Shortest win price
Surfers Royale (7)
1.85
Welcome to Mount Isa for race four, the Sportsbet Hcp over 1100m on a good track under fine weather, jumping at 1:50 pm AEDT. Looking at the win market order, Surfers Royale sits at the top of the betting line, closely followed by Soopat, Demitasse, Pennypacker, Napoleon Strike, and Media Empire rounding them out.
Surfers Royale comes in with a solid rating of 100, backed by a recent second over 1200m here at Mount Isa where it put in a sound performance in a small field. Soopat is right there in the market and brings an impressive career record of 49 starts for 13 wins, though it was freshened after failing to threaten at Emerald last time out when second-up. Demitasse holds a rating of 91 and grabbed a minor placing here over 1200m last start, holding on for second after feeling the pinch late.
The speed map points to a busy early go with a stack of runners marked on-pace including Soopat, Napoleon Strike, Media Empire, and Surfers Royale, while Demitasse maps as the lone leader and Pennypacker gets back as the backmarker. Pennypacker ran on well from the back last start at Townsville and could be one to watch late if the speedsters up front cut each other's throats. The numbers say this open handicap should be a cracking contest, and Surfers Royale rates a real chance to dictate terms.
Shortest win price
Surfers Royale (7)
1.85
Most career wins
Soopat
13-13-8 from 49 starts
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Onpace
Leader
Soopat · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are out performing market expectations by 62%
Napoleon Strike · Negative
Trainer Recent
Camp struggling with S/R just 12%
Media Empire · Negative
Current SR
Rider’s recent POT is returning 6% lower than Career Avg.
Demitasse · Negative
Trainer SR
Tanya Parry striking at just 12%
Career
49: 13-13-8
Rating · IRD
87
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
6: 3-0-1
Second-up
5: 1-2-0
Third-up
2: 1-0-1
Fourth-up
2: 1-0-1
Track Mount Isa
12: 4-4-4
Track Richmond
1: 0-1-0
Track Talmoi
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
30: 7-9-4
Distance 1050m
2: 1-1-0
Distance 1100m
7: 2-1-1
Going Good
33: 8-9-6
Going Soft
7: 1-1-1
Going Unknown
9: 4-3-1
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 62%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Form 3rd Up
Positive
Has won 1 from 2 when third up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Freshened. Failed to threaten at Emerald when second-up.
ILB
Average performance when 11th last run at Emerald. Should muster plenty of early speed. Jockey Amie Meissner usually performs well for this stable. Has a credible chance.
RP
Last of 11 over 5f at Emerald (handicap) four weeks ago; has winning form over this course and distance on the CV; stable going well a plus; must be high on list.
RSIS
Underperformed when 11th last time at Emerald. Amie Meissner and Bevan Johnson deserve serious consideration as a team. Will be pushing for a forward position early. Looks good for a place at least.
Career
42: 11-7-8
Rating · IRD
84
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
2: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Innisfail
1: 1-0-0
Track Cloncurry
1: 0-1-0
Track Mareeba
3: 2-1-0
Distance 1360m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
7: 0-1-4
Distance 1210m
2: 2-0-0
Going Unknown
22: 7-3-5
Going Good
14: 3-3-3
Going Soft
6: 1-1-0
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 12%
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 35%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 51% Profit on Turnover
Well beaten LS
Negative
Not competitive last run
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
AAP
Unable to threaten in the small field this venue.
ILB
Odds of $12.00 and folded up in the straight when 6th last run around here but strong performer at the distance. Shows good early pace. Goes well and could be a value opportunity.
RP
Finished last of six over 6f here (handicap) when behind three of these last month; unbeaten over this C&D after two runs; a good third two starts back and has a chance.
RSIS
Started at 11/1 and lost ground in the run home when 6th last start here but proven performer at this trip. Should be going forward early. Producing consistent results recently. Worth a lot of thought in this race.
Career
82: 10-15-16
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
8: 1-1-1
Second-up
7: 2-0-0
Third-up
7: 1-1-0
Fourth-up
7: 0-1-3
Track Doomben
1: 0-0-0
Track Yeppoon
1: 1-0-0
Track Benalla
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
27: 4-5-4
Distance 1300m
13: 1-3-1
Distance 1400m
2: 0-1-0
Going Soft
25: 3-3-7
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Going Unknown
8: 0-3-4
Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 6% lower than Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -37% POT in their L100 Races
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 13%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Back in Dist
Negative
Dropping back to a less suitable distance range
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Winless Prep
Negative
Expect the drought to continue
AAP
Unable to make an impression at Richmond over longer assignment. Drops to shorter trip.
