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Arawa Park (NZ) horsestips & previews

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Arawa Park (NZ), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Sunday 11 October 2026

Race 5 — Lance Lawson (Bm65) 1950m · jumps 1:50 pm AEDT

Race notes

  • BENCHMARK 65,Benchmark 65
  • SOFT7
  • SHOWERS
  • 13 runners

Shortest win price

Steadfast (1)

5.50

Most career wins

Jack In The Box

7-2-4 from 67 starts

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Backmarker

  • 1Steadfast

Offmidfield

  • 12Marriage Vows

Midfield

  • 3Capitulate
  • 6Jack In The Box

Offpace

  • 4Cosmic Pursuit
  • 14Izola
  • 2Sonoran
  • 9Afore Ye Go

Onpace

  • 7Mr Blackjack
  • 5Hip Flask
  • 11Autumn Heights
  • 15Melkor

Leader

  • 13Opera Belle

  • Steadfast · Positive

    Turn Of Foot

    Had the fastest L200m sectionals last start

  • Sonoran · Positive

    Attacks Line

    Fastest L600m Sectionals Last Start in this field

  • Capitulate · Positive

    Rider SR

    Jockey recent POT is 29% better than Career Avg.

  • Cosmic Pursuit · Negative

    Gave ground LS

    Faded towards the finish last time out

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace
1SteadfastJ: Floor Moerman·T: K T Myers1559.5kg8 8 1 24: 1-1-0Steadfast win5.50Steadfast place2.15

Career

4: 1-1-0

Rating · IRD

90

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey60%
  • Trainer60%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
  • Early Speed60%
  • Rating60%
  • Closing Speed100%

Record

  • First-up

    2: 1-0-0

  • Second-up

    1: 0-1-0

  • Track Awapuni

    1: 1-0-0

  • Track Otaki

    2: 0-0-0

  • Track Hawera

    1: 0-1-0

  • Distance 1600m

    2: 0-1-0

  • Distance 1700m

    1: 1-0-0

  • Distance 2100m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Synthetic

    1: 1-0-0

  • Going Good

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Heavy

    1: 0-1-0

Last starts

  1. 2Hawera1600m3 Oct 2026 · Rating 65 Benchmark* · HEAVY81.47L
  2. 1Awapuni1700m17 July 2026 · MDN 2YO&UP · SYNTHETIC-0.65
  3. 8Otaki2100m9 Jan 2026 · MDN · GOOD46.78L
  4. 8Otaki1600m26 Dec 2025 · MDN · SOFT54.1L

Insights

  • Turn Of Foot

    Positive

    Had the fastest L200m sectionals last start

  • Hot J/T Combo

    Positive

    Combo are out performing market expectations

  • Early Sectionals

    Negative

    Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace

  • Ran On Hard LS

    Positive

    Ran on well last start

  • Wide Draw

    Negative

    Likely to get caught wide

Comments

ILB

Good performance to run into 2nd last time at Hawera on a heavy surface. Has good finishing speed. Been in the money 2 from 2 attempts this campaign. Good chance of taking this out.

RSIS

Was strong late when 2nd last start at Hawera on a heavy surface. Has run into the placings all attempts recently. Will be motoring home late. Expect a forward showing.

2SonoranJ: Samantha Collett·T: V A Prendergast1259kg13 3 6 9 319: 1-4-2Sonoran win6.50Sonoran place2.40

Career

19: 1-4-2

Rating · IRD

85

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey80%
  • Trainer40%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
  • Early Speed80%
  • Rating60%
  • Closing Speed100%

Record

  • First-up

    3: 0-1-1

  • Second-up

    1: 1-0-0

  • Third-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Fourth-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track CurrentTrack

