Shortest win price
Paper Doll (3)
1.85
Welcome to Warren for the Harry 'Mab' Fuller Memorial Super Mdn Hcp over 1400m on a good 3 track with fine weather. The win market has Paper Doll heading the betting closely followed by Hollywood Hunk, Texan Star, and Grey Belief rounding out the main chances in the early quote. The speed map suggests runners like The Beast, Grey Belief, Texan Star, and Trapeazy will look to push forward and be up on the pace.
Paper Doll is well found by the market and comes into this third-up in a new stable after putting together a consistent string of placings, including a solid midfield effort at Coonabarabran last time out over 1200m. Hollywood Hunk shows some early promise and rates a real chance after a gutsy third at Coonabarabran where the extra distance here should suit. Texan Star brings strong runner-up form from Dubbo over this exact 1400m journey and appeals as another major player.
Looking further down the order, Grey Belief maps on the pace and showed great courage when finishing second over 1600m at Dubbo last start, making the drop back in trip an interesting test. The numbers say keep an eye on how the speed unfolds early with a few natural on-spacers looking to dictate terms. Grab the program and check out the form because this maiden handicap jumps off the page as a competitive betting heat.
Shortest win price
Paper Doll (3)
1.85
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
The Beast · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 9% in Last 100 Rides
Paper Doll · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -24% POT in their L100 Races
Hollywood Hunk · Positive
Profitable Trainer
Stable runners going at 5% POT in L100 Runners
Mega Missile · Negative
Trainer SR
Brett Thompson striking at just 3%
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Firststart
Market Watch
Negative
Keep eye on betting moves
AAP
Trials (2:0-0-0). Last in both lead-up trials. Prefer to see at this stage.
ILB
Initial race appearance 5yo by Prized Icon for trainer Cassandra Stummer. Market as guide.
RSIS
Cassandra Stummer 5yo by Prized Icon having first race start.
Career
13: 0-5-3
Rating · IRD
89
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
3: 0-2-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-1
Third-up
2: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Tamworth
1: 0-0-0
Track Hawkesbury
2: 0-2-0
Track Newcastle
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1100m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
3: 0-1-0
Going Good
7: 0-4-1
Going Heavy
3: 0-0-2
Going Soft
3: 0-1-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 9% in Last 100 Rides
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 8%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -31% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 35%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Sent out $4.80 when unable to threaten at Dubbo over this trip. Has early speed. First time around Warren. Lacks appeal here.
ILB
On a quick turnaround. Started at $4.80 and folded up in the straight when 8th last run at Dubbo. Should improve here. Has definite claims.
RP
Held when eighth of 11 in a maiden at Dubbo last week; should get involved on the pick of his form.
RSIS
Backing up quickly. Started 4/1 and faded away to finish 8th last run at Dubbo. Should improve here. Expecting to settle positively. Can take this out.
Career
14: 0-9-0
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
4: 0-1-0
Second-up
2: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Murwillumbah
1: 0-1-0
Track Grafton
1: 0-1-0
Track Orange
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1181m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
5: 0-3-0
Going Good
8: 0-4-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-1-0
Going Soft
5: 0-4-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -24% POT in their L100 Races
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 33%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
AAP
Third run now in new stable/region. Sound showings this campaign. Midfield, picked up solidly at Coonabarabran second-up. This looks a nice race for the racemare.
ILB
Jumped at $3.70 and crept into 4th last time at Coonabarabran and has a nice advantage with a good gate. Will attract plenty of interest.
RP
Out of the money, beaten just over 1l, when fourth at Coonabarabran over 6f (handicap) two weeks ago; not been able to get her head in front lately so unlikely to do better than a supporting role.
RSIS
Started at 11/4 and pushed past some when 4th last run at Coonabarabran and gets a favourable stall. Strong chance.
Career
2: 0-0-1
Rating · IRD
84
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Coonamble
1: 0-0-0
Track Coonabarabran
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
2: 0-0-1
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 5% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 12%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
AAP
Showing some early promise. Handily placed and gave his all at Coonabarabran at second appearance at double-figure odds. More ground a plus. Right in this.
ILB
Amongst the placegetters when 3rd last time at Coonabarabran. Watch for a sign in the market.
RP
Not beaten far when third at Coonabarabran over 6f (handicap) last month; running in a handicap for just the second time.
RSIS
Claimed a spot in the top three when 3rd last start at Coonabarabran. Watch betting.
