What a contest we have lined up for this ATP second-round clash! Italian star Matteo Berrettini takes on Argentina's Mariano Navone, with action kicking off at 4:00 am AEST on Thursday, 3 Sept. If you are looking for top-tier insight and tennis predictions ahead of this fixture, the stats board delivers pure fuel for this match-up.

The numbers jump off the page immediately. Berrettini boasts an impressive 64% career win percentage with 226 career wins under his belt, while Navone enters this clash right after knocking off Novak Djokovic in his last start on 31 August. Both players come into this second-round contest with serious momentum!

Who Will Win? Head-To-Head Breakdown

In the head-to-head market, Berrettini is posted at 1.52, while Navone is priced at 2.55. Berrettini comes into this contest off a last-start victory over Stan Wawrinka on 1 September, holding a 16-13 YTD record (55% win rate) and a current rank of 43. He has collected 10 career titles and hit a best rank of 6 in his career.

Navone is no push-over though. Fresh off that standout last-start win against Novak Djokovic on 31 August, the Argentine holds a 22-20 YTD record (52% win rate) and sits at current rank 49. In previous meetings, Navone claimed a victory over Berrettini in August 2026, though Berrettini previously beat Navone in April 2025 and April 2024. The numbers say Berrettini's big-stage pedigree gives him the edge, and he rates a real chance to advance.

Head to HeadOdds correct as at 6:37 am AEST. Odds can change.
Our tipMatteo Berrettini1.58Mariano Navone2.40
Solid tickOur tip: Matteo Berrettini. Berrettini brings a 64% career win percentage and 226 career victories into this second-round encounter, rating a real chance.

Tipped at $1.52 (10:29 am AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Head-to-head context

2–1

Matteo Berrettini vs Mariano Navone

Hard0-1
Clay2-0
100%1st set → match win % (H2H)50%
50%Deciding set win % (H2H)50%
72%1st serve points won %63%
42%Return points won %35%

Set Handicap Analysis

The line board has Berrettini laying -1.5 sets at 2.00, while Navone gets the +1.5 sets start at 1.80. Navone's proven ability to push top-tier opponents—evident in his recent win over Djokovic—makes the set handicap a fascinating battleground.

With Navone already claiming a head-to-head win over Berrettini in August 2026, taking a set is well within his reach. Navone +1.5 sets gets a big tick for punters expecting another tight contest.

SetsOdds correct as at 6:37 am AEST. Odds can change.
Matteo Berrettini -1.52.05Our tipMariano Navone +1.51.75
Solid tickOur tip: Mariano Navone +1.5. Navone is fresh off a last-start victory against Novak Djokovic and previously defeated Berrettini in August 2026.

Tipped at $1.80 (10:29 am AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Set handicap (±1.5) form

−1.5 cover = won by two or more sets. Charts use recent completed scorelines.

Matteo Berrettinilast 5

−1.5 cover rate20%1/5
+1.5 cover rate100%5/5
Straight-sets wins20%1/5

Mariano Navonelast 5

−1.5 cover rate20%1/5
+1.5 cover rate40%2/5
Straight-sets wins20%1/5
20%−1.5 cover % (form)20%
H2H −1.5 cover (Matteo Berrettini)33%1/3

Total Games Line

The total games market is set at 38.5 games, with both Over 38.5 and Under 38.5 sitting at 1.90. Navone's last outing on 31 August was an absolute epic through the set scores, and Berrettini's last-start win over Wawrinka on 1 September also saw extended sets.

Past clashes between these two right-handers have gone the distance, indicating plenty of game volume. Over 38.5 games looks like a strong angle as both players fight for a spot in the next round.

GamesOdds correct as at 6:37 am AEST. Odds can change.
Our tipOver 38.51.85Under 38.51.95
Solid tickOur tip: Over 38.5. Both players enter off impressive last-start wins and past battles suggest a long, tightly contested match.

Tipped at $1.90 (10:29 am AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Match total games

Average games from recent scorelines · marker shows live line 38.5.

Matteo Berrettini matches (n=5)avg 34vs 38.5
2240
Mariano Navone matches (n=5)avg 26vs 38.5
2240
H2H meetings (n=3)avg 27vs 38.5
2240

Hit rate vs 38.5

Matteo Berrettinin=5
Over 20%Under 80%
Mariano Navonen=5
Over 20%Under 80%
H2Hn=3
Over 0%Under 100%
17Avg games won (form)12.4