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Matamata

    4: 1-0-0

  • Track Tauranga

    3: 0-2-0

  • Distance 2400m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1400m

    2: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1600m

    6: 1-1-1

  • Going Soft

    11: 0-3-1

  • Going Good

    3: 0-0-0

  • Going Heavy

    5: 1-1-1

Last starts

  1. 3Te Rapa1600m13 Sept 2026 · Rating 65 Benchmark* · HEAVY82.44L
  2. 9Matamata2000m14 Feb 2026 · Rating 75 Benchmark* · HEAVY910.56L
  3. 6Ellerslie2100m31 Jan 2026 · Rating 65 Benchmark* · SOFT52.52L
  4. 3Te Rapa2100m16 Jan 2026 · Rating 65 Benchmark* · SOFT70.27L
  5. 13Ellerslie2400m26 Dec 2025 · SP COND · SOFT513.1L
  6. 8Te Rapa2200m13 Dec 2025 · Rating 65 Benchmark* · SOFT56.8L
  7. 2Ellerslie2100m29 Nov 2025 · Rating 65 Benchmark* · SOFT50.8L
  8. 5Rotorua1950m16 Nov 2025 · Rating 65 Benchmark* · SOFT61.1L

Insights

  • Attacks Line

    Positive

    Fastest L600m Sectionals Last Start in this field

  • Rider SR

    Positive

    Jockey recent POT is 54% better than Career Avg.

  • Ran On Hard LS

    Positive

    Ran on well last start

  • Drawn Poorly

    Negative

    Unfavourable barrier draw

  • Up In Dist

    Positive

    Racing at a more suitable distance

Comments

ILB

Finished amongst the placegetters when 3rd beaten by just short of 2 1/2L last start at Te Rapa. Has some claims.

RSIS

Finished with intent when 3rd beaten by nearly 2 1/2L last run at Te Rapa. Could be in the mix.

3CapitulateJ: A Lawson-Carroll·T: S & E Clotworthy1058.5kg7 1 113: 1-0-0Capitulate win20.00Capitulate place4.40

Career

3: 1-0-0

Rating · IRD

79

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey40%
  • Trainer40%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
  • Early Speed60%
  • Rating40%
  • Closing Speed20%

Record

  • First-up

    2: 1-0-0

  • Second-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Te Aroha

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Rotorua

    1: 1-0-0

  • Track CurrentTrack

    1: 1-0-0

  • Distance 1400m

    2: 1-0-0

  • Distance 1600m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Heavy

    2: 1-0-0

  • Going Soft

    1: 0-0-0

Last starts

  1. 11Te Rapa1600m13 Sept 2026 · Rating 65 Benchmark* · HEAVY813.8L
  2. 1Rotorua1400m12 Aug 2026 · MDN · HEAVY9-0.3
  3. 7Te Aroha1400m11 Feb 2026 · MDN 3YO · SOFT56.71L

Insights

  • Rider SR

    Positive

    Jockey recent POT is 29% better than Career Avg.

  • Hot J/T Combo

    Positive

    Combo are out performing market expectations

  • Gave ground LS

    Negative

    Faded towards the finish last time out

  • Track Exp

    Positive

    Knows this track well

  • Imprv Needed

    Negative

    Would need to lift here to feature

Comments

ILB

Jumped at $26.00 and didn't find the line when 11th last time at Te Rapa. Better to look elsewhere.

RSIS

Started 25/1 and faded away to finish 11th last run at Te Rapa on a heavy rated track.

4Cosmic PursuitJ: Sam Mcnab·T: A W Pike158.5kg2 3 4 9 1410: 1-2-2Cosmic Pursuit win6.50Cosmic Pursuit place2.40

Career

10: 1-2-2

Rating · IRD

93

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey60%
  • Trainer60%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
  • Early Speed80%
  • Rating80%
  • Closing Speed40%

Record

  • First-up

    2: 0-0-0

  • Track Trentham

    1: 0-1-0

  • Track Rotorua

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track CurrentTrack

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1560m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1600m

