Forbes (NSW) horsestips & previews

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Forbes (NSW), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Saturday 10 October 2026

Race 3 — Bwr Accountants Mdn Hcp 1400m · jumps 4:04 pm AEDT

Race notes

MDN,MDN HCP,Maiden
GOOD4
Fine
9 runners

Shortest win price

Nortoko (7)

2.50

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Backmarker

1Eldiron

Offpace

5Devil's Reach
3Grandee
4Chrislyn
6Don'Tdoubtdagoose

Onpace

8Pathelia
9Polens

Leader

2Meldirer
7Nortoko

Eldiron · Negative
1st Up
May need this run
Meldirer · Negative
Rider
Negative rider change today
Grandee · Negative
Current SR
Rider’s recent POT is returning 45% lower than Career Avg.
Chrislyn · Negative
Trainer Career
Trainer Career S/R is 6%

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace

1EldironJ: N.r·T: Liam Ruddy759kg5 8 12 6 71: 0-0-011.002.80

Career

1: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
Early Speed20%
Rating20%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Quirindi
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1450m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

7Newcastle1000m23 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)4.4L
6Mudgee1000m30 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(7)20.8L
12Quirindi1450m11 May 2026 · MDN-SW · SOFT615.3L
8Rosehill900m17 Apr 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)15.2L
5Randwick780m19 Aug 2025 · Barrier Trial · SYNTHETIC3.7L

Insights

1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Second campaign (21-weeks). Well down the track at Quirindi on debut when pushed out in the market. Since given 2 trials. Plenty of improvement needed. Would need a strong market push.

ILB

Fresh from a spell. At $20.00 struggled with the pace when 12th last start at Quirindi but having second career run. Blinkers go off for the first time. Slim chance.

Held on his debut at Quirindi (wore blinkers) at 18-1 in May; back from an absence here; could improve although needs to.

RSIS

Resuming. At 19/1 faded to finish 12th last run at Quirindi but fitter for debut run. Interesting to see the blinkers go off for the first time.

2MeldirerJ: Jake Pracey-Holmes·T: Brett Robb257kg3 3 7 3 123: 0-0-16.002.00

Career

3: 0-0-1

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed20%
Rating60%
Closing Speed20%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Dubbo
1: 0-0-0
Track Narromine
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
2: 0-0-1
Going Good
1: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0

Last starts

12Dubbo1300m2 Oct 2026 · MDN-SW · HEAVY818.6L
3Narromine1300m21 Sept 2026 · CTRY MDN · GOOD31.3L
7Narromine1100m23 Aug 2026 · CTRY MDN · HEAVY83.2L
3Dubbo1020m10 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · HEAVY(9)1.4L
3Coonabarabran900m25 July 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)9.2L

Insights

Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -47% POT in their L100 Races
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Narromine Country Boosted Mdn placegetter 21 Sep. Was a long way from the action in 1300m Mdn Plate at Dubbo. Nice gate. Can play a more positive role here.

ILB

On a short back up. Started $15.00 and weakened under pressure when 12th last start at Dubbo on a heavy surface. Is capable of a resurgence. Win bet the play today.

Finished out the back over 6½f at Dubbo (maiden) last Friday; has to be taken seriously given she was third (albeit some way back) two starts ago.

RSIS

On a quick back up. At 14/1 weakened to finish 12th last run at Dubbo on a heavy surface. Looking for an improved run. Deserves to be the top selection.

3GrandeeJ: Michael Heagney·T: Kieren Hazelton856kg9 8 4 4 93: 0-0-041.004.80

Career

3: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer40%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed20%
Rating40%
Closing Speed60%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Narromine
1: 0-0-0
Track Geurie
1: 0-0-0
Track Quambone
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Unknown
2: 0-0-0

Last starts

9Narromine1300m21 Sept 2026 · CTRY MDN · GOOD36.23L
4Geurie1000m12 Sept 2026 · 3yo+7.8L
4Quambone1100m9 May 2026 · 3yo+5.6L
8Narromine800m26 Apr 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)13.9L
9Wellington900m24 Nov 2025 · Barrier Trial13.9L

Insights

Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 45% lower than Career Avg.
Trainer SR
Negative
Kieren Hazelton striking at just 8%
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 31%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 48% Profit on Turnover
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 63% in L100 rides
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start

Comments

AAP

Never a threat after showing no early speed from the barriers at Narromine when second-up. Sharper now, can play a role with even breaks.

ILB

Started at $101.00 and below standard effort when 9th last start at Narromine. Expected to settle towards the tail. Respect the betting.

Finished behind Meldirer when beaten 6l at Narromine last month upped to 6½f; runs for only the second time in a handicap; needs to be respected based on the pick of his form.

RSIS

Was 100/1 and performed below standard when 9th last time at Narromine. Might be ridden for luck.

