Quarter-final action heats up this Friday, 21 August at 8:00 am AEST as Tommy Paul takes on Flavio Cobolli. If you are hunting for sharp tennis tips ahead of this clash, the numbers say we have an intriguing battle on our hands between two top-25 stars.

Cobolli comes into this contest with serious momentum after stringing together three consecutive victories, culminating in a win over Rafael Jodar on 20 August. On the flip side, Paul is looking to bounce back after falling to Learner Tien in his last start on 8 August.

Who Wins The Quarter-Final Clash?

Paul carries an impressive 36-15 record for the year with a 71% win rate, holding current world rank 24. That strong campaign sees him posted as the 1.56 head-to-head favourite. However, Cobolli's recent form jumps off the page, and the Italian sits higher in the world rankings at number 10 with 3,330 ranking points.

Head-to-head stats also favour the Italian. Cobolli defeated Paul in their only previous clash back in August 2024 (6 4 7-2 6 5). Priced at 2.45 in match betting, Cobolli rates a real chance to pull off another upset here.

Head to HeadOdds correct as at 5:12 am AEST. Odds can change.
Taylor Fritz1.65Our tipFrancisco Cerundolo2.25
Solid tickOur tip: Flavio Cobolli. Cobolli enters on a three-match win streak and holds a 1-0 career head-to-head record over Paul.

Tipped at $2.45 (1:12 pm AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Head-to-head context

1–0

Taylor Fritz vs Francisco Cerundolo

Clay1-0
100%1st set → match win % (H2H)0%
100%Deciding set win % (H2H)0%
83%1st serve points won %68%
39%Return points won %31%

Set Handicap Analysis

The set handicap market places Tommy Paul at -1.5 sets (2.45) and Flavio Cobolli at +1.5 sets (1.50). Getting a set start on Cobolli gets a big tick given his recent form across his last three outings.

Cobolli has been locked in on court, securing wins against Miomir Kecmanovic, Alexander Blockx, and Rafael Jodar in rapid succession. Paul's quality is unquestioned with 241 career wins, but Cobolli taking at least one set looks like a very competitive option.

SetsOdds correct as at 5:12 am AEST. Odds can change.
Taylor Fritz -1.52.60Our tipFrancisco Cerundolo +1.51.45
Big tickOur tip: Flavio Cobolli +1.5. Cobolli's strong recent form and previous win over Paul make him well-suited to cover the +1.5 set line.

Tipped at $1.50 (1:12 pm AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Set handicap (±1.5) form

−1.5 cover = won by two or more sets. Charts use recent completed scorelines.

Taylor Fritzlast 5

−1.5 cover rate80%4/5
+1.5 cover rate100%5/5
Straight-sets wins80%4/5

Francisco Cerundololast 5

−1.5 cover rate20%1/5
+1.5 cover rate60%3/5
Straight-sets wins20%1/5
80%−1.5 cover % (form)20%
H2H −1.5 cover (Taylor Fritz)0%0/1

Total Games Breakdown

The total line for this quarter-final is set at 23.5 games, with Over priced at 1.95 and Under at 1.85. Both players possess plenty of quality, and their sole career meeting went to three hard-fought sets.

With Cobolli winning three on the bounce and Paul boasting 36 victories this season, this matchup has all the hallmarks of a tight battle that could easily extend past the 23.5 games mark.

GamesOdds correct as at 5:12 am AEST. Odds can change.
Our tipOver 23.51.90Under 23.51.90
Solid tickOur tip: Over 23.5. Given their previous three-set meeting and strong seasonal form, this contest rates a solid chance to go over 23.5 games.

Tipped at $1.95 (1:12 pm AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Match total games

Average games from recent scorelines · marker shows live line 23.5.

Taylor Fritz matches (n=5)avg 23.4vs 23.5
1934
Francisco Cerundolo matches (n=5)avg 30vs 23.5
1934
H2H meetings (n=1)avg 25vs 23.5
1934

Hit rate vs 23.5

Taylor Fritzn=5
Over 40%Under 60%
Francisco Cerundolon=5
Over 60%Under 40%
H2Hn=1
Over 100%Under 0%
15Avg games won (form)14.6