Titans vs Jaguars: +108 differential jumps off the page — our tips

Week 10 delivers an AFC South clash at Nissan Stadium on Monday, 16 November at 5:00 am AEDT. The Jacksonville Jaguars sit top of the division with a 6-2 record, while the Tennessee Titans enter at 1-7. The stat that jumps off the page right away is Jacksonville's overall +108 points differential compared to Tennessee's -55. For punters digging into nfl predictions this week, the numbers say there is a massive gap in form between these two division rivals.

Who Will Win?

Jacksonville rates a real chance to claim another victory here, coming off a dominant 33-10 win on the road against the Baltimore Ravens. The Jaguars have put together four wins from their last five starts overall, scoring an average of 29.4 points while conceding just 17 per game over that span. Their average winning margin across those four victories is a heavy 16.3 points.

Tennessee, meanwhile, is coming off a 43-36 loss away to the Cincinnati Bengals. The Titans have struggled to generate consistent results, losing four of their past five matches overall and conceding an average of 28 points per game. At home in Nissan Stadium, their last two starts resulted in a 27-24 defeat to the Cleveland Browns and a 26-3 loss to the Houston Texans. Jacksonville goes into this matchup as the 1.19 favourite on the head-to-head board, while the Titans sit at 4.8.

Line Analysis

The main line market sets Tennessee with a +9.5 start at 1.95, while Jacksonville is giving away -9.5 at 1.85. Looking at recent scoring metrics, Jacksonville's overall average winning margin of 16.3 points over their last five games suggests they have the firepower to clear a single-digit spread. Their last two wins alone were by 23 points against Baltimore and 35 points against Indianapolis.

Tennessee's average losing margin over their last five outings sits at 9.8 points, including a 23-point home loss to Houston in October. With Jacksonville scoring nearly 30 points a game on average across their past five overall starts, backing the visitors on the -9.5 line gets a big tick based on the recent numbers.