Week 4 brings a big test early on Monday morning as the Washington Commanders play host to the Indianapolis Colts at 12:30 am AEDT on Mon, 5 Oct. Both franchises are looking for a spark after tricky starts to the campaign, making this a crucial clash on the board.

If you are searching for the top nfl tips this week, the numbers jump off the page right away. Washington enters with a 1-2 overall record, while the Colts are still chasing their first victory of the season at 0-2-1.

Who will win? Head-to-head breakdown

The Head to Head market has the Indianapolis Colts installed as 1.45 favourites, with the Washington Commanders sitting at 2.78. Both sides have faced tough sledding in recent outings as they look to turn their momentum around.

Washington's last start ended in a heavy 41–3 defeat on the road against the Baltimore Ravens on 29 August. That followed a tight 17–13 away loss to the Detroit Lions on 23 August. Overall, Washington has put up 36 points while conceding 65 across their three games, leaving them with a point differential of -29.

The Colts are coming off a 25–16 loss at home against Detroit on 30 August, which followed a 34–6 home defeat against Atlanta on 23 August. Indy has scored 35 points and surrendered 72 for a -37 differential across their three matches. However, the Colts hold an undefeated road record of 0-0-1 compared to their 0-2 home record. With Washington priced as underdogs despite holding a win this season, backing the Colts at 1.45 rates a real chance if they can sharpen their execution.

Head to HeadOdds correct as at 11:13 am AEST. Odds can change.
Washington Commanders2.45Our tipIndianapolis Colts1.56
Solid tickOur tip: Indianapolis Colts. The Colts enter as 1.45 favourites against a Washington side coming off a 38-point loss in their last start.

Tipped at $1.45 (1:14 am AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Head-to-head context

Season and last-five scoring — context for the match-winner market.

12Season avg points for17.5
21.7Season avg points against36
33%Season win rate0%
8Last 2 avg points for11
0%Last-five win rate0%

Line angle: Crucial spread

The Line market sets the home spread at +4.5 points for the Washington Commanders at 1.90, while the Indianapolis Colts lay -4.5 points at 1.90.

Washington's lone victory this season came on their home turf, where they hold a 1-0 record compared to 0-2 on the road. Given that both teams are coming off recent losses and averaging low total scores—36 points for Washington and 35 for Indianapolis across their games—getting a +4.5 point cushion on the home underdog is a stat angle that gives Washington a big tick.

LineOdds correct as at 11:13 am AEST. Odds can change.
Our tipWashington Commanders +3.51.80Indianapolis Colts -3.52.00
Solid tickOur tip: Washington Commanders +4.5. Washington holds a 1-0 record at home this season and taking +4.5 points on their home track rates a real chance.

Tipped at $1.90 (1:14 am AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Line cover (form)

Cover rate applies this match's live spread to recent completed scores — not a season ATS record.

Washington Commanders+3.5last 2

Cover rate0%0/2
Avg margin (-21)avg -21vs -3.5
-251

Indianapolis Colts-3.5last 2

Cover rate0%0/2
0%Cover % (form)0%