    3: 0-0-1

  • Distance 1800m

    1: 0-1-0

  • Going Good

    2: 0-1-0

  • Going Soft

    8: 1-1-2

Last starts

  1. 14Te Rapa1600m25 Sept 2026 · Rating 65 Benchmark* · GOOD47.77L
  2. 9Ellerslie2100m23 May 2026 · Rating 65 Benchmark* · SOFT58.66L
  3. 4Te Rapa2100m2 May 2026 · Rating 65 Benchmark* · SOFT51.63L
  4. 3Ellerslie2200m4 Apr 2026 · Rating 65 Benchmark* · SOFT52.02L
  5. 2Trentham2100m21 Mar 2026 · Rating 65 Benchmark* · SOFT50.29L
  6. 1Matamata2000m11 Mar 2026 · MDN · SOFT5-0.27
  7. 2Taupo1800m22 Feb 2026 · MDN · GOOD40.04L
  8. 6Te Rapa1600m30 Jan 2026 · MDN · SOFT51.85L

Insights

  • Gave ground LS

    Negative

    Faded towards the finish last time out

  • Draw Suits

    Positive

    Well drawn inside

Comments

ILB

Started $8.00 and didn't threaten when 14th last time at Te Rapa but has the ideal draw. One that represents value at a decent price.

RSIS

Was 7/1 and weakened under pressure when 14th last run at Te Rapa but gets a favourable draw. Good enough chance at a very tempting price.

5Hip FlaskJ: Hayley Hassman·T: C R Mccarroll258.5kg2 2 4 1 95: 1-2-0Hip Flask win10.00Hip Flask place3.30

Career

5: 1-2-0

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey40%
  • Trainer40%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo50%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating100%
  • Closing Speed20%

Record

  • First-up

    2: 0-2-0

  • Second-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Third-up

    1: 1-0-0

  • Fourth-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Rotorua

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track CurrentTrack

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Matamata

    1: 0-1-0

  • Distance 1400m

    4: 1-2-0

  • Distance 1600m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Heavy

    5: 1-2-0

Last starts

  1. 9Te Aroha1600m18 Sept 2026 · Rating 65 Benchmark HWT* · HEAVY104.12L
  2. 1Te Aroha1400m3 Sept 2026 · MDN · HEAVY8-0.26
  3. 4Rotorua1400m12 Aug 2026 · MDN · HEAVY92.8L
  4. 2Tauranga1400m12 July 2026 · MDN 2YO&UP · HEAVY81.22L
  5. 2Matamata1400m15 Apr 2026 · MDN 2YO&UP · HEAVY102.84L

Insights

  • Drawn In

    Positive

    Suited drawn down low

  • Lightly Raced

    Positive

    Limited race experience but shown potential

  • Weight Drop

    Positive

    Drops 7.5kg from LS run

Comments

ILB

Jumped at $7.00 and couldn't stay in touch when 9th last time at Te Aroha on a heavy track but gets a favourable draw. Likely to be well placed early. Can win this.

RSIS

Odds of 6/1 and was well beaten when 9th last start at Te Aroha on a heavy rated track but good career start. Should jump out and bowl along. Very capable of taking this out.

6Jack In The BoxJ: Elen Nicholas·T: Ms D Andersen1158.5kg5 5 10 12 567: 7-2-4Jack In The Box win26.00Jack In The Box place5.00

Career

67: 7-2-4

Rating · IRD

83

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey40%
  • Trainer40%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
  • Early Speed60%
  • Rating60%
  • Closing Speed40%

