Newcastle (NSW) horses tips & previews

15 Nov, 3:24 am AEDT

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Newcastle (NSW), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Sat 3 Oct, 10:00 am AEST

Meetings · Sat, 3 OctNewcastle (NSW)Change

Race 2 — Klosters Hcp (C1) 1500m · jumps Sat 3 Oct, 2:09 pm AEST

Race preview

Welcome to Newcastle for the Klosters Hcp (C1) over 1500m on a Good 4 track under overcast skies. The win market order has Varjak heading the betting lines, closely followed by Wallace Station, Sea Level, and Freddie Bassett holding down the early market interest. Let us dive right into the numbers that jump out and see how this Class 1 sets up!

The form behind those shorter prices points to some intriguing chances. Varjak sits right at the top of the market order, drawn well in barrier 1 for Louise Day and the C Maher stable. This runner kept coming and just fell short at Illawarra Grange when finishing second over 1450m last start, stripping fitter and commanding respect here. Wallace Station is right there in the market too, jumping from barrier 6 with Rory Hutchings steering for Michael Freedman. This runner put together a win at Newcastle over 1250m before a solid effort at Illawarra Grange, and the stats say the jockey is outperforming career average figures lately. Sea Level is another one to watch from barrier 7 with Aaron Bullock retaining the ride for John O'Shea and Tom Charlton, coming off a gritty maiden win at Tuncurry where they showed the fastest overall finishing sectionals.

Further down the speed maps and fields, Freddie Bassett lines up from barrier 4 for Mitchell Bell and trainers Annabel and Rob Archibald, returning from a 22-week break with tidy form through the last campaign including a Warwick Farm win. Wallace Station maps as the leader in this group, while Varjak looks to settle back. The numbers suggest several of these runners rate a real chance in an open Newcastle contest, so back your judgment and up ya go!

Race notes

3UP CL1 HCP,3yo+,CL1,Class 1
GOOD4
Overcast
7 runners

Shortest win price

Varjak (2)

2.15

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Backmarker

4Sea Level

Midfield

2Varjak
6Renoir

Onpace

1Freddie Bassett
3Siccius

Leader

5Wallace Station
7Air Kiss

Freddie Bassett · Negative
Trainer ROI
Trainers runners currently losing 24% Profit on Turnover
Varjak · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -37% POT in their L100 Races
Siccius · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -40% POT in their L100 Races
Sea Level · Positive
Fast Finisher
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace

1Freddie BassettJ: Mitchell Bell·T: Annabel & Rob Archibald462kg5 1 6 8 68: 1-2-0$10.00$3.40

Career

8: 1-2-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
3: 0-1-0
Second-up
2: 1-1-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Track Goulburn
1: 0-1-0
Track Rosehill
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1600m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
4: 1-1-0
Going Soft
4: 0-1-0

Last starts

6Tamworth1200m23 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)4L
8Scone900m9 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)10L
6Randwick Kensington1800m27 Apr 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD47.1L
1Warwick Farm1600m15 Apr 2026 · 3yo · GOOD4-1.21
5Wyong1350m28 Mar 2026 · MDN · SOFT50.7L
4Randwick1050m16 Mar 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)1.6L
6Geelong2200m23 Oct 2025 · 3yo · SOFT71.6L
10Rosehill1800m11 Oct 2025 · 3yo · GOOD47.1L

Insights

Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 24% Profit on Turnover
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Up In Dist
Positive
Racing at a more suitable distance
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Resuming (22-weeks). Form tidy through last campaign, including a Warwick Farm win. Can play a role fresh.

ILB

Back from a break. Odds of $8.00 and struggled with the pace when 6th last run at Randwick Kensington but up against a less competitive field. Rising in weight. Some respect.

Beaten 7l when sixth of eight over 1m1f at Randwick (handicap) in April; can be a player at this level and has shown some recent improvement; has had some time off; one to consider if excused most recent run as achieved handicap success two runs back.

RSIS

First run back. Odds of 7/1 and didn't find the line when 6th last start at Randwick Kensington but up against a less competitive field.

