Third-round action gets underway this Tuesday, 18 Aug at 1:30 pm AEST, with World No. 24 Tommy Paul taking on World No. 70 Adolfo Daniel Vallejo. Paul brings 34 YTD wins and five career titles into this matchup, while Vallejo arrives with consecutive victories under his belt. If you are chasing top tennis betting tips for this ATP clash, the numbers offer plenty of value on the board.

With both players bringing distinct edges into this clash, we break down the head-to-head form, set handicap, and total games market to deliver punchy picks.

Who Will Win the Match?

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo comes into this Third Round contest on the back of a last-start win against Valentin Vacherot on 16 Aug, preceded by a victory over Kyrian Jacquet on 15 Aug. The Paraguayan holds a 12-9 record this season and a 58% career win rate. On the head-to-head board, Vallejo sits as the 1.56 favourite to claim victory.

Tommy Paul is coming off a last-start loss to Learner Tien on 8 Aug, but his broader season numbers jump off the page. The American holds a 34-15 record in 2026 (69% win rate) alongside a 239-153 career record. Paul also leads the direct head-to-head matchup 1-0, having defeated Vallejo in their single prior meeting in April 2026. At 2.45 to win head-to-head, Paul rates a real chance as an underdog given his higher rank and career background.

Head to HeadOdds correct as at 11:12 am AEST. Odds can change.
Luca Van Assche2.78Our tipAleksandar Kovacevic1.45
Solid tickOur tip: Adolfo Daniel Vallejo. Vallejo comes in with momentum after back-to-back victories and holds favourite status on the match-winner market.

Tipped at $1.56 (5:12 pm AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Head-to-head context

0–0

Luca Van Assche vs Aleksandar Kovacevic

100%1st set → match win % (form)50%
100%Deciding set win % (form)50%

Set Handicap Outlook

Looking at the set handicap market, the line is set at 1.5 sets. Tommy Paul with a +1.5 set handicap sits at 1.55, while Adolfo Daniel Vallejo laying -1.5 sets is priced at 2.35.

With Paul winning 69% of his matches this season and holding the 1-0 head-to-head advantage, backing Paul +1.5 sets gets a big tick for consistency in what promises to be a tight battle.

SetsOdds correct as at 11:12 am AEST. Odds can change.
Our tipLuca Van Assche +1.51.60Aleksandar Kovacevic -1.52.20
Big tickOur tip: Tommy Paul +1.5. Paul holds a 34-15 record this season and won their previous head-to-head meeting, making the +1.5 set line a strong option.

Tipped at $1.55 (5:12 pm AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Set handicap (±1.5) form

−1.5 cover = won by two or more sets. Charts use recent completed scorelines.

Luca Van Asschelast 5

−1.5 cover rate60%3/5
+1.5 cover rate80%4/5
Straight-sets wins60%3/5

Aleksandar Kovaceviclast 5

−1.5 cover rate20%1/5
+1.5 cover rate60%3/5
Straight-sets wins20%1/5
60%−1.5 cover % (form)20%

Total Games Analysis

The Total Games line is set at 23.5 games, with the Over at 1.95 and the Under at 1.85.

Vallejo's recent wins over Vacherot and Jacquet were settled in straight sets, keeping those contests relatively brief. With their past meeting also going in Paul's favour, under 23.5 games rates a strong look on the board.

GamesOdds correct as at 11:12 am AEST. Odds can change.
Over 23.52.00Our tipUnder 23.51.80
Solid tickOur tip: Under 23.5. Vallejo's recent wins have featured low total set counts, making Under 23.5 games rate a solid chance.

Tipped at $1.85 (5:12 pm AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Match total games

Average games from recent scorelines · marker shows live line 23.5.

Luca Van Assche matches (n=5)avg 22.6vs 23.5
1829
Aleksandar Kovacevic matches (n=5)avg 25vs 23.5
1829

Hit rate vs 23.5

Luca Van Asschen=5
Over 40%Under 60%
Aleksandar Kovacevicn=5
Over 40%Under 60%
12.2Avg games won (form)11.2