Career
2: 0-1-0
Rating · IRD
78
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
1: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Dubbo
1: 0-0-0
Track Narromine
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-1-0
Trainer SR
Negative
Brett Thompson striking at just 3%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 61%
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Started $20 when battled home in Maiden company at Dubbo. Keener on others.
ILB
On a short turnaround. Started at $20.00 and pushed past some when 4th last time at Dubbo. Appears tested in this event.
RP
Not disgraced when fourth in a maiden (Dubbo) last Saturday; finished ahead of The Beast but was behind Texan Star; others more appealing.
RSIS
On a quick back up. Started 19/1 and improved late to finish 4th last time at Dubbo.
Career
7: 0-0-1
Rating · IRD
82
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
3: 0-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Dubbo
2: 0-0-0
Track Canterbury
2: 0-0-0
Track Coonamble
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
4: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
7: 0-0-1
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 28% better than Career Avg.
Trainer SR
Negative
Kieren Hazelton striking at just 7%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -28% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 34%
Hot Jockey
Positive
Kody Nestor in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 25%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 33%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
AAP
Placed Country Boosted Mdn at Coonamble 11 Oct. Not disgraced at Coonabarabran when second-up. Added journey should assist. All the better, can make his presence felt.
ILB
Was $13.00 and ran 8th last start at Coonabarabran but will try to take advantage of the gate. Some hope in this event.
RP
Consistent performer and has found improvement of late; respectable eighth over 6f at Coonabarabran (handicap) last month; big chance as recent display was promising.
RSIS
Odds of 12/1 and finished 8th last time at Coonabarabran but can find a nice position from the draw.
Career
5: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
75
Speed map
Leader
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Port Macquarie
1: 0-0-0
Track Scone
1: 0-0-0
Track Randwick
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1108m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
4: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 7% in Last 100 Rides
Jockey Booking
Positive
Diego Montes De Oca 23% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Form
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectations 45%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
AAP
Still learning his craft. Off the speed, picked up soundly and wasn't beaten far at Coonabarabran second-up. Good draw. All the better, sound claims.
ILB
Odds of $16.00 and finished 7th last time at Coonabarabran. Should come to hand quickly. Need a lot of luck to be threatening these.
RP
Has not had much racing; solid run when seventh over 6f at Coonabarabran (handicap) last month; he can make a bold bid as recent performance was encouraging.
RSIS
Started 15/1 and ran 7th last start at Coonabarabran. Should muster plenty of early toe.
Career
2: 0-0-1
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-0
Track Harden
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Firm
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Hot Trainer
Positive
Todd Smith in good form, out performing market 45%
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Down In Weight
Positive
Drops 8kg from LS run
AAP
In the minor spoils but still well held at Harden for new trainer. This looks more demanding.
ILB
Ran well when 3rd last run at Harden. Expected to settle towards the rear. Simply cannot have.
RP
Not beaten too far when third at Harden last month on first outing for new trainer in a maiden; probably unlikely to trouble the principals.
RSIS
Honest race when 3rd last run at Harden. Likely to get back.
Career
6: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
72
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Forbes
1: 0-0-0
Track Muswellbrook
2: 0-0-0
Track Scone
2: 0-0-0
Distance 900m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1280m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Jockey Booking
Negative
Jess Del Frari current POT is 37% below Career Avg.
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -39% POT in their L100 Races
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 46% in L100 rides
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature
AAP
Competitive at times without ever really troubling. Raced in back half and failed to issue a serious challenge at Coonabarabran. Others with more appeal.
ILB
Started $91.00 and didn't threaten when 10th last time at Coonabarabran. Struggling this campaign with no placings from 6 attempts. Very hard to have.
RP
Finished tenth but wasn't beaten too far (just over 3l) over 6f at Coonabarabran (handicap) last month; one to consider if replicating best previous efforts.
RSIS
Started 90/1 and didn't threaten when 10th last start at Coonabarabran. Has struggled so far lately.
Career
19: 0-2-3
Rating · IRD
84
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-1
Track Dubbo
3: 0-1-0
Track Queanbeyan
1: 0-0-0
Track Grafton
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2000m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
4: 0-0-0
Going Good
13: 0-2-3
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 111%
Improved L/S
Positive
Improved again last start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Up on the pace early and kept on courageously Plate (C1) at Dubbo. Switching to 1400m. Well into preparation now, looks a safer place proposition.
ILB
Backs up quickly. Did well when 2nd last run at Dubbo. Could be in the mix.
RP
Has kicked on in her last couple of races and has run well in defeat a number of times; solid second at Dubbo over 1m (conditions race) last month.