2VarjakJ: Louise Day·T: C Maher160kg10 9 5 3 28: 1-1-2$2.15$1.26

Career

8: 1-1-2

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed20%
Rating100%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
4: 1-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-1-1
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Illawarra Grange
1: 0-1-0
Track Kembla Grange
2: 0-0-1
Track Rosehill
2: 0-0-0
Distance 2000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1400m
3: 0-0-1
Going Good
5: 0-1-1
Going Soft
3: 1-0-1

Last starts

2Illawarra Grange1450m17 Sept 2026 · CL1 · GOOD40.5L
3Kembla Grange1400m29 Aug 2026 · CL1 · GOOD42.3L
5Warwick Farm1208m18 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(7)5.5L
9Warwick Farm792m4 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)2.5L
10Gosford1600m25 Apr 2026 · BM64 · GOOD47L
5Rosehill1030m17 Apr 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)4.8L
7Rosehill2000m28 Mar 2026 · 3yo · SOFT67.7L
3Gosford1600m14 Mar 2026 · CL1 · SOFT50.5L

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -37% POT in their L100 Races
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 17% POT in L100 Runners
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 1
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Kept coming and just fell short at Illawarra Grange second-up. Drawn favourably. Stripping fitter, commands respect here.

ILB

Placed 2nd last start at Illawarra Grange and drawn the rails. Has run into the money 2 from 2 attempts this campaign. Can go through the gears. Likeable type and a major player.

Missed out by half a length (Illawarra Grange) 16 days ago; been struggling to get his head in front recently so hard enough to fancy.

RSIS

Honest race when 2nd last start at Illawarra Grange and drawn beautifully. Has not missed the placings of late in 2 attempts. Shows good closing pace. Will attract plenty of interest.

3SicciusJ: Andrew Gibbons·T: K A Lees258.5kg1 4 6 7 34: 1-1-0$34.00$7.00

Career

4: 1-1-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Newcastle
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Track Wyong
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1350m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1600m
1: 1-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-1-0
Going Good
1: 1-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

3Wyong1200m10 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)0.7L
7Gosford1000m31 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)9.7L
6Gosford800m18 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · HEAVY(8)11L
4Newcastle2200m23 May 2026 · 3UP CL1-SW · HEAVY94.3L
1Wyong1600m7 May 2026 · Maiden · GOOD4-0.3
2Port Macquarie1500m26 Apr 2026 · MDN · SOFT70.3L
7Wyong1350m4 Apr 2026 · Maiden · SOFT67.2L
4Scone900m25 Feb 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)2L

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -40% POT in their L100 Races
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 6% POT in L100 Runners
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Up In Dist
Positive
Racing at a more suitable distance
Improver
Positive
Poised to improve on recent form here
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Second campaign (19-weeks). Prepared for return with 3 trials. Shapes as a rough place prospect fresh in this affair.

ILB

Resuming. Odds of $13.00 and came in 4th last run at the track but has a positive barrier. Fitter for a barrier trial at Wyong on Sept 10th. Facing a difficult task today.

Not disgraced when fourth in May upped to 1m3f in a conditions race; returns from a layoff; chance with a bit more luck as excuses last time (crowded) and shown he can get his head in front.

RSIS

Back after break. Started at 12/1 and came in 4th last run at the track but gets a favourable stall. Back to a shorter distance.

4Sea LevelJ: Aaron Bullock·T: John O'Shea & Tom Charlton758kg5 5 6 4 12: 1-0-0$4.80$2.10

Career

2: 1-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed20%
Rating60%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Tuncurry
1: 1-0-0
Track Newcastle
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1150m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
1: 1-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

1Tuncurry1400m11 Sept 2026 · Maiden · GOOD3-0.8
4Newcastle1150m25 Aug 2026 · 4UP MDN HCP · SOFT62.7L
6Randwick1045m31 July 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)5.7L
5Randwick745m20 July 2026 · Barrier Trial · HEAVY(8)4L
5Randwick1045m7 Nov 2025 · Barrier Trial4.8L
7Randwick1045m22 July 2025 · Barrier Trial4.2L
5Hawkesbury800m7 July 2025 · Barrier Trial2.9L

Insights

Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 81%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 8% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 12%
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Sheer display of grit and determination at Tuncurry at his second race start. A Bullock retains the ride. Looks ready to go on.

ILB

Finished hard to win last start at Tuncurry but facing a stronger grade. Aaron Bullock is a strong choice aboard. Possible place chance.

Off the mark at the second time of asking when getting the job done by three-quarters of a length last month at Tuncurry upped to 7f; prospects.

RSIS

Charged home to win last run at Tuncurry but up against a higher level of opposition. Jockey Aaron Bullock is a bonus.

5Wallace StationJ: Rory Hutchings·T: Michael Freedman656.5kg6 4 1 52: 1-0-0$2.70$1.36

Career

2: 1-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed20%
Rating80%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
1: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Illawarra Grange
1: 0-0-0
Track Newcastle
1: 1-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1250m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1450m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 1-0-0

Last starts

5Illawarra Grange1450m17 Sept 2026 · CL1 · GOOD43.6L
1Newcastle1250m22 Aug 2026 · 3Y MDN · GOOD4-1.2
4Randwick1040m14 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)2.8L
6Randwick740m31 July 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)4.2L

Insights

Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 18% in Last 100 Rides
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Good debut at Newcastle 22 Aug. Not disgraced at Illawarra Grange at second start at $6. Can challenge.