Record

  • First-up

    6: 1-0-1

  • Second-up

    5: 1-0-0

  • Third-up

    5: 0-0-0

  • Fourth-up

    5: 1-0-0

  • Track Rotorua

    9: 2-1-0

  • Track Wanganui

    3: 2-0-0

  • Track Tauranga

    12: 0-1-2

  • Distance 970m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1300m

    2: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1400m

    7: 1-0-1

  • Going Good

    12: 0-0-0

  • Going Heavy

    29: 5-1-3

  • Going Soft

    19: 1-1-1

Last starts

  1. 5Hawera2100m3 Oct 2026 · Rating 65 Benchmark* · HEAVY84.13L
  2. 12Matamata2000m16 Sept 2026 · Rating 65 Benchmark* · SOFT75.01L
  3. 10Wanganui2040m29 Aug 2026 · Rating 65 Benchmark* · HEAVY107.92L
  4. 5Cambridge Synthetic2000m7 Aug 2026 · Rating 70 Benchmark · SYNTHETIC4.67L
  5. 5Cambridge Synthetic2000m29 July 2026 · Rating 72 Benchmark · SYNTHETIC6.86L
  6. 10Pukekura1600m18 July 2026 · Rating 75 Benchmark* · HEAVY1015.66L
  7. 1Rotorua1560m1 July 2026 · Rating 65 Benchmark* · HEAVY10-2.2
  8. 8Cambridge Synthetic1300m3 June 2026 · Rating 80 Benchmark · SYNTHETIC7.42L

Insights

  • Hot J/T Combo

    Positive

    Combo are out performing market expectations

  • Dist S/R

    Negative

    Poor performer at the distance

Comments

ILB

Started at $9.50 and finished 5th last time at Hawera. Not without a chance.

RSIS

Was 17/2 and finished 5th last run at Hawera. Not at all out of this race.

7Mr BlackjackJ: Masahiro Hashizume·T: K A Pertab1358.5kg13 3 1 6 96: 1-0-1Mr Blackjack win11.00Mr Blackjack place3.50

Career

6: 1-0-1

Rating · IRD

90

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey60%
  • Trainer60%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo50%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating60%
  • Closing Speed20%

Record

  • First-up

    2: 0-0-1

  • Second-up

    1: 1-0-0

  • Third-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Pukekura

    1: 1-0-0

  • Track Ruakaka

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Rotorua

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1500m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1560m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1600m

    2: 1-0-1

  • Going Heavy

    2: 1-0-0

  • Going Soft

    4: 0-0-1

Last starts

  1. 9Ellerslie1500m19 Sept 2026 · Rating 65 Benchmark* · SOFT56.45L
  2. 6Rotorua1560m1 July 2026 · Rating 65 Benchmark* · HEAVY105.9L
  3. 1Pukekura1600m12 June 2026 · MDN 2YO&UP · HEAVY10-1.77
  4. 3Hawera1600m17 May 2026 · MDN · SOFT51.02L
  5. 13Te Rapa1400m30 Jan 2026 · MDN · SOFT58.1L
  6. 10Ruakaka1400m6 Jan 2026 · MDN · SOFT55.9L

Insights

  • Fast Early

    Positive

    Sectionals suggest goes hard early

Comments

ILB

Was $17.00 and folded up in the straight when 9th last time at Ellerslie. Has the speed to overcome the wide barrier. Can take this out.

RSIS

Odds of 16/1 and was well beaten when 9th last run at Ellerslie. The wide stall shouldn't be a problem with plenty of early pace. Very tidy performer.

8MuscovadoScratched9––––

Career

31: 3-6-0

Rating · IRD

88

Speed map

Offmidfield

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey40%
  • Trainer40%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo50%
  • Early Speed60%
  • Rating50%
  • Closing Speed40%