4ChrislynJ: Jacob Stiff·T: G D Lunn555kg2 7 5 12 215: 0-2-17.002.25

Career

15: 0-2-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed20%
Rating60%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Seymour
1: 0-0-1
Track Bairnsdale
2: 0-0-0
Track Grenfell
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
4: 0-2-0
Distance 2100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Unknown
2: 0-2-0
Going Good
5: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
3: 0-0-1

Last starts

2Grenfell1400m26 Sept 2026 · MDN-SW0.02L
12Dubbo2200m7 Sept 2026 · BM58 · GOOD431.8L
5Mudgee1400m30 Aug 2026 · CTRY MDN · SOFT77.4L
7Narromine1600m23 Aug 2026 · CL1-SW · HEAVY83L
2Carinda1400m18 July 2026 · MDN-SW2.7L
6Dubbo1300m13 July 2026 · MDN · SOFT54.7L
9Dubbo1100m28 June 2026 · Maiden · HEAVY85.3L
7Geelong2470m2 Oct 2025 · 3UP MDN-SW · SOFT57.9L

Insights

Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 6%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -34% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 42%
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 25%
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Narrowly beaten in the small field at Grenfell over today's trip. Well into preparation now, can make her presence felt.

ILB

Close to claiming the win last start at Grenfell and gets some weight taken off. Displays good tactical speed. Limited possibility.

Gave it a good shot when a close runner-up at Grenfell back down to this trip last month in a maiden; has arguably shown improved form the last twice but 16th attempt to break her duck.

RSIS

Just short of the win last time at Grenfell and gets some weight taken off. Displays good tactical pace.

5Devil's ReachJ: Ken Dunbar·T: M C Lynch455kg7 7 8 5 108: 0-0-015.003.40

Career

8: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Forbes
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Track Dubbo
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1120m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
5: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

10Dubbo1300m2 Oct 2026 · MDN-SW · HEAVY810.42L
5Wellington1100m15 Sept 2026 · CTRY MDN-SW · SOFT63.77L
8Dubbo1120m10 Aug 2026 · MDN-SW · HEAVY913.8L
7Forbes1200m11 Oct 2025 · MDN SW · SOFT67.6L
7Queanbeyan1000m9 Sept 2025 · MDN · GOOD47.5L
9Narromine1100m24 Aug 2025 · MDN HCP · SOFT77.7L
10Dubbo1300m6 June 2025 · Maiden · SOFT611L
8Wellington1000m13 May 2025 · MDN-SW · SOFT56.1L

Insights

Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
Limited
Negative
Hasn’t featured at all in all career runs
Wet To Dry
Negative
Coming from a wet to dry (Heavy 8 to Good 4) track may prove difficult
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Had Chances
Negative
Still in maiden grade after several runs
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature
Weight Drop
Positive
Drops 4kg from LS run

Comments

AAP

Never sighted at Dubbo. Looks more a place prospect.

ILB

Backing up quickly. Jumped at $201.00 and below expectations when 10th last start at Dubbo but dropping weight. Will be positive in the run early. Tested here.

Finished tenth of 12 (Dubbo) a week ago in a maiden.

RSIS

Racing on a quick back up. Odds of 200/1 and disappointing outing when 10th last run at Dubbo but will appreciate the drop in weight.

6Don'TdoubtdagooseJ: Jess Del Frari·T: Ms M Harrison955kg5 6 53: 0-0-05.501.90

Career

3: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo40%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed60%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Dubbo
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Track Sale
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
2: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

5Dubbo1300m2 Oct 2026 · MDN-SW · HEAVY86L
6Sale1400m21 Aug 2026 · MDN-SW · SOFT68.7L
5Ballarat Synthetic1400m6 Aug 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · SYNTHETIC12.8L

Insights

Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -29% POT in their L100 Races
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 30%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Wet To Dry
Negative
Coming from a wet to dry (Heavy 8 to Good 4) track may prove difficult
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Off pace and failed to make an impression at Dubbo for new trainer. Sound claims.

ILB

Backs up quickly. Jumped at $71.00 and ran 5th last time at Dubbo. Prefer others.

Had a couple of these behind her when fifth at Dubbo in a maiden on debut outing for new trainer last Friday; should be involved.

RSIS

Backs up quickly. Started 70/1 and finished 5th last time at Dubbo.

7NortokoJ: Clayton Gallagher·T: Bill Hayes155kg4 5 4 6 517: 0-1-32.501.26

Career

17: 0-1-3

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating100%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Canberra
1: 0-0-0
Track Dubbo
2: 0-0-0
Track Queanbeyan
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1350m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
12: 0-1-3
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0

Last starts

5Dubbo1400m27 Sept 2026 · Maiden · GOOD42.64L
6Bathurst1400m13 Sept 2026 · CTRY MDN-SW · SOFT52.3L
4Moree1400m6 Sept 2026 · CTRY MDN · GOOD42.2L
5Bathurst1200m17 Aug 2026 · CG&E MDN · HEAVY83.4L
4Louth1000m8 Aug 2026 · MDN-SW8.2L
3Albury1500m5 Feb 2026 · CTRY MDN-SW · GOOD42.5L
4Parkes1600m24 Jan 2026 · CTRY MDN-SW · GOOD42.9L
4Cowra1375m18 Jan 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD45.2L

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Ran an honest race and not beaten far at Dubbo over this trip at huge odds. Drawn to get an economic trail. Commands attention here.