ILB

Jumped at $6.00 and ran 5th last start at Illawarra Grange. May see an upturn in form. Rory Hutchings and Michael Freedman have shared plenty of success together. Well respected contender.

Not beaten that far at Illawarra Grange last month when just behind Varjak; has winning track form; a leading contender if duplicating the form of his most recent win.

RSIS

Was 5/1 and ran 5th last run at Illawarra Grange. Capable of a strong comeback. Won't be far away during the run. Should go close.

6RenoirJ: Jess Taylor·T: Ms K Gavenlock556kg5 1 9 5 67: 1-0-0$51.00$10.00

Career

7: 1-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed20%
Rating20%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Hawkesbury
2: 0-0-0
Track Muswellbrook
2: 1-0-0
Track Gosford
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1280m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
2: 1-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-0

Last starts

6Hawkesbury1400m10 Sept 2026 · BM64 · GOOD46.2L
5Gosford1200m28 Aug 2026 · Benchmark 64 · SOFT52.8L
9Gosford1000m18 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · HEAVY(8)5L
1Muswellbrook1750m27 July 2025 · MDN-SW · HEAVY8-4
5Gosford1600m10 July 2025 · Maiden · SOFT62.9L
5Hawkesbury1300m17 June 2025 · Maiden · SOFT53.5L
5Gosford1000m29 May 2025 · MID MDN HCP · HEAVY94.9L
2Beaumont1000m7 May 2025 · Barrier Trial1.2L

Insights

Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 84% in Last 100 Rides
Jockey Booking
Positive
Jess Taylor 93% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are winning 26% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Form
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectations 55%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 42% POT in L100 Runners
Key Jockey
Positive
Jess Taylor winning at 72% POT in last 100 rides
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 12%
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start

Comments

AAP

Sent back to last and safely held in the small field at Hawkesbury. Looks up against it.

ILB

At $41.00 disappointing run when 6th last run at Hawkesbury. In a lot of trouble.

Not had much racing; beaten a fair way when sixth over 7f at Hawkesbury (handicap) 23 days ago; he can be taken on.

RSIS

Started at 40/1 and lacklustre showing when 6th last run at Hawkesbury.

7Air KissJ: Olivia Chambers·T: Ms K Gavenlock355kg6 3 2 6 713: 1-0-2$81.00$15.00

Career

13: 1-0-2

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed20%
Rating40%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
4: 0-0-0
Second-up
3: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
2: 1-0-1
Track Hawkesbury
1: 0-0-0
Track Newcastle
5: 1-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
5: 1-0-0
Distance 1400m
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1600m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 900m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
7: 1-0-0
Going Good
4: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-1

Last starts

7Hawkesbury1400m10 Sept 2026 · BM64 · GOOD46.6L
6Gosford1200m28 Aug 2026 · Benchmark 64 · SOFT57.4L
2Gosford1000m18 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · HEAVY(8)0.6L
3Gosford1600m11 Feb 2026 · CL1 · GOOD41.8L
6Newcastle1350m15 Jan 2026 · Benchmark 64 · SOFT53.6L
6Wyong1350m20 Dec 2025 · CL1 · GOOD47.9L
7Gosford1200m4 Dec 2025 · CL1 · GOOD48L
7Gosford1000m25 Nov 2025 · Barrier Trial4.5L

Insights

Jockey Booking
Negative
Olivia Chambers current POT is 19% below Career Avg.
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 48%
Stable In Form
Positive
Stable going well. Out performing market by 55%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 42% POT in L100 Runners
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Unable to make an impression at Hawkesbury when second-up. Keener on others.

ILB

Odds of $101.00 and gave away some ground when 7th last time at Hawkesbury. Won't be far away during the run. Others much better.

Finished last of seven over 7f at Hawkesbury (handicap) last month when just behind Renoir; has won at this track; others more appealing.

RSIS

Was 100/1 and didn't attack the line when 7th last start at Hawkesbury. Should be going forward early.

Odds correct as at Sat 3 Oct, 2:11 pm AEST. Odds can change.

Past meetings

Sat 14 Nov, 11:00 am AEDT · 10 races
Sat 31 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 8 races
Mon 26 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 7 races
Sat 17 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 8 races
Tue 6 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 7 races
Sat 19 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 7 races
Fri 18 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 8 races