Record

  • First-up

    4: 0-1-0

  • Second-up

    3: 0-0-0

  • Third-up

    3: 1-0-0

  • Fourth-up

    2: 0-1-0

  • Track Tauranga

    5: 1-1-0

  • Track Ellerslie

    4: 0-0-0

  • Track Rotorua

    3: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1400m

    6: 0-1-0

  • Distance 1600m

    4: 0-1-0

  • Distance 1800m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Good

    3: 0-0-0

  • Going Heavy

    16: 3-5-0

  • Going Soft

    12: 0-1-0

Last starts

  1. 8Matamata2000m16 Sept 2026 · Rating 65 Benchmark* · SOFT72.86L
  2. 12Ellerslie2200m5 Sept 2026 · Rating 65 Benchmark* · SOFT57.41L
  3. 6Te Rapa2100m8 Aug 2026 · BENCHMARK 75 · HEAVY82.5L
  4. 2Te Aroha2200m26 July 2026 · Rating 65 Benchmark* · HEAVY100.21L
  5. 2Hawera2100m11 July 2026 · Rating 65 Benchmark* · HEAVY82.18L
  6. 4Tauranga2100m27 June 2026 · Rating 65 Benchmark* · HEAVY100.69L
  7. 4Te Aroha2200m4 June 2026 · Rating 75 Benchmark* · HEAVY106.21L
  8. 13Te Rapa1400m25 Apr 2026 · Rating 65 Benchmark* · SOFT611.64L

Insights

  • Early Splits

    Negative

    Out of races with slow early tempos

  • Win Drought

    Negative

    Not won for a while

Comments

ILB

Odds of $9.00 and looked outclassed when 8th last run at Matamata and facing a stronger group of contenders. Likely to settle back in the field.

RSIS

Started 8/1 and weakened to finish 8th last start at Matamata and facing formidable opponents. Expected to settle towards the tail.

9Afore Ye GoJ: Jack Taplin·T: J W Bell458kg7 6 1 9 95: 1-0-0Afore Ye Go win14.00Afore Ye Go place3.80

Career

5: 1-0-0

Rating · IRD

83

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey60%
  • Trainer40%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed80%
  • Rating60%
  • Closing Speed40%

Record

  • First-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Second-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Third-up

    1: 1-0-0

  • Fourth-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Matamata

    2: 0-0-0

  • Track Te Rapa

    3: 1-0-0

  • Distance 1600m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 2000m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 2100m

    2: 1-0-0

  • Going Heavy

    2: 1-0-0

  • Going Soft

    3: 0-0-0

Last starts

  1. 9Matamata2000m16 Sept 2026 · Rating 65 Benchmark* · SOFT73.42L
  2. 9Te Rapa2400m22 Aug 2026 · Rating 65 Benchmark* · SOFT67.6L
  3. 1Te Rapa2100m8 Aug 2026 · MAIDEN · HEAVY8-0.7
  4. 6Te Rapa2100m4 July 2026 · MDN · HEAVY81.73L
  5. 7Matamata1600m14 June 2026 · MDN 2YO&UP · SOFT77.9L

Insights

  • Rider SR

    Positive

    Jockey recent POT is 8% better than Career Avg.

Comments

ILB

Started at $19.00 and didn't threaten when 9th last start at Matamata and competing at a higher class. Respect the betting.

RSIS

Started 18/1 and tailed off to finish 9th last start at Matamata and competing at a higher class. Has some claims.

10HephaestusScratched7––––

Career

11: 1-1-2

Rating · IRD

95

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey60%
  • Trainer60%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed40%
  • Rating50%
  • Closing Speed40%

Record

  • First-up

    2: 0-0-0

  • Second-up

    1: 0-0-1

  • Third-up

    1: 1-0-0

  • Fourth-up

    1: 0-1-0

  • Track Te Rapa

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Ellerslie

    2: 0-0-1

  • Track Trentham

    1: 0-1-0

  • Distance 1600m

    3: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1800m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 2100m

    4: 1-1-0

  • Going Good

    2: 0-0-0

  • Going Heavy

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Soft

    8: 1-1-2

Last starts

  1. 8Te Rapa2400m17 Apr 2026 · Rating 65 Benchmark* · HEAVY109.26L
  2. 11Pukekohe2100m20 Mar 2026 · Rating 65 Benchmark* · GOOD48.67L
  3. 2Trentham2100m1 Mar 2026 · Rating 65 Benchmark* · SOFT50.25L
  4. 1Otaki2100m8 Feb 2026 · MDN · SOFT5-4.69
  5. 3Pukekohe2200m18 Jan 2026 · MDN · SOFT63.24L
  6. 11Taupo1800m28 Dec 2025 · MDN · SOFT58.93L
  7. 3Ellerslie2200m25 May 2025 · MDN HWT · SOFT54.6L
  8. 8Ellerslie2100m7 May 2025 · MDN 2YO&UP · SOFT55L

Insights

  • Resuming

    Negative

    Poor strike rate when first up

Comments

ILB

Resuming after a break. Odds of $5.50 and didn't attack the line when 8th last start at Te Rapa on a heavy rated track and back in trip.