RSIS
On a short back up. Competitive effort when 2nd last time at Dubbo. Could be in the mix.
Career
51: 0-5-4
Rating · IRD
76
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
4: 0-0-1
Second-up
3: 0-1-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Coffs Harbour
1: 0-0-0
Track Tamworth
1: 0-0-0
Track Doomben
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1204m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1350m
2: 0-1-0
Going Soft
21: 0-2-3
Going Good
22: 0-2-1
Going Heavy
8: 0-1-0
Wet To Dry
Negative
Coming from a wet to dry (Heavy 8 to Good 4) track may prove difficult
AAP
Ridden cold and picked up late for a distant third in the Country Boosted Mdn Plate at Scone over today's trip. Usually gets back. First time around Warren. Distance suits but serial maiden.
ILB
Finished strongly when 3rd beaten by 5 3/4L last start at Scone.
RP
String of near-misses of late; recent form has a decent look to it; comfortably beaten finishing third (Scone) last month in a maiden; also engaged in race 1 at Armidale.
RSIS
Did well to run 3rd last time at Scone.
Career
30: 0-6-6
Rating · IRD
77
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-1-0
Third-up
2: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-1-0
Track Avoca
1: 0-0-0
Track Parkes
1: 0-0-0
Track Forbes
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
5: 0-0-0
Distance 1205m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
9: 0-3-2
Going Heavy
4: 0-1-0
Going Soft
10: 0-1-3
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Wide Draw
Negative
Likely to get caught wide
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature
AAP
Settled back and didn't figure in the 3yo+ Super Mdn at Coonabarabran. Fit from racing, only for exotics.
ILB
At $19.00 not in contention when 11th last time at Coonabarabran. A 30 start maiden. Needs significant improvement.
RP
Towards the rear of 14 over 6f at Coonabarabran (handicap) two weeks ago; tends to find at least one too good; hard enough to fancy.
RSIS
Started at 18/1 and not in contention when 11th last start at Coonabarabran. Yet to break maiden status after 30 runs.
Career
14: 0-3-2
Rating · IRD
84
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
2: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Moruya
2: 0-0-1
Track Sapphire Coast
4: 0-1-0
Track Canberra
5: 0-0-1
Distance 1205m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1750m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
7: 0-1-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-1-0
Going Soft
6: 0-1-1
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 10%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -27% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 30%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Down In Weight
Positive
Drops 4kg from LS run
AAP
Third outing for new trainer/ this region. Gave a good sight making the frame at Dubbo over this journey when firmed from $7 into $5.50. First time around Warren. Keep safe.
ILB
Backing up quickly for this race. Finished amongst the placegetters when 2nd beaten by 3 1/4L last start at Dubbo and dropping weight. Watch betting.
RP
Seems to have stepped up on previous form the last twice; fair runner-up of 11 in a maiden (Dubbo) when ahead of a couple of these a week ago.
RSIS
On a quick turnaround. Showed a good turn of foot when 2nd last time at Dubbo and will appreciate the drop in weight. Betting is the best guide.
Career
5: 0-0-1
Rating · IRD
86
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
2: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Coonabarabran
1: 0-0-0
Track Tamworth
1: 0-0-0
Track Canberra
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
4: 0-0-1
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
AAP
Off the speed, picked up soundly and wasn't beaten far at Coonabarabran for new stable. Can play a role.
ILB
Was $9.50 and ran 6th last time at Coonabarabran. Can't leave out of your calculations.
RP
Five-race maiden but has managed to finish third; respectable effort over 6f at Coonabarabran (handicap) 14 days ago on debut for this trainer.
RSIS
Started at 17/2 and came in 6th last start at Coonabarabran. Keep safe.
Career
8: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
73
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Dubbo
1: 0-0-0
Track Orange
1: 0-0-0
Track Moree
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 950m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
4: 0-0-0
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 3%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -57% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 61%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Limited
Negative
Hasn’t featured at all in all career runs
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Not Trustworthy
Negative
May be competing at this level for some time
AAP
Unable to make an impression at Moree. Hard to make a case.
ILB
Was $41.00 and didn't find the line when 6th last start at Moree. Unplaced in all races to date. Has struggled so far this campaign. Much prefer the look of others in this race.
RP
Found life tough when 6l back in sixth over 6f at Moree (handicap) last week.
RSIS
Was 40/1 and didn't attack the line when 6th last run at Moree. Yet to make an impression in 8 runs.