Week 3 brings an exciting NFL contest as the 2-1 Jacksonville Jaguars clash with the 1-1-1 New England Patriots on Mon, 28 Sept, 3:00 am AEST. If you are looking for top nfl tips this week, the numbers say we have a fascinating match-up on our hands.

Jacksonville jumps off the page with a 2-1 overall record sitting third in the AFC playoff standings, while New England comes in at 1-1-1 with a -21 point differential across their opening fixtures.

Who Will Win?

The Head to Head market has Jacksonville Jaguars priced as 1.62 favourites with New England Patriots as 2.31 underdogs. Jacksonville comes into this fixture off a sharp last start, shutting out the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19–0 at home on Sat, 29 Aug. That victory brought their season stats to 60 points scored and 54 conceded.

New England's most recent result went the other way, taking a 13–37 defeat on the road against the Cleveland Browns on Fri, 28 Aug. With a road record sitting at 0-1 and 71 total points conceded this season, the Patriots have work to do on defence. Jacksonville's clean sheet in their last outing gives them a big tick in momentum.

Head to HeadOdds correct as at 12:13 pm AEST. Odds can change.
Our tipJacksonville Jaguars1.62New England Patriots2.31
Big tickOur tip: Jacksonville Jaguars. Jacksonville enters coming off an impressive 19–0 shutout win and holds a 2-1 record, while New England is coming off a heavy 37–13 away loss.

Tipped at $1.62 (10:29 am AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Head-to-head context

Season and last-five scoring — context for the match-winner market.

20Season avg points for25
18Season avg points against35.5
67%Season win rate50%
18Last 2 avg points for18.5
50%Last-five win rate50%

Line Analysis

The handicap line is set at -2.5 points, positioning the Jaguars as -2.5 line favourites at 1.80 while the Patriots get a +2.5 start at 2.00. Jacksonville's 19-point win margin in their last start showed their capability to build a comfortable cushion when their defence locks down.

Considering New England surrendered 37 points in their last start away loss, backing Jacksonville to cover the tight 2.5-point line rates a real chance.

LineOdds correct as at 12:13 pm AEST. Odds can change.
Our tipJacksonville Jaguars -2.51.80New England Patriots +2.52.00
Solid tickOur tip: Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5. The Jags covered this line easily in their last outing, while New England's defence allowed 37 points last start on the road.

Tipped at $1.80 (10:29 am AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Line cover (form)

Cover rate applies this match's live spread to recent completed scores — not a season ATS record.

Jacksonville Jaguars-2.5last 2

Cover rate50%1/2
Avg margin (+1)avg 1vs 2.5
-157

New England Patriots+2.5last 2

Cover rate50%1/2
50%Cover % (form)50%

Same Game Multi Options

For punters looking at multi combinations, popular options are available on the board. You can find Jaguars to win, Total points over 45.5 & Parker Washington to score a touchdown priced at 5.25.

Another featured combination is Jaguars to win, Total points over 45.5 & Bhayshul Tuten to score first touchdown sitting at 26.