RSIS

First run back after a break. Started at 9/2 and couldn't maintain the pace when 8th last time at Te Rapa and dropping back to a shorter trip.

11Autumn HeightsJ: Craig Grylls·T: M H Brosnan1456.5kg6 5 1 7 610: 1-0-0Autumn Heights win6.50Autumn Heights place2.40

Career

10: 1-0-0

Rating · IRD

79

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey60%
  • Trainer60%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating40%
  • Closing Speed100%

Record

  • First-up

    2: 0-0-0

  • Second-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Third-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Fourth-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track CurrentTrack

    2: 0-0-0

  • Track Matamata

    2: 0-0-0

  • Track Te Rapa

    5: 1-0-0

  • Distance 1200m

    4: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1215m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1230m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Good

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Heavy

    4: 0-0-0

  • Going Soft

    5: 1-0-0

Last starts

  1. 6Te Rapa1600m25 Sept 2026 · Rating 65 Benchmark* · GOOD41.98L
  2. 7Te Rapa1600m13 Sept 2026 · Rating 65 Benchmark* · HEAVY85.25L
  3. 1Te Rapa1600m22 Aug 2026 · MDN · SOFT6-0.15
  4. 5Te Rapa1600m25 July 2026 · MDN 2YO&UP · HEAVY103.36L
  5. 6Ruakaka1200m11 July 2026 · MDN 2YO&UP · SOFT54.96L
  6. 9Rotorua1215m1 July 2026 · MDN 2YO&UP F&M · HEAVY1018.65L
  7. 6Matamata1200m14 June 2026 · MDN 2YO&UP · SOFT73.53L
  8. 5Te Rapa1200m30 May 2026 · MDN 2YO&UP · SOFT54.12L

Insights

  • Attacks Line

    Positive

    Fastest L600m Sectionals Last Start in this field

  • Current SR

    Negative

    Rider’s recent POT is returning 17% lower than Career Avg.

  • Trainer Form

    Positive

    In form stable, out performing market expectations

  • Ran On Hard LS

    Positive

    Ran on well last start

Comments

ILB

Started $15.00 and ran 6th last start at Te Rapa. May find these too slick.

RSIS

Started 14/1 and ran 6th last time at Te Rapa.

12Marriage VowsJ: Jasmine Fawcett·T: L K Collins856.5kg7 5 7 5 513: 1-2-0Marriage Vows win6.00Marriage Vows place2.25

Career

13: 1-2-0

Rating · IRD

83

Speed map

Offmidfield

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey40%
  • Trainer40%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed60%
  • Rating60%
  • Closing Speed40%

Record

  • First-up

    3: 0-1-0

  • Second-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Third-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Fourth-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Ruakaka

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Rotorua

    3: 0-0-0

  • Track CurrentTrack

    3: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1500m

    3: 1-0-0

  • Distance 1550m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1560m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Good