ILB
Odds of $15.00 and not competitive when 4th last time at Richmond and will be facing a significant drop in distance. Up against a more competitive field. Seems very unlikely.
RP
Not disgraced when fourth at Richmond over 7f (handicap) 16 days ago; a few rivals look in good form so others appeal more.
RSIS
Started at 14/1 and average effort when 4th last start at Richmond and down in distance. Facing stiffer opposition. Will benefit with the weight drop.
Rating · IRD
20
AAP
Just got there in the Open Plate this venue.
ILB
Bold effort to win by 3/4L last time here and drawn the rails. Been in the placegetters each start this campaign.
RSIS
Showed promise when winning by 3/4L last run around here and drawn well. Been in the money 13 from 13 attempts recently.
Career
49: 8-6-12
Rating · IRD
75
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
6: 1-2-1
Second-up
5: 1-2-1
Third-up
5: 1-0-3
Fourth-up
4: 2-0-0
Track Hawkesbury
2: 0-0-2
Track Rockhampton
6: 0-1-0
Track Ewan
1: 0-0-1
Distance 900m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
14: 5-0-3
Distance 1065m
1: 0-1-0
Going Unknown
15: 2-1-7
Going Good
24: 6-4-4
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Weight Drop
Positive
Drops 4.5kg from LS run
AAP
Gave good sight filling the minors this track.
ILB
Competitive effort when 3rd last start at this track and drawn nicely. Carrying less weight this time.
RP
Achieved five wins at this venue and has maintained his consistent level of form; third, not beaten that far (6-1) here over 6f (conditions race, just behind Surfers Royale) last month.
RSIS
Looked good when 3rd last time at the track and has a good draw. Goes down in weight.
Career
37: 6-5-4
Rating · IRD
91
Speed map
Leader
First-up
7: 2-1-1
Second-up
6: 1-0-2
Third-up
6: 0-1-1
Fourth-up
5: 1-1-0
Track Rosehill
1: 0-0-0
Track Sunshine Coast
2: 0-1-0
Track Gold Coast Poly
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
6: 2-0-2
Distance 1100m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
9: 2-2-0
Going Good
25: 4-4-4
Going Soft
9: 2-1-0
Going Synthetic
2: 0-0-0
Trainer SR
Negative
Tanya Parry striking at just 12%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 35%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 51% Profit on Turnover
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 11%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Improved L/S
Positive
Improved again last start
AAP
Felt pinch late but held on for the minors this track.
ILB
Amongst the placegetters when 2nd last time at this venue and will appreciate a good alley. Expecting to settle positively. Should give plenty of sight.
RP
Runner-up of six when sent off 18-1 here over 6f (handicap) last month; recent form has a decent look to it; arguably the one to beat.
RSIS
Claimed a spot in the placings when 2nd last time at this track and drawn nicely. Has plenty of early pace. Strong chance.
Career
39: 5-6-5
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
7: 1-0-1
Second-up
6: 2-1-0
Third-up
6: 0-0-2
Fourth-up
6: 0-0-0
Track Kembla Grange
1: 0-1-0
Track Murwillumbah
1: 0-0-0
Track Sunshine Coast
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
23: 4-4-2
Distance 1300m
3: 1-0-1
Distance 1350m
3: 0-1-1
Going Good
22: 1-3-3
Going Heavy
4: 1-1-2
Going Soft
11: 3-1-0
Trainer SR
Negative
Tanya Parry striking at just 12%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 35%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 51% Profit on Turnover
Hot Jockey
Positive
Brooke Stower in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 8%
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Ready To Fire
Positive
Shown something in last few runs
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Sound performance in small field this track.
ILB
Looked good when 2nd last start at this venue. Will show up at the business end.
RP
Went down by three-quarters of a length last month in a conditions race; been running well without managing to get his head in front.
RSIS
Tidy run when 2nd last run at this venue. Should go well.
Career
51: 8-7-6
Rating · IRD
82
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
6: 0-0-1
Second-up
4: 0-0-0
Third-up
4: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
4: 0-0-0
Track Julia Creek
1: 1-0-0
Track Twin Hills
1: 0-0-0
Track Canberra
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1005m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
7: 1-2-0
Distance 1200m
20: 5-2-2
Going Soft
9: 1-1-0
Going Unknown
12: 4-3-2
Going Good
28: 3-3-4
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Ran on late from the back at Townsville first up.
ILB
Inched into 5th last start at Townsville. Expected to be flashing home. Possible place chance.
RP
Solid effort when beaten just under 2l to finish fifth over 5f at Townsville (handicap) last month; a previous winner here; this looks a fair heat so looks risky.
RSIS
Showed some merit late when 5th last time at Townsville. Will be motoring home late.