ILB

Overrun in the final stages of the race when 5th last start at Dubbo and has minimal work to do from the gate. Should race on the speed. Has claims.

Respectable effort finishing fifth (beaten 2½l, Dubbo) last month; 18th attempt to lose maiden tag; may have to settle for supporting role.

RSIS

Gave ground late when 5th last run at Dubbo and has a nice advantage with a good draw. Should be going forward early. Price in this race is tempting to get involved.

8PatheliaJ: Sairyn Fawke·T: Kody Nestor655kg6 5 6 5 726: 0-2-37.002.30

Career

26: 0-2-3

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Port Macquarie
1: 0-0-0
Track Tamworth
2: 0-1-0
Track Muswellbrook
6: 0-0-0
Distance 2200m
3: 0-0-2
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
10: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
4: 0-1-0
Going Soft
12: 0-1-2

Last starts

7Muswellbrook1750m20 Apr 2026 · CL1-SW · GOOD47.7L
5Mudgee2000m5 Apr 2026 · CL1-SW · GOOD38.8L
6Scone1400m20 Mar 2026 · CTRY MDN · SOFT57.6L
5Gunnedah1600m7 Mar 2026 · CL1-SW · GOOD31.9L
6Port Macquarie1509m8 Feb 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD44.6L
5Armidale1300m5 Jan 2026 · CTRY MDN · GOOD49.2L
8Tamworth1600m8 Sept 2025 · MDN-SW · SOFT53.3L
7Scone1600m25 Aug 2025 · CTRY MDN-SW · HEAVY94.2L

Insights

Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 25%
Well beaten LS
Negative
Not competitive last run
Dist Drop
Negative
Distance decrease from last start
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Resuming (24-weeks). Ex John Bannister in NSW. Struggled through last campaign. Keeping safe at first run for new stable.

ILB

Resuming after a spell. At $41.00 tailed off to finish 7th last start at Muswellbrook and back in trip. Coming to a new trainer. Will be facing a challenge.

Still seeking a first success after 26 starts; beaten 8l in seventh when dropped back to 1m½f (Muswellbrook) in April in a conditions race; returns from a break today; first start for trainer; others more persuasive.

RSIS

First run back after a break. At 40/1 lost ground in the run home when 7th last time at Muswellbrook and dropping in distance. First appearance for a new trainer.

9PolensJ: Diego Montes De Oca·T: Barry Wall355kg7 5 10 7 945: 0-5-311.002.90

Career

45: 0-5-3

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed20%
Rating60%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
3: 0-1-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-1
Third-up
2: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Cootamundra
1: 0-0-0
Track Dubbo
4: 0-0-1
Track Narromine
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1310m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
12: 0-2-0
Going Good
23: 0-2-1
Going Heavy
8: 0-1-0
Going Soft
13: 0-2-2

Last starts

9Cootamundra1400m4 Oct 2026 · CTRY MDN-SW · GOOD47.27L
7Wellington1100m15 Sept 2026 · CTRY MDN-SW · SOFT65.58L
10Dubbo1400m28 June 2026 · CTRY MDN · HEAVY84.8L
5Canberra1280m12 June 2026 · MDN · GOOD38.5L
7Warren1400m1 June 2026 · CTRY MDN-SW · SOFT73.85L
7Queanbeyan1460m17 May 2026 · Maiden · GOOD49.1L
5Dubbo1400m3 May 2026 · MDN · GOOD42.8L
4Narromine1300m26 Apr 2026 · CTRY MDN · GOOD43.4L

Insights

Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 7% in Last 100 Rides
Key Rider
Positive
Diego Montes De Oca 24% above market expected in L100 Rides
Trainer Form
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectations 29%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 17% POT in L100 Runners
Hot Jockey
Positive
Diego Montes De Oca in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 24%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 17%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance

Comments

AAP

On a short back-up. Failed to threaten at Cootamundra over this distance after a market ease. Hard fit, sound claims.

ILB

Racing on a quick back up. Odds of $31.00 and looked outclassed when 9th last start at Cootamundra. A 45 start maiden. Unfortunately, it seems unlikely.

Generally been out of sorts of late and 46th attempt to get off the mark; found life tough when 7l back in ninth at Cootamundra upped to this distance on Sunday in a maiden; others more appealing.

RSIS

Backing up quickly. Started 30/1 and faded away to finish 9th last run at Cootamundra. Still a maiden after 45 runs.

Odds correct as at 4:11 am AEDT. Odds can change.