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Heavy

    7: 1-2-0

  • Going Soft

    4: 0-0-0

Last starts

  1. 5Pukekura1600m18 July 2026 · Rating 65 Benchmark* · HEAVY103.05L
  2. 5Rotorua1560m1 July 2026 · Rating 65 Benchmark* · HEAVY105.5L
  3. 7Matamata1600m14 June 2026 · Rating 65 Benchmark* · SOFT76.3L
  4. 5Ellerslie1500m6 June 2026 · Rating 65 Benchmark* · SOFT63.09L
  5. 7Ellerslie1500m16 May 2026 · Rating 65 Benchmark* · SOFT54.22L
  6. 4Rotorua1400m22 Apr 2026 · Rating 65 Benchmark Fillies and Mares* · HEAVY106.97L
  7. 2Pukekura1400m4 Dec 2025 · Rating 65 Benchmark* · HEAVY80.4L
  8. 10Ruakaka2100m2 Aug 2025 · Rating 65 Benchmark* · SOFT553.5L

Insights

  • Slow Early LS

    Negative

    Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg

  • Struggling

    Negative

    Doesn’t look to be going well

Comments

ILB

Was $13.00 and faded away when 5th last time at Pukekura. Struggling this campaign. Likely to get back in the field. Can't leave out of your calculations.

RSIS

Started 12/1 and was found wanting late when 5th last time at Pukekura on a heavy rated track. Will be giving the leaders a big start. Can't leave out of your calculations.

13Opera BelleJ: Tom Wigram·T: Ms K A Hoskin355kg4 5 9 7 635: 3-0-2Opera Belle win20.00Opera Belle place4.60

Career

35: 3-0-2

Rating · IRD

83

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey50%
  • Trainer40%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo50%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating60%
  • Closing Speed40%

Record

  • First-up

    6: 0-0-1

  • Second-up

    5: 0-0-0

  • Third-up

    5: 0-0-1

  • Fourth-up

    5: 1-0-0

  • Track Te Rapa

    4: 0-0-1

  • Track Avondale

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Colac

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1469m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1800m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1950m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Good

    6: 0-0-0

  • Going Heavy

    23: 3-0-2

  • Going Soft

    4: 0-0-0

Last starts

  1. 6Te Aroha2200m18 Sept 2026 · Rating 60 HCP · HEAVY108.15L
  2. 7Te Aroha2200m3 Sept 2026 · Rating 65 Benchmark* · HEAVY89.64L
  3. 9Otaki2100m30 July 2026 · Benchmark 65 · HEAVY108.9L
  4. 5Avondale1600m15 July 2026 · Rating 65 Benchmark* · HEAVY101.9L
  5. 4Te Aroha2200m21 June 2026 · Rating 65 Benchmark* · HEAVY105.99L
  6. 6Cambridge Synthetic2000m3 June 2026 · Rating 78 Benchmark* · SYNTHETIC6.2L
  7. 11Rotorua2200m9 May 2026 · Rating 65 Benchmark* · HEAVY916.76L
  8. 5Rotorua1560m22 Apr 2026 · Rating 75 Benchmark* · HEAVY1012.51L

Insights

  • Jockey ROI

    Positive

    Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 28% in Last 100 Rides

  • Fast Early

    Positive

    Sectionals suggest goes hard early

  • Win Drought

    Negative

    Not won for a while

  • Down In Weight

    Positive

    Drops 13kg from LS run

Comments

ILB

Jumped at $5.50 and weakened to finish 6th last start at Te Aroha and competing in a more challenging class. Should muster plenty of early toe. Could feature here.

RSIS

Odds of 9/2 and gave away some ground when 6th last start at Te Aroha on a heavy rated track and up against a higher level of opposition. Betting is the best guide.

14IzolaJ: Matthew Cameron·T: Ms K A Hoskin654kg9 11 13 8 1314: 1-0-1Izola win20.00Izola place4.60

Career

14: 1-0-1

Rating · IRD

70

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey40%
  • Trainer40%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo50%
  • Early Speed80%
  • Rating20%
  • Closing Speed20%

Record

  • First-up

    4: 0-0-0

  • Second-up

    3: 0-0-0

  • Third-up

    2: 1-0-0

  • Fourth-up

    2: 0-0-0

  • Track Ballarat

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Sale

    1: 1-0-0

  • Track Seymour

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1400m

    3: 0-0-1

  • Distance 1500m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1950m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Good

