A huge Fourth Round ATP battle is on deck as Tommy Paul locks horns with Carlos Alcaraz on Mon, 7 Sept, 7:00 am AEST. Both players bring serious quality to the court, but one stat jumps off the page immediately: Carlos Alcaraz boasts an astonishing 25-3 YTD record with an 89% YTD win percentage.

If you are looking for reliable tennis tips, this matchup offers plenty of statistical angles. Tommy Paul has carved out a solid 39-16 YTD record of his own, making this a high-octane fourth-round clash you cannot miss.

Who Will Win? Alcaraz Holds the Edge

The numbers say Carlos Alcaraz comes into this contest with huge momentum. Rank 3 in the world with 27 career titles under his belt, Alcaraz is coming off a victory against Yibing Wu on Sat, 5 Sept, extending a five-match winning run.

Tommy Paul sits at rank 21 with 5 career titles and is coming off a win on Mon, 31 Aug. While Paul has enjoyed a strong season with a 71% YTD win percentage, the head-to-head history gives Alcaraz a clear upper hand.

Across their career meetings, Alcaraz leads the head-to-head record 2-6 overall, including a 2-3 mark on hard courts. Head-to-head market prices reflect that advantage, with Carlos Alcaraz listed at 1.17 to win and Tommy Paul at 5.1.

Head to Head
Odds correct as at . Odds can change.
Nuno Borges$3.29Our tipNovak Djokovic$1.34
Big tickOur tip: Carlos Alcaraz. Carlos Alcaraz carries an outstanding 25-3 YTD record and leads the head-to-head series 2-6 against Tommy Paul.

Tipped at $1.17 · . Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Head-to-head context

0–1

Nuno Borges vs Novak Djokovic

Indoor0-1
0%1st set → match win % (H2H)100%
0%Deciding set win % (H2H)0%
68%1st serve points won %86%
20%Return points won %36%

Set Handicap: Spotting the Edge

The set line for this clash is set at 1.5 sets. Tommy Paul +1.5 sets sits at 2.75, while Carlos Alcaraz -1.5 sets is posted at 1.45.

Alcaraz took out their most recent meeting in Jan 2026 and has won five straight matches on his overall form card. Given his ability to dictate play against top opposition, Carlos Alcaraz -1.5 sets rates a real chance to deliver.

Sets
Odds correct as at . Odds can change.
Nuno Borges +1.5$1.75Our tipNovak Djokovic -1.5$2.00
Solid tickOur tip: Carlos Alcaraz -1.5. Riding a five-match winning run, Carlos Alcaraz rates a real chance to cover the -1.5 set spread.

Tipped at $1.45 · . Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Set handicap (±1.5) form

−1.5 cover = won by two or more sets. Charts use recent completed scorelines.

Nuno Borgeslast 5

−1.5 cover rate40%2/5
+1.5 cover rate80%4/5
Straight-sets wins40%2/5

Novak Djokoviclast 5

−1.5 cover rate20%1/5
+1.5 cover rate80%4/5
Straight-sets wins0%0/5
40%−1.5 cover % (form)20%
H2H −1.5 cover (Nuno Borges)0%0/1

Total Games: Breaking Down 35.5 Games

The totals market is set at 35.5 games, with the Over available at 1.85 and the Under priced at 1.95.

Both competitors feature powerful baseline games. Alcaraz holds a career win percentage of 82%, while Paul maintains a 61% career win rate. Past encounters between these two have produced intense, multi-set duels, giving the Over 35.5 games a big tick.

Games
Odds correct as at . Odds can change.
Our tipOver 22.5$1.85Under 22.5$1.95
Solid tickOur tip: Over 35.5. Their head-to-head history points to competitive battles, making Over 35.5 games a solid selection.

Tipped at $1.85 · . Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Match total games

Average games from recent scorelines · marker shows live line 22.5.

Nuno Borges matches (n=5)avg 26.6vs 22.5
1840
Novak Djokovic matches (n=5)avg 41vs 22.5
1840
H2H meetings (n=1)avg 23vs 22.5
1840

Hit rate vs 22.5

Nuno Borgesn=5
Over 60%Under 40%
Novak Djokovicn=5
Over 100%Under 0%
H2Hn=1
Over 100%Under 0%
12.6Avg games won (form)19.8