for the first time; she's worth a go with signs of encouragement in profile.

RSIS

3yo by Home Affairs having initial appearance for Mark Mason. Placed 3rd in a trial at Deagon on Jan 20th.

8Fort LaramieJ: Scott Sweedman·T: Danni Schreck156kg7 9 7 2 98: 0-1-0$51.00$5.00

Career

8: 0-1-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
3: 0-1-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Armidale
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Track Kilmore
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
3: 0-1-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Going Unknown
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
4: 0-0-0

Last starts

9Armidale1100m29 Mar 2026 · MDN · GOOD415.7L
2Walcha1200m7 Feb 2026 · MDN-SW2.6L
7Cranbourne1400m4 Jan 2025 · Maiden · GOOD37.12L
9Yarra Valley1200m20 Dec 2024 · Maiden · GOOD44.86L
7Kilmore1100m24 Nov 2024 · Maiden · SOFT725.95L
6Ballarat Synthetic1200m18 June 2024 · Maiden · SYNTHETIC5.2L
7Bendigo1100m22 May 2024 · Maiden · GOOD44.29L
6Cranbourne1000m26 Apr 2024 · Maiden · SOFT55.23L

Insights

Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 1%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -79% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 56%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up

Comments

AAP

First-up (32-weeks). Third outing for new trainer/ this region. Placed first-up last campaign. Faces a challenging return.

ILB

First up and competitive effort when 2nd first up last preparation at Walcha. Will appreciate a good draw. Watch the betting.

Beaten 16l in March; stepped up on his last two starts but still winless and defeats stacking up (eight on the bounce); this just his second run in a handicap; returns from a break here; others have more pressing claims.

RSIS

Resuming and ran 2nd resuming last preparation at Walcha. Gets the perfect stall.

9Love To FlirtScratched3––––

Rating · IRD

Figures

Jockey50%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo50%
Early Speed50%
Rating20%
Closing Speed60%

Insights

Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start

Comments

AAP

Failed to flatter at Toowoomba at her second race start. Hard to warm to here.

ILB

On a short turnaround. Tailed off when 9th last time at Gatton.

RSIS

Backs up quickly. Lacked competitiveness when 9th last start at Gatton.

10SmashitJ: Daniel Smith·T: T J Wicks256kg9 11 5 4 115: 0-0-0$23.00$3.80

Career

5: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed20%
Rating40%
Closing Speed20%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Scone
3: 0-0-0
Track Tamworth
2: 0-0-0
Distance 900m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-0

Last starts

11Scone1200m23 Oct 2026 · Maiden · SOFT511.13L
4Tamworth1000m12 Oct 2026 · MDN-SW · SOFT50.67L
5Scone900m25 Sept 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD49.29L
11Tamworth1000m14 Oct 2024 · Maiden · SOFT712.13L
9Scone900m27 Sept 2024 · Maiden · HEAVY911.15L

Insights

Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 32% lower than Career Avg.
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Hot Trainer
Positive
Terry Wicks in good form, out performing market 22%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 23% POT in L100 Runners
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature

Comments

AAP

Lightly raced runner whose best effort remains a 4th from 5 career appearances. On pace before tiring in the run home at Scone. Drops back a notch in trip. Smoky place prospect at best.

ILB

Odds of $101.00 and didn't find the line when 11th last start at Scone but gets a favourable alley. Need a lot of luck to be close to winning this.

Last of 11 over 6f at Scone (handicap) last month; yet to manage better than fourth in her five races; running in a handicap for only the second time; others have more pressing claims.

RSIS

Was 100/1 and gave away some ground when 11th last run at Scone but will try to take advantage of the draw.

Odds correct as at Sun 8 Nov, 3:10 pm AEDT. Odds can change.

Past meetings

Sun 20 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 7 races