    6: 0-0-1

  • Going Heavy

    3: 0-0-0

  • Going Soft

    4: 1-0-0

Last starts

  1. 13Te Rapa1600m13 Sept 2026 · Rating 65 Benchmark* · HEAVY816.65L
  2. 8Ruakaka1400m2 Sept 2026 · RTG 60 HCP · SOFT65.8L
  3. 13Avondale1600m15 July 2026 · Rating 65 Benchmark* · HEAVY1029.9L
  4. 11Te Aroha1400m5 July 2026 · Rating 65 Benchmark* · HEAVY97.61L
  5. 9Yarra Valley1950m7 Feb 2026 · BM56 · GOOD421.7L
  6. 11Werribee1429m12 Jan 2026 · BM56 · GOOD38.8L
  7. 5Sandown2400m3 Sept 2025 · 3yo+ · GOOD37.3L
  8. 4Sandown2100m13 Aug 2025 · 3yo+ · SOFT50.6L

Insights

  • Trainer SR

    Negative

    Kylie Hoskin striking at just 7%

  • Gave ground LS

    Negative

    Faded towards the finish last time out

  • Up In Dist

    Positive

    Racing at a more suitable distance

  • Blinkers Off

    Positive

    Blinkers coming off this start

  • Imprv Needed

    Negative

    Would need to lift here to feature

Comments

ILB

Started $51.00 and faded away to finish 13th last run at Te Rapa on a heavy rated track. Can't entertain a bet.

RSIS

Started 50/1 and tailed off to finish 13th last start at Te Rapa.

15MelkorJ: Joe Doyle·T: G A & D G Rogerson & Clint Isdale556.5kg10 2 5 8 520: 1-1-4Melkor win20.00Melkor place4.60

Career

20: 1-1-4

Rating · IRD

83

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey80%
  • Trainer40%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo50%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating60%
  • Closing Speed40%

Record

  • First-up

    2: 0-0-1

  • Second-up

    1: 0-0-1

  • Third-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Fourth-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Avondale

    1: 0-0-1

  • Track Ellerslie

    2: 0-0-0

  • Track Trentham

    1: 0-0-1

  • Distance 1600m

    3: 0-0-2

  • Distance 1800m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 2000m

    9: 1-1-1

  • Going Good

    2: 0-0-0

  • Going Heavy

    6: 0-0-2

  • Going Soft

    5: 0-0-1

Last starts

  1. 5Cambridge Synthetic2000m30 Sept 2026 · BENCHMARK 60 · GOOD32L
  2. 8Te Rapa2400m22 Aug 2026 · Rating 65 Benchmark* · SOFT67.37L
  3. 5Cambridge Synthetic2000m7 Aug 2026 · Rating 60 HCP · SYNTHETIC6.47L
  4. 2Cambridge Synthetic2000m29 July 2026 · Rating 72 Benchmark · SYNTHETIC1.86L
  5. 10Cambridge Synthetic2000m9 July 2026 · Rating 66 Benchmark* · SYNTHETIC8.18L
  6. 3Cambridge Synthetic2000m17 June 2026 · Rating 60 HCP · SYNTHETIC3.03L
  7. 4Cambridge Synthetic2000m3 June 2026 · Rating 78 Benchmark* · SYNTHETIC4.5L
  8. 8Ellerslie2100m23 May 2026 · Rating 65 Benchmark* · SOFT58.52L

Insights

  • Jockey ROI

    Positive

    Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 34% in Last 100 Rides

  • Win Drought

    Negative

    Not won for a while

Comments

ILB

Odds of $9.00 and couldn't maintain the pace when 5th last start at Cambridge Synthetic and racing against tougher rivals. Watch for a sign in the market.

RSIS

Odds of 8/1 and folded up in the straight when 5th last run at Cambridge Synthetic and competing at a higher level of competition. Watch for a sign in the market.

Odds correct as at 11:10 am AEDT. Odds can change.